|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 23, 2023 9:44:35 GMT -5
It is my opinion that this team needs to get back to 5 regular starters and it needs to do so now!
Webb, DesClafani, Wood, Beck & Winn or Manaea is a much better option, and will have less toil on the pen, than what we are currently doing with Bullpen games.
Beck, IMHO, has EARNED a start or two.
So has Manaea.
Wood is not the guy he was in 2021 so until Cobb returns, we are shorthanded.
Of course, with that said, I realize Kapler won't do as I suggest... and the fact that he's obsessed with BP games and all the other modern day nonsense, makes me despise him even more.
I realize the trade deadline is still a long ways off... August 1st, if I have that correctly.
But our pitching situation must be addressed... and picking up (can anyone say "Churn,"?) a 27 year old outfielder isn't really helping.
We just had a great 10 game run, and even better month and 1/2 of baseball.
I'd hate to see all that the team has accomplished be flushed down the toilet by injuries and poor leadership (Kapler and FZ)
No need to rush into anything, but our pitching situation MUST be changed and changed soon; as I said above.
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 24, 2023 9:32:18 GMT -5
Starting pitching is going to be a hot commodity so it’s not going to come cheaply. I’m thinking Bart and Luciano will be trade chips. They are losing patience with those two but I think both need more time.
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jun 24, 2023 11:01:46 GMT -5
I think many teams will want Luciano, but I believe the Giants consider him untouchable.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 24, 2023 11:05:28 GMT -5
I agree, boagie, moving Luciano, THE prized chip in the system, would be a massively, MASSIVELY STUPID idea!
I am more inclined to think that they'll package Bart and possibly Villar.
Why? In the right park, on the right team, Villar has 25-30 HR potential, and Bart, 18-22.
IF I'm a rebuilding team, I'd want both of them.
Power is hard to come by, and you could also add versatility to that because Villar plays not only 3B, but is better than average at 1B and is okay at 2B
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jun 24, 2023 12:56:10 GMT -5
Villar could probably hit that many homeruns at Oracle if he played enough, but he's just not a starting player, and I don't think any GM around baseball thinks he's a starting player either. A few years ago he may have been somewhat valuable on an NL team as a bat off the bench, but since the adoption of the DH he really doesn't have a sustainable role anymore.
While I'd love to dump our expendable players on another team and get a frontline starter in return, I just don't see that as a realistic possibility.
Bart does have some value, but it would take more than a package of him and Villar to get a substantial return.
This is why I don't think a significant deal is going to be made. All the GMs will either want one of our top prospects, or 3-4 decent prospects. Both of which FZ will have a hard time letting go of.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 24, 2023 14:49:54 GMT -5
Guess I'm going to disagree, boagie. WE have soured on Villar, but there is not disputing 2 MVPs at 2 different levels.
With the Cubs, I see him hitting close to 30 HRs
Bart was a 1st round pick and teams LOVE to take chances on first round picks.
Like I said, IF I'm the GM of a building team, and I have a 30ish pitcher who's half way decent, packaging those 2 plus another, lesser player, I contend, would be enough...
Marcus Stroman would be a great example of a guy I'd pursue.
From the Cubs perspective, they have no one under the age of 35 catching.
Villar would be a great piece for 1B who could also play other places.
Add a piece to the package and I think it's do able.
Bottom line; fans so often think more highly of a player than they deserved.
But in this case, IMHO, we are down grading the value of Villar and Bart, when the reality is, they just haven't performed...YET.
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jun 25, 2023 3:31:24 GMT -5
The Cubs have 3 catchers, 2 of which are younger than 35. Yan Gomes is 35, he is not getting displaced by Bart, neither is Tucker Barnhart who's much better defensively. If the Cubs wanted Bart it would only be as a minor league project player. That is not going to make Stroman pack his bags. Sorry, Boly..It’s just not.
You think Villar could hit 30 in Chicago, and maybe he could with around 500 at bats. But at what cost? Not many teams want a .200 average in the lineup every day, especially at first base. And in the Cubs case, Trey Mancini is a much better option.
