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Post by holiday613 on Feb 10, 2019 13:19:20 GMT -5
Now that t appears that the Giants-Harper might be more of a reality I have to officially bemoan the move for the following reason: We know that the team is fundamentally flawed in many areas, namely speed, youth defense and building a solid 24 man roster. In todays day and age, one superstar will not put you over the top..We went thru a decade with Barry Bonds who aside from 2002 never got us to the World Series. Now, I don't anticipate Bryce Harper getting anywhere near a 10 year 300 million contract..I believe the Giants will offer him a 3 yr/100 million or 4 yr/120 million contract with an opt out after the second year..The money can be better spent spreading it out elsewhere..Harper didn't come off a career year and he has been injury prone in the past...Signing him would be another huge mistake and although I would love watching him come to bat 4 times a night, I know it wouldn't get us much closer to the post season....The Giants mission should be to somehow get rid of their bad contracts ( easier said than done, I know, but it can be done by creative thinking and throwing in a good prospect) regroup and rebuild and pounce on the prize free agents when they are the missing piece...Right now our SP is in shambles relative to most of the league and most of our "stars" are in decline...No reason to believe that suddenly everyone will wake up and have career years...Enough of the myopic dreams...Haven't the Giants learnt anything from their recent history??? Why continue making the same mistakes?  |
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 10, 2019 13:54:05 GMT -5
Here's more reality.
1-The Giants are NOT going to rebuild.
That is obvious.
Zaidi and Baer of pretty much come out and said that.
In fact, the thought of a 'rebuild,' clearly ticked off Posey, and likely the other Giant veterans, too.
Since they refuse to rebuild, what else would you like them to do other than win?
2-They think they can go a different direction than signing aging veterans past their peak; Harper is only 26.
3-The Giants were very competitive during many of the Bonds years.
From 1997 through 2004 they won:
90, 89, 86, 97, 90, 95, 100, 91 games.
They finished 1st or 2nd in each and everyone of those years.
How is that not being competitive?
4-They've tried to unload some of their bad contracts, and even though I'm not happy with Zaidi, even he is smart enough to know they have to 'get out from under.'
You're making it sound as if they can only do one or the other.
Doesn't work that way.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 10, 2019 14:16:39 GMT -5
Isn't it ironic that the one time we finally might actually sign a legit FA hitter is when he'll be the least use to us?
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 10, 2019 15:33:47 GMT -5
It is ironic, that's for sure, Randy
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Post by holiday613 on Feb 10, 2019 22:11:25 GMT -5
3-The Giants were very competitive during many of the Bonds years. From 1997 through 2004 they won: 90, 89, 86, 97, 90, 95, 100, 91 games.>>>>> They finished 1st or 2nd in each and everyone of those years. How is that not being competitive? Perhaps it was because they had an excellent supporting cast in JT Snow,Jeff Kent, Rich Aurilia and Mueller for most of that time? Who are you going to count on for that kind of offensive production now? Guys who can barely hit 15 hr's in a season? Get real Boly!!!! Not to mention a real time closer in Nenn!!
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 10, 2019 23:22:56 GMT -5
You just proved they DID have good teams in the Bonds era, Mordy. So what's your point exactly?
I believe it was a lack of leadership and bad management that prevented the Bonds teams to not win a championship or two. Baker didn't know how to manage the pitching staff, and Alou was too senile to manage anything. Otherwise, on paper they were good.
