sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 10:43:09 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Mar 21, 2018 10:43:09 GMT -5
Good pitchers don't "find ways to win"...they give their teams a chance to win every start, or darn near. As I pointed out before, there is a dearth of good pitching currently. Jeff had a down year, like most of the team, but he did eat up innings and over the entirety of the schedule, that makes a big difference.
Alex Pavlovic says that if the Giants get 600 IP out of the top 3, that should take them back to playoff contention and I agree.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 12:15:56 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 21, 2018 12:15:56 GMT -5
I thought that if they stayed healthy, last year's Giants rotation might throw the surprising total of 1000 innings. In 2016, the five pitchers combined for 1028 frames.
Health is one of the things Alex is implying, and no question that will be paramount. But the quality of the 600 innings the Big 3 pitch will have something to do with things as well. If they average the 4.09 unweighted ERA they pitched in 2017, the 600 innings likely won't help as much as needed. It seems reasonable, of course, to assume clear improvement.
Their unweighted ERA in 216 was 3.11, or virtually a full run lower. It seems reasonable to split the difference at around 3.60, and a quarter run lower than that wouldn't be an extreme hope. Of course, it could go the other way, and they could wind up with a combined 4.50 ERA.
3.50 or 3.60 seems a reasonable expectation. Fan Graphs projects them around 3.65 unweighted.
Fan Graphs projects the Giants to win the final Wild Card spot behind the Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers and Cardinals and one game ahead of the Mets, two above the Diamondbacks and three over the Rockies. We'd all take that in a heartbeat, right?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 12:21:35 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Mar 21, 2018 12:21:35 GMT -5
I expect both Bum and Cueto to be in the low 3s if not below 3.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 12:41:07 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 21, 2018 12:41:07 GMT -5
We've been through this before, but good pitchers will usually win a nice percentage of their decisions, and bad pitchers will usually win a poor percentage. But both depend on run support and to some extent defensive and bullpen help as well.
For the Giants, Kirk Rueter was an average pitcher who won a fine percentage of his games. People point out how he was a great competitor (which was true) who would find a way to win (which was far less the case). I'm not quite sure what they would say about Matt Cain, who was clearly a better pitcher than Kirk, but didn't even finish at .500. I guess they would say that he didn't get good run support, which was indeed the case. He also didn't seem to have great luck. He often pitched well above his record.
Regarding Rueter, he went an amazing 15-10 in 1999 despite a 5.41 ERA. In 2004 he went 9-12 with a 4.73 ERA. He pitched two thirds of a run better in 2004 than in 1999, yet his winning percentage dropped by 171 points. We already know why, right? Yep, his run support fell by a run and a third in 2004, or twice as much as his ERA dropped.
No question Kirk was marvelously competitive. But he won four out of every seven decisions despite being an average pitcher because he received tremendous run support. Let's give him credit for pitching quickly and being a great teammate, perhaps putting his teammates in a better frame of mind to score runs. But let's realize that he won as often as he did because his run support was exceptional.
Matt didn't have that same run support, so despite being a clearly better pitcher, Matt's winnning percentage was over 100 points lower than Kirk's.
As an aside, the feeling is that Kirk's defenders helped him out more because he pitched quickly and kept them on their toes. That may be true, and this isn't close to a complete measure, but more than 9% of the runs he yielded were unearned, over 50% higher than Matt, whose runs allowed were less than 6% unearned.
I guess my point would be to take to heart the things we hear or read, but check them out to see whether or not we find evidence that they are true. Sometimes things that are taken for granted aren't truly supported by the facts.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 13:16:00 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 21, 2018 13:16:00 GMT -5
If we define "giving your team a chance to win" as a quality start, pitchers can be good with a little as a 60% success rate.
I took a look at Madison Bumgarner's 2016 season as an example. Along with 2015, I feel it is the best season of his career. He went 15-9. His quality start rate was just under 75%, and the Giants went 20-14 in his 34 starts.
When Kirk Rueter went 15-10 in 1999 (and the Giants went 21-12 in his starts), just under half his starts were quality starts. And when he was bad, he was pretty darn bad. Still, he went 15-10 because ...
We weren't very happy with Jeff Samardzija last season, yet 62% of his starts were quality starts. It could be argued that Jeff gave the Giants a chance to win four more times last season than Kirk gave them in 1999, even though Jeff had one fewer start. And yet Jeff went only 8-12 last season compared to Kirk's 15-10 in 1999, even though Jeff's ERA was a run lower.
Of course, Kirk also had more than two runs additional run support.
You know, there has been a lot of criticism here of Jeff's 2017 season, but he did a good job of putting the Giants in position to win. If he had been pitching for the 1999 Giants, he might have been a hero.
