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Post by Rog on Nov 29, 2016 16:34:14 GMT -5
I think it's clear that the Giants' three best hitters are Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt. How about we compare their career numbers?
Overall: Posey .307/.373/.476/.848 Pence .284/.339/.470/.809 Belt .272/.359/.460/.818
Posey is easily the best hitter for average and has reached base the most. Belt has hit for the most power (in terms of bases per hit). Pence has reached base the least.
RISP: Posey .315/.406/.489/.895 Pence .297/.357/.487/.845 Belt .266/.365/.443/.808
Once again Posey hits for the best average and has easily reached base the most. He appears to be easily the most feared hitter. Once again Belt
has hit for the most power, although it is close between him and Pence. Overall, Pence has been better than Belt here.
Men on: Posey .324/.395/.510/.906 Pence .302/.356/.493/.859 Belt .289/.376/.476/.852
Posey stands out even more for average and again reaches base the most. Belt hits for the most power.
Late/Close: Posey .284/.372/.419/.791 Pence .278/.348/.447/.796 Belt .283/.369/.435/.803
Maybe a surprise, but this is very close overall. No advantage for Posey, who could arguably be the worst here. Batting averages very similar.
Pence doesn't get on base as often but hits for the best power. Posey hits for the least power. Buster likely faces power pitching the most here,
and this is another indication he may not be the Giants' best hitter against power pitching.
Hi leverage: Posey .326/.407/.491/.898 Pence .299/.351/.500/.852 Belt .290/.379/.454/.833
Posey is easily the best, except that Pence has the most power.
In summary: Overall, Posey has clearly been the Giants' best hitter. The only exception has been in late & close situations, where all three are close. Belt hits for the most power, but he compares least favorably with RISP. Pence doesn't get on base nearly as well as the other two. Perhaps the biggest surprise is how close the Giants Big Three are in late & close situations. We would much rather see Posey up in those situations ahead of either of the other two, but in reality it has been pretty close to a three-headed coin flip.
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 29, 2016 16:48:51 GMT -5
oh lovely...just what I wanted to see...more stats geekery.
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Post by Rog on Nov 29, 2016 16:59:34 GMT -5
All we seem to be seeing from you, Randy, is all kinds of negativity. How about some fresh ideas instead of simply trying to cut down what others are saying? It's easy to criticize and harder to come up with something constructive. You seem to be taking the easy way out.
If you don't want to pay attention to me, please heed what Mark suggested. Until you do, you're just a downer here, and I for one believe you can be a strong force. This is a play on words, not an attack on you, but consider being a force rather than a farce.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 29, 2016 20:56:02 GMT -5
Rog, I'll still take Pence.
He does toooooooooooooooooooo many things to help my team.
He can run, hit for power, hit for average, and an above average defender.
Plus there's the emotional side. Pence plays all 27 outs of every game, and when he's not IN the game, he's there with the same emotion pulling for his team.
Posey hit for average for a while, mostly in His MVP year.
A good hitter for sure, but he can't run and he clogs the bases.
Power... above average
Speed. Non existent.
He does things to help the team in the club house, no question.
But I'll still take Pence, and I wouldn't even give it a seconds thought.
Belt? He wouldn't even enter the conversation.
I'd take Crawford and Panik above Belt.
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 29, 2016 21:13:28 GMT -5
I don't think there is any question that Buster Posey is the Giants' best position player. When all is said and done, Buster will very likely be in the Hall of Fame. Barring significant improvement, none of the other position players will be.
Buster is one of the best defensive catchers as well as one of the best offensively. One might even argue that he is the best at both, particularly if one sees Buster's offensive downturn as the result of back and/or hand injuries.
With the possible exception of Brandon Crawford's defense, none of the other Giants' position players is considered the best offensively or defensively.
Hunter Pence appears to be a great clubhouse presence. If we include that in our evaluation, he seems second-best. Otherwise it's likely one of the two Brandon's, particularly at present. If Hunter is given extra points for his clubhouse presence, perhaps it would be fair if he lost some for his health issues the past two seasons.
