Predicted 2013 Giants Opening Day Roster

[Islandboagie]

Rog -- You're right here, of course. But it was you who introduced time into the equation with your hot dog cooking analogy. Let's look volume of play instead, prior to their primary season of play in the majors.

1 minute hot dog -- Belt (595 plate appearances), Sanchez (1286 plate appearances), Sandoval (1899 plate appearances)

2 minute hot dog -- Posey (750 plate appearances), Bumgarner (355.2 IP), Cain (397.2 IP)

3 minute hot dog -- Minor (approximately 3600 plate appearances), Linden (approximately 2700 plate appearances), Frandsen (approximately 1000 plate appearances)

The three minute hot dogs clearly took a lot more seasoing before they were brought up. But, again, there isn't all that much difference between the 1 minute hot dogs and the 2 minute hot dogs.

But look at how well the 2 minute hot dogs did, you say. They did well when they came up, so clearly they were ready. The 1 minute dogs didn't do well, so clearly they weren't ready. Sort of begs the question, doesn't it?

Belt wasn't ready, yet he had almost as much minor league experience as Buster did. Sanchez wasn't ready, but he had nearly as much minor league experience as Bumgarner. Pablo actually WAS ready, and he had more experience than Cain (who was also ready, although based on their major league career paths, not as ready as Pablo).


Boagie- You make a compelling argument here, Rog. Except you are leaving out some rather important key factors.

#1, Posey was a first round pick (likely would have been first overall if it wasn't for the large signing bonus) Belt was 5th round pick.

#2, Belt's PA all came in one season. 61 of those PA came in Fresno where he batted .229. Posey had 359 PA in Fresno and batted .321 and .349 in his two partial seasons in AAA.

(Remember I said that along with adaquate time spent, it also relies heavily on performance and proving you belong at the next level.)

In Buster's case I think he proved he belonged at the next level. With Brandon there was still a question mark left in those final 61 PA in Fresno. But yet, you and others deemed Belt ready.

#3, Pablo DID get alot of PA throughout his minor league career before he was called up in 2008, you're correct. Unfortunately, MOST of those came prior to him being promoted to San Jose. While I'm sure they develop in those rookie leagues and low A ball, I think their real development to become a major league ready player comes between San Jose and Fresno. However, he did prove overwhelmingly that he belonged at a higher level at San Jose and Connecticut, tearing up both of those leagues in 2008. He certainly proved early on he was a major leaguer, but I still wonder if the 2010 season would have gone better for him if he had time in Fresno prior to that. As you've pointed out, and I agree, we just don't know.

What I do know though is that logic can often be used in alot of situations. but let's move on..

#4. You mentioned Tim Lincecum, and I didn't even create a hot dog analogy for Timmy. Tim wasn't a 1,2 or 3 minute hot dog. Tim was already cooked up and served on a bun with all the fixings, then handed to us. Timmy put up ridiculous numbers at every level.

One thing that I havent mentioned that I think is a large key to progression is dealing with a cold streak and making an adjustment at the minor league level. Timmy was not able to do this, which I believe is why he's had so many difficulties over the last few years. I also think it led to Belt's troubles over the last 2 years. The other players had some time to go through this. This is still somewhat new to Timmy, and Brandon. I think Pablo dealt with it in 2010. All three went through extended cold streaks where they lost almost all confidence.

Now, why is it that Posey, Cain, and Bumgarner haven't gone through this long cold streak like Sandoval, Lincecum and Belt have? Remember, 3 spent a chunk of time at AAA, and 3 didn't. Are we just going to chalk this up as another coincidence, or are we going to be logical? (logic won't bite, Rog.)

[donk]

thing that I havent mentioned that I think is a large key to progression is dealing with a cold streak and making an adjustment at the minor league level. Timmy was not able to do this, which I believe is why he's had so many difficulties over the last few years. I also think it led to Belt's troubles over the last 2 years. The other players had some time to go through this. This is still somewhat new to Timmy, and Brandon. I think Pablo dealt with it in 2010. All three went through extended cold streaks where they lost almost all confidence.

Now, why is it that Posey, Cain, and Bumgarner haven't gone through this long cold streak like Sandoval, Lincecum and Belt have? Remember, 3 spent a chunk of time at AAA, and 3 didn't. Are we just going to chalk this up as another coincidence, or are we going to be logical? (logic won't bite, Rog.)

dk..Posey went through a long (106 plate appearances) with very little power but was "saved" by his injury"...he has also been very inconsistant in his power numbers....I never saw any big adjustment... in fact, he was doing a lot of over-swinging in the World Series.

[Islandboagie]

dk..Posey went through a long (106 plate appearances) with very little power but was "saved" by his injury"...he has also been very inconsistant in his power numbers....I never saw any big adjustment... in fact, he was doing a lot of over-swinging in the World Series.

Boagie- I don't think Posey's slow start in 2011 even approaches what Belt and Lincecum have gone through, or what Pablo went through in 2010. When Posey went down with his injury he was still batting .284. Belt, Lincecum, and Pablo were so lost that there was talk of demotion to AAA.

What's the issue with Posey, Don? I can normally figure why someone doesn't like a player, but a Giants fan not liking Posey is like a Christian not liking Jesus. It just doesn't make sense. Furthermore, how could you claim all these negative things about Posey's hitting then say he has never made a big adjustment, and then he wins the batting crown and MVP?

[sharksrog]

Boagie- You make a compelling argument here, Rog. Except you are leaving out some rather important key factors.

#1, Posey was a first round pick (likely would have been first overall if it wasn't for the large signing bonus) Belt was 5th round pick.

#2, Belt's PA all came in one season. 61 of those PA came in Fresno where he batted .229. Posey had 359 PA in Fresno and batted .321 and .349 in his two partial seasons in AAA.

(Remember I said that along with adaquate time spent, it also relies heavily on performance and proving you belong at the next level.)

In Buster's case I think he proved he belonged at the next level. With Brandon there was still a question mark left in those final 61 PA in Fresno. But yet, you and others deemed Belt ready.

Rog -- You and I are talking about two different things here. I concur with virtually every point you made above. Let me mention a personal example of what I think you are talking about, as compared to my own misinterpretation of what you said.

In high school there was this girl who for some reason had this huge crush on me. She was intelligent and extremely nice. I was friendly with her, but that was as far as it went. I just wasn't interested beyond that.