There are a lot of ways we can look at Jeff's 2017 season, Boagie, and realize it was better than his pure ERA indicated. You scoffed, by the way, at the thought that as a fly ball pitcher, Jeff may have had some bad luck last season. Doesn't your opinion conflict with your opinion that Denard Span was the worst center fielder you had ever seen?
When hitters didn't hit a ball that reached an outfielder or went over the fence against Jeff last season they hit -- get this -- .043. But when they hit the ball where it was over the fence or wound up being fielded first by an outfielder, they hit .549 against him.
Last season batters hit .233 against Jeff of fly balls. That's far higher than the .197 they have hit against him over his career. Pooh-pooh it or not, it is quite possible the Giants' outfield defense hurt Jeff last season.
I'm not trying to say Jeff had a great season. He yielded too many home runs and didn't pitch well enough with runners on base and in scoring position for that to be the case. But he wasn't nearly as bad as you paint him to be.
And Baseball-Reference calculated him to be worth two and a half more wins than the average replacement level pitcher you say could take his place.
Almost everywhere we look we find evidence that Jeff was better than his ERA indicated. And even then, only 42 qualifying pitcher posted an ERA lower than he.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 13:20:55 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 21, 2018 13:20:55 GMT -5
I think Madison Bumgarner has a wonderful shot at posting a sub-three ERA this season. This spring he has been striking out batters like never before, greatly reducing fears that his arm would never be the same after his mountain bike injury.
Johnny Cueto brings a lot more risk. I have pointed out many times that from 2011 through 2016 one could argue that he trailed only Clayton Kershaw among starting pitchers. But last season was an eye opener.
Add to that Johnny's 4.76 ERA after being traded to the Royals in 2015 and his 5.40 playoff ERA that season, and we can see that Johnny's excellent 2016 campaign has been surrounded by a fair amount of failure.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 13:28:08 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 21, 2018 13:28:08 GMT -5
Incidentally, I was a little disappointed in Madison's reaction regarding what it meant to his teammates. Certainly he wasn't entirely to blame for their horrible season, and he did say that the mountain bike incident wasn't the smartest thing he had done in his life. But where was the apology to his teammates for his irresponsibility to the team, accidental as it was?
We talk about Madison's strength of character, but he didn't show it in what was probably the biggest mistake of his life. I'm not saying it mattered. I'm simply saying that I was disappointed in Matt as a man.
When Branch Rickey signed Jackie Robinson, he told Jackie he would have to control his anger despite the injustices he would suffer. Jackie replied with the question that shouldn't he have the courage to retaliate? Rickey replied that he needed to have the courage NOT to retaliate.
Madison should have had the courage to make a full apology to his teammates. Perhaps behind closed doors he did. I hope so.
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 13:42:05 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Mar 21, 2018 13:42:05 GMT -5
That's the same question I asked last year, Rog, and I never, ever heard/read a satisfactory response.
I agree with you.
His actions were beyond irresponsible; IMHO, they were selfish and shameful.
I'm hoping he apologized in private, because he OWED his teammates that.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 13:59:00 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Mar 21, 2018 13:59:00 GMT -5
Certainly he wasn't entirely to blame for their horrible season, and he did say that the mountain bike incident wasn't the smartest thing he had done in his life. But where was the apology to his teammates for his irresponsibility to the team, accidental as it was?
Dood - I'd be willing to bet a full year's salary that Bum DID apologize to his teammates in private but very sincerely.
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Jeffy
Mar 21, 2018 14:54:23 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Mar 21, 2018 14:54:23 GMT -5
I am inclined to agree with you, Randy.
Bum has ALWAYS been a stand up guy; a TEAM oriented guy.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 6:16:26 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 22, 2018 6:16:26 GMT -5
Madison should also have apologized to Giants fans. One factor that is frustrating is that he was still being paid millions even though he couldn't work due to a situation that was originally under his control.
One thing about Madison though: He has never held the Giants up for money. He signed a sweetheart contract early, which frankly is good insurance for the player and good cost control for the club. Sure, the team is going to make the occasional mistake, but it's a lot better to make it at a reasonable price than at a huge free agency price.
I'm hoping Madison signs another reasonable contract this time.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 9:24:35 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Mar 22, 2018 9:24:35 GMT -5
That is pure crap. If he had lied about it or tried to cover it up like Kent did or if he had teammates try to cover for him then he would have owed the public an explanation and apology. Otherwise he owes only his teammates and coaches something. Let's not forget, this is a guy who got paid WELL below his worth for many years and not once did he try to hold out of training camp in a greedy effort to adjust his contract. Only an insensitive moron would expect a public bloodletting from Madison who has ALWAYS given his all on the field.
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 10:22:11 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Islandboagie on Mar 22, 2018 10:22:11 GMT -5
I agree with Randy. I'll even go one step further, I don't think he really owes anyone an apology. Before you rip me to shreds, let me explain.
