|
Post by sharksrog on Jan 29, 2013 10:58:16 GMT -5
Introducing your 2013 Giants (maybe):
Starting Pitchers:
Matt Cain Madison Bumgarner Ryan Vogelsong Tim Lincecum Barry Zito
Relief Pitchers:
Sergio Romo Santiago Casilla Jeremy Affeldt Brandon Lyon Javier Lopez George Kontos Jose Mijares
Catchers:
Buster Posey Hector Sanchez
First baseman:
Brandon Belt
Second basemen:
Marco Scutaro Kensuke Tanaka
Shortstops:
Brandon Crawford Joaquin Arias
Third baseman:
Pablo Sandoval
Outfielders:
Angel Pagan Hunter Pence Gregor Blanco Andres Torres Francisco Peguero
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jan 30, 2013 11:08:39 GMT -5
Rog- Second basemen:
Marco Scutaro Kensuke Tanaka
Boagie- During the Baker/Alou years Tanaka would be a lock, under Bochy I'd have to give Gillespie and Noonan the advantage right now. Tanaka has suffered a few injuries over the last number of years that have limited his speed and his range.
Gillespie is out of options, and Noonan had a solid season in Fresno.
Also, Arias is more of a defensive replacement, the other backup infielder SHOULD be a decent pinch hitting option. A guy with Burris-like power (Tanaka) isn't a decent option.
Rog- Outfielders:
Angel Pagan Hunter Pence Gregor Blanco Andres Torres Francisco Peguero
Boagie- Peguero seems like the obvious choice because he was with the team last year down the stretch. But, like my issue with the infield..Torres already fits the speedy outfielder who can play all 3 positions. I think my choice would be Pill or Keischnick for the 5th outfield spot.
Pill proved to be decent in left field, and also provided a little pop off the bench. He can also play first base.
Keischnick, like Noonan, had a solid year in Fresno and deserves his shot.
You're certainly not off base by your predicted roster, but three spots are totally up in the air at this point.
We know 22 spots are a guaranteed lock.
For argument sake, I'll say Brian Wilson drops the hurt ego routine and signs a 1 year deal with incentives.
Noonan and Keischnick round off the 24th and 25th spots.
|
|
donk
New Member
Posts: 23
|
Post by donk on Jan 30, 2013 14:14:26 GMT -5
Rog- Second basemen: Marco Scutaro Kensuke Tanaka Boagie- During the Baker/Alou years Tanaka would be a lock, under Bochy I'd have to give Gillespie and Noonan the advantage right now. Tanaka has suffered a few injuries over the last number of years that have limited his speed and his range. Gillespie is out of options, and Noonan had a solid season in Fresno. dk...despite all the talk of moving Gillaspie(Gillespi is an outfielder) to second base, he has yet to play second since he has been a pro....2 games in the OF and 29 at 1B....the rest at 3rd.....I wonder if Brock Bond is still around....at least he has played 2nd...little power, unknown (by me) fielding....has some fair minor league numbers but bears the onus of being a big mistake by Sabean....he was drafted by mistake, they wanted the other Bond...who never made it with the Giants...
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Jan 30, 2013 20:36:26 GMT -5
Boagie- During the Baker/Alou years Tanaka would be a lock, under Bochy I'd have to give Gillespie and Noonan the advantage right now. Tanaka has suffered a few injuries over the last number of years that have limited his speed and his range. Gillespie is out of options, and Noonan had a solid season in Fresno. Rog -- Some good points here, Boagie, and they could point to keeping Conor up. But here was my thinking. First, Gillaspie seems ill-suited to almost any role. He's not a good fielder who isn't capable of playing the middle infield at all. Then there is the problem that doesn't hit for enough power for a poor-fielding corner infielder. Which also doesn't give him enough power to be a DH, which is his best fielding position. Keeping Conor rather than exposing him to waivers would be about the only reason to keep him, although he walks enough that he might be the best hitter of the trio. So while I don't favor it, I guess I could see the logic behind keeping him. What I would probably do though is try to trade him for at least SOMETHING, and if he can't be traded, he might well pass through waivers anyway. Noonan had a good season in 2012, but he hasn't had much success after being drafted #32 overall in 2007. He's an average second baseman and below average at shortstop. He hits for little power (.380 career SLG) and doesn't get on base much (.322 career OBP). He's probably out of options too, but so what? I just can't see either Gillaspie or Noonan being much of a difference maker. Gillaspie could be a so-so hitter, but he can't field. Noonan seems unlikely to hit much, and I don't think his glove is good enough to overcome his lack of offense. I find Tanaka more intriguing. In part it depends on how much he is able to recover from his 2011 injury. He hit .300 last season, but he wasn't nearly the offensive presence he had been prior to the injury. Tanaka was rated his league's #11, #2, #3 and #4 hitter the four seasons prior to his 2011 injury. He had five straight seasons with 20 or more steals, including a high of 34 in 2010. He walked enough to get on base, and he didn't strike out a lot. In five of his six full seasons, his OBP was .350 or higher, with a high of .408 in 2010. He doesn't have much power, but he did hit for over a base and a half per hit in 2008. Manny Burriss has never come CLOSE to that. Also, Arias is more of a defensive replacement, the other backup infielder SHOULD be a decent pinch hitting option. A guy with Burris-like power (Tanaka) isn't a decent option. Fortunately the Giants have Arias as their primary infield utilityman. He can field pretty well and hit southpaws. He's very versatile and a speedy base runner. Of the other three guys, Tanaka is the only one I see as being a solid option. As you point out, his injuries may prevent him from being that option, but I think he's the only one of the three who is likely to have the potential to be. I'm pretty much guessing with regard to Tanaka's making the roster. I did read on commentator who also predicted it, but I suspect he also was guessing at least in part. But just for the heck of it, let me predict that Tanaka will become the Blanco or Arias of 2013. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#8553#ixzz2JVjf8sNa
