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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 6, 2013 16:27:04 GMT -5
In a recent article in one of the Giant papers, the author was giving his opinions on how having Torres and Blanco in LF puts the Giants in a great position to take the west, and maybe the World Series again. He was focused on the runs that they PREVENTED from scoring.
A really good point when you contrast that with someone out there who can't cover his own shadow.
So I'm reading along, and wondering, as I did, what I titled this thread; Enough, or rationalization?
On the surface of what the author presented, I had to admit that having 4 outfielders who are CF out there everyday is pretty impressive.
Now to be fair, Pence is really not a great CF... but he does go get the ball on an above average level, and has played a lot of CF. And it's not like the guy is ancient.
On the flip side my logic argues; "can we generate enough offense with either Torres or Blanco in the 7 hole?" and I say, NO! Not just NO, but HECK NO! I don't CARE what we did with that line up in the post season.
DURING the 162 game grind, I'll think it'll hurt more than help.
Then I remembered a suggestion Rog had made which, at the time, I didn't care for.
But I've since given it a LOT more thought, and the more I think about it, the more sense it makes.
So much sense that I think we can count on Bochy and the Giants not doing it.
Hit Blanco/Torres 2 hole, and move Scutaro to 7 hole.
Why?
Though Marco has never been a big "RBI" guy, he's usually hit 2 hole, and they don't get that many opportunities.
Last year he drove in a career high 74
An anomoly, I agree, and not likely to be repeated.
But in the previous seasons when he's HAD 500 + at bats, 2008-09-010, he drove in 60-60 and 56.
Not shabby from the 2 hole.
From my observations, Marco understands how to not just move the runner along, but also how to get the guy's fanny across the plate.
No power, I agree, but I think WE'D be better served with the speed of Torres/Blanco in the 2 hole, and Marco who doesn't run as well, 7 hole.
Just my thoughts.
Blast away.
boly
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 6, 2013 19:12:48 GMT -5
Boly -- In a recent article in one of the Giant papers, the author was giving his opinions on how having Torres and Blanco in LF puts the Giants in a great position to take the west, and maybe the World Series again. He was focused on the runs that they PREVENTED from scoring. Rog -- As I mentioned in another post, it is tough to objectively and accurately judge both fielding and its effect on a season. But I think most would agree that Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres are among the best outfielders in the game. Furthermore, both are able to play each of the three outfield positions. Blanco/Torres aren't the traditional power-hitting corner outfielder, but each can get on base and run. Torres has a modicum of power. Putting two players together in a platoon can be an inexpensive way of manning a position in decent fashion. I would like it if the Giants were able to add a fifth outfielder with power. Because of Blanco/Torres, he wouldn't have to be a good fielder. And because the Giants' four outfielders as of now hit right-handed (Pence), left-handed (Blanco) and swith (Pagan and Torres), that power hitter could bat either righty or lefty. With the claim of Tony Abreu yesterday, the Giants could wind up with as many as five switch hitters -- Pagan, Torres, Sandoval, Hector Sanchez and Abreu. I'm not an Abreu fan, but he could stick. As for left field, the Giants are apparently going to approach it untraditionallly, but they still might be able to get at least adequate results. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1444#ixzz2KAPNwK5b |
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 6, 2013 19:33:47 GMT -5
Boly -- Hit Blanco/Torres 2 hole, and move Scutaro to 7 hole. Why? Though Marco has never been a big "RBI" guy, he's usually hit 2 hole, and they don't get that many opportunities. Last year he drove in a career high 74 An anomoly, I agree, and not likely to be repeated. But in the previous seasons when he's HAD 500 + at bats, 2008-09-010, he drove in 60-60 and 56. Not shabby from the 2 hole. From my observations, Marco understands how to not just move the runner along, but also how to get the guy's fanny across the plate. No power, I agree, but I think WE'D be better served with the speed of Torres/Blanco in the 2 hole, and Marco who doesn't run as well, 7 hole. Rog -- My first choice would be to at least look at leading off Blanco/Torres and having the harder-hitting Pagan bat second. But Angel had a lot of success leading off last season (which is somewhat ironic given that some thought he would balk at leading off). So I could see going either way (no pun on Pagan and Torres). As for Marco, the Giants didn't hit-and-run much with him. Given that he hits into quite a few double plays and is one of the best contact hitters around, I didn't quite understand why they didn't do so. If he's not going to hit-and-run, why not bat him lower where his experience might allow him to drive runners in? Last season Marco drove home 67 of 389 runners. By comparison, Buster Posey drove home 79 of 429 runners; Pablo Sandoval drove home 51 of 303; Hunter Pence drove home 80 of 505; and Brandon Belt drove home 49 of 330. With the exception of Buster, Marco drove in the highest percentage of runners. The Giants didn't run ahead of Marco as much as one would have thought. Pagan did have 12 of his 29 steals in August and September, but he also had 3 of his 7 caught stealings. I would probably have Marco bat sixth against southpaws and 7th against southpaws. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1444&page=1#ixzz2KASPSVpw |
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donk
New Member
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Post by donk on Feb 6, 2013 22:09:33 GMT -5
You miss the point...the Giants didn't run many hit and runs because they wanted Posey to steal bases and then Marco to advance him by hitting to right field....Marco does that job as if he was born into the role...he has the patience to take pitches to allow the runner to steal...and is able to hit with 2 strikes on him....I think marco was the ideal 2 hitter...I used to think Crawford would be good in that spot but the infield took away his hole in the infield between third and short .....I think Crawford had a quick bat on inside pitches but pitchers tend to pitch him outside....