#1, Bumgarner is not signed to a lucrative contract, which probably means his contract didn't include terms about him not riding dirt bikes.
#2, did his teammates and management know about him riding dirt bikes? I'd guess they did and didn't say anything about it.
#4, as far as the fans go, they cheered when he trotted around AT&T park on a horse with the championship banner. Many get thrown off horses, as they can be even more unpredictable than dirt bikes, especially with 40 thousand fans cheering. Not to mention, the organization gave the ok for that event.
#5, the fans also love it when Bumgarner challenges batters to a fight. You can get injured in a fight, although in that matchup it's more likely the batter gets injured..either way, the fans love it.
#6, many fans want Bumgarner to be allowed to compete in the homerun derby. Swinging hard like that, continuously can result in an injury, especially for a pitcher.
My point is, everyone loves Bumgarner and his redneck personality...that is, until he gets hurt doing something redneck related. Then all of a sudden he needs to drop to his knees before us begging for forgiveness? Nope, not me. He doesn't owe me an apology. I know who he is, I know the risks involved with someone who likes to get dirty.
The organization and his teammates know who he is too, and they allow him to be himself, in fact they encourage it. I find it very hard to believe nobody knew he was riding dirt bikes, in fact, maybe some teammates were with him riding dirt bikes too.
I'm sure he talked to the team, but I seriously doubt any apology was demanded by his teammates or the organization. He was just being the character they all embraced from day one.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 12:09:33 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 22, 2018 12:09:33 GMT -5
Otherwise he owes only his teammates and coaches something. Rog -- Indeed, let's give him credit for as far as we know, never rejecting responsiblity. Without them he wouldn't be making the millions he's making. They are fans of him and of the Giants. He hurt the Giants' performance and in doing so indirectly hurt the fans. Of course he didn't have to apologize to them, but by doing so he would have been honest about the situation. He also owed the Giants a huge apology. For a fair amount of time they paid him millions for nothing other than to recuperate for an injury that nothing to do with baseball. He may have apologized to the owners and to management and players. I certainly hope he did, although I haven't seen any references to it. On the other hand, I've never seen any references that he DIDN'T apologize. But we know he didn't apologize to the fans and it is we, after all, who indirectly pay his salary. Without the fans, he'd likely be one heck of a semi-pro pitcher back in North Carolina. By the way, I believe he hit a walkoff home run to win the North Carolina High School Baseball Championship. Does anyone know for sure? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4342/jeffy?page=3#ixzz5AUvn6obv
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 12:46:10 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 22, 2018 12:46:10 GMT -5
I just confirmed it. A two-run walkoff homer concluded his career and won the State Chamionship for South Caldwell High School.
His high school coach tells a couple of stories about Madison.
On Christmas Day Madison called the coach and wished him a Merry Christmas. But the real purpose of the call was to see if the coach would come down to the high school so Madison could lift weights.
As a senior Madison had the balls to pop the catcher's mitt in the bullpen of a high-scoring game with two outs and the bases loaded. South Caldwell needed one more out. The coach hadn't asked him to warm up, but Madison implored the coach to let him come in and get the last out.
Here is a very prescient comment from the coach two days before the final game of the 2014 World Series, compliments of MaxPreps:
Or the time as a senior when in an elimination playoff series with Alexander Central, Bumgarner had pitched a shutout in the first game on a Tuesday night, but in a high-scoring Friday game Parham had chewed up most of his pitchers. The bases were loaded and the Spartans were holding a one-run lead:
"All of a sudden, I hear the mitt popping in the bullpen and it's Madison throwing. I go down to ask what's going on and he says, ‘Coach, I can get the last out. I feel good. Coach I can do it.'
"I think about it a few seconds, I go out to the mound and bring Madison in. Three pitches and it was done."
Parham said he would be surprised if Bumgarner doesn't volunteer his services late if the Giants are forced to a Game 7.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 12:50:15 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 22, 2018 12:50:15 GMT -5
Perhaps players would be a bit more humble if they remembered that ultimately it is we fans who pay their salaries.
If the public hadn't bought the cars, General Motors would still be a private.
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 12:53:01 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 22, 2018 12:53:01 GMT -5
Bumgarner is not signed to a lucrative contract, which probably means his contract didn't include terms about him not riding dirt bikes. Rog -- I would guess that such a clause would be a normal part of a MLB contract. That said, I don't recall the clause being enforced if it does exist. My guess is that Jeff Kent was so evasive because he worried that he would lose pay. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4342/jeffy?page=3#ixzz5AV8n2P6x
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rog
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Jeffy
Mar 22, 2018 12:55:04 GMT -5
Post by rog on Mar 22, 2018 12:55:04 GMT -5
everyone loves Bumgarner and his redneck personality..
Rog -- I know at least one person who loves Madison, but not his redneck personality.
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