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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 5, 2021 13:02:09 GMT -5
Hjelle might make for a decent 5th starter. Beede has had his troubles and health issues but I still haven't given up on him maybe being a late bloomer. Long has a nice curveball, I think he could be a factor as well. I wouldn't mind testing these guys out in spot starts, but I'd be more comfortable with that if we had a solid #1-4, but we don't.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 5, 2021 14:38:56 GMT -5
Totally agree, boagie.
A spot here or there is just fine, but not much more than that.
Tyler Beede has such great stuff, if you could just get this command issues under control. Not to mention his health issues recently
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 5, 2021 16:50:23 GMT -5
Ok, Matt, which teams have a better 1 through 4 than the Giants, and why are those rotations better? I'm not saying there aren't any out there, but if one looks closely and objectively, I think he finds they are few and relatively far between.
As much as we like Webb, he could actually be a slight weakness in his slot because until this past season he had almost no success. Even in seven seasons in the minors, his ERA was a good but not exceptional 3.37. Seven seasons in the minors is a lot too. One positive was that his ERA trended downward as he rose in the minors.
But Logan should be fine, and I've already demonstrated that DeSclafani appears to be a bona fide #2, Webb a #3 and the exciting Cobb at least a #4. I believe when you analyze, you'll find that few teams are as solid 1 through 4. Go ahead and do your own analysis. It might be instructional.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 5, 2021 17:18:39 GMT -5
I think it is highly unlikely the Giants will go with a four-man rotation and a spot starter. Most starting pitchers average close to 4 1/2 days rest, which means they're pitching in a rather pure five-man rotation.
When a team goes with a four-man rotation and a spot fifth starter, the four guys would average over 35 starts. Last season no starter made over 33 starts. When a team uses five starters, three starters would make 32 starts and two would make 33. Last season there were seven starts who made 33 starts, and 14 made 32. Spot starts tend to happen when teams wind up playing a double header because of bad weather. Otherwise, teams pretty much go with five starters.
Only 41 starters made even as many as 30 starts. Throw in injuries, and do we begin to see why Mr. Zaidi said he was looking for starters who could make 162 total starts. Let's be honest; Mr. Zaidi is simply several steps ahead of us.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 5, 2021 18:38:25 GMT -5
Totally agree, boagie. A spot here or there is just fine, but not much more than that. Tyler Beede has such great stuff, if you could just get this command issues under control. Not to mention his health issues recently I am not a big fan of Beede. World of talent but woefully inconsistent. If the Bannister, Bailey, etc cannot fix him, its time for him to move on. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 6, 2021 7:45:33 GMT -5
While we're busy putting down the Giants' top four starters, are we ignoring the Dodgers' top four? Trevor Bauer is likely done playing for the Dodgers, and Clayton Kershaw is injured and unsigned. That leaves them with a top four of Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin and May.
No arguing with Buehler. As much as we like Webb, Buehler gets the edge there. Same with Urias over DeSclafani. Gonsolin and May might be better than Wood and Cobb too, but the Giants' pair is more proven.
All in all, I'd give the nod to the Dodgers, and if Gonsolin and May stay healthy and prove themselves over a full season, they might be easily better. But it looks a lot closer to me than a year ago when the Dodgers entered the season with Kershaw, Bauer, Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin, May and Price.
But, yes, not surprisingly, the Dodgers' rotation appears to be better than the Giants' (especially if we go five deep). But how many others? Going by Fan Graphs WAR, the Giants' top four stood at 12 WAR last season. That's far from horrible. That's an average of three WAR per starter, and last season there were only 42 starters with three or more WAR. The Giants' top four starters this season were EACH in the top 50 starters in WAR last season.
It wouldn't be a complete stretch to say that all four Giants starters were #2's or better last season. Given that there are 150 regular starters in the majors at a given time, having four starters in the top third isn't simply having one ace and three "guys."