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 7, 2013 10:43:04 GMT -5
From my observations, Marco understands how to not just move the runner along, but also how to get the guy's fanny across the plate.
No power, I agree, but I think WE'D be better served with the speed of Torres/Blanco in the 2 hole, and Marco who doesn't run as well, 7 hole.
Just my thoughts.
Blast away.
boly
Boagie- I agree with you here, Boly. Having Blanco bat 7th takes away his best offensive ability, which is finding ways to get on base and score runs. However, I think the Giants fell in love with having Pagan and Scutaro hit 1 and 2. In my opinion the best lineup would be: Blanco - Scutaro - Pagan - Posey - Sandoval - Pence - Belt - Crawford.
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donk
New Member
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Post by donk on Feb 7, 2013 15:00:44 GMT -5
You miss the point...the Giants didn't run many hit and runs because they wanted Posey to steal bases and then Marco to advance him by hitting to right field....Marco does that job as if he was born into the role...he has the patience to take pitches to allow the runner to steal...and is able to hit with 2 strikes on him....I think marco was the ideal 2 hitter...I used to think Crawford would be good in that spot but the infield took away his hole in the infield between third and short .....I think Crawford had a quick bat on inside pitches but pitchers tend to pitch him outside.... dk..of course, I meant Pagan to steal bases..... |
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 8, 2013 10:54:33 GMT -5
From my observations, Marco understands how to not just move the runner along, but also how to get the guy's fanny across the plate.
No power, I agree, but I think WE'D be better served with the speed of Torres/Blanco in the 2 hole, and Marco who doesn't run as well, 7 hole.
Just my thoughts.
Blast away.
boly
Boagie- I agree with you here, Boly. Having Blanco bat 7th takes away his best offensive ability, which is finding ways to get on base and score runs. However, I think the Giants fell in love with having Pagan and Scutaro hit 1 and 2. In my opinion the best lineup would be: Blanco - Scutaro - Pagan - Posey - Sandoval - Pence - Belt - Crawford.
boly says---
I'm not a fan of Pagan in the 3 hole, but I sure like that better than what Bochy is likely to do; same as he did last year, with Blanco/Torres 7.
To me, that's just not smart. No. I'll take it one step further. That line up borders on stupid, and does not make the most of the talent we have.
Blanco and Torres can RUN! 7 hole with Crawford and the pitcher to follow simply wastes that aspect of the game.
boly
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 8, 2013 12:44:20 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 8, 2013 13:02:09 GMT -5
Boly -- I'm not a fan of Pagan in the 3 hole Rog -- Nor am I. Angel isn't a good enough hitter to bat third. Buster and Pablo seem to be the Giants' two best hitters. Even though neither is a speed demon (to put it mildly), they probably should be hitting 3 and 4 between them. I think eventually Brandon Belt will hit well enough to hit 3rd and that if kept together, he, Buster and Pablo will occupy the 3,4 and 5 spots. If Hunter Pence hits to his career average rather than the shell he put up last season with the Giants, he too would probably be a better #3 hitter than Angel. In the #3 spot, you want a guy who can get on base and who can drive in runs. Angel's .340 career OBP is deficient in that regard, and he has driven in only one run per nine at bats. Batting leadoff more than in any other spot in the order has limited Angel's RBI opportunities, but he has hit 2nd, 5th or 6th more often than he has led off. Bobby Bonds also suffered in RBI opportunites, but he drove in a run every seven at bats even though more than half his plate appearances came in the leadoff slot, including once every eight at bats as a leadoff man. Angel has driven in a run as a leadoff man just once every 11 trips. Pence hasn't gotten on base any more often than Pagan, but he's driven in a run every six and a half at bats. Pablo gets on base better than any of the others except Buster, and drives in a run every seven at bats. Buster drives in a run every six at bats. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1444&page=1#ixzz2KKZcUWah |
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 8, 2013 13:52:03 GMT -5
Rog -- Nor am I. Angel isn't a good enough hitter to bat third. Buster and Pablo seem to be the Giants' two best hitters. Even though neither is a speed demon (to put it mildly), they probably should be hitting 3 and 4 between them.