Joe Panik is a fine player, although to be considered on the same level as the above, he needs to bounce back from a difficult 2016 season at the plate. I for one think he will do so.
Eduardo Nunez is likely next. He played well on both sides of the ball last season, and he is clearly the Giants' best threat to steal.
Aside from the void in left field, Denard Span is the weakest. As pointed out in another post, Denard is now a platoon player. Although his defense was a bit questionable, he did hit somewhat acceptably against right-handed pitching last season.
That's the way I see it. To some extent it depends on how one views the importance of things like playing well on both sides of the ball, clubhouse presence and health.
With the exception of the two left-most outfield positions, I'm happy with the Giants' lineup -- as long as everyone is healthy.
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 30, 2016 1:15:06 GMT -5
Randy is right, more stat geekery, but it's somewhat interesting stat gerkery, and an interesting topic.
Boly, I love Hunter Pence. He's a great guy, he's all hustle, he's delivered many times in clutch situations...but he's no Buster Posey.
Buster Posey is the MAIN reason the Giants have three World Series trophies. Guys like Buster Posey don't come around often.
All too often we forget the impact catchers have on the pitching staff, and the ability of calling games. Posey has done a remarkable job in this area. Name me another catcher who caught 3 different ace pitchers during 3 championship runs? Name me another catcher that caught 3 bullpens with the success that those bullpens had during the post-season?
If the criteria for the MVP award were taken literally, Posey should really have won it every year since 2010 (minus 2011 due to the injury.) What he does as a catcher is unparalleled by anyone else on the field.
I think it's easy to take things for granted when we see the human side of players, or when the east coast bias overlooks them. But if Posey were playing for the Yankees, Redsox, Cubs or Dodgers he'd be widely considered one of the greatest catchers to ever play the game.
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Post by klaiggeb on Nov 30, 2016 10:55:47 GMT -5
Buster is the main reason, Boagie?
Not sure I agree.
He was a pivotal piece for sure.
But I'll still take Hunter
boly
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2016 13:35:44 GMT -5
I don't think there is much question the four top everyday players are Posey, Pence and the two Brandon's. Panik could well join them, but he has put together only one good full season. So how about we take a look at the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for each player over the past five years, when all four players played full seasons? WAR incorporates all phases of the game. For 2012, I'll include Pence's time with the Phillies before the trade deadline. I'll use both the Baseball-Reference version of WAR and the Fan Graphs version. They are calculated slightly differently.
Per Baseball-Reference:
Posey 28
Crawford 18
Belt 16
Pence 11
Per Fan Graphs:
Posey 28
Crawford 17
Pence 15
Belt 14
These are respected, objective measures. They include on-field performance only, not clubhouse presence. About the only on-field thing I can possibly criticize is that fielding might be considered too heavily, which could lead to over-indicated measurements for Crawford and Posey.
Let's add the two WAR's together then make a possible adjustment for clubhouse presence:
Posey 56
Crawford 35
Belt 30
Pence 26
Now, if we make an adjustment for clubhouse presence, although this is clearly a guess:
Posey 58
Crawford 35
Pence 31`
Belt 28
And finally, an adjustment for defense being overrated in WAR:
Posey 53
Pence 33
Crawford 30
Belt 27
A note: Posey and Crawford have missed very few games over the five years, while Pence and Belt have missed many.
Almost no matter how we look at it, Posey is the clear winner, with Crawford, Pence and Belt being reasonably close. If we pick anyone besides Posey as the best, we're probably being overly influenced by his disappointing 2016 season at the plate. And that may have been influenced by his playing at less than 100%.
In summary: Buster Posey will very likely wind up in the Hall of Fame. Brandon Crawford, Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt are all good players, but they likely won't survive the first ballot. That should tell us what we need to know.