Years later I ran into her at the BART station. My jaw must have dropped. She was flat-out stunning. She too was friendly, just as I had been back in high school, but I'll bet she was thinking something to the effect of, what was I thinking when I had such a big crush on THAT guy?

Like Warren Spahn, she was a late bloomer. Or perhaps, as may have been the case with Saphnie, I didn't recognize her for what she was.

I took your analogy to be that a player needed to have more time (than the 1 minute hot dog), but not too much (as was the case with the 3 minute hot dog). What you really were saying is that it's good not to rush a player, nor to keep him down for too much time, but to pick the fruit just as it becomes ripe.

And there we agree completely. The hard part is that a player doesn't change colors like a banana, so it's tough to know just the right time.

And for some players, there IS no right time. Sadly, guys like Damon Minor just aren't good enough. Their fruit is flawed even when it is ripe. Or maybe one could say that they NEVER ripen.

One could also say I wasn't a very good scout in high school.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- You mentioned Tim Lincecum, and I didn't even create a hot dog analogy for Timmy. Tim wasn't a 1,2 or 3 minute hot dog. Tim was already cooked up and served on a bun with all the fixings, then handed to us. Timmy put up ridiculous numbers at every level.

Rog -- And yet even Tim wasn't quite a finished product when he reached the majors. His rookie season was very inconsistent, and while IMO he pitched better than his 4.00 ERA indicated, he certainly wasn't anywhere near the pitcher he became in the next two seasons.

One thing I WILL tell you though, is that he was UNBELIEVABLE at Fresno. I saw four of his five starts there, and his dad saw the other (in Tacoma). Especially in his final start at Fresno, he was about as close to unhittable as it came.

But even then, he struggled horribly in June, and also the rest of the way after a three-strikeout-on-10-pitch first inning against Pittsburgh. I was at that game in early August, and a couple of innings into the game, Tim was uncannily on pace for the projections I made for his rookie season when he came up. Then he dropped off to his ultimate 4.00 ERA.

Matt Cain was a very good pitcher when he came to the big leagues. Yet it took him until the 2010 season to become the great pitcher he is today. Even in 2009 when his ERA dropped below 3.00, he wasn't as good as he has been the past three seasons.

We know the story with Ryan Vogelsong, yet Madison Bumgarner was an excellent pitcher from the time he touched the bigs.

Players do develop at different rates. Matt Cain had a 4.39 ERA at Fresno in his final minor league season, although at the end of the year he was promoted to the bigs at age 20 -- and pitched well.

There were indeed signs that Brandon Belt might not have been ready. I wasn't too worried about his .229 average at Fresno, since the sample size was small (meaning he may have hit in tough luck). He hit for a TON of power (his 2.44 bases per hit was Bondsian), and his OPS was still well over .900.

But in the Arizona Fall League, while he hit a resounding .372 with a 1.043 OPS, his K/BB ratio -- which had been virtually one to one over his minor league career, just as had been the case with Buster Posey a year before -- reached 24/9. I worried about it at the time, but obviously not enough. Brandon's 24 strikeouts in 86 at bats was a sign of things to come.

Brandon's .372 average came on a .608 BABIP. How could I have missed that?

A side note that may not bode well for one of the Giants' top prospects. Gary Brown his a nice .313 in the AFL this winter. But for a leadoff man, he too struck out a lot (14 times in 64 at bats), and the .313 was fashioned on a .400 BABIP.

Obviously a .400 BABIP isn't as unsustainable as .608, but it's still unsustainable.

Brown has played two seasons in the AFL. He was first six months older than Belt and then a year and a half older than Belt in those two seasons (compared to Belt's age when Brandon played in 2010).

Brown has a 24/6 K/BB ratio in those two seasons. He has hit .272, based on a .344 BABIP. Brown has tremendous speed, and might be able to sustain that .344 BABIP, or at least come close to it. I see him as .250-.270 major league hitter.

Let's compare that to Joe Panik, who is two years younger than Brown and has also played the past two winters in the AFL. Joe's .269 average is virtually the same as Brown's .272. But he has put it together completely differently.

Panik's K/BB ratio is 17/19, enabling him to put up much the same average as Brown despite Joe's hitting for only a .285 BABIP. Panik has hit for more power than Brown in the AFL (1.41 bases per hit to 1.25), but neither is a power hitter, and in fact their power is pretty close (56 extra bases for Panik in the 2012 regular season to 57 for Brown).

They could ultimately hit in the top two spots in the Giants' order, meaning it would be nice for each player to get on base. Despite having essentially the same batting average, Panik's OBP has been about 35 points higher than Brown's.

There are other factors to consider. More of Brown's average is based on his great speed, while more of Panik's is based on contact. Brown outhit Panik at San Jose, although Brown was a year older when he played there than Panik was. Brown followed a poor AFL season with a good one, while Panik followed a good one with a poor one.

A side note: In the 2011 AFL, Panik was outhit for average on the Scottsdale Scorpions by only Bryce Harper. Bryce was 18 turning 19; Joe was 20 turning 21.

Last season both Brown and Panik dropped off in the regular season from excellent 2011 regular seasons. Panik skipped two levels from short-season A to High A San Jose, while Brown played in the pitching-oriented AA Eastern League.

Panik is two years younger than Brown and has a much more professional hitting approach. In fact, Panik is that rare combination of a contact hitter with patience that allows him to draw walks.

Whereas I see Brown as a .250-.270 hitter, I see Panik in the .280-.300 range. And I see their OBP's differing by well over 50 points to Joe's advantage. It is their ability to reach base that varies the most.

Brown has by far the better speed, but he isn't yet an accomplished base stealer. Gary is 25 now, so I'm not sure he will ever steal at a high percentage, although he can put up the numbers.

As a contact hitter, Panik is well-suited for the #2 spot in the order, although his speed is said to be marginal for the top of the order. His ability to get on base and as a left batter, hit behind the runner should supercede that.

Brown is by FAR the better fielder, and Panik will likely shift from shortstop to second base. I can see Panik as being a Marco Scutaro-type hitter with a higher average than Marco's career .276, but a little less power than Marco. Panik will likely strike out a bit more than Marco, but walk more as well.

Brown appears to me to be a guy who will make his living more with his glove than his bat. Will Gary take off at Fresno this season? He might. Remember, Nick Noonan and several other players have. Heck, by midseason, Gary could bee the Giants' starting left fielder.