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Jan 30, 2013 21:17:06 GMT -5
Boagie- Peguero seems like the obvious choice because he was with the team last year down the stretch. But, like my issue with the infield..Torres already fits the speedy outfielder who can play all 3 positions. I think my choice would be Pill or Keischnick for the 5th outfield spot. Rog -- I nearly picked Kieschnick, but his injury likely set him back, and he's a guy who strikes out a LOT and doesn't walk much. Not a good combination, but he did post an impressive .980 OPS prior to being injured last season. He's kind of a Nate Schierholtz type, with speed and a good arm. But he doesn't appear likely to hit for as much average as Nate, perhaps because he strikes out a lot more. Assuming Gillaspie, Noonan or Tanaka is the second backup infielder, all of that trio hits left-handed, perhaps also hurting the lefty-hitting Kieschnck's chances. As for Pill, that's a good idea on your part. I don't see him as much of an outfielder, but he isn't a total loss there, and he clearly has more power than any of the infield or outfield backups to the backup that we're talking about here. Although they don't want to do so, the Giants could play Brandon Belt in left field and Pill at first base. When Buster played at first base, he could temporarily take Pill's place. But Brett either doesn't hit the ball consistently hard, or he hits the ball in the same places often enough that he can be defensed. Despite not striking out much for a guy with power, he has hit for only a .280 career minor league average. That means he's not getting enough hits on balls he puts into the field of play. I have warned about hitters who have big seasons when their Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is higher than usual. In Brett's case, his baseline BABIP seems to be too low. Even when he hit his career-high .312 in 2011, his BABIP was just .311. Most hitters strike out more in the majors than in the minors (especially, players whose minor league numbers have been put up at a late age for the competition level). Most hitters don't get on base as often on balls in play in the majors as in the minors. Brett would have to buck both those trends in order to be a good major league hitter. He has a career .239 batting average and a .702 OPS. That's pretty meager for a corner infielder or outfielder. Might he do better than that if he stays up again? Probably. Might he do a lot better? Probably not. Here's the way I look at Brett. A corner player should have power. Brett has a little. A player with power should be feared enough that he walks a lot. Brett doesn't. Brett isn't likely to hit for much average. He hits for decent power, but not heavy power. He doesn't walk, which when coupled with not hitting for a high average, means his OBP is low. Even in the minors, Brett's is only .328. As a major leaguer, it is only .283. It seems unlikely to me that Brett will get on base enough to be a good hitter. He doesn't hit for average; he hits for power that is average at best for a corner player; and he doesn't get on base much. For a corner player, that's unacceptable, even in a backup role. Brett's glove isn't enough to carry him at first base, and elsewhere it is somewhat marginal. I'm not a fan of Francisco Peguero. Marc and I used to argue about him, which tells you how early in Francisco's career I soured on him. I see the 5th outfield spot as a weakness even for a fifth outfield spot. But Peguero is a clearly better fielder than Kieschnick and a much better fielder than Pill. He is cleary the best base runner of the three. He is the only one of the trio with a minor league average higher than .280 (.305). You are right that he is somewhat duplicative of what Andres Torres brings, but of the three players we have mentioned as being in the running for the 5th outfielder spot, he gets the slightest of nods from me as being the most likely to win the spot. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JVrh8xSa
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Jan 30, 2013 21:18:20 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jan 30, 2013 22:24:01 GMT -5
Noonan had a good season in 2012, but he hasn't had much success after being drafted #32 overall in 2007. He's an average second baseman and below average at shortstop. He hits for little power (.380 career SLG) and doesn't get on base much (.322 career OBP). He's probably out of options too, but so what?
Boagie- First of all I don't think Noonan has been on the 40 man roster for 3 years, but I could be wrong.
Secondly, I don't know who will have a good spring, and that's probably what will be the deciding factor in who makes the team. So I won't argue who will make the team and who won't. But, I think you're selling Noonan a little short by taking his career minor league numbers over last years numbers. You know as well as anyone that high school draftees usually go through alot of growing pains. Using Noonan's overall numbers doesn't make a lot of sense considering he just had a nice season at the AAA level. Obviously if he's showing good signs in Fresno then his poor numbers at a lower level weren't totally accurate as to the type of player he was, or would later become.
Noonan is 23, is a decent hitter, with some gap-to-gap power, has some speed, is decent with the glove, and is versatile. I'd say that's probably good enough for being the backup infielder behind Arias.
Your point about Conor is a good one, he is likely the best hitter of the bunch, and because of that it might give him a legitimate shot at winning the job. Afterall, with Arias as the primary backup infielder, I think whoever gets the other spot will likely be used more as a pinch hitter on a regular basis than anything else. The same could ring true for the 5th outfield spot behind Torres.