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2016 13:39:07 GMT -5
Boly, even if you somehow still feel that Hunter Pence is a better player than Buster Posey, Boagie's comment was that Buster was the biggest contributor to the three World Championships. Since Hunter didn't play for the Giants for the first one, what Boagie said is pretty much true by default.
More importantly, in detail, why do you think Hunter is better than Buster? I value your opinion, but I'm shocked on that one. That's why I want to try to understand in depth your thinking.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Nov 30, 2016 15:00:52 GMT -5
If you don't want to pay attention to me, please heed what Mark suggested. Until you do, you're just a downer here
Dood - wait, let me see if I understand here. You post all manner of Dodgers/Kershaw propaganda and I'M the downer?? Wow.
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2016 15:42:29 GMT -5
wait, let me see if I understand here. You post all manner of Dodgers/Kershaw propaganda and I'M the downer?? Wow. Rog -- Let's be honest here, Randy. If one takes what I post about the Giants and subtracts out everthing I say about the Dodgers -- positive or negative -- you don't post anything close to what I post about the Giants. In addition, most of the time you are asked to give us some kind of insight, you ignore it or skirt the issue. Add to that what Mark characterized as unprovoked attacks, and yes, I'd say you're the downer. But you can change that in an instant. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon#ixzz4RWiRpAVz |
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Post by donk33 on Nov 30, 2016 17:18:45 GMT -5
dk..wow, again we make a silk purse out of a pampered catcher.... Posey had one fairly good season in 2010 and the Giants finished 1st in their division and 2nd best record in the league...Posey had a .300 BA in the WS, but only 2 RBI's....in 2012 and 2014, the Giants got into the playoffs, as a wild card with the 4th and 5th best records in the league, despite good seasons from Posey...and the Giants won the WS and Posey hit .267 and .154....is this really a HOF guy???
When you are comparing guys on the team and trying to forecast their value for the coming season, I would think you would consider trends and not career figures....Posey had a terrible year last year for a HOF candidate and he piled up all his numbers in small bursts....plus he still gets lots of times off...
an aside...Posey is given too much credit for a high Caught stealing percentage ...if you remove the guys caught stealing by the pitcher, Posey's % career wise goes down to .272...this compares to .378 by Yadier Molina.... now you know why the Giants throw to the bases as much as they do to keep the runners close....
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2016 18:30:03 GMT -5
.is this really a HOF guy???
You are correct that Buster hasn't been very good in the playoffs, but yes, this is very likely a Hall of Fame player. Using fairly recent catchers who made the Hall, let's look at why:
Here is where Buster fits on the OPS list among recent Hall of Fame catchers:
Mike Piazza .922
Buster Posey .848
Yogi Berra .830
Johnny Bench .817
Carlton Fisk .797
Gary Carter .773
Buster fits in very nicely. Throw in his defense, and he's right on pace to be a Hall of Fame catcher.
The average Hall of Fame catcher (14 of them) has 52.7 WAR, 34.2 7-year peak WAR and a 43.4 JAWS rating. Buster has 33.5 WAR, 33.6 7-year peak WAR and a 33.5 JAWS rating. He's right on pace to be a Hall of Fame catcher.
Ask just about any baseball fan not named Kuritzky, and Buster is expected to be a Hall of Fame catcher.
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2016 18:31:20 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2016 18:35:53 GMT -5
Posey had a terrible year last year for a HOF candidate Rog -- Not so much. For instance, Buster's OPS last season was higher than Gary Carter's career OPS and within a point of Carlton Fisk. His OPS was higher than Johnny Bench's in six of Johnny's 15 seasons of 100 games or more. Throw in that Buster was considered to be the best defensive catcher last season, and terrible isn't the first word that comes to mind. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon?page=1#ixzz4RXPw79KI |
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Post by Rog on Nov 30, 2016 18:38:28 GMT -5
.if you remove the guys caught stealing by the pitcher, Posey's % career wise goes down to .272. Rog -- Which is above average. In addition, he hasn't always had pitchers who did a great job holding runners on (such as Tim Lincecum). Personally I didn't think his throwing was much above average until the past two seasons. Last season in particular he appeared to be very accurate as well as having a quick release and a strong throwing arm. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon?page=1#ixzz4RXR4ph1v |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 1, 2016 10:56:46 GMT -5
Rog-Boly, even if you somehow still feel that Hunter Pence is a better player than Buster Posey, Boagie's comment was that Buster was the biggest contributor to the three World Championships. Since Hunter didn't play for the Giants for the first one, what Boagie said is pretty much true by default.