But at this point, I don't see him as being nearly the hitter Panik will be. I think Brown will be closer to Brandon Crawford than to Panik at the plate.

As is usually the case with prospects, this season will be important for both Brown and Panik. Brown will need to show he can hit AAA pitching, and could rise to the majors before the seasons ends. Panik will need to show he can hit AA pitching, and could be a September callup.

Panik is one season behind Brown, but is two years younger. Brown has reached the age where he needs to continue being a prospect rather than become a suspect. Panik still has time before he runs that risk.

The Giants need both players in their future. Panik will likely hit at the top of the order, while Brown could wind up at either end. The Giants need Panik's patient approach to eventually replace Scutaro. They need Brown's combination of defense, speed and hitting to help fill what will still likey be a bit of a hole in the outfield.

And it would be nice if Belt has also found his stroke at the major league level. And if Lincecum has regained much of his former position of being arguably the best pitcher in baseball. And if Crawford's glove is recognized as one of the best in baseball and his hitting has become more than adequate.


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[sharksrog]

dk..Posey went through a long (106 plate appearances) with very little power but was "saved" by his injury"...

Rog -- Only a fool would say this. Players go through their up's and down's, through streaks where they can't "buy" a hit, and streaks in which they somehow don't show much power. It took my looking at all of one season to find a 113 plate appearance stretch in which Johnny
Bench hit just two doubles and a triple -- not a single home run. Like Buster, it was Johnny's second season, and all he did was hit 26 homers, become an All-Star, finish 13th in the MVP voting, and hit for an .840 OPS.

Similar to Buster, he also went on to his best season the following year. Johnny hit 45 homers, won the MVP and posted a .932 OPS and a 141 OPS+. He led the NL in homers.

In Buster's following season, he led the NL in hitting, posted a .957 OPS and a 172 OPS+, and won the NL MVP.

Had Bench been injured midway through that 1969 season, would you have said that he was "saved?"

Don, you're losing more credibility here. I just don't get it.

Don -- he has also been very inconsistant in his power numbers....

Rog -- Almost every power hitter does -- and I don't really consider Buster to be a power hitter. Certainly the early-career "power outage" Bench suffered through was comparitively worse than Buster's.

Bench was a power hitter who hit for a decent average. He was, in essence, Harmon Killebrew, with a little higher batting average and a touch less power. Buster is, in essence, Joe Mauer with little less average and more power. The first two players are in the Hall of Fame, and there is a reasonable chance the other two will join them. Buster has a long way to go, but Joe is already getting pretty close.

Don -- I never saw any big adjustment... in fact, he was doing a lot of over-swinging in the World Series.

Rog -- You weren't looking for an adjustment. As for the World Series (and the rest of the playoffs), I think you make a good point.

A question for you: Do you think next season Buster will hit more like the 2012 regular season or the 2012 post-season?

In what is something of an irony here, Buster actually homered slightly more frequently in the post-season than the regular season. But he certainly didn't hit nearly as well. Buster's K/BB ratio in the regular season was 96/69. In the post-season, it was 15/8.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- What's the issue with Posey, Don? I can normally figure why someone doesn't like a player, but a Giants fan not liking Posey is like a Christian not liking Jesus.

Rog -- You're right here, Boagie, although I might have stated it slightly differently.

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[sharksrog]

Right now I'm watching MLB Network's hour on the 10 best catchers RIGHT NOW. The choice is made based on which catcher they would sign for one season.

I haven't quite gotten to the official choice by objective "The Shredder," but I'm almost sure it will be Posey. Same with Dave Valle's choice. He is one of the guys on the show. Buster was the choice of former GM John Hart, show host Brian Kinney, and perhaps most important of all, Bill James.

James called Posey "unique," and said he was above average in all categories except speed and blocking the plate. Posey certainly wasn't considered the defensive equal of Yadier Molina, whom James called the best defensive catcher since Ivan Rodriguez, but when pitch calling, handling pitchers and pitch framing were included in defense, James felt Buster was very good.

In other words, as I stated in a previous post, anyone putting Posey down is merely losing credibility.

Oh, James also said that if Posey "keeps it up for any length of time," he will become a Hall of Famer. James did caution that he didn't want to get ahead of himself though.

In other words, regardless of what any poster here says, Buster is the consensus pick as the best catcher in the game today. Some would argue that between Buster and Yadier, it's pretty close. But not too many would argue that Yadier is the better of the two.

Buster won the MVP over Yadier, and he won it pretty easily. And so what if Buster is only the #2 catcher? He's still good enough that no one should have a hard on for him.

IMO one poster here has a hard on for Barry Bonds (and to a less visible but equal extent for any steroid user) and another has a hard on for Buster and Tim Lincecum.

Personally, I think that I -- like you and most of the posters here -- simply take the information they have and try to be objective. Boly isn't always totally objective, but like the true gentleman he is, he admits it when that is the case.

[donk]

Feb 5, 2013 15:15:13 GMT -5 sharksrog said:

Boagie -- What's the issue with Posey, Don? I can normally figure why someone doesn't like a player, but a Giants fan not liking Posey is like a Christian not liking Jesus.

Rog -- You're right here, Boagie, although I might have stated it slightly differently.

dk...I never said that I don't like or dislike Posey, I just think he would be a better ball player if he didn't catch.....I also think there is an aura about him that Giants fans aren't able to really rate his abilities....,,..,and I still not convinced the Giants players like him as much as some fans.....why is it that everyone else can diss any or all Giants except me??? I just try to give the second side of Posey....it used to be that you guys dissed me for criticise Tim...and now I have lots of company....

as far as Christians...I just finished watching the story of the Crusades on the History Channel (?)...first time that I ever heard that after sacking an Arab city, they ate the residents.....

[Islandboagie]

dk...I never said that I don't like or dislike Posey, I just think he would be a better ball player if he didn't catch.....I also think there is an aura about him that Giants fans aren't able to really rate his abilities.

Boagie- Your comment on him being "saved" by his injury makes me believe you don't really like him as a player, or a person. In fact it kind of sounds like you're upset that he got injured because you felt he was going to have a poor season and you were going to be able to say how right you were about him. To want a player to fail so you can be correct would be about as much dislike for a player as is possible.

