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Post by sharksrog on Apr 30, 2013 18:29:47 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on May 1, 2013 9:33:17 GMT -5
Not sure why Blackburn is #1 on their list. Seems like they're basing the order far too much on just what the numbers show so far this early in the season. Crick is #1 until there's a noticeable decline.
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Post by sharksrog on May 1, 2013 12:19:53 GMT -5
I agree with you here, Boagie, but let's not forget that these lists are subjective, and they can vary quite a bit from one source to another.
But Blackburn has seemingly been helped as much so far this season as any Giants prospect, and Gary Brown has likely been hurt the most.
Brown is 0 for 15 and down to .180. His great speed could be a tremendous asset in center field at AT&T, but he's going to have to hit a little.
Blackburn got pounded around a little bit last night, and his ERA is up to 2.57. He has yielded 8 earned runs in his last 11 innings. His 33/4 K/BB ratio is still outstanding.
After a slow start, Joe Panik is hitting .486 over his past 10 games and is now .320 on the season. Modest afoot and of arm, Joe is being shifted from shortstop to second base this season.
In his 22-year-old season, Panik's numbers compare favorably with those of present Giants keystoner Marco Scutaro at the same age. Both players struck out little and walked quite a bit. Scutaro struck out 71 times in 462 at bats, while Panik has fanned only 9 times in 97 at bats.
Scutaro has become one of the best contact hitters in baseball. Panik would seem to have the same capabilities. Scutaro did enjoy a large speed advantage and was able to remain at shortstop.
Giants top catching prospect Andrew Susac has also helped himself this season. Susac batted only .244 last season in San Jose, but is hitting a robust .290 with an .895 OPS at Richmond this year.
I won't go into the details, but the Giants' pitching remains its strongest suit in the minors. Still, look for Panik, Susac and likely Brown within two years.
As we discussed yesterday, Francisco Peguero may be knocking on the Giants' door NOW. He is now 12 for 23 since his return a week ago from injury and his hitting .443 at Fresno. I haven't been his biggest fan, but there is no denying he is having a spectacular season thus far. His high average has been aided by cutting his strikeouts down to just 8 in 61 at bats.
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Post by Islandboagie on May 1, 2013 16:16:14 GMT -5
Rog- I agree with you here, Boagie, but let's not forget that these lists are subjective, and they can vary quite a bit from one source to another.
Boagie- My point is that numbers can be very misleading for prospects. Your link seems to be really focusing in on the numbers this season, without any actual scouting involved. Prospects aren't based on who's the best right now, it's based on what they could be when it finally clicks. If it was just about numbers, Brett Pill would be our #1 prospect.
Blackburn has certainly climbed the ladder, but I doubt the Giants organization looks at him as the #1 guy. Just my opinion.
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Post by sharksrog on May 2, 2013 13:19:51 GMT -5
It is hard to know which prospect the Giants themselves would consider to be #1.
Going back a couple of seasons, it almost certainly would have been either Gary Brown or Zack Wheeler. When Wheeler was traded for Carlos Beltran, I suspect Brown stood all alone, with Joe Panik #2.
Since then the Giants have drafted some very nice pitching prospects, and I was somewhat surprised that many thought some of them had surpassed the top two position prospects. I really didn't even know much about Clayton Blackburn, although I did know about Kyle Krick.
Has the ranking of the prospects changed so far this season? Probably only slightly as far as the Giants are concerned. As for Bleacher Report, well, they can't keep having the same prospect rating week after week and month after month, can they?
I was just happy to see an updated prospect list. A lot of sources put them out just once a year, or maybe twice.
Blackburn was considered the more advanced prospect between him and Crick, but Kyle was seen as having a higher ceiling. I doubt that has changed.
The guy who may have dropped a notch or two on the ladder is Brown. When you're hitting .180 and have stolen only one base in four attempts, it is hard to continue to be rated near the top.
I hope Bleacher Report continues to come out with an updated prospect list on a monthly basis. As you point out, they may be overreacting to recent events, but at least it gives us an idea of the possible fluidity of the situation.
Remember, even scouts have significant differences of opinions about players. A year ago, Brown, for instance, was considered to be anywhere from a potential start to a potential fourth outfielder. Now that range might have dropped from above-average outfielder to fifth outfielder.
At least one scout has cited mechanical flaws in Brown's swing. That side appears to be showing up more and more, although it should also be pointed out that Brown rebounded nicely from a slow start at Richmond last season.
This season though, Brown is actually down to .173, hitless in his last 19 at bats, and with only four hits in his last 10 games. As you know, I'm big on K/BB ratio, and Brown has just 7 walks to go with his 23 strikeouts. Those 23 strikeouts have come in just 103 at bats, which is disturbing for a leadoff man.
I didn't really follow the Giants' prospects very closely until Tim Lincecum. But for those who like to plan or to anticipate the future, it's a lot of fun.
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