More importantly, in detail, why do you think Hunter is better than Buster? I value your opinion, but I'm shocked on that one. That's why I want to try to understand in depth your thinking.
****boly says***
Rog, take careful note; I NEVER said Hunter was the better player. I SAID I'd take HIM over Posey in a heartbeat because he does MORE for my team.
You can point to all the numbers you like, but it's not going to change my mind.
Hunter and Posey's power are, arguably close, and Buster has hit for higher career average.
But what Hunter does that Posey CAN'T are as follows.
1-With his speed:
a-consistently get many more infield hits
b-consistently take the extra base
c-steal bases
2-His emotional leadership is so good and so high, I simply can't put a value on it. His leadership helps CREATE a chemistry that is unmatched on the Giant team.
3-He leads by example. Posey does too, but NOT in the manner I most desire; visible hustle on the field
There are more, but that's just a few to help you understand.
Now as an ex pitcher, one would think I'd argue for Posey since he's a catcher.
But that ability to run.... that sways the scales for me.
boly
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Post by donk33 on Dec 1, 2016 16:46:21 GMT -5
.if you remove the guys caught stealing by the pitcher, Posey's % career wise goes down to .272. Rog -- Which is above average. In addition, he hasn't always had pitchers who did a great job holding runners on (such as Tim Lincecum). Personally I didn't think his throwing was much above average until the past two seasons. Last season in particular he appeared to be very accurate as well as having a quick release and a strong throwing arm. dk...and how many games did he catch Tim?  ? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon?page=1#ixzz4RXR4ph1v |
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2016 11:27:39 GMT -5
how many games did he catch Tim? ? Rog -- 74. Glad you asked. Hector Sanchez caught Tim 180 fewer innings and gave up five more steals. Buster's stolen bases per inning while catching Tim were just a tick behind Bengie Molina. |
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Post by donk33 on Dec 2, 2016 13:54:57 GMT -5
how many games did he catch Tim? ? Rog -- 74. Glad you asked. Hector Sanchez caught Tim 180 fewer innings and gave up five more steals. Buster's stolen bases per inning while catching Tim were just a tick behind Bengie Molina. dk...for a #1 catcher to have skipped catching the #1/ 2 best pitcher is not a great sign.... |
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Post by donk33 on Dec 2, 2016 14:35:40 GMT -5
how many games did he catch Tim? ? Rog -- 74. Glad you asked. Hector Sanchez caught Tim 180 fewer innings and gave up five more steals. Buster's stolen bases per inning while catching Tim were just a tick behind Bengie Molina. dk...and let's compare Posey to other Giants ' catchers who caught Tim ...and let's use the more important numbers.... catcher Innings ERA OBP SLG OPS Bengie 622 2.75 .285 .315 .600 Buster 445.1 4.04 .318 ..391 .709 Hector 265.2 3.96 .309 . 371 .680 not too good for Buster....but I can't go into what Tim's condition was when he pitched to each catcher....just as it is entirely false to compare passed balls and wild pitches to a regular catcher compared to a guy that only caught in scattered games.... |
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2016 16:14:10 GMT -5
for a #1 catcher to have skipped catching the #1/ 2 best pitcher is not a great sign.... Rog -- I get what you're saying, but some pitchers, such as Jon Lester, have their own catchers. In the case of Tim and Buster, I think Buster is very analytical, while Tim is more of a feel guy. Thus, they didn't mix too well. Since catchers catch maybe 3/4th of the games, it's really not much of a problem for a pitcher to have his own catcher. Here's kind of a funny thing. 2011 was the season Tim began to go away from Buster as his catcher. It was also Tim's last good season. Buster caught him only a little over a quarter of the time. But Tim's ERA when Buster caught him was 1.55, while it was over twice as high (3.23) when he pitched to Chris Stewart, Eli Whiteside and Hector Sanchez. Essentially, Tim pitched about equally as well to Tim as he pitched to Hector. He did his best pitching to Bengie Molina and Chris, primarily because those two caught Tim only in his good years. If we look at Buster compared to all the other guys who caught him in his down seasons, it was pretty close, with Buster enjoying a small advantage. I think you're trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill, Don. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon#ixzz4RiSg8eoG |