We can all agree the Giants have virtually no #5 starter right now, but how does one argue that the top four includes three guys who are "just guys."? I don't believe there was a single team last season that had four starters among the top 50 in WAR. If there were any at all, the number was easily countable by "Three Fingers" Brown.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 6, 2021 7:46:53 GMT -5
On, wait. There WAS one team last season with four of the top 50 starters in WAR. That team was called the Giants.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 6, 2021 10:32:36 GMT -5
Caution on Rodon: he was one of the ones complaining about spider-tack crackdown and had a sore arm in second half of 2021. Also is a Scott Boras client. The sore arm was probably the reason why he was not tendered a QO. This guy seems like more trouble than he's worth.
I've read that among the remaining FAs, Rodon has the highest upside but has been an injury risk all of his career. To be honest, if Zaidi and Harris have not signed someone by now, it must mean that there is a good reason why they didn't. In the case of Rodon, he has three obvious things working against him.
I was pushing for them to sign Chris Taylor and at 4y//$60mm seemed reasonable and he would fit into the scheme but I think they didn't like his strikeout rate and they did not want to give up the international signing bonus money. Also, signing Taylor would resulted in one less pick for the Giants and one more pick for the Dodgers. At his age, I think he only has two more productive years so four years seems a bit much. They don't want to fall into the Mark Portugal trap by signing a player who did well against you. |
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 6, 2021 17:34:33 GMT -5
Goof analysis of Rodon and Taylor, Reeder, although I'm still intrigued by Rodon. I'm guessing he'll miss part of next season, and even if he begins the season, he seems a large health risk. But if he can somehow stay healthy, he might be the most valuable pitcher of ALL the free agents over the remainder of his career. Carlos is only 28, although he turns 29 on Friday. Even though he pitched only 133 innings last season, he was valued at $39 million.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 7, 2021 11:21:41 GMT -5
Boly: Look at the Dodger Rotation by the end of the season.
Scherzer, Buehler, Urias.
I think this part of their team is going to be a weakness going forward. Scherzer is gone, Buehler and Urias may have some lingering fatigue from pitching so many extended seasons. May is coming back from injury and they should have developed Gonsolin. Remember, they were going with the opener a lot last season after Kershw went down. If they re-sign Kershw, they should expect him to miss a good portion of the season.
One of the reasons why there aren't many dynasties anymore is that the playoffs are a lot longer than they were in the past. That was one reason why the Warriors did not get more championships and why the Dodgers did not repeat in 2021. Also, that was probably the main problem with the Giants in 2011, 2013, and 2015.
The Dodgers will be good but let's not print up their NL West Champion shirts just yet.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 7, 2021 12:16:26 GMT -5
The Warriors probably should have won five championships in a row. Twice they lost in close seventh games. The first time came when Draymond Green got suspended with the Warriors leading 3-1, and somehow their momentum simply stopped. The second time came when they lost BOTH Kevin Duran and Klay Thompson -- one probably a top-10 all-time player and the other "merely" a future Hall of Famer -- to injury.
Good point about the length of seasons plus the playoffs. In baseball, the six-month season gets extended to seven months by the playoffs. In football, four months become five. In basketball and hockey, it's even tougher, as their six-month seasons stretch out to close to eight months for the two championship finalists.
I believe the present Warriors may have found a cure though. When Thompson and James Wiseman come back, they'll be 13 deep, and the two rookies who make up #14 and #15 could be contributors by the end of the season if they can simply find their way into an already-crowded and growing rotation.
Let's envision the Giants getting as good as the Warriors. With Farhan, it could happen. (Farhan didn't turn into Farmhand when I earlier wrote "Farhan" without thinking of the consequences.)
As Reeder points out, the Dodgers face some challenges themselves, although their pattern the past decade or so has been to spend their way out of problems. Both the Giants and Dodgers are poised to make a big move or two should they decide to go that way.
The Padres have work to do, but it wouldn't be surprising to see them become baseball's most improved team this season after being its most disappointing squad last year.