As far as Posey's aura. It's an aura that's brought 2 World Series trophies to San Francisco in the last 3 years. It's the winning aura, the refusal to let a serious injury halt his path aura. In my opinion it's the same aura you hate Barry Bonds for not having. That's where me and you agree about Bonds, Bonds never had that. Barry was perhaps the greatest hitter I may ever see, but I would take Buster Posey over Barry Bonds in a heartbeat.


dk....and I still not convinced the Giants players like him as much as some fans.....

Boagie- I see no evidence of that being the case.


dk..why is it that everyone else can diss any or all Giants except me???

Boagie- I get on some players too. I ripped Pagan early and often last season, but when he did good I had to admit I was wrong, and Pagan didn't even win the MVP award (hint hint.) I tore into Melky a few times last year because #1 i knew he was juicing, and #2 he's been playing ball in the states for years and he still doesn't know a lick of english. I've questioned Bochy and Sabean more times than I can count.

The problem is your complaints about Posey are weak. In this topic alone you've talked about how Posey escaped embarassment of not having enough power by getting his ankle shattered, like he got hurt on purpose. You claim his teammates don't like him and that he's somehow brainwashed every Giants fan in the world (except you) to like him. Your comments on his footwork around the plate and his blocking of the plate are one thing you say about Posey that hold any merit with me. I agree, he could use some work around home plate. He's not nearly as bad as you say he is, but if Posey did have a weakness (other than his speed after the ankle injury) it's his footwork and blocking.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- if Posey did have a weakness (other than his speed after the ankle injury) it's his footwork and blocking.

Rog -- When I see Yadier Molina block a ball, it's almost as if his body eats it. A technique that makes one wonder how a ball ever gets through hit. Buster's technique isn't as good.

Yet somehow last season -- and over their careers -- Buster allowed fewer wild pitches per inning than Yadier did, and a LOT fewer passed balls. Having caught a lot longer, Yadier's technique is better. But Buster is more athletic and has the hands of a shortstop.

In other words, they each get it done in different ways, BUT EACH GETS IT DONE. Buster actually slightly better than Yadier.

Yet one poster continues to put down Buster's work behind the plate and in every other way he can. Buster has a prolonged power slump and suddenly he has no power. The body language this poster sees indicates Buster doesn't get along with his teammates. Etc., etc.

When it comes to some of the Giants' very best players, that poster is a fool. Hey, I'm not even saying the guy is wrong all the time. But what is the point of continually ripping, ripping, ripping, when much of the time the guy is obviously wrong or inappropriate?

I wish the guy would simply examine what it is that makes him take such a questionable stance? If he weren't so obviously biased against the guy and limited the scope of his criticism to more fact and less innuendo, we might take the guy seriously.

The guy makes some good points here, and he's not afraid to step outside the box. But he seems to get a hard on for certain players, posters and ideas. In other words, the guy destroys the impact of the good ideas he does have.

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[Islandboagie]

Rog -- When I see Yadier Molina block a ball, it's almost as if his body eats it. A technique that makes one wonder how a ball ever gets through hit. Buster's technique isn't as good.

Yet somehow last season -- and over their careers -- Buster allowed fewer wild pitches per inning than Yadier did, and a LOT fewer passed balls. Having caught a lot longer, Yadier's technique is better. But Buster is more athletic and has the hands of a shortstop.

In other words, they each get it done in different ways, BUT EACH GETS IT DONE. Buster actually slightly better than Yadier.

Boagie- While I love Buster, and agree he's the best all around catcher in the game, Yadier is clearly the best defensive catcher. Buster could become the best, because as you mention, he's got hands like a shortstop. I've seen Buster backhand balls way off the plate, balls Yadier wouldn't have a chance catching. Yadier however is better on balls that a catcher should block. Molina is also a tad better at throwing out runners, and has the green light to block the plate when a runner is trying to score. Together I think these things make Yadier Molina the better defensive catcher, as of right now.

Buster imo is easily in the top 5 defensive catchers in the game, and clearly the best offensively.

[Islandboagie]

When it comes to some of the Giants' very best players, that poster is a fool. Hey, I'm not even saying the guy is wrong all the time. But what is the point of continually ripping, ripping, ripping, when much of the time the guy is obviously wrong or inappropriate?

I wish the guy would simply examine what it is that makes him take such a questionable stance? If he weren't so obviously biased against the guy and limited the scope of his criticism to more fact and less innuendo, we might take the guy seriously.

The guy makes some good points here, and he's not afraid to step outside the box. But he seems to get a hard on for certain players, posters and ideas. In other words, the guy destroys the impact of the good ideas he does have.

Boagie- This was the consensus about you when I first joined this little group many years ago. In fact I was told not to respond to your posts or I would be removed from the board. I didn't pay much attention to it then, and I'm not interested in it now.

Don does go a little overboard at times, as we all have. Like I mentioned, I hated Pagan with a passion and use to attack Randy and Allen if they said anything positive about him. Randy and Allen have been passionate about their politics. Boly is passionate about how much the Giants suck when they lose a game. You are passionate about yout stats. The only one who can claim to have a level head here is Mark.

Btw, I was under the impression that having a "hard on" for someone is liking them, not disliking them. Was I wrong in assuming this?

[sharksrog]

Boagie- While I love Buster, and agree he's the best all around catcher in the game, Yadier is clearly the best defensive catcher. Buster could become the best, because as you mention, he's got hands like a shortstop. I've seen Buster backhand balls way off the plate, balls Yadier wouldn't have a chance catching. Yadier however is better on balls that a catcher should block. Molina is also a tad better at throwing out runners, and has the green light to block the plate when a runner is trying to score. Together I think these things make Yadier Molina the better defensive catcher, as of right now.

Buster imo is easily in the top 5 defensive catchers in the game, and clearly the best offensively.

Rog -- It's tough to judge a player's fielding -- much tougher than judging his hitting, power or even base running. We can quantify a player's hitting, power or base running. It's far tougher to quantify his fielding in a meaningful way. Judging fielding is either subjective and/or is based on metrics that no one agrees on and which often don't agree.

I think almost everyone thinks that Yadier is the best defensive catcher in the game. That marvelous defense coupled with the fact that the last two years he has even HIT make it tough not to choose him as the best all-around catcher in the game.

But as you mention, Buster is pretty darn good defensively himself. And he has become one of the game's best hitters. Most would agree that Buster is the best catcher around. Heck, last year even with his injury and all the doubts surrounding it, he was chosen as the 4th-best catcher RIGHT NOW.