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2016 16:20:06 GMT -5
but I can't go into what Tim's condition was when he pitched to each catcher....just as it is entirely false to compare passed balls and wild pitches to a regular catcher compared to a guy that only caught in scattered games... Rog -- I've done that many times to compare apples to apples. Buster and the other Giants pitchers catch essentially the same pitchers. If we want to compare Buster to other catchers -- which I've also done many times -- Buster comes out ahead of the vast majority. Did you happen to notice when I posted that Buster had fewer passed balls plus wild pitches in 2016 than any other catcher who caught 70 or more games this past season? Tim himself caught 123, starting 122 of them. No matter which way I try to show that Buster allows fewer passed balls plus wild pitches than most other catchers, you try to discredit it. But you really can't, since the facts don't support your position. I hope you and I are both alive to see Buster go into the Hall of Fame. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon?page=1#ixzz4RiYWCy7e |
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Post by donk33 on Dec 4, 2016 1:13:44 GMT -5
but I can't go into what Tim's condition was when he pitched to each catcher....just as it is entirely false to compare passed balls and wild pitches to a regular catcher compared to a guy that only caught in scattered games... Rog -- I've done that many times to compare apples to apples. Buster and the other Giants pitchers catch essentially the same pitchers. If we want to compare Buster to other catchers -- which I've also done many times -- Buster comes out ahead of the vast majority. Did you happen to notice when I posted that Buster had fewer passed balls plus wild pitches in 2016 than any other catcher who caught 70 or more games this past season? Tim himself caught 123, starting 122 of them. No matter which way I try to show that Buster allows fewer passed balls plus wild pitches than most other catchers, you try to discredit it. But you really can't, since the facts don't support your position. I hope you and I are both alive to see Buster go into the Hall of Fame. dk...If I live to see Posey in the HOF, I will be over 100 and wouldn't know the difference.... As one famous catcher once said, it is easy to have good numbers as a catcher, just make sure you sign for high fast balls and let the other guy call for low, inside sliders......do you notice the pitch of preference at 0-2 for Giants' pitchers is the high, fast ball...just saying.... Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon?page=1#ixzz4RiYWCy7e |
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Post by donk33 on Dec 4, 2016 1:17:23 GMT -5
for a #1 catcher to have skipped catching the #1/ 2 best pitcher is not a great sign.... Rog -- I get what you're saying, but some pitchers, such as Jon Lester, have their own catchers. In the case of Tim and Buster, I think Buster is very analytical, while Tim is more of a feel guy. Thus, they didn't mix too well. Since catchers catch maybe 3/4th of the games, it's really not much of a problem for a pitcher to have his own catcher. Here's kind of a funny thing. 2011 was the season Tim began to go away from Buster as his catcher. It was also Tim's last good season. Buster caught him only a little over a quarter of the time. But Tim's ERA when Buster caught him was 1.55, while it was over twice as high (3.23) when he pitched to Chris Stewart, Eli Whiteside and Hector Sanchez. Essentially, Tim pitched about equally as well to Tim as he pitched to Hector. He did his best pitching to Bengie Molina and Chris, primarily because those two caught Tim only in his good years. If we look at Buster compared to all the other guys who caught him in his down seasons, it was pretty close, with Buster enjoying a small advantage. I think you're trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill, Don. dk...did you miss the career numbers for each catcher that caught Tim that I posted or don't they fit the cherry picked stats you used? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon#ixzz4RiSg8eoG |
