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Post by Rog on Mar 1, 2017 12:35:52 GMT -5
Just when we thought we've said everything about Brandon Belt, here is his 2016 spray chart. Actually, two charts, one showing how long his balls were in the air and one that shows ground balls, bunts, line drives, bloopers, fly balls and home runs (most of which would be fly balls).
What do we learn from these charts?
. We learn that Brandon did indeed spray the ball to all fields.
. We learn that when Brandon hits a fly ball, it is usually to the left side of the diamond. Not surprisingly, he had a modest home run total for a power hitter, but lots of doubles and triples.
. When Brandon hits the ball on the ground, it is almost always to right field, either right down the line or to the normal hole between first and second bases.
. When he hits a line drive on the infield, the same thing is true. Otherwise, he hits slightly more to the left side.
. While this is pronounced, looking at Brandon's swing, we can predict it. We know he has a more perpendicular bat angle than most on balls toward the inside of the plate. These are the balls he is most likely to hit on the ground or on a line. If he does hit that pitch in the air, the bat angle makes it more likely to go to left. This is true of many if not most hitters.
. Playing him on defense is easy, with one exception. The infield over-shift is a must, with the first baseman hugging the line and the second baseman in the normal hole. The third baseman can also shift a lot, especially with two strikes. The left fielder plays straight away, while the center fielder shades left center. I would have the right fielder cheat right center, and play both the second baseman and especially the first baseman deep to cut off as many balls hit in the air to right field as possible. But some managers might choose to play a more straight up right field, especially when the Giants are on the road. The type of pitcher would also help dictate.
Brandon's spray chart clearly shows us why teams over-shift their infield against him but often shade him slightly to left in the outfield.
One other point on Brandon. The more I think about it, the more I realize that Belt simply isn't Randy's or Boly's type of player. There is no way one can rationally argue that he's a below-average player, and as far as we know, he's even well liked in the clubhouse.
Part of Randy's reasoning has to do with how much better Buster Posey has hit when he plays first base (although, surprisingly, in a small sample, he has hit worse as a DH than when playing first base and worst of all as a pinch hitter). This is a case though were there are co-variables, as we've discussed for years.
Brandon hits better when he plays first base, and he hits better when facing southpaws. When he plays first base, he faces a disproportionate number of lefties, and he faces more right-handers than usual when he catches. This is another case where the stats don't lie, but it is easy to misinterpret them.
Boly is more realistic, saying that he would love to play Buster at first base, but as has been repeated here often, Belt and Buster combine to hit better than Buster and another catcher. In addition, both Buster and Belt are very good defensively at their positions. Buster is OK at first base, but isn't nearly as good as Belt. Nick Hundley is OK behind the plate, but he doesn't compare to Buster there (or at the plate).
And finally, Brandon HAS adjusted at the plate. He made a major repositioning of his hands on the bat, and he has also gone more and more to left field. In fact, Brandon's combination of improvement has been very good. He hits to left more often, he hits more line drives, and he hits the ball hard more often. He has also cut down on his strikeouts. Brandon's average would be even higher if not for the over-shifts.
IMO he should bunt much more often and continue to try to hit more grounders to the left side. I don't know how much he has improved on the last point (or even if he has at all), but any improvement hasn't meant much.
Boagie, I understand why you say I am, essentially, so opinionated. But two things:
. I change my mind more than most here.
. As you can see from the above, it's pretty well thought out and heavily backed by verifiable facts. Are there things I would change about Brandon? Absolutely. But he's still a good to very good player. No reasonable argument can be made that he is below average, and almost no one considers him to be so.
If every Giants player were as good as Belt, the Giants would likely make the playoffs every season. The last is an opinion, but it too can be supported -- although not proven -- by facts.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 1, 2017 12:50:40 GMT -5
Roger-though I appreciate the research you've done... and it appears to be a lot... please understand that no matter what numbers you present, it's not going to change my opinion of Belt, and I don't think it'll change Randy's either.
Sorry.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 1, 2017 15:01:51 GMT -5
Rog, since you agreed to stop talking about Belt you've started two new posts on the same exact topic. Does your word really mean anything at this point?
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Post by Rog on Mar 1, 2017 15:27:19 GMT -5
That is the type of thing that galls me here. If you guys want to say that Brandon Belt isn't your type of player and give your reasons, that's one thing. But to say that Brandon isn't a good player and that he doesn't adjust right in the face of the facts, that's illogical.
Brandon Belt isn't your type of player? No problem. Only you guys would know that for sure. But to say he's a bad player, that he doesn't adjust and that he stubbornly doesn't try to go to left field isn't right.
That he's a bad player is an opinion, not a fact. But it isn't supported by a fact. How can a player who is better than average both offensively and defensively be a below-average player simply because he makes mistakes that don't reduce his level of play to below average on either side of the ball?
As for his alleged inability to adjust and his stubbornly not hitting the ball to left field, those just aren't factual. We're not talking opinion on that one; we're talking facts. We've seen how he changed his hand position, and both his spray charts and his percentages show that he is in fact going to left field a decent percentage of the time.