Where I think Yadier is clearly better than Buster is in the throwing game. I think Buster is clearly above average there and may become even better, but right now just about every catcher's throwing pales in comparison with Yadier.

I think Buster's athleticism allows him to be as good or better overall in preventing pitches from getting by him than Yadier is. Buster fields well around the plate, too, although I doubt he's quite as good yet as Yadier is.

Then we get into areas that are REALLY hard to measure and evaluate -- areas like pitch calling, handling of pitchers, and framing. I have actually seen metrics on the value of each catcher's pitch framing and of his pitch calling. Do I think they are accurate? I don't think anyone can tell us for sure either way.

How about handling of pitchers? How do we evaluate that? Is it possible that a catcher might be better in handling the pitchers of one staff but not another? Even if we knew how to evaluate it, how would we know its value?

Fielding is EXTREMELY difficult to evaluate objectively. Catching is even more complex.

Bill James made a point on the MLB Network that I think bears some consideration. As he said, teams can vary in the number of runs they give up by about 200. Most of that is controlled by the pitchers. So just how much impact can one player have defensively?

I would say a catcher might be able to have more defensive control than any position aside from catcher. But if the most teams vary in runs allowed is about 200 and most of that difference is controlled by the pitcher, how much control does even the catcher have?

I guess more than anything else, his control comes from getting the most out of his pitchers. And just how do we know how effectively he does that?

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Btw, I was under the impression that having a "hard on" for someone is liking them, not disliking them. Was I wrong in assuming this?


Rog -- have a hard on for

Slang Dictionary

have a hard-on for (so) definition

tv.
to wish to do someone physical damage; to seek revenge on someone. (The aggressor and victim are usually males. Usually objectionable.) : The punk thinks he has a hard-on for Mr. Gutman.



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[donk]

Feb 6, 2013 0:04:27 GMT -5 Islandboagie said:

dk...I never said that I don't like or dislike Posey, I just think he would be a better ball player if he didn't catch.....I also think there is an aura about him that Giants fans aren't able to really rate his abilities.

Boagie- Your comment on him being "saved" by his injury makes me believe you don't really like him as a player, or a person. In fact it kind of sounds like you're upset that he got injured because you felt he was going to have a poor season and you were going to be able to say how right you were about him. To want a player to fail so you can be correct would be about as much dislike for a player as is possible.

dk.I second guessed my use of the word "saved"...I was just trying to make the point that his powerless streak ended when he went out with an injuryI don't want any Giant to fail...I even root for them after they leave the Giants...and again, I don't dislike the guy, I just think he would be better if he didn't catch....and this isn't the first time I have said that....

As far as Posey's aura. It's an aura that's brought 2 World Series trophies to San Francisco in the last 3 years. It's the winning aura, the refusal to let a serious injury halt his path aura. In my opinion it's the same aura you hate Barry Bonds for not having. That's where me and you agree about Bonds, Bonds never had that. Barry was perhaps the greatest hitter I may ever see, but I would take Buster Posey over Barry Bonds in a heartbeat.

dk...Bonds was the only Giant I was ashamed of ....and he was the only one I had to disown when talking to Dodger fans...


dk....and I still not convinced the Giants players like him as much as some fans.....

Boagie- I see no evidence of that being the case.

dk..I just never see the Giants spend any time around him in the dugout....


dk..why is it that everyone else can diss any or all Giants except me???

Boagie- I get on some players too. I ripped Pagan early and often last season, but when he did good I had to admit I was wrong, and Pagan didn't even win the MVP award (hint hint.) I tore into Melky a few times last year because #1 i knew he was juicing, and #2 he's been playing ball in the states for years and he still doesn't know a lick of english. I've questioned Bochy and Sabean more times than I can count.

The problem is your complaints about Posey are weak. In this topic alone you've talked about how Posey escaped embarassment of not having enough power by getting his ankle shattered, like he got hurt on purpose. You claim his teammates don't like him and that he's somehow brainwashed every Giants fan in the world (except you) to like him. Your comments on his footwork around the plate and his blocking of the plate are one thing you say about Posey that hold any merit with me. I agree, he could use some work around home plate. He's not nearly as bad as you say he is, but if Posey did have a weakness (other than his speed after the ankle injury) it's his footwork and blocking.

dk...I don't know how much you really concentrate on watching Posey....he does things that me and several of the other teams announcers have never seen before...and the comented on it...ducking a high fast ball and having the pitch hit the umpire...going into the fetal position on inside sliders that the batter swings at....jumping up in the air for a pitch in the dirt...this appears to be the way spmeone reacts to being afraid of getting hit with the ball....he has been extremely lucky in stabbing the ball, but it isn't right....and chances are his luck will run out as he continues to slow down....

Using Bill James latest yearbook whetre he has the Baseball Fielding Bible ratings...Posey is picked the 5th best catcher...despite having the highest batting stats...he was rated by 10 guys who were asked to rate catchers.1 to 10...of the 10, Posey was selected by 3 raters,others rated him 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10...so he was rated 5th because the votes were so spread out, he became the best of the second tier basrd on his hitting...the rating of the fielding part of catching, Posey didn't finish in the first 9 or the last 5...there were 3 guys tied for ninth, but they were unnamed...in the runs saved rating of catchers' fielding...Posey finished 16th...with a 0 rating...the guys on this post ripped Bengie is his last years for being to slow and hitting into double plays...Bengie only exceded Posey's number of hitting into DP's in one year.......Posey hit into 19 DP's...and these are still young...albeit injured ...legs.,.,.,.there is constant talk that Posey will be removed from catching to save what's left of his legs...I say, do it now.....

[Islandboagie]

dk...I don't know how much you really concentrate on watching Posey....

Boagie- I've watched him just about every game and almost every inning since he was called up in 2010. I watched him for 2 years in spring training prior to that, and I saw 1 game in San Jose with him catching.

dk....he does things that me and several of the other teams announcers have never seen before...and the comented on it

Boagie- From my experience, when the other announcers talk about Posey it's always praise.

dk- ducking a high fast ball and having the pitch hit the umpire...

Boagie- I don't recall that happening but it could have if Posey got crossed up or just simply missed the ball. I can tell you this hasn't happened enough that it should be considered a problem. Name any player in baseball and I'm sure that player has made a number of stupid mistakes.

dk- going into the fetal position on inside sliders that the batter swings at....

