rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 10:37:24 GMT -5
A fair number of closers are former "failed" starters as well.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 10:41:48 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:12:07 GMT -5
Removing seasons from a player's career might be considered a little cherry picking when discussing a player's full career, but let's remove those 1997 and 1999 seasons as you mentioned. I also removed his 1993 rookie season, when he hadn't yet become a closer and posted a 7.23 ERA. In other words, I took out the worst three of his 10 seasons.
The result doesn't change much. Robb now has 242 saves, one hold and 38 blown saves. That's an 86.5% success rate. Better than the 85% rate when all seasons are included, but still representing more than 50% more blown saves than guys like Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, the elite closers.
Let's look at Robb's history. He was mostly a starter in the minors, but in his rookie season of 1993, 20 of his 24 major league appearances were in relief. He had no saves.
In 1994 he began the season as a set up man or earlier and got one hold. A quarter of the way through the season, he was promoted to closer, and over the remainder of the season, he flourished, garnering 15 saves without a single blown save. But while his saves total grew in future seasons, he never again blew fewer than five saves, either.
He never put together a season in which his save percentage reached 90%. We've got Jansen and Kimbrel closing at 92% over their full careers, and Robb never once reached even 90%.
I took out the two seasons you mentioned that I shouldn't have included, Boly. Robb's success rate still wasn't what we would expect from a top closer.
This is an exception to the rule, but in 2016 Zach Britton saved 52 games without blowing even one save. Robb's highest saves total was in 2001 when he saved 45 games. He blew seven saves. Britton's 2016 season was record-setting. But if we compare it to Robb's 45 save season, we find a magic number of 7. Britton saved 7 more games and blew 7 fewer saves.
I realize you said you were done with this discussion, Boly. But please not that even after I take out the two bad seasons you mentioned, Robb's record still isn't very efficient. I allowed you to essentially cherry pick, and still Robb doesn't fare well in save efficiency. Even if I cherry pick his best saves season for you, he still doesn't reach 90%.
Robb was quite good. He simply wasn't as good as we thought, at least not compared to today's top closers.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:13:35 GMT -5
Incidentally, in 2016 Britton was the ultimate "Steady Eddie" closer in that he was perfect in save opportunities.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:29:21 GMT -5
Excellent comments on Nen and Wilson, Boagie -- especially mentioning that his career came in the steroid era. That does change things and should put him on a higher level.
He probably was never the best though, in part because of Mariano Rivera. But let's look at his four 40-save seasons and see how he compared to the most efficient closer in each season.
1998 -- Robb 40 saves, 5 blown saves Trevor Hoffman 54 saves, 1 blown save
2000 -- Robb 41 saves, 5 blown saves Antonio Alfonseca 45 saves, 4 blown saves
2001 -- Robb 45 saves, 7 blown saves Trevor Hoffman 43 saves, 3 blown saves
Armando Benitez 43 saves, 3 blown saves
2002 -- Robb 43 saves, 8 blown saves John Smoltz 55 saves, 4 blown saves
Robb was good, very good. He just wasn't as good as we remember him. We'd forgotten how many saves he blew.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:31:04 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:32:36 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:35:05 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:41:53 GMT -5
We were talking about Tommy John surgery. How about some Dekoda Watson and Bob Watson references?
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:43:57 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:45:54 GMT -5
We talked about the necessity for closer (and set up men) to have a short memory. What we mean, of course, is that pitchers need to put the negative effects of a bad game behind them. The more they can remember from their preparation -- and what they learned from the bad game itself -- the better prepared they are.
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 11:51:12 GMT -5
I still wouldn't say the Giants have a great bullpen (too many questions remain), but they certainly have more depth now. The Giants signed Watson for a very reasonable price, and I hope the improvements he made late last season continue to bear fruit in 2018. By the way, we've talking about the difficulty of the long-term contract, in that players often don't come close to being worth their pay in the later years. The Giants, who have been quite creative this winter, used a LONGER contract effectively here, extending Watson to three seasons (the last of which is at Tony's option) in order to reduce the average per season contract amount in order to fit it in under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. I notice, Randy, that since we talked about the Competitive Balance Tax, you haven't mentioned the salary cap, the luxury tax or even the Competitive Balance Tax.  |
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Feb 18, 2018 11:56:39 GMT -5
So you're going to de-grade, think less of, Robb Nen based upon his career numbers?
Seriously, roger?
Rog -- Well, yeah. Would you rather I cherry pick?
Dood - I think the point to be made here is that it was only starting in 2001 that Mr Nen's numbers began to degrade...2001, as I recall, is when his arm was beginning to fall off
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rog
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Post by rog on Feb 18, 2018 19:49:28 GMT -5
Rog -- I thought his arm troubles began in 2002, but let's assume they did indeed begin in 2001. Taking out your two seasons as well as Boly's two, Nen is left with 150 saves, one hold and 23 blown saves. That's an 87% success rate, which is good but certainly not great. We've handpicked Robb's five best seasons, and we still can't get him up to the 90% success rate.
No question Robb was good, and he certainly piled up a nice save total, one which would have been much higher if he hadn't thrown his arm out so the Giants could go to the 2002 World Series, costing him the balance of his career. But he wasn't very efficient. In addition to landing a lot of saves, he also blew his fair share.
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