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Post by reedonly on Dec 7, 2021 16:26:16 GMT -5
The players who have been to the playoffs so many times such as Kershw, Curry, Thompson and so forth probably had about the equivalent of an extra year's wear and tear. I think the playoff workload affected our pitchers, especially Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and the core four relievers. I don't see the Giants dominating over the league as the Warriors did because the mlb luxury tax acts as a harder salary cap than the NBA cap and the Giants don't have the equivalent of Curry on their roster. In fact, I'm not sure a player like that exists in today's game. We're talking about a star with magnitude of a Mays, Mantle, or Aaron.
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Post by sharksrog on Dec 7, 2021 17:44:35 GMT -5
I like the breadth of your posts, Reeder. You seem to have a nice base of knowledge.
Regarding Giants relievers, I would go so far as to say they had five at their core: Wilson, Romo, Casilla, Affeldt and Lopez. The first two were homegrown, and the final trio were picked up as free agents or by trade. Very good point about the added wear and tear.
I see Steph as the #2 all-time point guard behind Magic Johnson, and if Steph plays long enough, perhaps he can surpass even Magic. I see both Mike Trout and Kershaw as that type of player -- especially Mike. How far Clayton moves up the ranks will depend on how healthy he is when he comes back, how long he can pitch at a high level, and how much he can improve his disappointing postseason legacy. Clayton already has a better regular season career than Sandy Koufax.
Trout will likely wind up as a top 10 all-time player. He's off to one of the greatest 11-year starts of any player ever.
Fernando Tatis, Jr. is off to an incredible start -- if he can just stay healthy. Know who the greatest home run hitter per 162 games is? It isn't Hank Aaron, although Hank's 37 per 162 is great. It isn't even Barry Bonds, although Barry's 41 per 162 is even greater. It isn't even Babe Ruth, whose 46 per 162 almost unbelievable. It's Tatis, Jr., whose 48 homers per 162 games is basically three homers every 10 games.
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. started his major league career a little slowly (comparatively), but last season he led the AL in homers with 48, in total bases with 363, in OBO at .401, SLG at .601, OPS at 1.002, runs with 123, and in OPS+ with 169 (69% better than average). Tatis and Guerrero are each only 22.
Trout and Kershaw are already all-timers. Clayton has easily the best ERA of any starting pitcher who didn't pitch in the dead ball era, and Trout's 9.6 WAR per 162 looks pretty good compared even to Willie Mays' 8.4. Tatis isn't too bad either at 8.1 WAR per 162.
Trout is probably the greatest outfielder since Mays, and one could make an argument that Kershaw has been the most effective regular season starting pitcher of the live ball era.
I remember back close to 15 years ago your Reed namesake, Allen, said there were no superstars in baseball. I don't remember if that was before or after Kershaw hit the majors, but it was almost certainly prior to Trout. Sometimes superstars are just around the corner. Or maybe even playing, but not completely developed to their full potential yet.
It's now appearing that Marco Luciano isn't going to rise to quite that level, but he could become the best homegrown Giant since at least Buster amd possibly become the #1 SF Giants shortstop, third baseman or right fielder. And I think Luis Matos could become the San Francisco Giants' #2 all-time center fielder. Joey Bart could become their #2 all-time catcher.
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Post by reedonly on Mar 21, 2022 10:37:46 GMT -5
I still think Farnham might attempt a hybrid starter rotation with one opener out of five starts. This depends on health and opponent. Either that or the I-80 shuttle to Sacramento. They haven’t talked about it but I keep hearing that they want eight starters. Now its time for the annual Farhan dumpster dive. Cueto, Rosenthal, and similar quality pitchers are still out there and could be had for low prices. We noted Farhan stocking up on extra arms a couple of weeks ago and he probably should sock away some more. This is also Tyler Beede's last chance, option-wise. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 21, 2022 16:13:37 GMT -5
I still think Farnham might attempt a hybrid starter rotation with one opener out of five starts. This depends on health and opponent. Either that or the I-80 shuttle to Sacramento. They haven’t talked about it but I keep hearing that they want eight starters. Now its time for the annual Farhan dumpster dive. Cueto, Rosenthal, and similar quality pitchers are still out there and could be had for low prices. We noted Farhan stocking up on extra arms a couple of weeks ago and he probably should sock away some more. This is also Tyler Beede's last chance, option-wise.