Now we have a strong manager, good leadership and guys who know how to win. Might as well add a Bryce Harper and see what happens.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 11, 2019 1:30:30 GMT -5
Boly -- How is that not being competitive? Mordy -- Perhaps it was because they had an excellent supporting cast in JT Snow,Jeff Kent, Rich Aurilia and Mueller for most of that time? Rog -- As Boagie posted, you pretty much backed up Boly's statement with what you posted right here. You demonstrated your point that one superstar can't do it all, but you didn't put a dent in Boly's point. You are indeed right on your basic point, that one guy can't do it all. We've talked about a team's need to have a roster that grades out around 40 or more wins above replacement if it wasnt to have a strong shot (not just a shot) at being competitive. Even Mike Trout isn't usually a quarter of that. If a team is say 35 games above replacement (which is considered to be 40 wins), adding someone like Bryce Harper can make big sense. Perhaps that is part of the Giants' thinking in presenting a big, short-term offer to Harper, with the idea being to give their existing team at least SOMETHING approaching a true chance without over-committing money to the future. I still favor the long-term approach, and it is likely true that the Phillies can outbid the Giants. The Phillies went into the off-season saying that they were willing to overpay if necessary. I think the Giants are still more about value. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5076/on-harper#ixzz5fCX0ZGuT |
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Post by holiday613 on Feb 11, 2019 3:48:34 GMT -5
You just proved they DID have good teams in the Bonds era, Mordy. So what's your point exactly? I believe it was a lack of leadership and bad management that prevented the Bonds teams to not win a championship or two. Baker didn't know how to manage the pitching staff, and Alou was too senile to manage anything. Otherwise, on paper they were good. Now we have a strong manager, good leadership and guys who know how to win. Might as well add a Bryce Harper and see what happens. Well not exactly...and let me make my point clear..When Bonds was signed before the 1993 season, they had a solid supporting system in place already in Will Clark and Matt Williams..After the 1993 season , even with Bonds they went into the tank for the next 3 seasons..Until the 1997 season when some of their youngsters and players via trade began to come into their own...Contrast that with todays supporting cast which consists of aging veterans in decline who can barely get to the 15 homer mark..There is below avg output from almost everyone not named Posey and even he is a question mark after his off season surgery...Ading Harper to this crew would make them at best a .500 team which isnt good enough for me...And THAT is my point...Surely Baker was a horrible manager and from those that remember me during that time period I was his most outspoken critic....But Bochy isn't that much better, his 3 rings aside...Leadership roles are over rated.. "Guys who know how to win" while certainly NOT a negative, isnt the big positive that people think....Again I argue that the Giants currently constructed, don't have the supporting staff , that will help them become a playoff team with the addition of a Harper..their SP is below avg, they don't have a closer not to mention a below league avg offense...I certainly respect the opposing argument but I just happen to think I am right and you guys are wrong!!! This is all a mute point because push comes to shove Harper isnt signing with us anyway but it was fun!!!! |
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 11, 2019 10:06:04 GMT -5
In 1992, the year before Bonds was signed the "strong supporting cast already in place" had a record of 72-90. Last season the Giants were 73-89.
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 11, 2019 10:28:05 GMT -5
Mordy, you missed my point.
I was responding to the post where the poster said, and I paraphrase, "what's good about signing one player when they won't put a supporting cast around him?"
My point was, and is, you CAN compete if you put good players around that 'one' guy.
And as you pointed out, JT, Kent, Aurilia and others, certainly were that.
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Post by holiday613 on Feb 11, 2019 11:10:04 GMT -5
In 1992, the year before Bonds was signed the "strong supporting cast already in place" had a record of 72-90. Last season the Giants were 73-89. Which is precisely the point im trying to make...Unlike 1992, this team DOES NOT have the supporting crew to compliment a Harper like signing..Aside from Posey who is coming off an injury there is no player that I consider above league average and with our starting pitching questionable at bet, this isnt the time to make a leap and commit a ton of money for Harper... |
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Post by holiday613 on Feb 11, 2019 11:11:29 GMT -5
Mordy, you missed my point. I was responding to the post where the poster said, and I paraphrase, "what's good about signing one player when they won't put a supporting cast around him?" My point was, and is, you CAN compete if you put good players around that 'one' guy. And as you pointed out, JT, Kent, Aurilia and others, certainly were that. Boly, as I mentioned to Boagie, all of our so called good players are in decline...No reason to throw good money after bad |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 11, 2019 12:23:38 GMT -5
I believe the 92 season was negatively effected by the whole "leaving to Florida" cloud overhead. Bonds was great but he wasn't the ONLY reason for the great 93 season.
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 11, 2019 17:34:50 GMT -5
In decline, Mordy?
Not sure if I agree.
Belt is 30
Crawford is 31
Panik is 27
Posey is 31
That is not old by any stretch of the clock.
Consider what the following players did at or after the age of 30
Willie Davis
.305
.309
.285
.295
Tommy Davis
.284
.278
.285
.295
Norm Cash
3o HRs
32 HRs
22 HRs
25 HRs
22 HRs
Felipe Alou
.297
.327
.274
.282
Billy Bruton
.272
.278
.280
.281
Al Kaline
.281
.308
.287
Those were just some random guys I picked.