I really don't see any teams talking to us about Villar or Bart when we're looking for a frontline starter. They might be in a package with someone else, but they aren't going to be the meat of any significant deal.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 25, 2023 9:56:27 GMT -5
The Cubs have 3 catchers, 2 of which are younger than 35. Yan Gomes is 35, he is not getting displaced by Bart, neither is Tucker Barnhart who's much better defensively. If the Cubs wanted Bart it would only be as a minor league project player. That is not going to make Stroman pack his bags. Sorry, Boly..It’s just not. You think Villar could hit 30 in Chicago, and maybe he could with around 500 at bats. But at what cost? Not many teams want a .200 average in the lineup every day, especially at first base. And in the Cubs case, Trey Mancini is a much better option. I really don't see any teams talking to us about Villar or Bart when we're looking for a frontline starter. They might be in a package with someone else, but they aren't going to be the meat of any significant deal.
Please note what I said: Marcus Stroman would be a great example of a guy I'd pursue.
I was only using Stroman, and the Cubs, as an example.
Though I don't see Villar as a high average guy, I don't think .250 is out of the question. And as we see year in and year out, teams are more than willing to put up with a low average for a high HR guy.
2 examples: JD Martinez. Long past his prime, but still a power guy in spite of his .254 average.
Christian Walker would be another. Career .250 hitter but with big power.
So I really don't see a lower average driving teams away.
As I said, I was ONLY using the Cubs as an example.
Please note the other thing I said about a Bart-Villar package: "Add a piece to the package and I think it's do able."
I do not believe that, short of selling off our entire farm, we will be able to get a #1 starter.
But we could land a guy who is a 2 or a 3...
And again I turn to the Cubs; Drew Smyly as an example. Another guy (rental?) who would be on my radar.
But truth be known, I am not sure I really want to move Villar. IMHO, he has more long term upside than Flores, and is a better defender at 3B or 2B... not to mention that he's younger.
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jun 25, 2023 12:23:59 GMT -5
My apologies, Boly. I thought you were suggesting Stroman as the target. For Drew Smyly you might have a decent chance. It really depends how many other teams will be looking for starting pitching and how bad they want them.
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 25, 2023 13:08:49 GMT -5
The kind of pitcher they would get would be a Smyly or a Giolito (impending free agent). I’m not sure I would do that.
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 25, 2023 13:10:17 GMT -5
My apologies, Boly. I thought you were suggesting Stroman as the target. For Drew Smyly you might have a decent chance. It really depends how many other teams will be looking for starting pitching and how bad they want them. Most playoff contenders are looking for starting pitching, including the Dodgers. The price is going to be high. |
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 25, 2023 15:57:46 GMT -5
No question, it is going to be high.
But, as I keep saying, Bart and Villar +...? might be more than other teams are willing to part with.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 25, 2023 15:58:21 GMT -5
My apologies, Boly. I thought you were suggesting Stroman as the target. For Drew Smyly you might have a decent chance. It really depends how many other teams will be looking for starting pitching and how bad they want them.
Whether we agree or disagree, I have great respect for your opinions |
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 25, 2023 16:35:51 GMT -5
Cobb and Stripling should be back soon. That should lessen the urgency to make a deal but to be honest, they would be acquiring depth pieces and most of those available are not better than the guys they currently have.
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 25, 2023 16:36:13 GMT -5
Boly: Webb, DesClafani, Wood, Beck & Winn or Manaea is a much better option, and will have less toil on the pen, than what we are currently doing with Bullpen games.
Manaea seems to like the bulk role.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 25, 2023 21:29:31 GMT -5
I just want them to stop with the stupid bullpen games. Run. The starters out there and let them start!
But I guess that's too complicated for our "modern day" manager
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jun 25, 2023 22:15:44 GMT -5
Reed- Cobb and Stripling should be back soon. That should lessen the urgency to make a deal but to be honest, they would be acquiring depth pieces and most of those available are not better than the guys they currently have.
Boagie- That's what I'm afraid of, Reed. I don't think we have what it takes to get through a post season series with what we currently have even when everyone is 100% healthy.
Webb is really the only one that I fully trust in a series like that.
I'd be okay with Cobb because I think when he's on, he can get through any lineup in baseball.
Desclafani at his best would still worry me against a good lineup.
Wood in a small sample seems to be somewhat of a big game pitcher, but his stamina is always in question.
I like both Winn and Beck, but Kapler is missing the opportunity to transition one or both of these guys into starters to see what we have. Bochy would have already made this transition.
So what we have is a whole lot of question marks nearing the trade deadline. Do we need more starters? Yes. Do we have them? We don't know. All we know is we have a handful of long relievers who don't really know their role from day to day. If it remains this way, and we narrowly miss the playoffs or get knocked out in the first round then Kapler needs to wear it.