As to Beede...honestly, and believe me, I wish I thought differently, but if Beede actually becomes a big league pitcher I will be stunned.
His consistent command issues will always hold him back, and as I've said so often before, I believe those lie between his ears.
But Lord...I hope I'm wrong. |
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Post by reedonly on Mar 28, 2022 10:24:12 GMT -5
Now its time for the annual Farhan dumpster dive. Cueto, Rosenthal, and similar quality pitchers are still out there and could be had for low prices. We noted Farhan stocking up on extra arms a couple of weeks ago and he probably should sock away some more. This is also Tyler Beede's last chance, option-wise.
As to Beede...honestly, and believe me, I wish I thought differently, but if Beede actually becomes a big league pitcher I will be stunned.
His consistent command issues will always hold him back, and as I've said so often before, I believe those lie between his ears.
But Lord...I hope I'm wrong.Beede's sole claim to fame might end up being "drafted ahead of Partrick Mahomes". |
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Post by reedonly on Mar 28, 2022 15:18:17 GMT -5
I still think Farnham might attempt a hybrid starter rotation with one opener out of five starts. This depends on health and opponent. Either that or the I-80 shuttle to Sacramento. They haven’t talked about it but I keep hearing that they want eight starters. Now its time for the annual Farhan dumpster dive. Cueto, Rosenthal, and similar quality pitchers are still out there and could be had for low prices. We noted Farhan stocking up on extra arms a couple of weeks ago and he probably should sock away some more. This is also Tyler Beede's last chance, option-wise. The Boyd signing was done by design. Boyd is out until at least June and can spend time on the 60 day IL until he's ready mid-season. They pay him $5 million + incentives for the full season but he only takes up room on the 40 man roster when he is activated. In essence, its like trading for someone mid-season. The thinking is that if he were healthy, they wouldn't have signed him so the injury give them a roster space and reinforcement for the roster if and when one of the injury prone starting pitchers goes down. Brisbee feels that this kind of deal will happen a lot more in the future. |
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Post by reedonly on Mar 28, 2022 15:36:58 GMT -5
Now its time for the annual Farhan dumpster dive. Cueto, Rosenthal, and similar quality pitchers are still out there and could be had for low prices. We noted Farhan stocking up on extra arms a couple of weeks ago and he probably should sock away some more. This is also Tyler Beede's last chance, option-wise.
As to Beede...honestly, and believe me, I wish I thought differently, but if Beede actually becomes a big league pitcher I will be stunned.
His consistent command issues will always hold him back, and as I've said so often before, I believe those lie between his ears.
But Lord...I hope I'm wrong.Kapler was comparing Beede and Sam Long recently and feels Beede needs more work and Sam Long is "there". They are going to break with 28 out of ST so Beede might make it as the 28th man. However, like you, I would be surprised if Beede makes it because of the numbers crunch, especially after the first month of the season when they get back down to 26. They might have to spend a roster spot on Martinez because of a new rule that gives a player such as this opt outs after May 1 and Jun 1. The options shuttle is going to be more limited than last season because Estrada and Wade are out of options. |
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Post by reedonly on Mar 30, 2022 9:54:16 GMT -5
Caution on Rodon: he was one of the ones complaining about spider-tack crackdown and had a sore arm in second half of 2021. Also is a Scott Boras client. The sore arm was probably the reason why he was not tendered a QO. This guy seems like more trouble than he's worth.
I've read that among the remaining FAs, Rodon has the highest upside but has been an injury risk all of his career. To be honest, if Zaidi and Harris have not signed someone by now, it must mean that there is a good reason why they didn't. In the case of Rodon, he has three obvious things working against him.