Boagie- I'm not trying to be difficult here Don, but I'm not really sure what you're talking about. If anyone is assuming the fetal position when our pitchers throw inside sliders, its likely Bochy and Righetti. Sliders on the inside corner usually get hit a long way. Maybe you could be more specific about the "fetal position."

dk- jumping up in the air for a pitch in the dirt

Boagie- I have never seen Posey jump up in the air on a pitch in the dirt. If you mean he doesn't get down on balls in the dirt as good as he should, I agree. He does need to drop down and block the ball with his body more.

dk- this appears to be the way spmeone reacts to being afraid of getting hit with the ball

Boagie- I don't think Posey would be a catcher if he was afraid of getting hit with a baseball. I don't even think he would be able to play baseball period.

dk- ....he has been extremely lucky in stabbing the ball, but it isn't right....and chances are his luck will run out as he continues to slow down....

Boagie- I don't think it's necessarily luck, Posey's got good hands, but you're right, he will have to learn to block with his body more.

dk- the guys on this post ripped Bengie is his last years for being to slow and hitting into double plays...Bengie only exceded Posey's number of hitting into DP's in one year.......Posey hit into 19 DP's...and these are still young...albeit injured ...legs

Boagie- I loved Bengie. He hit into alot of double plays and was slow, but for 3 years he drove in alot of runs for us. When you're doing good things, being slow and hitting into double plays can be overlooked. When you're the Bengie of 2010 and only hitting .257, the speed and double plays stick out like a sore thumb. I'd imagine if Buster were hitting .257 instead of winning MVP awards and batting titles we'd rip on him a little more too. That being said, I hope Buster's speed increases a little, not because it's become a liability, but because getting some speed back would make him even better.

I just can't agree with too many negative things about Buster Posey, Don. I agree with your take on him not using his body as much as he should. But, on the other end of that, we got a guy who has won the RoY, MVP, comeback player of the year, batting title, and was a major cog in an offense that led us to two World Series championships, while also throwing out more base stealers than anyone in baseball in just two full seasons at the major league level. If everything you said was in fact true, I'd still like the guy.

[sharksrog]

Don -- Using Bill James latest yearbook whetre he has the Baseball Fielding Bible ratings...Posey is picked the 5th best catcher...despite having the highest batting stats...

Rog -- What does that prove? I agree that good hitters/players get added attention that could help them, but if a guy is ranked 5th out of 30, he's probably above average. In addition, Don, from what I know about most of those who cast votes, they aren't likely to be swayed by a player's hitting when they are judging fielding. Much as they aren't likely to be swayed by a player's fielding when judging hitting.

Don -- he was rated by 10 guys who were asked to rate catchers.1 to 10...of the 10, Posey was selected by 3 raters,others rated him 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10...so he was rated 5th because the votes were so spread out

Rog -- He was rated 5th because the votes were spread out? Pullease. You meant to say that three evaluators DIDN'T select him. Yet only three catchers were chosen by all the voters, and one more wasn't chosen by just one. Those were the four catchers who finished ahead of Buster.

Those who best evaluate fielding realize how difficult it is to evaluate. Differences can be based on personal preference, whether a player had good or bad defensive games when he was being evaluated, whether high-impact players -- either way -- are overvalued, which facets are evaluated (which is particularly diverse with regard to catchers), and how those facets are weighted.

Given those variables, there are going to be considerable differences of opinion. No fewer than 20 catchers where chosen by one or more evaluators to be in their top 10.

Have you watched the Top Ten Players (by position) Right Now? There are significant differences of opinion there, as well. And if there are going to be different opinions in ranking players overall, there are going to be even MORE differences when ranking something as difficult to evaluate as fielding.

If you want to accurately dimish Buster's accomplishment here, Don, wouldn't it make more sense to point out that the top four catchers (Yadier Molina, Matt Weiters, Ryan Hannigan and Carlos Ruiz) were clear choices, while Buster led a large group of catchers who formed a bit of a pack?

The opening was there, Don. Not that it was a huge knock on Buster's defense, but a comment that better put his 5th-place finish in perspective. Why not take the opening when it is there, rather than say he was rated 5th because the votes were spread out? He finished 5th because he received the most voter points.

He finished well behind the top four because those four guys were much clearer choices for most -- leaving the rest of the votes, as you mentioned, somewhat spread out.

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[donk]

Once more, good old Rog cherry picked and left out what I wrote that proves what I said and what he accuses me of not proving....one, Posey was not in the first nine guys picked when they rated they rated catchers win fielding....two, and he finished i6th in runs saved as a catcher with 0 runs saved...you read it,why not do the decent thing and talk about it instead of twisting what I wrote...and I made an error in the original comment...of the 10 guys who rated the top 10 catchers, 3 did not pick Posey at all...

[sharksrog]

Don -- the guys on this post ripped Bengie is his last years for being to slow and hitting into double plays..

Rog -- I don't know that Bengie was ripped for his (lack of) speed so much as it was recognized that he was the slowest player in the game. For a guy of his extreme slowness, he didn't really hit into that many double plays.

Do you know why? Because he is fly ball hitter, and it's hard to ground into a double play on a fly ball.

As for Buster, we have spoken here about the high number of double plays he hits into. It's not an inordinate amount, but it is indeed high. We have also spoken about how double plays are underrated as a NEGATIVE for a batter.

Remember how I have lobbied for more evaluating a hitter by the bases he accumulates at the plate (total bases plus walks plus hbp plus sacrifices plus sacrifice flies) compared to outs made (at bats minus hits, plus sacrifices, sacrifice flies and GDP's)? That puts a double play into more proper perspective.

In reality, hitting into a double play is a bad out -- not only because there are two of them, but because a runner is erased.

But, yeah, Buster wasn't fast even before his injury. That might be the primary reason he was shifted from shortstop. Now he's pretty darn slow. And because of the injury, he doesn't block the plate (although his athleticism and soft hands do allow him to make a lot of sweep and diving tags).

Aside from that, picking on him is pretty much folly.

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[sharksrog]

Don -- there is constant talk that Posey will be removed from catching to save what's left of his legs...I say, do it now.....

Rog -- I don't totally disagree, but there are some significant reasons to keep Buster behind the plate, even though doing so does likely shorten his career.

. The Giants feel Buster's leadership ability is best utlitized behind the plate.

. Buster himself strongly wants to catch.

. Buster is a very bright guy, meaning he likely calls better pitches than many other catchers.