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 26, 2023 8:47:53 GMT -5
I get what you are saying. This is a team that is playing over their heads in June but looks like a one and done team even if they make the playoffs. My action plan would be like yours, to transition Winn and Beck to start and not rush to make any trade for another mediocre pitcher.
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jun 26, 2023 9:15:49 GMT -5
So if we here on the board can see the obvious track we need to take in solidifying our starting rotation, why doesn't Kapler or FZ see that?
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 26, 2023 9:44:28 GMT -5
I am thinking that they feel the latest win streak is sustainable but the number of come from behind wins they’ve had is nearly as rare as a 107 win season. Also, the teams they beat up like the Dodgers are a shell of what they were. The upcoming east coast road swing should give us a better idea of where they stand.
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 26, 2023 10:03:14 GMT -5
So if we here on the board can see the obvious track we need to take in solidifying our starting rotation, why doesn't Kapler or FZ see that? Kapler is currently successful using his sabermetrics and FZ is having a good run with his churn and I think they are arrogant enough to feel that its is their way or the highway. Looking up and down the 26 man roster are a lot of guys who are injury prone so I feel like they're a better than average team but cannot go deep into the playoffs. They have potential solid pieces and it would be foolish to do a Kris Bryant type trade if they can improve in house. |
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 26, 2023 10:40:13 GMT -5
Reed- Cobb and Stripling should be back soon. That should lessen the urgency to make a deal but to be honest, they would be acquiring depth pieces and most of those available are not better than the guys they currently have. Boagie- That's what I'm afraid of, Reed. I don't think we have what it takes to get through a post season series with what we currently have even when everyone is 100% healthy. Webb is really the only one that I fully trust in a series like that. I'd be okay with Cobb because I think when he's on, he can get through any lineup in baseball. Desclafani at his best would still worry me against a good lineup. Wood in a small sample seems to be somewhat of a big game pitcher, but his stamina is always in question. I like both Winn and Beck, but Kapler is missing the opportunity to transition one or both of these guys into starters to see what we have. Bochy would have already made this transition. So what we have is a whole lot of question marks nearing the trade deadline. Do we need more starters? Yes. Do we have them? We don't know. All we know is we have a handful of long relievers who don't really know their role from day to day. If it remains this way, and we narrowly miss the playoffs or get knocked out in the first round then Kapler needs to wear it.
I, too, ONLY trust Webb... but to be honest, THAT trust wanes because of his penchant this year for giving up the long ball.
As to Cobb, I REALLY worry if he is recovered enough from that oblique problem to be as effective as he was early in the year.
To me, those kinds of injuries take the off season to really heal.
Stripling has a decent track record...but this year? What in the world was/is wrong with him?
Or has he had this back issue all along and we just didn't know?
DesClafani, at best is a #3 guy...I WILL GO TO MY GRAVE contending THAT toe incident REALLY caused more issues than he, or the team, let on.
Again, I reference what I referenced at the time: Dizzy Dean. The big toe MATTERS!
Yesterday he APPEARED to finally have figured out his delivery slot again, and IF that's so...for a number 3... he's decent.
Wood, IMHO, is close to being done.
Yes, he has a great, big game pitcher history... but last year and now this year, between injuries and just plain crappy locations... he's not been very good.
And I'm with you: Bochy WOULD have given Beck and Winn a shot at starting.
Then again, Bochy would NOT have done all of these bullpen games.
Kapler views himself, IMHO, as the PROTOTYPICAL MODERN DAY ENLIGHTENED big league manager.
If it's new, he's in. And THAT makes him a liability, IMHO.
If we end up missing out on the playoffs BECAUSE our bullpen is cooked by August, I'd show him the door because he CLEARLY has no clue how to run a pitching staff.
And finally. Do we have the starting staff needed? Or, as you suggested, do we simply not know?
I would argue both.
1-Wood, IMHO, shouldn't be counted on for much
2-We need to find what Beck and Winn can do.
3-Manaea is not the guy we need.
4-We NEED to get a vet, like a Drew Smyly, who can bring calm to the staff.
5-Stripling is iffy, at best, due to his back, as, I believe, is Cobb with that oblique.
But here is the problem as I see it: Kapler is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to do as I suggest; let the starters start.
He's unlikely to even GIVE Beck or Winn shot at starting.
