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Post by Rog on Mar 29, 2017 1:12:10 GMT -5
Grant Brisbee Guest
Rog -- We all realize that Grant Brisbee, founder and still active leader of the McCovey Chronicle, a guest on the MLB Network, and a national columnist for Sports Illustrated, knows more baseball than all the rest of put together, don't we?
I hope we read what he was so nice as to link for us. If that doesn't end this ridiculousness about Brandon Belt, well, we aren't capable of rational discussion.
To have Grant read and contribute to our board is something close to having say Jon Miller visit us and contribute. You want someone who knows a bit about the Giants? Grant Brisbee is on the (very) short list of those who know the most.
I have mentioned that we should visit The McCovey Chronicles more often. (I'm guilty too.) But only if we want cleverly written but factual and insightful discussion of the Giants. Otherwise, I would recommend simply staying away from the site.
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Post by Rog on Mar 29, 2017 1:33:23 GMT -5
No offense, Rog, but this means absolutely nothing to me. Rog -- I realize I didn't do a very good job of understanding this. But win probability added is a HUGE concept. Let me give you an example. Let's take the game Conor Gillaspie homered off Aroldis Chapman. Better days, shall we say. Here were the five plays in that game that did the most to affect win probability: . Not surprisingly, the biggest play was Conor's two-run triple off Chapman. He added 50% to the Giants' probabilty of winning. They had stood with a 41% chance entering his at bat, and after the triple, that leaped to 91%. . The second biggest play was Kris Bryant's home run against Sergio Romo in the top of the ninth. The Giants' chances of winning dropped from 85% before the home run to 50% after it. That was a probability added (for the Cubs) of 35%. . Then came Jake Arrieta's three-run homer against Madison Bumgarner. The Giants had a 51% chance of winning prior to the home run,and only a 24% shot after it. That was a 27% swing (of the bat) by Arrieta. . Ty Blach's inducement of Davis Ross to ground into a double play to end the top of the 13th inning took the Giants from a 42% chance of winning to a 64% shot. That was 22% of probability added by Blach (and 22% probablity LOST by Ross). . Joe Panik's walk-off double to end the game by scoring the winning run from second base increased the Giants' chances of winning from 81% to -- you guessed it -- 100%. That was a 19% swing of the bat. There is irony here. It would be easy to say that Panik's walk-off was the biggest play of the game. But it turns out that the 19% it increased the Giants' chances of winning were only third behind Conor's 50% triple and Ty's 22% double play. Now, win probablity added isn't a perfect measure. A player has to be in the right position to contribute. But win probability added is the measure of how much a player takes advantage of the opportunities he is given. Not every hit can be a big one, but every hit increases his team's chances of winning, even if only by the tiniest bit. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3781/stepping?page=2#ixzz4ch13HfXB
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