Not super stars like Aaron, Mays, or Robinson or Mantle.
Those guys were also super athletes
The guys I picked were just good players.
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Post by holiday613 on Feb 11, 2019 18:11:34 GMT -5
In decline, Mordy? Not sure if I agree. Belt is 30 Crawford is 31 Panik is 27 Posey is 31 That is not old by any stretch of the clock. Their stats are in decline not their age...Not to mention either injury prone or coming off injuries... |
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 11, 2019 22:44:55 GMT -5
Belt is 30 Crawford is 31 Panik is 27 Posey is 31 Rog -- They're certainly not old, but each is coming off a down season. In the case of the two Brandon's, it's been two down seasons. In Belt's case, one could argue three out of the past four. Injuries have been the biggest issue, and players tend to get injured more as they age. Players are also aging earlier than used to be the case. Old baseball age was often postponed earlier this century during the steroids era, so we got used to an unusually delayed aging curve. In addition, the young players are better and better at seemingly unusually young ages. A lot is physical, and some may be because the younger guys are able to learn from the new metrics more easily. Not sure about that last point, but it's a possibility. It is also possible that as the older players begin to improve their game by improved use of analytics, they'll be able to slow down the aging curve again. It will be intriguing to watch. But the four players you mentioned haven't been as good in recent years as they were in their primes. Part of the Giants' being able to compete this year and next will be based on how well these guys are able to bounce back. As an aside, most of the guys you chose as your old-time examples were better players offensively than the present Giants you're comparing them to. The Giants of 2019 are tough to predict, since as you say, they're not all that old, but on the other hand, they've been clearly declining. Is it only temporary? That would certainly help out a lot. On the pitching side of things, Madison, Samardzija, Cueto and Melancon aren't all that old either, but each has been heading down, perhaps in great part due to injuries. I doubt very much that the Giants are good enough without Harper, and they may not be good enough with him. Even if they sign Bryce, they need more outfield help. At the moment, their outfield is likely the worst in the majors. Three positions that are that bad are tough for a team to overcome. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5076/on-harper#ixzz5fHgY9bef |
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 11, 2019 22:48:09 GMT -5
Aside from Posey who is coming off an injury there is no player that I consider above league average Rog -- When healthy, Brandon Belt is likely above average due to his excellent glove. As mentioned though, he's been down at the plate three out of the past four seasons. Even so though, he's been a decent hitter, which coupled with his glove makes hinm a valuable player when he's healthy. Brandon Crawford is still a good player, but the shortstops around him in the majors have improved more than any other position I can think of. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5076/on-harper?page=1#ixzz5fHjuzGaN |
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Post by Islandboagie on Feb 11, 2019 23:27:32 GMT -5
I understand Mordy's point of view. I would include Randy in that, but I honestly believe if we do get Harper he'd be stoked too. I think Randy just wants to stick to his guns with the rebuild strategy, I get that too.
I am a strong believer that you can't build around a superstar that sucks up a large portion of your payroll. But we're not building around Harper, we built around our young kids that we drafted 10 or so years ago. Those guys still want to win, and I think they still can with a little help. Harper is the help.
This isn't like teams of the past, I had no problem blowing up those rosters and starting over, this is different. These guys gave us Championships, and as long as they're still willing and capable, we deserve it to them to give them the best chance to win again.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 12, 2019 5:55:05 GMT -5
Bumgarner, Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford and Sandoval. Those are the six who played on at least on championship team. They are the blessing, but they are also the problem.
Why the problem? Because between them they will make $90 million this season, and last year they were worth only 11 wins. That's only half a payroll, and yet the wins are only about a quarter of what are needed to make the postseason. Thank goodness most of Pablo's $20 million or so is paid by the Red Sox.
Even worse, Cueto, Samardzija and Melancon will make about $55 million, and last year they were worth one win. Added to the previous group, that's $145 million ($125 of it paid by the Giants), and only a dozen wins added above replacement players.
The Giants aren't a good team because their highly paid players aren't good enough, and the players they have that aren't highly paid aren't very good at all.
The Giants are talking about a short-term contract for Bryce Harper. Throw in another $40 million for him in 2019, and the Giants would have a payroll of $185 million ($165 million of it paid by the Giants) being paid to 10 players who were worth only 13 wins in 2019. Yes, because his fielding and base running were poor last season, Bryce was only a one-win player.