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Jan 31, 2013 13:02:42 GMT -5
Boagie- First of all I don't think Noonan has been on the 40 man roster for 3 years, but I could be wrong. Rog -- You're not only right here, you're WAY right. I was guessing Nick was placed on the 40-man roster after the 2009 season, given that he was signed in 2007. A player doesn't have to be on the 40-man roster until after his 3rd season (which may mean his 3rd FULL season), and then he has three options. I believe that is correct, but players no so protected are eligible to be drafted, but must be kept on the 25-man roster (or DL or perhaps suspended list) for a year. It was unlikely until after his good season at Fresno last season that Nick would be drafted. He is actually on the 40-man roster for the first time, meaning the Giants don't have to make a final decision until the beginning of the 2015 season. That the Giants didn't feel the need to place Nick on the 40-man roster until either two or three years after they needed to in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft may be an indication of their thinking regarding him. Toward you point, it may also indicate how important his 2012 season was to their evaluation of Noonan. Boagie -- Secondly, I don't know who will have a good spring, and that's probably what will be the deciding factor in who makes the team. So I won't argue who will make the team and who won't. Rog -- Good point. You know I like to talk about anything Giants, and not much was going on with the board, so I thought I would take my best shot at the roster, almost certainly generating some discussion. I think Tanaka may have the inside track for that final infield spot. Boagie -- But, I think you're selling Noonan a little short by taking his career minor league numbers over last years numbers. You know as well as anyone that high school draftees usually go through alot of growing pains. Using Noonan's overall numbers doesn't make a lot of sense considering he just had a nice season at the AAA level. Obviously if he's showing good signs in Fresno then his poor numbers at a lower level weren't totally accurate as to the type of player he was, or would later become. Rog -- You make another good point here. That said, I think the overall minor league numbers are usually more useful in their evaluation. Let's talk about some examples: How did the present Giants position players fare in the minors as compared with Fresno. Buster Posey and Brandon Belt were great no matter where they played. Hector Sanchez played better in the minor leagues overall than he did at Fresno, and he made the majors at age 21. Marco Scutaro hit .293 with an .806 OPS in AAA, almost identical to his .290/.803 overall in the minors. Joaquin Arias hit .274/.680 in AAA; .280/.696 overall. No AAA breakout. Pablo Sandoval skipped AAA entirely, with the exception of a couple of rehab assignments. Angel Pagan hit .269/.736 in AAA compared to .280/.716 overall. No AAA breakout. Hunter Pence played only 25 games in AAA, going .326/.945 compared to .305/.932 overall. No AAA breakouts for those guys. Gregor Blanco hit .261/.699 at AAA; .265/.731 overall in the minors. Nary a one of the present Giants hitters broke out in AAA. On the other side of the coin, Todd Linden had a .321/1.120 (!) breakout at Fresno. John Bowker went .342/ 1.047 and then .310/.982 there. At the very least, I think we should be suspicious of AAA breakouts -- in part because the Pacific Coast League is a hitters' league. Noonan is 23, is a decent hitter, with some gap-to-gap power, has some speed, is decent with the glove, and is versatile. I'd say that's probably good enough for being the backup infielder behind Arias. Your point about Conor is a good one, he is likely the best hitter of the bunch, and because of that it might give him a legitimate shot at winning the job. Afterall, with Arias as the primary backup infielder, I think whoever gets the other spot will likely be used more as a pinch hitter on a regular basis than anything else. The same could ring true for the 5th outfield spot behind Torres. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#8562#ixzz2JZbl3J00
|
|
donk
New Member
Posts: 23
|
Post by donk on Jan 31, 2013 15:29:48 GMT -5
It would have been nice if the Giants had signed Tom Neal to a minor league contract...funny that Cleveland jumped him from AA to the majors and then dropped him after a few games....the Yanks recently signed him, but today the Yanks signed Hafner...the Yanks needed a RH bat and they sign another lefty....and more shocking, the Yanks signing up the Indians castoffs....Neal had good stats in the Eastern League, something Giants' prospects have a problem doing....some, not all...
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jan 31, 2013 23:42:03 GMT -5
Rog- Gregor Blanco hit .261/.699 at AAA; .265/.731 overall in the minors.
Nary a one of the present Giants hitters broke out in AAA.
On the other side of the coin, Todd Linden had a .321/1.120 (!) breakout at Fresno. John Bowker went .342/ 1.047 and then .310/.982 there.
At the very least, I think we should be suspicious of AAA breakouts -- in part because the Pacific Coast League is a hitters' league.
Boagie- I agree that consistency is important. But I think it's also worth mentioning that Noonan's career numbers in the minors are very close to Blanco and Crawford's numbers, who are both major leaguers and played integral parts to the 2012 team and are slated as starters this year.
Let's also remember that Linden and Bowker were a few years older than Noonan when they had their "breakout" years in Fresno. Linden was also drafted out of college and spent a long time in Fresno before he "broke out."
Blanco played 9 seasons in the minors.
Rog- Hector Sanchez played better in the minor leagues overall than he did at Fresno, and he made the majors at age 21.
Boagie- I'm really glad you mentioned Hector Sanchez. If you recall I was the first to mention his chance of making the majors after the Posey injury. Lest we not forget my track record of farm system predictions in recent years. Sanchez I made a bold, correct prediction on. I was a huge Blanco fan last year. Disagreeing how they rushed up Belt. Agreeing how they rushed up Crawford and held off Posey. I'm sure I've been wrong recently too, but I tend to conveniently forget those instances.
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 1, 2013 0:18:09 GMT -5
Boagie- I agree that consistency is important. But I think it's also worth mentioning that Noonan's career numbers in the minors are very close to Blanco and Crawford's numbers, who are both major leaguers and played integral parts to the 2012 team and are slated as starters this year. Rog -- Good points again. A key difference between Blanco and Noonan though is that Blanco walked about twice as often in the minors as Noonan has. With regard to Crawford, Nick may be a BETTER hitter than Brandon, but Crawford is in the bigs for his glove, not his bat. Noonan's glove doesn't compare with Crawford, making it tough for him to compete with Brandon. Could Nick be a utility infielder? I don't see why not. I just don't think he will be a good one. I'm hoping Tanaka comes through, as I think Kensuke has more immediate potential than does Noonan. I think Kensuke will prevail, but as you point out, it could be a 3-way battle between Noonan, Tanaka and Conor Gillaspie. Heck, Brett Pill might even join the equation, or perhaps his ablity to play a nice first base in addition to a passable left field will complement his right-handed power bat to allow him to be a combination 5th outfielder/7th infielder. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#8567#ixzz2JcZ6kbMd
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Feb 1, 2013 10:58:14 GMT -5
Rog -- Good points again. A key difference between Blanco and Noonan though is that Blanco walked about twice as often in the minors as Noonan has.
Boagie- Agreed. Blanco also has more speed and a great glove in the outfield. That said, Noonan isn't slow, and has more power than Blanco and Tanaka. I guess it comes down to what kind of player would compliment Arias the best.