I was pushing for them to sign Chris Taylor and at 4y//$60mm seemed reasonable and he would fit into the scheme but I think they didn't like his strikeout rate and they did not want to give up the international signing bonus money. Also, signing Taylor would resulted in one less pick for the Giants and one more pick for the Dodgers. At his age, I think he only has two more productive years so four years seems a bit much. They don't want to fall into the Mark Portugal trap by signing a player who did well against you. I think I was wrong about Rodon. Seems like a good guy and did not take his usual number 55 out of respect for Tim LIncecum. I like that the sining of Rodon pushes the other three starters into more accustomed roles, De Sclafani as a #3, Wood as a #4, and Cobb being a strong #5. Krukow feels Rodon at #2 gives opposition a different look every day. |
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 30, 2022 16:23:18 GMT -5
Caution on Rodon: he was one of the ones complaining about spider-tack crackdown and had a sore arm in second half of 2021. Also is a Scott Boras client. The sore arm was probably the reason why he was not tendered a QO. This guy seems like more trouble than he's worth.
I've read that among the remaining FAs, Rodon has the highest upside but has been an injury risk all of his career. To be honest, if Zaidi and Harris have not signed someone by now, it must mean that there is a good reason why they didn't. In the case of Rodon, he has three obvious things working against him.
I was pushing for them to sign Chris Taylor and at 4y//$60mm seemed reasonable and he would fit into the scheme but I think they didn't like his strikeout rate and they did not want to give up the international signing bonus money. Also, signing Taylor would resulted in one less pick for the Giants and one more pick for the Dodgers. At his age, I think he only has two more productive years so four years seems a bit much. They don't want to fall into the Mark Portugal trap by signing a player who did well against you. I think I was wrong about Rodon. Seems like a good guy and did not take his usual number 55 out of respect for Tim LIncecum. I like that the sining of Rodon pushes the other three starters into more accustomed roles, De Sclafani as a #3, Wood as a #4, and Cobb being a strong #5. Krukow feels Rodon at #2 gives opposition a different look every day. |
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Post by reedonly on Apr 24, 2022 17:58:47 GMT -5
Marcus Stroman 2022 ERA 8.78, Robbie Ray 4.61 SO/9 down by almost half, Gausman 2.89, Greinke 2.25.
I had a feeling that Robbie Ray might have been a fluke in 2021 but if this continues, Stroman could be a shocker. Surprised Gausman is doing well so far. After dealing with Cueto and Samarzdija, its like you never can tell. Based on history of free agent pitchers such as Shields, Zimmerman, Cueto, which are all a notch below top tier talents, its probably not a good idea to sign pitchers to big free agent contracts. The top talents like Scherzer, Lester, or Cole are worth it but the dropoff to the next tier is a tremendous risk.
Last off-season, we were talking about how nice it would be to sign Stoman, Ray, and so forth. USA Today mentioned that the money that could have spent on one pitcher was spread among eight players: Rodon, Cobb, Desclafani, Wood, Belt, Pederson, Junis, and Boyd. That's most of the starting pitching. The article also mentioned that Cobb was very impressed by the way the organization is run with the use of load management and that their use of data exceeds that of Tampa Bay (usually seen as the most innovative).
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Post by reedonly on Apr 26, 2022 8:31:53 GMT -5
Hjelle might make for a decent 5th starter. Beede has had his troubles and health issues but I still haven't given up on him maybe being a late bloomer. Long has a nice curveball, I think he could be a factor as well. I wouldn't mind testing these guys out in spot starts, but I'd be more comfortable with that if we had a solid #1-4, but we don't. has a lot of good information and they are saying that Hjelle is having a good April with ERA standing at 1.96. |
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Post by reedonly on Apr 28, 2022 16:16:51 GMT -5
I think I was wrong about Rodon. Seems like a good guy and did not take his usual number 55 out of respect for Tim LIncecum. I like that the sining of Rodon pushes the other three starters into more accustomed roles, De Sclafani as a #3, Wood as a #4, and Cobb being a strong #5. Krukow feels Rodon at #2 gives opposition a different look every day. Last off season, there was this long ongoing discussion (seemed like this discussion lasted from Thanksgiving until Christmas) of whether DeSclafani was a #2 or a #3 starter. If a pitcher is not playing, he is less than useless. Not only is he not contributing to the team, he's taking up a roster space. DeSclafani and his ankle have shown his worth. |
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Post by Islandboagie on Apr 28, 2022 17:08:44 GMT -5
I recall saying that I felt Desclafani was more of a bottom rotation starter, Rog believed him to be more of a frontline guy.