By the way, thanks for the compliment on doing my research. The various percentages and averages I have posted on Belt were mostly reserch, but the spray charts were simply something I came across as I continue to read about baseball, the Giants, and other sports.
You know how Don seems biased against Buster Posey? That's how it seems some of the board is with regard to Belt. Brandon was recently picked as the #9 or #10 first baseman in Giants history, both NY and SF. That's just someone's opinion, of course (although it appears to have been well researched). But the fact that Brandon is being considered in that regard seems a strong illustration that he's not a bad player. That Brandon was picked #8 among all present first basemen by the MLB Network is a good illustration that he's not a bad player.
Sure, Brandon could be better. He's not an elite or even excellent first baseman. But there seems little way one could consider him to be a bad first baseman. The facts simply don't support it.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 1, 2017 16:30:14 GMT -5
Rog, you are correct; some of us are biased against Belt, and the reasons vary.
I'm not trying to legitimize my position at all.
The facts are the facts.
He's just not the kind of player whom I can judge fairly by only looking at numbers, and I've explained my rationale.
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 1, 2017 19:26:48 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Mar 1, 2017 20:13:35 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 1, 2017 21:32:21 GMT -5
He's not my kind of player because he's a pussy. He has the talent to be GREAT, but he's satisfied being mediocre. PLUS he takes mental breaks in the middle of a play and begs out of the game when he gets a little boo boo. I find him irksome.
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Post by Rog on Mar 1, 2017 21:42:15 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Mar 1, 2017 21:50:31 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 1, 2017 21:57:57 GMT -5
that's not a good thing IMO. But Ive seen him take himself out of games several times when there was nothing seriously injured. If I was a big leaguer, the only way you'd get me out of a game would be if a DL stint was going to be unavoidable
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Post by Rog on Mar 1, 2017 22:21:55 GMT -5
There are times when leaving a game are helpful to your team in two ways:
. You avoid further injury.
. You don't weaken the team by being less effective than the player who could have replaced you.
I have no idea why Brandon didn't continue to play after suffering a concussion. His head isn't worth anything anyway.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 1, 2017 23:02:48 GMT -5
Not talking about concussions...talking about when he slides hard into a base, walks with no limp straight to the dugout and feels well enough to play the next day. If you get taken out of a game, you'd better miss at least 4 or 5 games recovering. If not, you're a pussy.
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Post by Rog on Mar 2, 2017 12:08:56 GMT -5
Randy, if Belt is a pussy, you're a dog. Then again, I don't think Belt is a pussy. Why in the world would you use such demeaning language? Demeaning not only to Brandon.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 2, 2017 16:47:41 GMT -5
Rog: You're getting hung up in Randy's vernacular.
What he's saying is that he's sick and tired of Brandon whining about every little owie, and taking himself out of the line up when he should still be playing.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 2, 2017 21:32:01 GMT -5
I think it's fair to say you would have to drag either Boly or me off the field to get us out of a game. Belt seems to welcome it
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Post by Rog on Mar 2, 2017 21:53:28 GMT -5
I think it's fair to say you would have to drag either Boly or me off the field to get us out of a game. Rog -- Me too when I was younger. The first time I popped my knee out of joint I would have gone back into the basketball game except that I was already playing as an undersized forward and could no longer jump. That would have been dumb on my part, but I would have done it if I hadn't realized I would be hurting my team. If one would have to drag you or Boly off the field to get you out of a game, there would almost certainly be a time when you would hurt your team. One thing you seem to be ignoring here also is that different people have different pain thresholds. I think mine is fairly high, but since I don't feel anyone else's pain, I may simply be fooling myself. As for Belt's welcoming coming out of the game, I'm not sure that is true. One thing you don't know is what he's thinking. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3755/when-said#ixzz4aE9g3Pu1
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 3, 2017 11:19:18 GMT -5
They would have had to drag me off the field, too, Randy.
I played, injured on not.
A large number of players do.
Brandon... who knows.
Doesn't seem so.
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 3, 2017 15:53:07 GMT -5
They would have had to drag me off the field, too, Randy. I played, injured on not. A large number of players do. Rog -- So given that one doesn't perform as well when he's injured, and his risk of further injury is greater, how often did you play where you actually hurt your team or increased its risk? Hey, I was crazy too. I probably did so more often than I should have. But I think the question is a legitimate one. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3755/when-said#ixzz4aIXy1bdR
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 3, 2017 18:39:57 GMT -5
Then let the manager tell him to sit when he has a slight oweee.
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 3, 2017 19:47:12 GMT -5
Then let the manager tell him to sit when he has a slight oweee. Rog -- If the player is honest, he is the one who best knows when he should come out. A close second would be the trainer. The manager would seem to be at the bottom of the decision chain. Again, I've made the "mistake" myself, and based on what you've said, you and Randy almost certainly have too. In fact, I'll bet that pretty much everyone here has done so at least once. But just as you guys are trying to point out that a player can come out too often (easily), he can also come out too much. He and the trainer are in the best position to make the call. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3755/when-said#ixzz4aJUyaNEk
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Post by Rog on Mar 3, 2017 23:18:08 GMT -5
If I were Jason Heyward, I'd re-tool my swing. If I were Pablo Sandoval, I would strongly consider hitting lefty (Pablo's natural hand) against southpaws. But if I were Brandon Belt, I would limit my changes primarily to hitting the ball to left field more (hopefully on the ground or via line drive), but down the third base line more, and see if I could get more loft on balls I pull.
