sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 18, 2013 15:43:54 GMT -5
Everyone who knows me knows I hate preaseason projections with 19 passions. There are simply too many variables, and some that we will know about until later, to be able to predict to a reasonable degree of accuracy, the numbers a player is about to put up.
However, I think it's fun to predict whether a player will have a better or worse year overall than the one he had previously. I wont do the entire roster but I'll pick out much of the core players and tell you if I think you will see improvement. With the players that came in midseason, I will say whether their 2013 numbers will be better than their full 2012 stats...not just those after they were acquired by the Giants and not including postseason for anyone.
Better Belt Sandoval Pence Torres Blanco Crawford Lincecum Bumgarner Zito
Worse Posey Scutaro Pagan Romo Mijares Kontos
About the same Cain Vogey Casilla Lopez Affeldt
I wonder how many we can get right in the different categories. Play along if you like.
~Dood
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 18, 2013 21:40:17 GMT -5
I think Scutaro will be slightly better than he was all last season, but obviously not as good as he was with the Giants.
Pence will be the exact opposite, I think he'll put up better numbers as a Giant but likely end up with less homeruns and rbis for the year.
Posey had an MVP season so it would be a safe bet to say he won't be as good, but at the same time he was coming off an injury and was basically in his sophomore season. Two situations that historically dont bode well for players, and he won the MVP, batting title and led his team to another World Series. His "hot streak" during the second half was too long for me to consider it just a streak. His average might not be as high this season, but he could tally more hrs and rbis.
If you don't mind, Randy, I'd like to add a few over/under questions to the list.
Pablo 130 games played?
Over/under 1 gold glove for the team defensively?
Tim Lincecum 200 Ks? and over/under 3.00 ERA?
Brandon Belt 15 homeruns?
Finally, Giants over/under 94 wins?
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 19, 2013 23:41:46 GMT -5
I like Randy's list, although I think Zito will decline. I doubt Crawford will improve, and I think both Lopez and Affeldt will decline. I think Casilla will decline.
I'm not liking the implications for the bullpen here, although I hadn't been worried much about it before. Probably not as good, but still decent.
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 19, 2013 23:43:48 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 20, 2013 9:46:39 GMT -5
Rog- Over/under 1 gold glove for the team defensively? Under
Brandon Belt 15 homeruns? Over
Boagie- I think these two might effect eachother. If Belt does hit over 15 homeruns he will solidify his spot at first base and have a fair shot at the gold glove. I have to believe Crawford, Blanco, and Posey also have a legitimate shot at winning a gold glove at their positions. Although Posey's chance depends alot on a decline from Yadier Molina.
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 20, 2013 10:29:14 GMT -5
Rog- Over/under 1 gold glove for the team defensively? Under Brandon Belt 15 homeruns? Over Boagie- I think these two might effect eachother. If Belt does hit over 15 homeruns he will solidify his spot at first base and have a fair shot at the gold glove. I have to believe Crawford, Blanco, and Posey also have a legitimate shot at winning a gold glove at their positions. Although Posey's chance depends alot on a decline from Yadier Molina. Rog -- All well put. The Gold Glove is far more a popularity contest than the Fielding Bible Awards you criticized. It is said that players get their first Gold Glove a year after they should receive one, and they get one a year later than they should. Based on that, I don't think any of the Giants will make it. Buster has the popularity, but in Molina he also has the biggest obstacle, pretty much both literally and figuratively. If Molina is perceived to have fallen off appreciably -- probably with the bat as well as the glove -- Buster could have a shot, although the Reds' Ryan Hanigan may actually be the better defender of the two. Crawford could have a shot, but he likely would have to hit pretty well. Belt just doesn't seem to have established himself enough, and his defense does still have a few rough edges. Blanco may be the best defender of the group, and in left field his average arm strength will play a lot better than it did in right field last season. But wiill Blanco have the playing time and offensive success that seems to be necessary to win the award? I'm taking the under this year, but I will go on record as predicting the Giants' players will win two Gold Gloves in 2014. Give me the under for this year, but the over for next. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1567&page=1#9017#ixzz2LS9fd2jk
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 20, 2013 10:36:16 GMT -5
Regarding Belt's 15 home runs, thus far in his career he has 16 homers in 598 at bats. Based on playing a full season as a starter, Brandon has been pretty close to the necessary pace already.
One thing about Belt is that he hits his homers in bunches more than just about anyone I know.
Of Brandon's 9 homers last season, two came in one game, and three others came in three straight games. Of Brandon's 7 homers in 2011, three came in three consecutive games.
If the Banana Man has several bunches in 2013, he could easily eclipse 15.
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 20, 2013 10:43:59 GMT -5
Here's an over/under for Tim Lincecum this season: 13 wins. For Buster Posey: .315. 26 homers. For Gregor Blanco: 95 starts.
For Brandon Crawford: .250. For Pablo Sandoval: 135 games. For Hunter Pence: .280 average. For Marco Scutaro: .285 average.
For Madison Bumgarner: 3.05 ERA. For Ryan Vogelsong: 3.30 ERA.
For me: 396, 482 posts.
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 21, 2013 14:06:07 GMT -5
Here's an over/under for Tim Lincecum this season: 13 wins. Boagie- over For Buster Posey: .315. 26 homers. Boagie- under avg, over hrs For Gregor Blanco: 95 starts. Boagie- over For Brandon Crawford: .250. Boagie- slightly over For Pablo Sandoval: 135 games. Boagie- over (optimistic) For Hunter Pence: .280 average. Boagie- under For Marco Scutaro: .285 average. Boagie- over For Madison Bumgarner: 3.05 ERA. Boagie- under For Ryan Vogelsong: 3.30 ERA. Boagie- under For me: 396, 482 posts. Boagie- this month?
I'm bad at over/under, I'm usually too optimistic. The only one that was automatic for me was Lincecum's wins.
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 21, 2013 15:13:32 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 21, 2013 15:23:01 GMT -5
I tried to quickly put up numbers that I thought would at least make us think. To the right of your picks, here are mine: Here's an over/under for Tim Lincecum this season: 13 wins. Boagie- over Rog -- Agree For Buster Posey: .315. 26 homers. Boagie- under avg, over hrs Rog -- Agree For Gregor Blanco: 95 starts. Boagie- over Rog -- Because of injuries and other possible factors, under -- but this one is tough. For Brandon Crawford: .250. Boagie- slightly over Rog -- under For Pablo Sandoval: 135 games. Boagie- over (optimistic) Rog -- Agree For Hunter Pence: .280 average. Boagie- under Rog -- over. Last season was only the 2nd of Hunter's career in which he hasn't hit at least .280. For Marco Scutaro: .285 average. Boagie- over Rog -- under. Tough one, since Marco has had the two highest BA's of his career the past two seasons. But those are the only two seasons of his career in which he has hit .285 or better. For Madison Bumgarner: 3.05 ERA. Boagie- under Rog -- Agree. I was going to go over on this one, but while his ERA has increased slightly, Mad Bum's WHIP has declined from 1.31 to 1.21 to 1.11. For Ryan Vogelsong: 3.30 ERA. Boagie- under Rog -- Over. Ryan was just over last season, and he's a year older this one. For me: 396, 482 posts. Boagie- this month? Rog -- Under. But just by a few. There are only 28 days this month. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1567&page=1#ixzz2LZBzOByO
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