Boagie- Probably true. Although Pagan did hit 5 points higher than Pablo did last year, has more speed and was able to accumulate more total bases and extra base hits last year than Pablo has had since 2009. I realize Pablo has had injury plagued seasons, but as far as consistency throughout a whole season, last year Angel actually proved to be the better of the two.
Batting Pagan 3rd isn't the best scenario to me. I like what you said about Belt. If Belt can generate consistent power he would be the best #3 hitter on the team. I'm inclined to want him there already just based on his obp alone, but Belt has more to learn before putting that kind of pressure on him.
Part of the reason I'd like Angel batting 3rd is because I am not convinced that Pence can protect Posey alone. Pablo and Pence would offer good protection behind Posey. Also, Pagan has more speed than Pablo and doesn't hit into as many double plays.
Blanco, Scutaro and Pagan would offer solid obp and speed ahead of Posey.
Sandwiching Posey between two switch hitters would also create alot of bullpen issues for the other team late in the game.
I don't believe the problem here is Pablo batting 3rd..it's the fact that we realize Pagan and Scutaro are perfect for the top of the order while also realizing Blanco is equally poor at the bottom of the order. Blanco's only major league offensive worthy ability is to get on base and run. That would suggest that he belongs toward the top.
So, what makes more sense... sacrificing one of these guys speed and ability to get on base and put them toward the bottom, or keeping all 3 at the top, and moving Pablo to the 5th spot, where his free swinging style would be more suited? Pablo 5th just seems like it makes the most sense to me.
That being said, none of this matters because we know what the lineup is going to be. It'll be a "if it aint broke don't fix it" situation. We won the World Series with Blanco batting 7th..I would be surprised if that changed starting in 2013.
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 8, 2013 14:10:06 GMT -5
Boly -- Blanco and Torres can RUN! 7 hole with Crawford and the pitcher to follow simply wastes that aspect of the game. Rog -- I have mixed feelings here. On the one hand, we don't want our 7th place hitter to get thrown out trying to steal and cause the pitcher to lead off the next inning or lose a sacrifice opportunity. On the other hand, if the 7th-place hitter reaches first base, his chances of scoring aren't very good. If he can steal second, they improve significantly. When it comes to stealing bases, Blanco and Torres succeed at a high percentage. That limits the times they will cause the pitcher to lead off an inning or miss a bunt opportunity. But their ability to steal can perhaps give them more MARGINAL runs than leading off. If the leadoff hitters gets to first base with no outs. They don't really have the need to steal as often. The 7th-place hitter can get to first base with no outs and not have a lot of chance to score. Last season Gregor scored 7 runs while batting 7th and reaching on 16 singles, 5 walks and 2 doublees. He scored just over 30% of the time (in a very small sample). He stole 3 bases. Brandon Belt also stole 3 bases while batting 7th, but he also reached base far more often and didn't score that many more times. Ignoring his homers, Brandon reached on 26 singles, 17 walks, 8 doubles and 2 triples. He scored 12 times, or a little less than 20%. The samples here are too small to be very meaningful, but it may be that speed is an important factor in the 7-hole. Remember too that in addition to stealing bases more often, the speedier Blanco was more likely to score on the shorter singles usually delivered by the 8th place hitter, the pitcher and the leadoff man. This sample is perhaps more meaningful. As a leadoff man, Blanco reached base with 50 singles, 40 walks, 9 doubles and 5 triples (not including home runs). He scored 40 times, or a little under 40% of the time. He did steal 21 bases. Even though Gregor stole bases effectively and efficiently, he didn't score as often as would be expected -- especially since we know he batted with no outs at least once a game. When Gregor led off an inning, he reached base via 28 singles, 16 walks, 5 doubles and 3 triples. He scored 31 times, or nearly 60% of the time. I can't find how often he stole a base (probably at least 10 times), but one can see how a guy leading off an inning scores a lot -- especially if he is batting ahead of the team's stop hitters. Gregor scored 45 of his 56 runs (82%) while batting first, even though he batted first in only 73% of his appearances. Brandon Belt scored 18 runs while leading off an inning. He reached base on 19 singles, 7 