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2016 2:56:37 GMT -5
.did you miss the career numbers for each catcher that caught Tim that I posted or don't they fit the cherry picked stats you used? Rog -- That would be a negatory. You didn't mention how Buster was ranked among all catchers in Bill James's annual, Don. I still haven't seen it, but I'd be surprised if he's not ranked #1. How about this, Don. Break your pattern and tell us three things you like about Buster. And, Randy. Break your pattern and tell us three things you like about ANYTHING! I feel sorry for your having to live in such a negative world. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon#ixzz4RqzZXZ00 |
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Post by donk33 on Dec 5, 2016 14:23:18 GMT -5
.did you miss the career numbers for each catcher that caught Tim that I posted or don't they fit the cherry picked stats you used? Rog -- That would be a negatory. You didn't mention how Buster was ranked among all catchers in Bill James's annual, Don. I still haven't seen it, but I'd be surprised if he's not ranked #1. How about this, Don. Break your pattern and tell us three things you like about Buster. And, Randy. Break your pattern and tell us three things you like about ANYTHING! I feel sorry for your having to live in such a negative world. dk...reread what I wrote, James rated him #1 in all categories......but you didn't believe him when he was rated down in the middle, so why should I believe him now?  Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon#ixzz4RqzZXZ00 |
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Post by Rog on Dec 6, 2016 0:47:35 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Dec 9, 2016 13:55:26 GMT -5
you didn't believe him when he was rated down in the middle, so why should I believe him now? Rog -- I realize you said this with a smiley face, Don, but I did want to clarify. In Buster's five full seasons, he's been ranked in the Fielding Glove voting as #5, #7, #8, #1 and #1. I think we've discussed this pretty much every one of those years. We see that in Buster's first three full seasons, he was ranked in or just below the top quartile, but not at or near the very top. I think that's pretty much how he was viewed here. I think Buster's case was very strong this season. . He was ranked #1 in pitch framing. . He had fewer passed balls plus wild pitches allowed than any catcher with 70 or more games, even though he started three-quarters MORE than that himself. . He recorded an out on 32 of the 33 topped balls and bunts he fielded. . He posted a career high in caught stealings and seemed to significantly improve his accuracy. Buster had his worst full season with the bat, but he had an outstanding season with the glove. That's why he is still considered the best catcher in the game and is probably a year closer to the Hall of Fame. The Giants have two significant Hall of Fame candidates. Buster is ahead even of Madison Bumgarner right now. That the two of them have been so successful takes me back to April 10, 2009, the night Madison made his San Jose debut and the first time Buster caught him in a regular season game. I wish we all could have been there. It's a great memory. There just aren't that many chances to see a potential Hall of Fame battery make its minor league debut together. That it wasn't the season opener, making it possible we could have chosen the wrong date to attend, makes it all the sweeter. I don't really know the answer to this, but assuming both Buster and Madison do wind up making the Hall, might it have been one of the very few times two Hall of Fame pitchers hooked up for the first time in the minor leagues? I just took a look at Yogi Berra and Whitey Ford, and it didn't happen there. It probably happened somewhere along the line, but it is likely a rare occurrence. We were blessed to be there to see it. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3615/compare-buster-posey-hunter-brandon#ixzz4SMqFKVqJ |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 9, 2016 14:09:46 GMT -5
thing about Buster is the thing Don and I struggle with concerning his work behind the plate.
He's awkward. He's not fluid....
both because he HASN'T caught most of his life.
But regardless of his style, goofy as it often looks, he IS effective, and the bottom line is that, THAT is what is most important.
boly
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