My worry with Tanaka is his lack of extra base hits. Last season in Japan he had 20 extra base hits in 457 at-bats. Noonan had 38 extra base hits in 490 at-bats. Thats 18 more extra base hits in only 33 more at-bats. Which leads me to believe Tanaka is primarily a singles hitter, and will get the "Burriss treatment" at AT&T. Singles hitters in Japan are usually slap hitters who use their speed and the fast turf to get on base. Tanaka, over the past few years (because of some injuries) has lost a step or two on the base paths. In Japan last season he stole 13 bases while getting thrown out 9 times, that's too high of a percentage of getting thrown out to be a threat on the base paths anymore. His number of attempts is apparent to me that he refuses to change his style of play. His lack of speed has also likely affected his defense. Remember, these numbers are also compiled in Japan which is considered the equivalent of AA in the U.S.
Tanaka might have been a good player in his day, but I believe that day has come and gone for him.
Rog- With regard to Crawford, Nick may be a BETTER hitter than Brandon, but Crawford is in the bigs for his glove, not his bat. Noonan's glove doesn't compare with Crawford, making it tough for him to compete with Brandon.
Boagie- Very true, Brandon is obviously there because of his glove. But, Brandon also contributed with his bat last season. Plus, Nick won't be competing with Brandon, he'll be competing with Tanaka who also isn't likely as good a defender as Crawford is.
Obviousy, I hope I'm wrong about Tanaka, but to me he seems more like an insurance policy than a front runner.
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 1, 2013 12:58:12 GMT -5
Boagie- I'm really glad you mentioned Hector Sanchez. If you recall I was the first to mention his chance of making the majors after the Posey injury. Rog -- I thought Hector would have benefited from more minor league experience, and I still suspect that is the case. Hector wound up catching both Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito, which attests to his ability as a catcher. That said, most consider him to be far from a polished produce behind the dish. Hector was highly though of at the plate, delivering some key hits. But clutch hitting is for the most part a non-repeatable stat, so I wouldn't necessarily expect Hector to continue to hit in the clutch this season. As for his overall hitting, it isn't really very good. Anyone with an OBP below .300 probably shouldn't be playing, and Hector's was just .295. He accumulated only 94 bases while making 168 outs. That's not very good. It resulted in only 3.7 runs created per 27 outs, which means that nine Hector Sanchez's in the lineup would be expected to created just 3.7 runs per 9-inning game. Even with the Giants' good pitching, that won't win a lot of games. The good news for Hector is that he's just 23 years of age and has plenty of time to develop. Even now though, that would quite possibly be best accomplished in the minors. I hope to be wrong -- and with this past year of seasoning under his belt, I well could be -- but to me Hector is an overrated hitter who is below average behind the plate. Of course, that's not horrible for a backup, but I would like to see Hector play well enough that he could be traded at some point to a team that would install him as their starter. If he is viewed as a starter, he could bring a nice return. Left-handed hitting catchers (or, even better, a switch hitter) are a valuable commodity. Boagie -- Lest we not forget my track record of farm system predictions in recent years. Sanchez I made a bold, correct prediction on. Rog -- Let's see how Hector plays out this coming season. He was a fairly capable backup last season, and he's still just 23. I do think he would be a better player this year had he had enjoyed the luxury of playing in the minors at least part of last season. Boagie -- I was a huge Blanco fan last year. Disagreeing how they rushed up Belt. Agreeing how they rushed up Crawford and held off Posey. Rog -- Gregor walks a lot and is a great fielder. Belt was brought up primarly because of the injury to Cody Ross. (I have to admit I thought he would be ready, but if not for the injury, the Giants would have almost certainly treated him much as they did Buster Posey.) Hard to say whether bringing up Crawford when they did has benefited him or them. I think Buster could have come up earlier and been just fine. The point is that aside from your correct call on Belt and the obvious inclusion of Blanco (whose job it was pretty much to lose entering spring training last year, even though he wsan't well-known to the fans), it is hard to say whether the Giants went the right direction. As a for-instance, Crawford was a much better hitter in last season's second half. Perhaps had he stayed at Fresno all of the 2011 season, he would have hit that way all season in 2012. We just don't know. Boagie -- I'm sure I've been wrong recently too, but I tend to conveniently forget those instances. Rog -- I like your humor here, Boagie. Even the best of scouts aren't right all the time. My biggest mistakes have come by underrating Pablo Sandoval (didn't give him enough credit for his young age and held his poor K/BB ratio against more than I should have for a Latin player) and (thus far) overrating Brandon Belt. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JfZSsFR1
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 1, 2013 13:50:47 GMT -5
Boagie -- That said, Noonan isn't slow, and has more power than Blanco and Tanaka. I guess it comes down to what kind of player would compliment Arias the best. My worry with Tanaka is his lack of extra base hits. Last season in Japan he had 20 extra base hits in 457 at-bats. Noonan had 38 extra base hits in 490 at-bats. Thats 18 more extra base hits in only 33 more at-bats. Which leads me to believe Tanaka is primarily a singles hitter, and will get the "Burriss treatment" at AT&T. Singles hitters in Japan are usually slap hitters who use their speed and the fast turf to get on base. Tanaka, over the past few years (because of some injuries) has lost a step or two on the base paths. In Japan last season he stole 13 bases while getting thrown out 9 times, that's too high of a percentage of getting thrown out to be a threat on the base paths anymore. His number of attempts is apparent to me that he refuses to change his style of play. His lack of speed has also likely affected his defense. Remember, these numbers are also compiled in Japan which is considered the equivalent of AA in the U.S. Tanaka might have been a good player in his day, but I believe that day has come and gone for him. Rog -- Very nice analysis. To me, the question is whether Tanaka is fully healthy again. Tanaka hasn't been the same player since his 2011 injury (which I speculated was to his leg). In the four seasons immediately prior to the injury, though, he was ranked his league's #11, #2, #3 and #4 hitter. Noonan has never been ranked anywhere close to that high. In those four seasons prior to his injury -- in fact, over his entire career to that point -- Tanaka showed a little pop. In those four seasons, he averaged 1.35 bases per hit, which is usually enough to keep outfielders somewhat honest. After the injury, though, you have a very