But I wouldn't re-tool my swing like Heyward or make a major change like Sandoval. The difference is that Belt is doing well and is still improving, while Heyward has declined season after season, and Pablo hasn't been able to hit southpaws for a number of years now.
By the way, I'm hoping Pablo can bounce back. But the Red Sox have options if he is unable to do so. Perhaps the Giants too are beginning to build more depth. Bruce Bochy has been saying the cuts will be tough, and it's looking more and more that way.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 4, 2017 10:39:42 GMT -5
I know Pablo is one of Randy's favorites, and I used to be a fan of his, too.
But he lied at the parade.
He lied to his teammates.
He lied to his fans.
Had he just left for the money, I'd not like it, but I'd understand.
I'd call him a greedy slob, just like the large majority of professional athletes, but I'd reluctantly understand.
But he didn't.
He boldly faced the cameras, and lied to all of his.
To me, what he did was no different than had he spit in each of our faces.
If he repented, I could forgive him for that.
But he hasn't.
And like they say of elephants, I have a long, (and for me, based upon that lack of repentance) unforgiving memory
So I don't care what he does, and because he's a man with no integrity, I hope he falls flat on his face.
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 4, 2017 11:07:41 GMT -5
I went back and looked at Belt's hit to left (actually center, but well to the left-field side of second base). I've seen Brandon do that quite a few times before. Last season he hit 33 line drives to the left side of second base. It's just that he hit only 13 ground balls that way.
Brandon hit .341 to left field, and .366 to center. He did his best hitting to right field, as do most lefty hitters, despite the over-shift batting .421 with a .794 slugging percentage. To hit best to a hitter's pull field is natural, since he generally hits the ball harder there.
Here's something to consider. Brandon hit the majority of his balls in the air to the left of second base. What would benefit him would be if he could hit the ball harder that way. Of course, as mentioned, batters almost always hit the ball harder to their pull side. When we see tape measure home runs, they are almost always to the pull side of second base.
So Belt would benefit from hitting more ground balls to the left side of second base and hitting balls in the air that way higher and harder. Mechanically, how would he best accomplish that? When he goes to the left side, he doesn't get as much body into the swing.
He would also benefit from hitting more balls in the air to the right side, avoiding the infield over-shift more often. It would seem he should hit more fly balls in just about every direction (maybe not up the middle, where the parks are deepest). But Brandon his just .161 on fly balls last season, so unless he hits the ball with a higher exit velocity and a higher angle, it doesn't seem that would help much either.
What keeps Brandon's average at an above-average level despite his hitting so poorly on fly balls and striking out so much is that he hits a high percentage of line drives. Despite the over-shift, his .259 batting average on ground balls is good, as well. It appears that Brandon hits the ball hardest when he keeps it down -- a line drive or a ground ball.
At this point in his career, Brandon isn't likely to completely re-tool his swing. He's already made a dramatic change in how he holds the bat. What less drastic mechanical adjustments should Brandon make so he can hit more ground balls to the left side, hit more line drives and fly balls to right, and hit the fly balls higher and harder?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 4, 2017 12:16:03 GMT -5
I wouldn't say Pablo lied. I think he just changed his mind. It happens a lot. He got swept up in the World Series celebration and hadn't thought it all through when he said some things. Then when the early negotiations began, I'll bet Sabean said some less than flattering things that may have turned Pablo off. Maybe he felt hurt and became more open to moving away from SF. There's a lot we don't know about what was said in those private meetings.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 4, 2017 16:30:32 GMT -5
That's all true, Randy, we don't know what on.
But my comments are based upon what PABLO said DURING the parade when he and the rest of the Giants were sitting behind the podium.
boly
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Post by Rog on Mar 4, 2017 22:01:12 GMT -5
Boly makes a very good point here, but I myself still root for Pablo. It's tough for me NOT to root for an ex-Giant.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 5, 2017 1:34:54 GMT -5
I'm just saying it's one thing to lie intentionally...it's a far different thing to speak foolishly in the heat of a celebration without thinking far enough ahead
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 5, 2017 11:39:44 GMT -5
Randy's right; we don't know what went on in Pablo's meetings.
But based upon what he's said afterward... It is my contention that Pablo KNEW he wasn't likely to return. He just didn't want to tick anyone one off.
I also contend it was a calculated lie.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 5, 2017 12:34:52 GMT -5
I don't KNOW for certain that it was calculated, so I'm going to choose not to condemn a man when I'm not sure. Pablo does lots of foolish and silly things and that was part of his charm as a Giant. I myself have told co-workers that I was going to stay only to later get a better offer that I couldn't refuse. People do change their minds. PLUS, I don't really see that Pablo's statements gained him any sort of negotiating advantage.
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