Hunter Bishop

[sfgdood]

Giants first round pick today. Pretty good pop...nice swing. Not liking that he's left handed but maybe that wont be as much of an issue by the time he makes the bigs.

[klaiggeb]

Except for the assinine hip hop music(?) to open it up, that kid is impressive.

Obvious power to all field, but his knob-lead when he drives the ball the other way is truly awesome!

Bat is quick through the zone, and man! He gets those hips open when the ball is pullable!

Impressive!!!!



He is out of position, however, in CF, much like Posey was out of position as a SS.


He lacks the range and speed to be there in the pros.

As what I read about him says, likely a corner of in the pros, and that's just fine by me!

Wow!

Thanks, Randy!!

[sfgdood]

Not making any predictions but his swing reminds me a lot of Chipper Jones

[rog]

Bishop didn't look all that fast to me either, but I did hear that he runs a 6.4 60, which is pretty darn fast!

Incidentally, know which batter has the fastest time to first base this season? It is a tall first baseman/outfielder named Clay Bellinger. I know Clay is very fast, but that one surprised me. One might expect a hitter with less backswing, although at least a big swings propels a left-handed hitter TOWARD first base rather than away from it as it does a right-handed hitter.

I didn't like that Bishop himself seemed to be in no hurry to exit the box after hitting the ball.

[rog]

I agree that Bishop will likely become a corner outfielder, a fate I also expect for Heliot Ramos. That said, Heliot is still playing center field at this time. I mentioned earlier that I would like to see him adapt a much more aggressive set up in the outfield. He seemed lazy and sluggish in that regard to me.

If Steven Duggar can find a way to get on base, he can play center field -- even though I was disappointed with him on two balls in just a few days this past week or so.

[klaiggeb]

Duggars OBP has to improved... but likely won't.

IMHO, getting on base via working counts, is something you are or are not born with.

[rog]

Steven got on base in the minors. There he walked once every 7 at bats. In the majors, he has walked just once every 16 at bats. That's a decline of over half.

I think he's got to be more patient by being more aggressive. That seems like an oxymoron, but he's got to put balls well enough into play when they're over the strike zone to force pitchers to have to work him outside the zone, allowing him to draw more walks.

Right now I don't think pitcher believe they have to do anything special to get him out. He needs to prove them wrong.

[rog]

Right now, Steven appears to have been born to get on base in the minors, but not in the majors. He needs to examine why that is.

[rog]

By the way, are we seeing now that Steven wasn't really hitting the ball as well last season as we thought he was?

[klaiggeb]

From my observations, for a guy who supposedly has a future in the one hole, he chases far, too, too, tooooooooooooooooooo many pitches that are marginal, or down right out of the hitting zone.

He has shown me zero patience at the plate.

[sfgdood]

I don't want to hear anything about he projects here or projects there...the dude plays defense and he can run like the wind. Maybe he's not what we want him to but guess what...I'll definitely take him as is

[rog]

The Giants need better players than Steven is right now, Randy. I'm with you on his fielding, but his hitting is very poor.

Steven goes outside the zone less then three out of ten bad pitches, which is pretty good discipline. He swings at only about 1% more bad pitches than Brandon Belt, who is believed to have a pretty good eye. But Brandon swings at about 10% more strikes than Steven does.

IMO Steven needs to be a little more aggressive about swinging at strikes. And he needs to refine his swing -- cut down on it a little? -- so that he puts the ball in play more often before two strikes. He's gone to two strikes in 128 of his 228 plate appearances this season -- and he's struck out in just over half his two-strike appearances.

He's hit the ball on the ground over half the time he's hit it this season. Unless a player can really spray the ball around or pound it into the ground for high bounces, it's tough to make much hay doing that. The infielders are simply too good.

I asked what mechanical adjustments he should make, but I don't believe I got a reply.

[klaiggeb]

He needs to get better, Randy, so to that point, I agree with Roger.

But he's young, and he's still learning, so I like his upside.

In the mean time, we can all enjoy and appreciate his defense.