good point. He has averaged just 1.21 bases per hit, which is better than Burriss, but not by much. If he once again is well, I think his power will be passable. If not, I agree with you, for much the same reasons I (sadly) predicted against Manny. As you pointed out, his ability to steal dropped markedly. In the two seasons prior to his injury, he stole 65 bases in 87 attempts. That's better than any Giants player did over that two-year period. Since the injury, though, he has stolen only 21 out of 33 over a two-year period. That has hurt his team more than helped. Even if healthy, I doubt he will be stealing 30 bases as season as he did in 2009 and 2010. But, if healthy, he should still be a good base runner, capable of pinch running if needed. To me, the whole key is whether he is fully healthy. If not, he still might make the team due to a lack of competition, but he wouldn't be likely to help much. If he is once again healthy, though, I think he could be a good backup, a nice guy to pinch hit against righties to lead off an inning or keep it going, and a good pinch runner. Keep in mind, I know nothing about the guy other than what I see in the stats. I've done absolutely no scouting of him, nor have I read anything written by anyone who has. On the other hand, I have seen a tiny bit of Noonan and Gillaspie. I'm not holding this against him, but I saw Nick make two throwing errors in one inning. IIRC, one came on a double play pivot, and was a "normal" error. The other was a fluke. He fielded a routine ground ball, had the ball slip as he threw, and nearly threw the ball into the dugout on a very routine and short throw. It was almost Sax-ian. Nick averaged 1.41 bases per hit last season, which was right at his career 1.42. His best was 1.53 in 2009, which was the year I saw him play (4/10/2009, the San Jose debut of Madison Bumgarner, throwing to Buster Posey). Tanaka's best was 1.52 in 2008. Prior to his injury, Tanaka was a little below 1.40 bases per hit, while Noonan is a little above. Nick's highs have been 9 home runs and 8 triples in separate seasons. Tanaka's highs have been 11 home runs and 9 triples in the same season. Noonan's numbers came in slightly fewer at bats and are within a pro-rated whisker of Tanaka's. If Tanaka is healthy, I think Noonan will still have a little more power -- but only a little. Tanaka would likely be the better base stealer. Nick has a high of 29 in the low minors, but has stolen only 27 bases over the past four seasons. Tanaka takes a TON more walks, and his average even after his injury equals Nick's .296 at Fresno. Don't be overly excited by Noonan's .296 at Fresno last season. It was certainly a big improvment for him, but as Don will remind us, in smaller samples, Jason Ellison hit .406 there; Kevin Frandsen hit .403; and even Clay Timpner was hitting in similar territory when he was called up to the Giants and fanned in each of his only two major league at bats. I saw a little film of Nick's swing when he was drafted. I liked it. But he has been an overall disappointment thus far. He hit a lot better at Fresno last season, but many hitters have prospered there and yet gone on to do little for the Giants. I kind of like your idea of Gillaspie better. Also a lefty hitter, Conor is very limited in the field, but he does get on base and has a hint of power (12 homers in 2011 and 14 last season). Conor's career OBP is .358 in the minors, which is good. It is his .420 SLG that is clearly low for a third baseman. He plays only the two corner infield positions, although he could possibly be taught to at least fill in at the keystone, and he has played two games in left field. Tanaka has an average over .300 in the past five seasons combined. Gillaspie and particularly Noonan havn't approached that figure over the five seasons together. That Noonan is out of options might give him the edge here. An unhealthy Tanaka might be the worst of the three options. But I think a healthy Kensuke could be the best player of the trio. Based on hitting only, I would probably take Gillaspie. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JfhdnVo2
|
|
donk
New Member
Posts: 23
|
Post by donk on Feb 1, 2013 14:10:15 GMT -5
Somethings we should consider in rating Sanchez...he was picked to catch Lincecum, the hardest pitcher on the Giants to guess where his pitch is going to end up.....he did much better with the bat when they dropped him in the batting order as the middle of the order in the midst of the race and beat up in catching Tim was a little too much for the youngster.... he did much better hitting right handed...meaning they should consider only catching him against LH'ers and let Posey catch whom ever is due in the rotation....or they should try Hector as a full time RH hitter....the stats during the closing month of the season is encouraging...let's see what he could do with catching guys who throw strikes....and isn't nice to have someone who can block the plate when he has to???>
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Feb 2, 2013 11:54:06 GMT -5
Rog -- Let's see how Hector plays out this coming season. He was a fairly capable backup last season, and he's still just 23. I do think he would be a better player this year had he had enjoyed the luxury of playing in the minors at least part of last season.
Boagie- I agree. I also agree with your assesment of Sanchez last year. He was a decent backup but wasn't a great hitter. But for his age and experience he performed wonderfully overall. And most importantly he was much better than Whiteside or Stewart, which was really the issue going into 2012. I agree with letting our prospects have their time in the minors, unless of course those prospects are obviously better than the major league player at their position. That was how alot of our young players made it to the majors..Sanchez, Crawford, and Sandoval. Those instances made sense to me.
Now we get to Brandon Belt, whom I still love btw. You're right about Brandon, he was on the team because Ross was injured. But there was alot of talk about him making the team even before Ross's injury. Then Ross gets injured and makes Bochy's decision easier.
However, If he was just replacing an injured player, why does he start opening day? At the time Nate Schierholtz was a better option. For outfielders that day we had Nate, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell, Andres Torres, and even Mark DeRosa. Aubrey Huff played RF that day because they wanted Belt at 1st base. We weren't in a situation where we needed Belt. We just won the World Series, we had capable players. The Giants handled that situation very poorly, as far as I'm concerned that's not really up for debate.
Your statement, which COULD be correct, was that we don't know if that had anything to do with Belt's struggles over the last few years. This is one of those instances where it's easier to play stupid rather than just admitting that you were wrong. We have evidence right in front of us.
You, yourself, said Crawford could have benefitted from more time in Fresno. While I think Crawford has learned to hit major league pitching, and play a great short stop, you're probably right. He could have, and maybe should have. But as I mentioned before, he was likely the best option we had at SS. Certainly better than Tejada.