Again, if I'm the GM, at the end of this season, Kapler is sent packing.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 26, 2023 10:42:23 GMT -5
So if we here on the board can see the obvious track we need to take in solidifying our starting rotation, why doesn't Kapler or FZ see that? Kapler is currently successful using his sabermetrics and FZ is having a good run with his churn and I think they are arrogant enough to feel that its is their way or the highway. Looking up and down the 26 man roster are a lot of guys who are injury prone so I feel like they're a better than average team but cannot go deep into the playoffs. They have potential solid pieces and it would be foolish to do a Kris Bryant type trade if they can improve in house.
Especially Kapler!
Going deep into the play offs isn't likely with so many kids playing.
And that's okay with me for this year.
I simply grow more and more fond of Sabol and Bailey and Matos with the passing of each day.
Schmidt? Talk about an enigma...
And the fact that he is NOT playing... makes me wonder if he's about to get a trip back to SAC to GET more at bats than he's getting. |
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 26, 2023 10:43:31 GMT -5
So if we here on the board can see the obvious track we need to take in solidifying our starting rotation, why doesn't Kapler or FZ see that?
Yes... I believe it is. |
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 26, 2023 10:47:17 GMT -5
I am thinking that they feel the latest win streak is sustainable but the number of come from behind wins they’ve had is nearly as rare as a 107 win season. Also, the teams they beat up like the Dodgers are a shell of what they were. The upcoming east coast road swing should give us a better idea of where they stand.
1-Never, ever underestimate the importance of chemistry. And this team has that in spades!
Come from behind wins become contagious... and chemistry makes up for a LOT of a lack of comparable talent.
2-When our lineup is healthy, we can put a darned powerful team on the field.
And even without Zaz, Sabol can fill in quite nicely.
Lacks experience, yes, but he can hit!
3-Will we go deep into the playoffs?
Likely not.
BUT... the kids... finally the kids, are getting a shot to rejuvenate this team for the future |
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 26, 2023 15:10:03 GMT -5
One thing that seems really important to the management is the appearance of being cutting edge, outside the box thinkers. I’ve mentioned before that the use of stats does not make Kapler better than anyone else but helps to give him a level playing field and hide his deficiencies. In other words, I feel that the use of sabermetrics turns him from a poor manager into an average one. It seems that FZ is learning to trust the farm system but I feel that making a trade would be futile unless they had an offer that they could not turn down. I think they are getting a little impatient with Luciano and Bart but they have to hold on and not make a Mike Leake type trade. The two things that they have not figured out are the injuries and load management and I think they need Luciano and Bart because of that.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 26, 2023 17:19:22 GMT -5
That's a really good analysis of Kapler, Reed. And one I hadn't thought of; The appearance of being cutting edge, outside the box thinkers BECAUSE they use sabermetrics.
And I agree; using SM makes them appear smarter than they are... especially Kaptain Ego
|
|
|
|
Post by reedonly on Jun 26, 2023 17:40:39 GMT -5
It’s kind of like the difference between old rich people and new rich people. New rich like the bling and like to buy stuff to show off their wealth. Old rich not so much. Kapler is big on appearance with virtue signaling and lifestyle blogs and it’s important to him to look smart. If he was a designer of submarines, he'd probably make a big show of it but I woudn't ride it.
I gripe about him all the time but I’m afraid he’s done enough to keep his job for the time being. That being said, if most of the decisions were derived from their computers, most anyone else would have gotten the same results if they followed what the computer told them to do.
|
|
|
|
Post by Islandboagie on Jun 27, 2023 12:28:51 GMT -5
Reed- It’s kind of like the difference between old rich people and new rich people. New rich like the bling and like to buy stuff to show off their wealth. Old rich not so much. Kapler is big on appearance with virtue signaling and lifestyle blogs and it’s important to him to look smart. If he was a designer of submarines, he'd probably make a big show of it but I woudn't ride it.
Boagie- Brilliant analysis and analogy. I would have never made the correlation between Kapler and the CEO of OceanGate, but they are basically one in the same. They both focus so hard on trying to appear smart, that they would risk everything doing something stupid, rather than admitting that maybe they aren't the smartest in the room.
|
|
|
|
Post by klaiggeb on Jun 27, 2023 12:36:38 GMT -5
I think both of you nailed it! And honestly I wouldn't have thought of making the correlation either, but it was well done! And certainly explains our leader.
|
|