[sfgdood]

I'd love to see him improve his offense, of course. But if we get a roster around him that can score runs, Id be ecstatic with Steven's defense even with no offensive improvement.

[klaiggeb]

I agree, Randy.

And honestly, the way he comes through, consistently with RISP, both last year and this year, I think he will improve and be more than just "serviceable."

I project that he'll be a high .260's/low.270's hitter, capable of hitting 15 ish HRs/year. with a lot of 3B and 2B.

[rog]

It's possible that Hunter Bishop will be the Giants' center fielder of the future. Depends in part on how his frame fills out.

Apparently his speed is real. He received some 70 speed grades, which I think would compare favorably with Duggar. The McCovey Chronicles wrote up Bishop as having the tools of a high school player with the experience of a college guy. Baseball America had him as their #7 prospect, and Enos Sarris wrote that some evaluators he trusted had Bishop in their top 3.

The downside with Bishop is said to be that as his hitting improved, Pac-10 teams began throwing him more curve balls, and he was swinging over the top of them. One of his big boosters though is fellow Arizona State guy Eric Byrnes, who has known him many years and promised he would be a star.

The Giants focused on bats, and in particular the picked up a lot of shortstops. It should be noted that shortstops are often the best athletes and sometimes move to other positions.

[klaiggeb]

I don't care what his speed numbers, are, Roger. I watched the video.

He does not break well on balls, and did not show ANY Cf instincts in the 8 or 9 clips that I watched.

Even the pro scouts are projecting him as a corner OF.

[klaiggeb]

Hitting a breaking ball can be learned.

Not that everyone can learn to do it, but it can be done.

Requires tons of repetitions, and patience, and character.

We'll see if he can do that.


What I, personally, like best about this draft is that everyone says they drafted not only kids with talent, but kids with character.

I've said this before, character can NEVER be underestimated.

Never!


Part of baseball "character," is mental toughness. Something I have yet to see in Tyler Beede.

[rog]

I don't care what his speed numbers, are, Roger. I watched the video.


Rog -- See, that is the type of comment that shows me a closed mind. Bishop doesn't look like a center fielder to me either, and that's just watching him get out of the box. And you are right that he is expected to put on weight and move to a corner.

But the 6.4 60-yard dash time came from the Oregon State Coach, who was interviewed at the draft, which he attended because he coached the #1 overall pick. And we should care what Bishop's speed numbers are because they'll play well in Oracle Park, particularly in a corner position, and they'll help him on the bases, where the Giants have long lacked speed.

By the way, why did my comment "It is POSSIBLE (caps for emphasis) that Hunter Bishop will be the Giants center fielder of the future prompt the comment "I don't care what his speed numbers are."? Isn't that a bit of an overreaction? I'm sorry to be harsh, but you took a possibility and simply closed your mind to it.

I'm not expecting Bishop to become the Giants' center fielder either (and in fact mentioned the Giants' #3 pick as a possibility there, not to mention Steven Duggar), but even though I didn't think Bishop looked like a center fielder, I didn't close my mind to it.

Eric Byrnes said Bishop could play all three outfield positions. Usually what that means is that a guy is well-suited to play a corner, but can play center if necessary. That sounds about right to me.

By the way, the speed number I quoted was a scouting grade. We SHOULD care about those, whether we like analytics or not, since we're talking scouting. And when we ignore scouts entirely and rely only on our own judgments, we run the risk of misjudging a player like Gary Brown.

I think that it is possible -- perhaps even likely -- that when Bishop signs, he'll become the fastest Giant anywhere in the organization. If he's not, that will be a blessing, since apparently his speed is real. It also seems likely that he'll fill out and lose some of that speed -- and, yes, wind up as a corner outfielder. He certainly has the power for it.

Heliot Ramos can run too, and also possesses power. These factors bode well for the future of Giants corner outfielding, which has been mostly a disaster since Hunter Pence got hit in the forearm in spring training several seasons ago.

Not much has been said about it, but Pence is still hitting .287 with a .932 OPS for the Rangers this season. That OPS is more than 100 points higher than he ever put up as a Giant. He's hit the ball hard this season, including a career-high 49% hard-hit rate. Good for an all-time Giant!

