Post by sharksrog on Jan 9, 2013 19:05:20 GMT -5
Bleacher Reports posted an article on the chances of 50 present major leaguers making the Hall. Most players had small percentages, but Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Albert Pujols were given a 100% chance, and Miguel Cabrera was at 90%.
The next highest I remember were Justin Verlander at 50% and Felix Hernandez at 40%. Robinson Cano and Roy Halladay were at 30%.
The Giants' four candidates who have been discussed here previously are all relatively young, so their chances aren't yet rated as being very high. Too much time for things to go wrong.
Perhaps the most surprising to me was Matt Cain at 15%. Matt would be helped by present-day voters appropriately valuing things like ERA and WHIP more and won-loss record less. His first three full seasons darned near KILLED his won-loss record -- even though he pitched well.
Buster Posey is also listed at 15%. As the article said, he has played at a Hall of Fame level thus far, but he also has played the equivalent of only two full years. It seems likely that the more Posey plays catcher over his career, the better his chances (assuming he stays healthy).
The better Brandon Belt performs, the less the chance that Posey will become the first baseman anytime soon, but with his strong arm and experience at shortstop, Buster could also play third base or perhaps even the keystone.
For now, Buster wants to play catcher -- and that is where the Giants want him, for obvious reasons.
Tim Lincecum was given a 7% shot at the Hall. As the article mentioned, a year ago that percentage would have been much higher -- likely in the 30% range I would expect.
The point here though is that one horrible season doesn't remove his shot at the Hall; it merely reduces it significantly.
Tim is on a program designed by trainer Dave Graeschner designed to strengthen his shoulder and put on about five pounds of muscle. Tim is said by Graeschner to be "pretty excited" about the program.
According to Graeschner, the object of the conditioning isn't to put mph on Tim's declining fastball, but rather to prepare him to continue the rigors of pitching 200+ innings a season and hopefully adding innings in the month of October.
Finally, Pablo Sandoval's chances are rated at just 1%. Pablo has played at a Hall of Fame level thus far, at least at the plate. But he has been injury-prone, and his fluctuating weight -- high even at its best -- has caused concerns about his durability.
The good news is that Pablo is out of hamate bones to break, having broken one of them in each of the past two seasons. The hamate bones were removed during his two surgeries.
Pablo's power was temporarily reduced after each surgery, although he recovered enough to hit a record-tying three home runs in a single World Series game.
I placed the over/under on Giants present team Hall of Famers at 1.5, or at least 1.0. The figures issued by Bleacher Report indicate the over/under should be more like 0.5, or 1.0 at best.
But should each of the four players remain healthy and continue to play at the pace they have set thus far, the odds for each of the four will improve as their resume widens.
I was most happy to see Cain's odds being rated as high as they are. He truly has pitched at a Hall of Fame level, but two things are working against him.
First, his won-loss record -- through no fault of his own -- just reached .500 this past season.
Second, while he has pitched with steady excellence, he has yet to have that "knock your socks off" season.
Matt just turned 28 the last week of the season though, so if he stays healthy and gets some run support, he could indeed have a shot.
Although Buster's chances are rated the same as Matt's, one would have to think Buster has the best shot. Injuries could be a bugaboo, or he could be a short-time wonder. But he certainly has played the part thus far, and his MVP this past season clearly puts him on the Hall's radar.
As Don has correctly pointed out, there is no point in annointing these guys before their time. Even Miguel Cabrera is given "only" a 90% chance at this time.
But all four Giants have performed at or near a Hall of Fame level thus far in their careers. They need to stay healthy and productive, and not suffer too badly in their decline phase.
In the cases of Lincecum, particularly Sandoval and perhaps even Posey, there are durability issues. Certainly Lincecum's chances plummeted this past season.
It will be fun to see how things look for each of the four a year from now -- and to see if Brandon Belt has managed to get on the radar as the tiniest of beeps.
The next highest I remember were Justin Verlander at 50% and Felix Hernandez at 40%. Robinson Cano and Roy Halladay were at 30%.
The Giants' four candidates who have been discussed here previously are all relatively young, so their chances aren't yet rated as being very high. Too much time for things to go wrong.
Perhaps the most surprising to me was Matt Cain at 15%. Matt would be helped by present-day voters appropriately valuing things like ERA and WHIP more and won-loss record less. His first three full seasons darned near KILLED his won-loss record -- even though he pitched well.
Buster Posey is also listed at 15%. As the article said, he has played at a Hall of Fame level thus far, but he also has played the equivalent of only two full years. It seems likely that the more Posey plays catcher over his career, the better his chances (assuming he stays healthy).
The better Brandon Belt performs, the less the chance that Posey will become the first baseman anytime soon, but with his strong arm and experience at shortstop, Buster could also play third base or perhaps even the keystone.
For now, Buster wants to play catcher -- and that is where the Giants want him, for obvious reasons.
Tim Lincecum was given a 7% shot at the Hall. As the article mentioned, a year ago that percentage would have been much higher -- likely in the 30% range I would expect.
The point here though is that one horrible season doesn't remove his shot at the Hall; it merely reduces it significantly.
Tim is on a program designed by trainer Dave Graeschner designed to strengthen his shoulder and put on about five pounds of muscle. Tim is said by Graeschner to be "pretty excited" about the program.
According to Graeschner, the object of the conditioning isn't to put mph on Tim's declining fastball, but rather to prepare him to continue the rigors of pitching 200+ innings a season and hopefully adding innings in the month of October.
Finally, Pablo Sandoval's chances are rated at just 1%. Pablo has played at a Hall of Fame level thus far, at least at the plate. But he has been injury-prone, and his fluctuating weight -- high even at its best -- has caused concerns about his durability.
The good news is that Pablo is out of hamate bones to break, having broken one of them in each of the past two seasons. The hamate bones were removed during his two surgeries.
Pablo's power was temporarily reduced after each surgery, although he recovered enough to hit a record-tying three home runs in a single World Series game.
I placed the over/under on Giants present team Hall of Famers at 1.5, or at least 1.0. The figures issued by Bleacher Report indicate the over/under should be more like 0.5, or 1.0 at best.
But should each of the four players remain healthy and continue to play at the pace they have set thus far, the odds for each of the four will improve as their resume widens.
I was most happy to see Cain's odds being rated as high as they are. He truly has pitched at a Hall of Fame level, but two things are working against him.
First, his won-loss record -- through no fault of his own -- just reached .500 this past season.
Second, while he has pitched with steady excellence, he has yet to have that "knock your socks off" season.
Matt just turned 28 the last week of the season though, so if he stays healthy and gets some run support, he could indeed have a shot.
Although Buster's chances are rated the same as Matt's, one would have to think Buster has the best shot. Injuries could be a bugaboo, or he could be a short-time wonder. But he certainly has played the part thus far, and his MVP this past season clearly puts him on the Hall's radar.
As Don has correctly pointed out, there is no point in annointing these guys before their time. Even Miguel Cabrera is given "only" a 90% chance at this time.
But all four Giants have performed at or near a Hall of Fame level thus far in their careers. They need to stay healthy and productive, and not suffer too badly in their decline phase.
In the cases of Lincecum, particularly Sandoval and perhaps even Posey, there are durability issues. Certainly Lincecum's chances plummeted this past season.
It will be fun to see how things look for each of the four a year from now -- and to see if Brandon Belt has managed to get on the radar as the tiniest of beeps.