walks, 5 doubles and 2 triples. That's 55% of the time, or just about the same percentage as Gregor -- even though Brandon hit mostly 6th and 7th. Not quite sure what to make of this. So what does all this mean? As I mentioned at the beginning, I'm not quite sure. It does appear, though, that the primary reason a hitter such as Blanco not to bat 7th is because he isn't very good at driving in runs. He isn't fiercesome enough to keep a pitcher from pitching very carefully to the 6th place hitter. I have to say, though, that I would love to see a study of whether a base stealer helps his team more from the leadoff spot or from say 6th or 7th in the order. Because most leadoff hitters don't drive runs in well, I would say it is almost always leadoff. But if a base stealer can drive in runs a bit, I wonder if he doesn't help his team at least as much batting lower in the lineup than batting leadoff -- where he should score a lot of the time whether he steals a base or not. I'm wondering whether the most valuable spot for a base stealer -- assuming he's a good enough hitter to command the spot -- is batting 5th. There, he isn't likely to effect whether the pitcher leads off an inning or not, and the value of his base stealing should be highest when hitting in front of the least good hitters on the team. And the 5-hold doesn't hit in front of a lot of good hitters. And the best of the bunch -- the #6 hitter -- isn't likely to drive him home from first very often. When a batter reaches first base leading off an inning, he should score often -- especially if he has his team's best hitters coming up behind him. If the leadoff man reaches first base, he should score with as little as one hit and one productive out from three of the top hitters on the team. And that's without benefit of a stolen base. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1444&page=1#ixzz2KKdxqQtX |
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Post by sharksrog on Feb 8, 2013 14:36:20 GMT -5
Boagie -- I like what you said about Belt. If Belt can generate consistent power he would be the best #3 hitter on the team. Rog -- It was only one season, but Brandon hit very well in 2012 in both high- and medium-level situations. He had an .840 OPS in high-leverage situations, an .876 OPS in medium-leverage situations -- and just a .684 OPS in low-leverage spots. He actually has a similar pattern over his full career, although to a slightly lesser extent. Perhaps Brandon is already making progress to that third spot in the order. By the way, while he's certainly not a burner, he's a plenty good enough base runner to bat 3rd. Heck, while Buster Posey runs poorly, Buster himself gets on base enough that he wouldn't be the worst 3rd-place hitter in the world. In fact, in MLB's ranking the top 10 catchers, Bill James said of Buster that he was good enough to bat 3rd or 4th on most teams. I have a question for our posters. Ignoring that Buster has more value lower in the order, would you rather have a slow guy like Buster leading off with a .400 OBP -- or a burner with a .300 OBP? The burner can steal a lot more bases and take the extra base more often. But in this example, he gets on base only 3/4ths as often as Buster would. I would take Buster over the burner with a 100-point lower OBP. An off-the-top of my head example of the leadoff burner would be Omar Moreno. Omar stole 487 bases -- including over 70 in two different seasons -- but had only a .306 OBP. Omar scored a run only a little better than once every 8 plate appearances. Omar was the leadoff hitter about 70% of the time. Eddie Stanky batted leadoff about 80% of the time, had only a tenth the stolen bases Omar had, wasn't anywhere near the runner Omar was, hit for the same amount of power -- and scored better than once every seven trips to the plate. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1444&page=1#ixzz2KKvOGL10 |
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 15, 2013 16:04:29 GMT -5
Mildly surprised but not at all shocked that nobody on this thread even once mentioned the name of Gary Brown. This is a kid who stands to see lots of game time this Cactus League season with both Torres and Pagan playing in the WBC. He could certainly put himself in position to make the roster with a solid Spring. Even if he's not tearing it up offensively, his defense isn't much less than that of Blanco or Torres. And I would say his ceiling is higher than either. Many keep reminding me that they don't believe Gary is ready yet, and they could be right, if you are talking about him competing with Pagan for the starting CF spot. But competing with Torres to platoon with Blanco seems something Brown might be a lot more ready for. Time will tell.