As for Ramos, he's not hitting .297 with a .986 OPS for San Jose. How does he look to you, Randy?

Joey Bart went 2-for-3 with a homer in his return from injury, but is hitless in his two games since, including two strikeouts last night.




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[rog]

Either Byrnes or the Oregon State coach mentioned that Bishop was a football player in high school, and his baseball instincts are beginning to catch up. He was voted the most improved player in the Pac-12.

As for Pac-12 hitters, watch out for Vaughn out of Cal, the #3 overall pick by the White Sox. He's only six feet tall and not considered to be a good first baseman, but he's a pure hitter with power and exceptional pitch recognition. He could probably hit in the majors right now. At least that was the opinion of either Byrnes or the coach. And of course the #1 overall pick, the catcher out of Oregon State, was also from the Pac-12. He is considered to be an exceptional defensive catcher as well as a fine hitter and will likely surpass even Bart as a catching prospect.

With Bishop going out of Arizona State at #10 overall, I'd say it was a pretty good top of the first round for the Pac.

I believe if the season ended today, the Giants would have the #6 overall pick next year.

[rog]

Interesting draft strategy by the Mets, who drafted three high-upside high school players with their first three picks, then loaded up with cheap and easy college senior signs the rest of the way. They got what was considered to be a top 15 talent in the third round because the guy was considered a very expensive signing. The Mets' strategy was to have a lot of signing cap money available to sign him.

The college seniors are said to be decent players too, so the Mets' gamble could result in as many as three very good high school players along with the experience and stability of the older college players. It will be intriguing to see how this turns out. Might be the beginning of a shift in thinking.

To me, if a team can gets stars, they can usually find a way to fill in around them. That's one of the reasons I was intrigued when the Giants drafted Heliot Ramos. Ramos was more athlete than baseball player, but he was only 17 years old and had upside.

This season more than ever that upside appears to be attainable. Randy?

[klaiggeb]

See, only looking at the 'numbers' shows me a closed mind.

It works both ways, Roger.

Numbers DON'T show instincts.They can't.

I can ONLY comment on the 7 or 8 plays that I SAW, and I'm not going to get into an argument with you about whether he is, or isn't a CF.

Byrnes said he can play all 3 spots.

Fine.

Other opinions I've read from "experts" say he's likely a corner outfielder.

It's too early to tell, I only commented on what I saw.

But you stick with your numbers.

Me?

I'll remember Marvin Benard who had good speed numbers too.

But he was a terrible CF.

Took bad routes, got bad reads...

[sfgdood]

I remember Jerry Rice's speed numbers not being great coming out of college...but put him on the football field and he always seemed to get separation. The tape doesn't lie

[rog]

See, only looking at the 'numbers' shows me a closed mind.


Rog -- Which is why I don't look only at the numbers. Long before I knew anything about analytics, I knew a lot about baseball.

You mentioned instincts. Of course the numbers don't show instincts. If you want to see what many consider to be the best instincts in the game, watch Andrelton Simmons. He's got a great glove and lots of range, but many think it is his instincts that set him apart.

As I've mentioned, I also think Brandon Crawford has exceptional instincts, but Andrelton's are even better. That's kind of the story there -- Brandon has many excellent skills, and in most cases Simmons' are even better.

Instincts can turn INTO numbers, since they can turn into outs (which aside from runs is perhaps the game's most important number), but the numbers themselves don't show us anything about instincts.




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[rog]

Byrnes said he can play all 3 spots.

Fine.

Other opinions I've read from "experts" say he's likely a corner outfielder.

It's too early to tell, I only commented on what I saw.


Rog -- Based on the little I saw, I didn't think Bishop was even fast. But the Oregon State coach said he ran 6.4 in the 60-yard-dash, which is very fast.

Byrnes said he can play all three outfield positions, but as I mentioned earlier, that normally means a player is better suited for a corner but can handle center if necessary. I have since read that Bishop will likely wind up in left field, and I'm expecting Ramos to gravitate to right. I'd love it if the center fielder the Giants drafted in the third round becomes the center fielder, but from what I've read he's really, really raw despite being the son of a former major leaguer, so it will likely be a while.