Everyone was wanting Posey to be the starting catcher in 2010. Sabean and Bochy thought better of it and signed Bengie to a 1 year deal. Buster was held off until late june when he came up and immediately caught fire, going on to win the RoY, 2 years later winning the MVP.
Madison Bumgarner spent his time at every level. As did Cain. I'd say they both turned out pretty well.
Pablo Sandoval was rushed up. Pablo has been good, but as we know, conditioning and patience at the plate has been an ongoing issue with Pablo. Perhaps some of that could have been fixed in AAA, perhaps not, but it couldn't have hurt. Pablo wasn't brought up because we were in a pennant race and needed help. He was brought up because our team just plain stunk and the fans needed something to cheer for.
So with all this evidence in front of us, wouldn't it be fairly clear that players who get their fair share of time in AAA usually benefit from it?
The best analogy I can think of is...You're hungry, so you go to the fridge and all you see are some hotdogs. You want a quick meal so you grab a hotdog and stick it in the microwave for 2 minutes. It comes out looking fine, and you eat it. A few minutes later you take out another hotdog and put it in the microwave, this time you set the time for 1 minute. You take it out and the hotdog is barely warm. So you put it in for 2 more minutes. You open the microwave and the hotdog has exploded. So apparently 1 minute, and 3 minutes doesn't work for hotdogs. Do you refuse to believe that 1 minute or 3 minutes is too short or too long? or do you stick with around 2 minutes assuming that is the perfect time for a hotdog?
1 min hotdog- Brandon Belt, Hector Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval 2 min hotdog- Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain 3 min hotdog- Damon Minor, Todd Linden, Kevin Frandsen
Which hotdog are you going to want to build your team around?
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 3, 2013 12:14:36 GMT -5
Don -- Somethings we should consider in rating Sanchez...he was picked to catch Lincecum, the hardest pitcher on the Giants to guess where his pitch is going to end up..... Rog -- I don't think we know the real reason Tim (and/or the Giants) chose Hector to catch Tim, but two ideas that have posited include not beating up Buster for one, and Buster's being cerebral in pitch-calling while Tim chooses pitches more by feeling. Since last season Tim began throwing more pitches that bounced in fron of the plate, the first makes sense (although I don't really think it is the answer). Given the approaches of the two players, the latter also makes sense (although I don't think it is the full story, either). Perhaps one day we'll learn the reason or combination of reasons. Don -- he did much better with the bat when they dropped him in the batting order as the middle of the order in the midst of the race and beat up in catching Tim was a little too much for the youngster.... Rog -- This is speculation, although it is true that Hector hit better when he hit between sixth and eighth. But it wasn't as if he hit better as the season went along. He did his best hitting in May, July and September, and his worst hitting in April, June and August. The statement that being "beat up in catching Tim was a little too much for the youngster...." is pure speculation, although it is true that Buster hit better after he stopped catching Tim and that Hector hit just so-so in the games in which he caught Tim. In order to do much more than speculate though, we have to draw a questionable cause-and-effect relationship from small samples. Don -- he did much better hitting right handed...meaning they should consider only catching him against LH'ers and let Posey catch whom ever is due in the rotation.... Rog -- That augurs against the conclusion that Hector does a better job of catching Tim, which isn't backed up by the statistics anyway. Don -- or they should try Hector as a full time RH hitter.... Rog -- Changing hitters from switch hitters back to their natural side doesn't usually work, does it? The last example I can think of was Darren Ford. Didn't work too well for Darren. Hector -- the stats during the closing month of the season is encouraging... Rog -- He had his second-worst month of the season in August. Hard to say whether we should be encouraged by his September or not. Don -- let's see what he could do with catching guys who throw strikes.... Rog -- All pitchers throw strikes. Some throw more than others. Don -- and isn't nice to have someone who can block the plate when he has to???> Rog -- Only a fool would make such a comment. On the one hand, it is obvious. On the other, it shows a massive lack of understanding of subtleties. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#8576#ixzz2Jr60p5gu
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 3, 2013 12:18:23 GMT -5
Boagie -- And most importantly he was much better than Whiteside or Stewart, which was really the issue going into 2012. Rog -- I don't know quite how to evaluate Stewart. He had the quickest release I have ever seen by a catcher, but he also made a lot of throwing errors. Pitchers seemed to pitch well to him, though, and if a catcher can bring out the best in a pitcher, he can probably be effective even if he hits as Stewart does. But once again, is there a cause and effect in play? Hard to know based on a small sample. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JrDM3GNe
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 3, 2013 12:31:06 GMT -5
Boagie -- I agree with letting our prospects have their time in the minors, unless of course those prospects are obviously better than the major league player at their position. That was how alot of our young players made it to the majors..Sanchez, Crawford, and Sandoval. Those instances made sense to me. Rog -- The case of Pablo is a very strange one. Pablo was not brought up to be the Giants' third baseman. He was brought up simultaneously with Ryan Rohlinger, who was actually the who was given the shot there. In fact, Pablo had failed at third base, his primary position in 2005, his first full minor league season. Pablo hadn't played an inning at the position in 2007 or in 2008 -- until his good hitting as a catcher, first baseman and pinch hitter when he came to the Giants caused them to give him a start at third base. Unlike Rohlinger, Pablo hit, which gave him the starting hot corner position despite his lack of recent experience at the position. Now, Pablo hasn't caught since 2009 (3 games), and he hasn't played a lot of first base, either, since he took over at third. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JrEVefNX
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 3, 2013 12:41:57 GMT -5