. Moving Buster to first base hurts the Giants' overall offensive potential.

. Moving Buster to first base hurts the Giants defensively at as many as three positions.

. Johnny Bench played 17 years, and Ivan Rodriguez played 21. Players are playing longer now, and while Buster started in the majors at a later age, he also didn't catch until half a dozen years ago, which should have saved him some wear and tear on his legs.

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[donk]

Feb 6, 2013 10:45:12 GMT -5 sharksrog said:

Boagie -- if Posey did have a weakness (other than his speed after the ankle injury) it's his footwork and blocking.

Rog -- When I see Yadier Molina block a ball, it's almost as if his body eats it. A technique that makes one wonder how a ball ever gets through hit. Buster's technique isn't as good.

dk...glad you admit that part...not mention how lucky he is in stabbing the ball when he is jumping out of the squat trying to avoid getting hit...

Yet one poster continues to put down Buster's work behind the plate and in every other way he can. Buster has a prolonged power slump and suddenly he has no power. The body language this poster sees indicates Buster doesn't get along with his teammates. Etc., etc.

When it comes to some of the Giants' very best players, that poster is a fool. Hey, I'm not even saying the guy is wrong all the time. But what is the point of continually ripping, ripping, ripping, when much of the time the guy is obviously wrong or inappropriate?

dk..well, lets see when you were putting Tim into the HOF, I warned that his mechanics stunk and he would have a problem when he loses his flexibility...mmmm...when you and all but one other guy on tyis board wanted to ditch Crawford because he was making too many errors and he couldn't hit...I said he is probably the best SS the Giants have had in years as for range, throwing arm and making the double play...and when is average was below .200, I said he would hit....and you dug up some twisted stats from one year in A ball to diss him some more...you were quick to diss a whole load of Giants players, but that was OK, but for some strange reason when I suggest things that your "boys" could improve on, I'm a dirty old man.....

I wish the guy would simply examine what it is that makes him take such a questionable stance? If he weren't so obviously biased against the guy and limited the scope of his criticism to more fact and less innuendo, we might take the guy seriously.

dk...you wouldn't take anything I say as a legitiment suggestion as you rip it immediately...but in later writings you squirm into a partial agreement without admitting it.....if I was biased against Posey, why would I want him switched to firstbase? But you can't see that, can you??? and how many experts keep talking about moving him out of catching???

The guy makes some good points here, and he's not afraid to step outside the box. But he seems to get a hard on for certain players, posters and ideas. In other words, the guy destroys the impact of the good ideas he does have.

dk...first time you admit I ever had a good idea....and I am positive you dissed it when I wrote about it......

[sharksrog]

dk..I just never see the Giants spend any time around him in the dugout....

Rog -- I hadn't exactly noticed players staying AWAY from him, but there are a couple of practical reasons there might not be as many players close to him.

. The catcher has added equipment that takes up some space.

. The catcher and the pitcher are more likely to be thinking in the dugout than are the other players.

So much of what you use regarding Buster is innuendo. You seem to go out of your way to find things "wrong" with him, which both comes from being less objective and then adds to your lack of perceived objectivity.

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[sharksrog]

dk- ducking a high fast ball and having the pitch hit the umpire...

Rog -- Apparently he doesn't do this too often. In what has been the equivalent of two seasons, he has 6 passed balls and 57 wild pitches. In Johnny Bench's first two seasons, he had 33 and 118 . In Ivan Rodriguez's first two seasons, he had 18 and 92. In the equivalent of two full seasons, Gary Carter had 18 and 92. Even Yadier Molina had 15 and 51.

I'm not trying to say Buster is as good or better than those premier catchers. What I am trying to say is that Stan Musial had a weird batting stance -- but he could hit like few others. Get off it with Buster.

At least he's taken some of your heat off Tim Lincecum. Nothing quite like picking on an MVP and a two-time Cy Young winner.
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[donk]

[ dk....he does things that me and several of the other teams announcers have never seen before...and the comented on it

Boagie- From my experience, when the other announcers talk about Posey it's always praise.

dk...then I have to guess that you didn't hear the same games that I did....

dk- ducking a high fast ball and having the pitch hit the umpire...

Boagie- I don't recall that happening but it could have if Posey got crossed up or just simply missed the ball. I can tell you this hasn't happened enough that it should be considered a problem. Name any player in baseball and I'm sure that player has made a number of stupid mistakes.

dk...I never saw a catcher duck a pitch...except Buster...

dk- going into the fetal position on inside sliders that the batter swings at....

Boagie- I'm not trying to be difficult here Don, but I'm not really sure what you're talking about. If anyone is assuming the fetal position when our pitchers throw inside sliders, its likely Bochy and Righetti. Sliders on the inside corner usually get hit a long way. Maybe you could be more specific about the "fetal position."

dk...Posey would curl up into a ball on a low, inside slider to a LH batter when the batter swings....that pitch is the strike out for most pitchers...if it is off the plate inside.....the Giants constantly go for high fast balls when they go 0-2.....and I have yet to see batters swing at that pitch because Giants' pitchers seem to throw it too high.....easy take....

dk- jumping up in the air for a pitch in the dirt

Boagie- I have never seen Posey jump up in the air on a pitch in the dirt. If you mean he doesn't get down on balls in the dirt as good as he should, I agree. He does need to drop down and block the ball with his body more.

dk..he jumps out of his squat and sticks his mitt down...and I agree with you, he should get down to block the ball....

dk- this appears to be the way spmeone reacts to being afraid of getting hit with the ball

Boagie- I don't think Posey would be a catcher if he was afraid of getting hit with a baseball. I don't even think he would be able to play baseball period.

dk...I don't think there are many ball players that have some fear of the hard hit/thrown ball in the dirt...it is how well you over come this fear....you can see infielders play balls off to their side instead of trying to get in front of it...it is a human thing that you have to try to overcome.......I never met another paratrooper who didn't have some fear of jumping out of a plane, but most did it when he had to....

dk- ....he has been extremely lucky in stabbing the ball, but it isn't right....and chances are his luck will run out as he continues to slow down....