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donk
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Post by donk on Feb 15, 2013 16:28:37 GMT -5
Boagie -- I like what you said about Belt. If Belt can generate consistent power he would be the best #3 hitter on the team. Rog -- It was only one season, but Brandon hit very well in 2012 in both high- and medium-level situations. He had an .840 OPS in high-leverage situations, an .876 OPS in medium-leverage situations -- and just a .684 OPS in low-leverage spots. He actually has a similar pattern over his full career, although to a slightly lesser extent. Perhaps Brandon is already making progress to that third spot in the order. By the way, while he's certainly not a burner, he's a plenty good enough base runner to bat 3rd. Heck, while Buster Posey runs poorly, Buster himself gets on base enough that he wouldn't be the worst 3rd-place hitter in the world. In fact, in MLB's ranking the top 10 catchers, Bill James said of Buster that he was good enough to bat 3rd or 4th on most teams. I have a question for our posters. Ignoring that Buster has more value lower in the order, would you rather have a slow guy like Buster leading off with a .400 OBP -- or a burner with a .300 OBP? The burner can steal a lot more bases and take the extra base more often. But in this example, he gets on base only 3/4ths as often as Buster would. I would take Buster over the burner with a 100-point lower OBP. An off-the-top of my head example of the leadoff burner would be Omar Moreno. Omar stole 487 bases -- including over 70 in two different seasons -- but had only a .306 OBP. Omar scored a run only a little better than once every 8 plate appearances. Omar was the leadoff hitter about 70% of the time. Eddie Stanky batted leadoff about 80% of the time, had only a tenth the stolen bases Omar had, wasn't anywhere near the runner Omar was, hit for the same amount of power -- and scored better than once every seven trips to the plate. dk...mm, Stanky had a lifetime .410 OBP...he was a walking genius...and he played with Al Dark who was a good mumber 2 hitter in getting runners into scoring position....and Stanky had one of the biggest mouths in baseball.....the first words I heard from Duroucher was telling the guys to get all their talking in because Stanky was coming to camp,,,, and Stanky was still a Cub and didn't become a Dodger until the following year...the only year Stanky led the league in runs (128), he had 143 hits and 148 walks.....Goody Rosen hit #2 that year....both Stanky and Rosen later played for the Giants... |
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donk
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Post by donk on Feb 15, 2013 16:30:51 GMT -5
Boagie -- I like what you said about Belt. If Belt can generate consistent power he would be the best #3 hitter on the team. Rog -- It was only one season, but Brandon hit very well in 2012 in both high- and medium-level situations. He had an .840 OPS in high-leverage situations, an .876 OPS in medium-leverage situations -- and just a .684 OPS in low-leverage spots. He actually has a similar pattern over his full career, although to a slightly lesser extent. Perhaps Brandon is already making progress to that third spot in the order. By the way, while he's certainly not a burner, he's a plenty good enough base runner to bat 3rd. Heck, while Buster Posey runs poorly, Buster himself gets on base enough that he wouldn't be the worst 3rd-place hitter in the world. In fact, in MLB's ranking the top 10 catchers, Bill James said of Buster that he was good enough to bat 3rd or 4th on most teams. I have a question for our posters. Ignoring that Buster has more value lower in the order, would you rather have a slow guy like Buster leading off with a .400 OBP -- or a burner with a .300 OBP? The burner can steal a lot more bases and take the extra base more often. But in this example, he gets on base only 3/4ths as often as Buster would. I would take Buster over the burner with a 100-point lower OBP. An off-the-top of my head example of the leadoff burner would be Omar Moreno. Omar stole 487 bases -- including over 70 in two different seasons -- but had only a .306 OBP. Omar scored a run only a little better than once every 8 plate appearances. Omar was the leadoff hitter about 70% of the time. Eddie Stanky batted leadoff about 80% of the time, had only a tenth the stolen bases Omar had, wasn't anywhere near the runner Omar was, hit for the same amount of power -- and scored better than once every seven trips to the plate. dk...mm, Stanky had a lifetime .410 OBP...he was a walking genius...and he played with Al Dark who was a good mumber 2 hitter in getting runners into scoring position....and Stanky had one of the biggest mouths in baseball.....the first words I heard from Duroucher was telling the guys to get all their talking in because Stanky was coming to camp,,,, and Stanky was still a Cub and didn't become a Dodger until the following year...the only year Stanky led the league in runs (128), he had 143 hits and 148 walks.....Goody Rosen hit #2 that year....both Stanky and Rosen later played for the Giants... |
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