Boagie -- Now we get to Brandon Belt, whom I still love btw. You're right about Brandon, he was on the team because Ross was injured. But there was alot of talk about him making the team even before Ross's injury. Then Ross gets injured and makes Bochy's decision easier. However, If he was just replacing an injured player, why does he start opening day? At the time Nate Schierholtz was a better option. Rog -- The Giants didn't consider Nate to be a better option. Nate is a guy whose outfielding is likely overrated because of the impression his wonderful right field arm makes. But it is his bat that kills him. Nate can get very hot for a little while, but the rest of the time he's not a very good hitter. We've been through how he has been given a shot on occasion when he gets hot. But each and every time, he has failed and/or gotten injured. Given a starting job when he was traded to the Phillies, Nate both struggled and became injured. Nate hit just .193 (11 for 57) for the Phillies before getting (gues what?) red hot and going 7 for his last 9 to end the season. As much as he has struggled in his two seasons, Belt's .762 career OPS is clearly ahead of Nate's .727. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JrHaGea0
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 3, 2013 12:57:20 GMT -5
Boagie -- Madison Bumgarner spent his time at every level. As did Cain. I'd say they both turned out pretty well. Rog -- Those two guys are special talents. Both pitchers were regular starters in the major leagues at age 20. I think we both agree that Crawford was rushed a bit, yet he was 24. Much of the difference, of course, is that both Mad Bum and Matt were signed out of high school, while Crawford, Buster (a regular at age 23) and Belt (22), were college players. Whether drafted out of high school or college, though, the best players tend to make the majors pretty quickly. Pablo wasn't drafted, but he became a major league starter just after his 22nd birthday. Getting back to Schierholtz, Nate made the majors at age 23, but he didn't really stick until his age 25 season. In short stretches, Nate hit over .300 in 2007 and 2008. But in the four seasons since, he received at least 200 at bats in each season and his just a little above .260. It certainly isn't a 100% correlation, but if one looks at the age at which players reached the majors and became full-time players, the ones who did it younger tend to become much better players. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JrKIetGZ
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 3, 2013 13:03:41 GMT -5
Boagie -- Pablo Sandoval was rushed up. Pablo has been good, but as we know, conditioning and patience at the plate has been an ongoing issue with Pablo. Perhaps some of that could have been fixed in AAA, perhaps not, but it couldn't have hurt. Pablo wasn't brought up because we were in a pennant race and needed help. He was brought up because our team just plain stunk and the fans needed something to cheer for. Rog -- Pablo was brought up with Rohlinger because the Giants gave up on the forgettable Jose Castilla as their third baseman, and they had two roster openings. The Giants were hoping either or both could jump from AA to the majors and show they belonged there. Pablo did so; Ryan didn't. I doubt that more time in the minors would have helped Pablo with regard to either his conditioning or plate discipline. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JrOFwgGY
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 3, 2013 13:16:25 GMT -5
Boagie -- 1 min hotdog- Brandon Belt, Hector Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval 2 min hotdog- Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain 3 min hotdog- Damon Minor, Todd Linden, Kevin Frandsen Rog -- I really like the analogy, but let's see how closely it applies. Here is the age of each player (rounded) when he was called up: 1 minute hot dog -- Belt (23), Sanchez (22), Sandoval (22) 2 minute hot dog -- Posey (23), Bumgarner (20), Cain (21) 3 minute hot dog -- Minor (27), Linden (23), Frandsen (24) Considering Minor as an outlier, there really isn't nearly as much timing difference between the three groups as the hot dog timing would imply. In fact, the 2 minutes hot dog group was actually the youngest of the three. If we make an adjustment for high school draftees vs. college draftees (and again look at Minor as an outlier), the three groups get REALLY close. My point about players who make the majors earlier is a good generalization overall. But I would say that when looked at as a whole, the true 1 minute hot dogs are better than the 2 minute hot dogs, who are in turn better than the 3 minute hot dogs. Again, these are general rules. But as generalizations, they are pretty accurate. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JrPi7PYl
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Feb 3, 2013 16:31:29 GMT -5
Rog -- I really like the analogy, but let's see how closely it applies. Here is the age of each player (rounded) when he was called up:
1 minute hot dog -- Belt (23), Sanchez (22), Sandoval (22)
2 minute hot dog -- Posey (23), Bumgarner (20), Cain (21)
3 minute hot dog -- Minor (27), Linden (23), Frandsen (24)
Considering Minor as an outlier, there really isn't nearly as much timing difference between the three groups as the hot dog timing would imply. In fact, the 2 minutes hot dog group was actually the youngest of the three.
Boagie- You think we determine whether a player is ready by their age?
This is what people talk about when they say you try to skew the numbers to prove your point. Age, we know, has nothing to do with a player being ready or not.
It's all about their progression at each level and proving they belong at a higher level.
My point of this analogy was to show how Pablo, Hector and Belt skipped some levels and got rushed up. Buster, Bumgarner and Cain had a solid amount at each level. Then included how Minor, Linden and Frandsen were likely held back a little too long eventhough having a good amount of success at Fresno.
Now, I realize the 3rd is based alot on opinion, I guess that could be a discussion. But there's no arguing that Belt, Hector and Pablo got less time in the minors than Cain, Buster and Bumgarner.
Let's focus on the 1 and 2 minute hot dogs because that's really the point here....
Lets say for a moment you're Brian Sabean, and you have these 6 examples of young prospects in your lap, 3 of them got rushed up, 3 got time at every level. When considering the results of each of the two groups, how would you likely handle the prospects in the future?
|
|
donk
New Member
Posts: 23
|
Post by donk on Feb 3, 2013 23:58:31 GMT -5
Boagie -- Now we get to Brandon Belt, whom I still love btw. You're right about Brandon, he was on the team because Ross was injured. But there was alot of talk about him making the team even before Ross's injury. Then Ross gets injured and makes Bochy's decision easier. However, If he was just replacing an injured player, why does he start opening day? At the time Nate Schierholtz was a better option. Rog -- The Giants didn't consider Nate to be a better option. Nate is a guy whose outfielding is likely overrated because of the impression his wonderful right field arm makes. But it is his bat that kills him. dk...the Phils tried him in CF and that was where he was playing when he had his splurge with the bat....I don't think his fielding was overrated in RF....he did a good job in a tough area in the phone booth...