He's a high school player, so even if he weren't exceptionally raw it would probably take a while. That said, Ramos was raw when the Giants drafted him, and I now expect him up in 2021 or 2022.

Bishop too is said to have been a late bloomer and was voted the most improved player this year in the Pac-12. But as a college player, he should be within a year of Ramos' timetable.


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[rog]

What did you guys think of the Mets' draft strategy? I thought it was pretty sound.

[klaiggeb]

Don't know what the did, Roger, as I don't follow the baseball draft.

it's not like the NFL draft where players come in and often start right away.

I lost interest in the minor leagues after Solomon Torres and a few others of that time period were so highly thought of, so hell-fire sure they were going to be good... and then fizzled miserably.

So until I see a kid play, like Bart or Heliot, I just put them out of my mind.

[rog]

I remember Jerry Rice's speed numbers not being great coming out of college.


Rog -- Jerry had excellent field speed, whereas his speed in non-game situations was good but not great. In football in particular, the equipment makes a difference.




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[rog]

I explained what the Mets did, Boly. They drafted three high-priced high school kids (who have the leverage of going to college) with their first three picks. Their #3 pick in particular was a player with top 15 talent who dropped because of his price tag. The Mets then drafted mostly college seniors, who have very little leverage (It's play or sit out a year) and are thus cheap to sign. The Mets focused their available pool dollars to spend on the three high school guys. That allows them to get perhaps three very good prospects while filling out their minor league rosters with cheaper players.

I really liked the strategy, as I'm a big fan of drafting potential stars as opposed to safer but more mediocre players.

[rog]

Salomon Torres is a reason I like numbers, Boly. I didn't understand them back then, and I can tell you that I misjudged Salomon too. And that former Giant Brad Wellman misjudged him as well. I know because Brad and I had sons playing hockey together, and we became friends, and so we talked a lot of Giants -- and Salomon in particular.

But while Salomon was highly touted, there was a red flag. Dominant pitchers usually strike out a lot of hitters, and they don't give up a lot of hits. Salomon's first season in AA, 1992, he gave up 167 hits in 162 innings -- and posted only a 4.21 ERA. When he was promoted to AAA Tacoma in 1993, he gave up 105 hits in 105 innings.

Salomon was over-hyped. I didn't see it then, but I would likely see it now -- or at least have a much better chance of seeing it.

I didn't see it; Brad Wellman didn't see it; but if one knows some analytics, it was there to be spotted.

I LOVE to watch the Giants' top minor league prospects. What a great night it was on April 10, 2009 when my son and I saw Madison Bumgarner pitch to Buster Posey for the first time. Late the previous summer I watched Buster catch fellow first-round pick Tim Alderson in the Cal League Playoffs. I got my first glimpse of Buster and of Alderson, who was drafted late in the first round of the 2007 draft behind Bumgarner.

I remember posting here that Alderson was throwing only in the high 80's and that the radar guy at San Jose told me he hadn't hit higher than 92 all season. In 2009, Alderson was traded for Freddie Sanchez. He likely wouldn't have been traded had he thrown faster. And because of his lack of speed, Tim never made the big leagues.

I don't know if the Giants have a team that plays in Idaho, Boly. Maybe Salem-Keizer, which is a stop for many of their top prospects, usually in their first season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hunter Bishop play there for part of this summer. Joey Bart played there last season, providing Boagie a chance to watch him.

Watching the minor league players is exhilarating. Understanding the numbers can tell us a fair amount about a player we've never even seen. We're going to make mistakes in judging players by scouting them. We're going to make mistakes in judging players analytically. But if we combine the two, we're less likely to make a mistake, and our mistakes are likely to be of less magnitude.

I missed with Salomon Torres -- even though I was discussing him with a former major league player who at the time of our discussions taught baseball as a profession. I believe I would have a better chance today of not making the same mistake.

I knew a lot of baseball back in 1993, but I know a lot more today. If I'm around in another 26 years, I should know a whole lot more then.