If the Giants sign him, they need him to be closer to the 10-win player he was in his 2015 MVP season.
Buster Posey will be a Hall of Famer, but he can't carry a team over a full season. Madison Bumgarner might become a Hall of Famer, but as good as he is, he might be able to carry a team over a postseason, but not a full season.
Bryce Harper is capable, when playing his very best, of carrying a team over a season. Then again, Bryce isn't close to Mike Trout, and Mike hasn't carried the Angels anywhere. Not even with Andrelton Simmons averaging seven wins over the past two seasons.
It's tough to surround the big stars with enough talent. A lot of that talent usually has to come from the young, lower paid players. The good, young, lower paid players on the Giants have now become highly paid players who are past their peaks. It's not that they're old, but they're past their peaks. They're in their peak earning years, not their peak playing years.
That's why the Giants are in such tough shape.
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Post by rxmeister on Feb 12, 2019 8:59:31 GMT -5
Panik 2B
Belt 1B
Posey C
Harper RF
Longoria 3B
Craw SS
Mac or Adam Jones LF
Duggar CF
Bum
Samardzija
Pomeranz
Holland
Suarez
Rodriguez
Smith
Watson
Melancon
Dyson
Moronta
Black
Can that team beat the Dodgers? No. Can it compete for a wild card? Of course it can. Will there be 40 thousand fans there every night? You better believe it! Take it from a Jets/Knicks fan. Rebuilding sucks! And impatient Randy of all people? You’ll be the first to complain as they stink they way through a 100 loss season. And rebuilding in baseball isn’t like rebuilding in other sports. In basketball and football you create cap space and get a high draft pick and can put those picks right into your lineup. You can rebuild in one year! In baseball you get your high draft pick and hope he’s ready in three years if ever! You don’t want this, especially with the weak farm system the Giants have. It will take forever!
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Post by holiday613 on Feb 12, 2019 10:55:22 GMT -5
Panik 2B....Decent contact hitter...Injury prone and defense is slipping Belt 1B....Concussion prone..Can't be counted on Posey C......Coming off an injury...Has totally lost the ability to hit for power Harper RF......Wil never happe, but even if it did, will be walked 3 times a game, with this crappy lineup Longoria 3B....No range at 3rd.,..diminishing power...prone to swinging at balls off the plate..Was once a great hitter...No more... Craw SS........Solid fielder..Avg hitter at best...Too streaky to be counted on Mac or Adam Jones LF........Concussion prone/Better days have past him too Duggar CF........The one exciting player but remains to be seen what he can do...Wasn't impressed with his plate discipline but certainly room for improvement Bum........The one stud but his #'s show he is on the back 9 Samardzija.....LOLOLOLOLOL Pomeranz ......Coming off an awful season..Trash pickup Holland........Great season last year..Fluke or not? remains to be seen Suarez ........Certainly shows promise Rodriguez......Sophomore jiinx? Stud season last year... Smith .........Great stuff...Closer material Watson..........great first half, tailed off in the latter part Melancon.....LOLOLOLOL Dyson........LOLOLOLOL Moronta........Great arm...Love him Black .........Same as Moranta although prone to the gopher ball This team EVEN with Harper would struggle to play .500 ball |
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Post by klaiggeb on Feb 12, 2019 11:05:28 GMT -5
I guess I'm going to disagree again, Mordy.
Now 1 season + after surgery, I look for Melancon to have a good bounce back season.
Same with Panik and Belt.
They are simply DUE to be healthy.
Same with Bum
Pomeranz had arm problems last year, and now, supposedly, is healthy.
I like the signing and I'll take my chances with him.
I agree with Mark.