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 4, 2013 0:08:26 GMT -5
dk...the Phils tried him in CF and that was where he was playing when he had his splurge with the bat....I don't think his fielding was overrated in RF....he did a good job in a tough area in the phone booth... Rog -- I think Nate was tremendous in pivoting off the right field line and throwing. His throwing overall was quite good. I think where his outfield play suffered a bit was in catching fly balls. I don't think he got great jumps. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#8594#ixzz2Ju6XFj6J
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 4, 2013 0:41:47 GMT -5
Rog -- I really like the analogy, but let's see how closely it applies. Here is the age of each player (rounded) when he was called up: 1 minute hot dog -- Belt (23), Sanchez (22), Sandoval (22) 2 minute hot dog -- Posey (23), Bumgarner (20), Cain (21) 3 minute hot dog -- Minor (27), Linden (23), Frandsen (24) Considering Minor as an outlier, there really isn't nearly as much timing difference between the three groups as the hot dog timing would imply. In fact, the 2 minutes hot dog group was actually the youngest of the three. Boagie- You think we determine whether a player is ready by their age? This is what people talk about when they say you try to skew the numbers to prove your point. Age, we know, has nothing to do with a player being ready or not. It's all about their progression at each level and proving they belong at a higher level. Rog -- You're right here, of course. But it was you who introduced time into the equation with your hot dog cooking analogy. Let's look volume of play instead, prior to their primary season of play in the majors. 1 minute hot dog -- Belt (595 plate appearances), Sanchez (1286 plate appearances), Sandoval (1899 plate appearances) 2 minute hot dog -- Posey (750 plate appearances), Bumgarner (355.2 IP), Cain (397.2 IP) 3 minute hot dog -- Minor (approximately 3600 plate appearances), Linden (approximately 2700 plate appearances), Frandsen (approximately 1000 plate appearances) The three minute hot dogs clearly took a lot more seasoing before they were brought up. But, again, there isn't all that much difference between the 1 minute hot dogs and the 2 minute hot dogs. But look at how well the 2 minute hot dogs did, you say. They did well when they came up, so clearly they were ready. The 1 minute dogs didn't do well, so clearly they weren't ready. Sort of begs the question, doesn't it? Belt wasn't ready, yet he had almost as much minor league experience as Buster did. Sanchez wasn't ready, but he had nearly as much minor league experience as Bumgarner. Pablo actually WAS ready, and he had more experience than Cain (who was also ready, although based on their major league career paths, not as ready as Pablo). Among all the Giants' players at present, Tim Lincecum had by far the least minor league seasoning. Yet he was about as ready as anyone. Looking at three factors, one can get a decent idea of how well a player will be. Those three factors are his age, his minor league experience, and how well he does when called up. It is tough to compare the development of high school and college players. My own shorthand would be that two college or minor league short seasons equal one full minor league season. Obviously, injuries impact development time, as well. Maybe if we take the equivalent number of minor league seasons and add it to the player's age at reaching in becoming primarily a major leaguer, we have a decent way to compare how quickly players developed. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2Ju756hKF
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 4, 2013 0:55:03 GMT -5
Every one of the six players defined here as 1 minute and 2 minute hot dogs moved up through the Giants' system in a skipping manner. To me, skipping means playing all or part of a season two levels higher than the playing level of the previous season.
A high school player who doesn't skip would play a season each in Rookie Ball, Short Season Ball, Low A, High A, AA and AAA. That would put him in the majors in his seventh season.
Perhaps not coincidentally, most players can be fully protected for precisely six seasons if all three seasons prior to requiring options are used, along with all three option seasons.
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 4, 2013 1:00:01 GMT -5
Boagie -- But there's no arguing that Belt, Hector and Pablo got less time in the minors than Cain, Buster and Bumgarner. Rog -- Sorry, Boagie, but there is. Belt and Buster had similar time and had the least. The other four went Hector, Mad Bum, Cain and Pablo. They all had considerably more minor league time than either Belt or Buster. Of course, they weren't college players, either. Of all the players you mentioned, Pablo had the most minor league development. Yet because of weight and plate patience issues, you consider him to be a 1 minute hot dog. In reality, with the possible exception of Mad Bum, he had the quickest success in the majors. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JuIix3nD
|
|
|
Post by sharksrog on Feb 4, 2013 1:13:08 GMT -5
Boagie -- Lets say for a moment you're Brian Sabean, and you have these 6 examples of young prospects in your lap, 3 of them got rushed up, 3 got time at every level. When considering the results of each of the two groups, how would you likely handle the prospects in the future? Rog -- All six players were "rushed" compared to the traditional development path (one level per year). I would handle prospects according to my analysis of their best development path, which is something that could change over time. I would err on the side of caution, but the realities of that can be shaped in part based on team need. I would attempt to bring players up late enough that they don't achieve arbitration status until after playing in parts of four seasons, nor free agent status before playing in seven. A perfect example of this timing are Mad Bum, Sandoval and Sanchez, who each will play in a decent portion of four seasons before arbitartion eligibility and seven seasons before free agency. Buster Posey entered the majors with seven seasons before free agency, but only three seasons before arb eligibility. That means he has four arbitration years instead of the traditional three. Same with Belt, except that had Brandon not been sent back down in his rookie season, he would have only three seasons before arbitration and six seasons before free agency. The Giants got essentially three seasons and a month out of Cain before arb eligibility, and six seasons plus a month before free agency. The decisions can be tough. As an example, had the Giants waited another month or so on Posey and Tim Lincecum, each player would have had another year to wait for arb eligibility. On the other hand, the Giants extended the free agency eligibility of each player a year by not opening the season with them. There are a lot of factors involved, Boagie. But one thing that does ring true as a general rule is that players who make the majors at a younger age tend to be better players than those who reach when they are older. Same thing with hard throwing pitchers compared to soft tossers, and ground ball pitchers compared to fly ball pitchers. Same with hitters who have more patience and plate judgment compared to those who don't. No rule -- or scouting technique -- is foolproof. But there are rules that can be helpful in player evalution, some of which have been discussed here. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1439&page=1#ixzz2JuK1R4Ac
|
|