Boagie- I don't think it's necessarily luck, Posey's got good hands, but you're right, he will have to learn to block with his body more.

dk- the guys on this post ripped Bengie is his last years for being to slow and hitting into double plays...Bengie only exceded Posey's number of hitting into DP's in one year.......Posey hit into 19 DP's...and these are still young...albeit injured ...legs

Boagie- I loved Bengie. He hit into alot of double plays and was slow, but for 3 years he drove in alot of runs for us. When you're doing good things, being slow and hitting into double plays can be overlooked. When you're the Bengie of 2010 and only hitting .257, the speed and double plays stick out like a sore thumb. I'd imagine if Buster were hitting .257 instead of winning MVP awards and batting titles we'd rip on him a little more too. That being said, I hope Buster's speed increases a little, not because it's become a liability, but because getting some speed back would make him even better.

dk..the point is,that almost everyone one of the guys that don't like what I said about Posey, dissed Bengie...who I thought was the type of guy that we needed on the team...they even dissed him for being the 4 hitter when it wasn't normal for him and he had no choice in the matter....they can diss Bengie, but I can't say anything about Posey...

I just can't agree with too many negative things about Buster Posey, Don. I agree with your take on him not using his body as much as he should. But, on the other end of that, we got a guy who has won the RoY, MVP, comeback player of the year, batting title, and was a major cog in an offense that led us to two World Series championships, while also throwing out more base stealers than anyone in baseball in just two full seasons at the major league level. If everything you said was in fact true, I'd still like the guy.

dk...I would never, ever suggest you should not like the guy...I just think you would like him even more if he played first...and Belt played LF.....
[/quote]

[Islandboagie]

Boagie- From my experience, when the other announcers talk about Posey it's always praise.

dk...then I have to guess that you didn't hear the same games that I did....

Boagie- Comments are made all the time about catchers not getting down on balls, or swiping at a ball instead of using the chest protector. I'm sure there's been a comment made by a number of announcers about a certain ball in the dirt Posey could have blocked better. But I doubt any announcer claimed Buster is not capable of catching, and would be better suited for first base. Just about every announcer in the NL west rants and raves about Buster and his talent and the way he carries himself.

dk...Posey would curl up into a ball on a low, inside slider to a LH batter when the batter swings....that pitch is the strike out for most pitchers...if it is off the plate inside.....the Giants constantly go for high fast balls when they go 0-2.....and I have yet to see batters swing at that pitch because Giants' pitchers seem to throw it too high.....easy take....

Boagie- I've never seen Posey curl up in a ball. And Matt Cain has made a career of blowing away hitters with the high fastball.

dk...I would never, ever suggest you should not like the guy...I just think you would like him even more if he played first...and Belt played LF.....

Boagie- Posey and Belt are great defensively at their main positions. Posey however is an average to below average first baseman and Belt is a below average outfielder. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't like them at their secondary positions.

[sharksrog]

Don -- Once more, good old Rog cherry picked and left out what I wrote that proves what I said and what he accuses me of not proving....one, Posey was not in the first nine guys picked when they rated they rated catchers win fielding....two, and he finished i6th in runs saved as a catcher with 0 runs saved...you read it,why not do the decent thing and talk about it instead of twisting what I wrote

Rog -- Although you'll have to show me where I twisted something you wrote, you make a good point here. I didn't specifically address the points you made about these two statistical analyses of catchers. That said, I have addressed it in many ways here and previously, including:

. Acknowledging the ratings you point out here.

. Indicate that fielding is very tough to evaluate (statistically or otherwise), especially for a catcher.

. Indicate that evaluating fielding is very subjective, and in regard to a catcher, can depend in part on which factors are evaluated and how they are weighted.

. I have mentioned that I value John Dewan's defensive evaluations above the others, since they are based on seeing every play made by every player. Dewan rated Buster #5, which is precisely where he finished in the poll.

. In his Fielding Bible III, written after the 2011 season and his most recent in his biennial writings, Dewan spoke of Posey's good throwing and his keeping the ball in front of him (regardless of what you think) with runners on base. He does mention that Buster will sometimes rush his fielding of a soft grounder or a pickup after knocking down a pitch in the dirt. Although I still wouldn't call it a strength, that seems to me to be an area in which Buster improved in 2012.

. Regarding the play at the plate on which Buster was so badly injured in 2011, Dewan stated "That single unfortunate play caused many fans and analysts to advocate a position change to keep the budding superstar out of harm's way when his career resumes, but it is the defensive talent he demonstarted bbefore that play that may ultimately encourage the Giants to let Posey maintain his natural position." It may be noteworthy that even though Buster was a shortstop until half a decade or so before, Dewan mentioned CATCHER as his natural position.

Sorry, Don. You're coming off here as a grouchy man showing off his sour grapes.

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[Islandboagie]

In his Fielding Bible III, written after the 2011 season and his most recent in his biennial writings, Dewan spoke of Posey's good throwing and his keeping the ball in front of him (regardless of what you think) with runners on base. He does mention that Buster will sometimes rush his fielding of a soft grounder or a pickup after knocking down a pitch in the dirt. Although I still wouldn't call it a strength, that seems to me to be an area in which Buster improved in 2012.

Boagie- Why do you quote the fielding bible like it's a viable source of information?

[sharksrog]

Boagie- Why do you quote the fielding bible like it's a viable source of information?

Rog -- Because it is? Remember, it is based on watcing every play by every player.

I was just thinking it might be intriguing to see what he said about Marco Scutaro. Remember, his 3rd Fielding Bible was written a year ago, so Marco was evaluated as a shortstop.

He was considered to have made fewer good plays than the average shortstop and made a few more misplays. But he was considered to be a solid shortstop, even though it was felt his best days in the field were (not surprisingly) behind him. He was considered average of arm and at turning double plays.

I know I liked him better at second base this year than Boly did. I didn't think his range was anywhere close to Jeff Keppinger (who was ranked as the #30 among second basemen -- out of 30). I thought he was pretty darn good at turning the double play.

Part of what makes fielding hard to judge is that one player can look really good by making a diving play, while another makes the play more routinely and doesn't look as if he is fielding as well. And a smooth fielder looks better than a herky-jerky guy, even though they may be equal in actual effectiveness.

And sometimes guys play better at one time than another. Brandon Crawford and Angel Pagan were two clear examples of players whose defense improved markedly as the season went on.

Anyway, Boagie, do you have a better source for fielding evaluation? If you do, tell me about it. Since fielding is so hard to judge, I would love to read it.

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[sharksrog]

Don -- if I was biased against Posey, why would I want him switched to firstbase?

Rog -- Because you're biased against him as a catcher?

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