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Post by reedonly on Apr 29, 2022 10:36:37 GMT -5
I recall saying that I felt Desclafani was more of a bottom rotation starter, Rog believed him to be more of a frontline guy. I'm not sure how he came to that conclusion aside from saying that if he's in the top sixty of pitchers, then by definition or default, he's a number 2. The way he pitched last season, I actually felt more unease when DeSclafani started than when Webb, Wood, or Gausman started. At least with Wood, he is the type of pitcher that picks up a team after a tough outing. Also, DeSclafani should not be a number two on a playoff team. The Giants got Rodon after the lockout so I guess their offseason strategy worked to some extent. |
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Post by reedonly on Apr 29, 2022 15:39:09 GMT -5
Now its time for the annual Farhan dumpster dive. Cueto, Rosenthal, and similar quality pitchers are still out there and could be had for low prices. We noted Farhan stocking up on extra arms a couple of weeks ago and he probably should sock away some more. This is also Tyler Beede's last chance, option-wise. The Boyd signing was done by design. Boyd is out until at least June and can spend time on the 60 day IL until he's ready mid-season. They pay him $5 million + incentives for the full season but he only takes up room on the 40 man roster when he is activated. In essence, its like trading for someone mid-season. The thinking is that if he were healthy, they wouldn't have signed him so the injury give them a roster space and reinforcement for the roster if and when one of the injury prone starting pitchers goes down. Brisbee feels that this kind of deal will happen a lot more in the future. And sure enough, the Giants claimed Darien Nunez off waivers from the Dodgers. Last season he had an ERA of 2.42 in AAA in 31 games. In fact, he heard the news a few hours after he had Tommy John surgery. I guess this is the new edge Farhan is looking at, to go after the injured players, pay for their rehab for a year, then use them the next year. You have to wonder, though, if Farhan has more patience with other team's players than his own. Nunez was DFA'ed by the Dodgers to make room for..... Reyes Moronta. (Reyes Moronta said he was healthy after pitching last winter. Jury is out on Moronta as he has only pitched an inning with the Dodgers but it was a low risk move for them) Trade rumors noted that the Nunez move parallels the move the Giants made with Luis Gonzalez last year, obtaining an injured guy that was DFA'ed to save money and service time. Not only is Farhan doing the dumpster dive, he is going after broken pieces in the dumpster. Essentially its like a trade or Moronta for Nunez and they felt Nunez could get back to where he was more so than Moronta. Moronta was said to have lost some velocity and was heavy last season so maybe the Giants did not like that. At any rate, when the rosters get trimmed from 28 to 26, Farhan's eyes are going to light up like a kid on Christmas. |
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Post by reedonly on Apr 29, 2022 22:33:22 GMT -5
And just like that, two days later, Nunez gets released. I understood why they acquired him but I don't understand why they would release him so quickly.
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Post by reedonly on Apr 30, 2022 15:02:58 GMT -5
They might have acquired Nunez with the intent of hiding him somewhere on the roster but with all of the COVID moves they made, they would have been required to put Nunez on the 60 day, which would require them paying him and accruing service time.
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Post by reedonly on Jun 18, 2022 21:42:13 GMT -5
I just realized the current Pirate roster has a lot of ex-Giants on it. We know about Reynolds, but also Heineman, Quintanta, Stratton, and Hembree. One guy on their roster is Beede. His ERA is a tick lower but I'm not sure if the change in scenery helped because he's still issuing a lot of walks.
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