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Post by holiday613 on Feb 12, 2019 11:13:20 GMT -5
I guess I'm going to disagree again, Mordy. Now 1 season + after surgery, I look for Melancon to have a good bounce back season. Same with Panik and Belt. They are simply DUE to be healthy. Same with Bum Pomeranz had arm problems last year, and now, supposedly, is healthy. I like the signing and I'll take my chances with him. I agree with Mark. Keep dreaming Boly...and what the hell do you mean by DUE to be healthy?? You know I love ya Boly, but that talk is just nonsense.... |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 12, 2019 13:33:41 GMT -5
Rx's roster ASSUMES the Giants get not one but TWO large FA signings. They have been unable to snag even one in decades and still they, in his mind, only will be "wild card contenders." Instead of banking on doing something no GM has been able to do and only at best competing for a WC, I'm in favor of the full rebuild. I promise if Fargeek shows he's SERIOUS about rebuilding, you'll hear no complaining from me about the team's results. If he stays with Bobby Evans' riduculous patchwork strategy, I'll be more critical than ever.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 12, 2019 13:42:39 GMT -5
To me, everyone has made some good points here. I wasn't overly impressed with Mordy's analysis such as "LOLOLOLOL" and "trash pickup," but overall I thought he was pretty well on track. My favorite was probably that Madison is "on the back nine." We all of course wish he weren't, but I thought Mordy said it succinctly and said it accurately. Certainly the belief around baseball agrees with him.
The thing about the game is that from season to season there is such a wide variance in possible performances. Even without Harper, it is possible the Giants could make the playoffs. If they add him, the odds go from very small to simply small. If they can add a little more to the outfield, the odds likely begin to become halfway reasonable.
I liked Boly's comment about a possible bounce back from Melancon. Surely would be nice, wouldn't it? Just two years ago when the Giants signed Mark, he held the lowest ERA over the previous four seasons of any major league pitcher.
I'd like to show you guys an argument that offers encouragement for Mark's improving. Sadly though, I'm then going to take a closer look that illustrates the hope for improvement that I have brought up is based in great part on illusion.
So here goes with the "plausible" case for improvement:
Mark gave up a .302 batting average last season. That's horrendous. The average major league hitter hit something like .256 in 2018. Sometimes a high batting average is based in significant part on luck. Sure enough, Mark's Batting Average against on Balls In Play (BABIP) has been .374 and .365 the past two seasons, far higher than his .287 career BABIP allowed. Maybe bad luck is in play here.
It isn't as if he's lost velocity. In 2015 and 2016 he threw 91.5 and 91.8 mph. With the Giants he's thrown 92.2 and 91.5 mph. Slightly faster, if anything.
So one can make an argument based on what we've seen here that Mark has pitched in some bad luck, and significant improvement should follow.
Except that there are reasons so many balls fell in.
Based on the launch angles and exit velocities Melancon allowed last season, Baseball Savant says that his expected batting average against was .303, validating the .302 he allowed as being real. Worse, while Mark's .409 slugging percentage allowed wasn't very good, Baseball Savant says his expected SLG allowed was a horrendous .457. If anything, Mark appears to have pitched WORSE than his numbers indicated.
Sure enough, Mark allowed 26% line drives last season, well up from his 21% career rate. Worse, he allowed 43% hard-hit balls, way up from his fine 26% career mark. He built his reputation on soft contact, and suddenly last season hitters were truly bombing him.
His swinging strike rate has also fallen, and he struck out just 18% of batters in 2018 compared to 22% over his career. Batters swung at fewer bad pitches, and he threw fewer pitches across the plate, so his walk rate spurted by over a third.
Perhaps all these bad things happened because Mark's arm wasn't sound. Maybe it will become sound again, and all will be (literally) well. But Mark didn't put up a WHIP over 1.50 last season because of bad luck. He earned it.
His bounce back is certainly a possibility. But two years into arm problems, he didn't show much last season to give us particular hope. He's throwning as hard, but his location doesn't seem to be as good, and hitters aren't being fooled.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 12, 2019 13:43:50 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 12, 2019 13:45:19 GMT -5
Belt 1B....Concussion prone..Can't be counted on
Rog -- Brandon's potential bounce back is one of the biggest keys to the 2019 season. When he's healthy and hitting, his defense makes him a very good player.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 12, 2019 13:47:17 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 12, 2019 13:49:15 GMT -5
Harper RF......Wil never happe, but even if it did, will be walked 3 times a game, with this crappy lineup Rog -- With a right-hander on the mound, why would a team be incentivized to pitch to Bryce? Bouncebacks from Posey, Longoria and Crawford plus a pleasant surprise from Mac Williamson could turn this to the Giants' advantage. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5076/on-harper?page=1#ixzz5fLOu9tSr |
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 12, 2019 13:50:09 GMT -5
Oops, it was Mark I was quoting, not Mordy.
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