Fourth-Best One/Two Punch?

[Rog]

Sports Illustrated has ranked the Giants' one/two rotation punch of Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto as the fourth-best in the majors.  They comment that Bumgarner is still just 26 years old and mention that Cueto's 6/$130 contract could be in jeopardy near its end, but that as long as Johnny continues to pitch well, the pairing should remain strong.

The Nationals' Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg were ranked #3.  The Indians' Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco were ranked #2.  (I took them both in my first fantasy draft, Mark.)  The top tandem was the Mets' Jacob deGromm and Matt Harvey.  (I didn't take either, but I took both Noah Syndegaard and Steve Metz, who might also give the Mets the top quartet.)

Going from Madison and not anybody's son to the #4 duo this winter is a very nice accomplishment.  Madison and Zack Greinke would likely have been the top pair if that had materialized, but the Giants are still far ahead of last year's #1 duo team, the Dodgers.  The Dodgers' present duo of Clayton Kershaw and Scott Kazmir now ranks only #13.  That's what the loss of Greinke has done.

All pieces would need to click, but the Giants have a shot at having the best full rotation.  Their #3, 4 and 5 guys include one of the top arms, a guy was about as solid as they came from 2009 through 2012, and a former Cy Young winner who now has a career 2.99 ERA with the Giants.  


That last ERA coincidentally was the ERA posted by Jeff Samardzija in 2014.  Matt Cain was below that rate in 2009, 2011 and 2012.  If we throw in the postseason in which he gave up no earned runs in 21 innings, Matt was easily below that barrier in 2010 as well.

Chris Heston and Clayton Blackburn remain in reserve.

[klaiggeb]

Maybe I'm just a foolish moron, but honestly, I'm not worried about Jeffy S. I'm really no.

Not worried about Cueto, either.

My ONLY rotation concern is Cain.

I WANT to believe the guy we saw in that last start IS the guy who we'll get back... and if he is, and if I'm right about Jeffy and Cueto... we're going to be tough to beat.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I'm not worried about Cain because the expectations aren't that high. If he can't pitch, Lincecum, Heston or Blackburn replaces him and they can meet the low expectations fairly easily. Same goes for Peavy, if he's bad he gets replaced.

All the pressure rests on the shoulders of Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija to do well. I expect Bumgarner to remain the same or get slightly better, Cueto I expect to be good, Samardzija is the one I worry about.

[sfgdood]

I think the Indians tandem is overrated. The Giants top two are the only ones on this list with a ring. As to Samardzija, I think the signing of Cueto is the best thing that could have happened for him...it takes all the pressure off.

[Islandboagie]

Randy- I think the Indians tandem is overrated.

Boagie- I agree, I think the Nationals tandem is also overrated. Sherzer is still elite, but Strausburg is looking more like a #3 pitcher these days. Degrom is a stud, with Harvey you have a very elite 1-2 punch. Perhaps the only actual elite 1-2 punch in baseball. What makes the Mets staff so good is Syndergaard could also be in the elite category. It reminds me of the Giants in 2010-2011 with Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner.

If you base it on the track record, Bumgarner and Cueto are elite, but at this point there are questions surrounding Cueto's arm. I'd put them second behind the Mets now, but if Cueto pitches like he did prior to 2015, they'll be a great 1-2 punch.

[klaiggeb]

boagie, the only reason I said I'm worried about Cain is NOT because he's the lynch-pin in the rotation, it's just that I have such a strong, strong belief that I am RIGHT about Jeffy and Cueto, and Bumgarner.

And I'm a huge believer that Jeffy S will rebound because, and in no particular order:

1-AT&T park

2-Our DEFENSE in all parks

3-Righetti

4-He's so much like Jason Schmidt was at this point of his career, it's scary!

5-He's GOT great stuff

6-Bochy will handle him wisely and not over extend him when he senses things are going awry.

7-The FOUND a flaw in his delivery.

8-I contend that last season was an aberration. Things went wrong, and then steamrolled down hill and no one seemed to know how to fix it. They didn't have Righetti.

9-If Jake Arrieta can SUDDENLY do what HE DID last year... and he has less stuff than Jeffy, so can Jeffy. Better stuff, more velocity.

My point about Cain was this:

He's the number 4 or 5 guy and IF... IF he's really found that arm slot, our 5 starters could be better than ANY TEAM'S top 5 guys.


Cain's elbow has had the chips removed, and when he returned he had better arm extension and THAT changed his release point.

Thus and I know it sounds simple, but he had to learn a release point all over again, and THAT's not easy.

Thing is, I can relate to what's happened to Cain.

In college I had a small arm injury, and when it healed I had literally forgotten how to pitch!

I mean seriously!

No movement, no velocity, no commande

My mechanics, which had NEVER been a problem, had vanished!

For me, it turned out to all be about balance at the top of my delivery, but Man! Getting them back was a living hell!

You start to doubt yourself, you confidence goes and you wonder what happened.

And Cain is having to do this at the major league level, not in college as I did.

Talk about pressure!


He makes it back, with the stuff we saw from him in September, and we'll scare the heck out of everyone!

boly

[Islandboagie]

Boly- boagie, the only reason I said I'm worried about Cain is NOT because he's the lynch-pin in the rotation, it's just that I have such a strong, strong belief that I am RIGHT about Jeffy and Cueto, and Bumgarner.

Boagie- Not offense, Boly, but prior to this last post-season your opinion of Cueto wasn't a favorable one. If I recall correctly, you labeled him as a "me" guy with silly hair. I'm glad you reconsidered, but it doesn't say much for your ironclad beliefs on certain players you don't know that much about.

To be honest with you, I'm worried about every single one of them. Having gone through the fizzling out of Lincecum and Cain's dominance, the plunge of Jonathan Sanchez, the resurrection of Vogelsong and Zito, I am not certain about much these days.

The reason I'm more worried about Cueto and Samardzija is because if they shit the bed the Giants are in big trouble. If Cain does, I believe the Giants are in a position to replace him without losing much expectancy for this up coming season.

Samardzija worries me the most because he doesn't appear to be cut from the same cloth as Bumgarner, Cain or Cueto. He's the biggest question mark of them all because I haven't seen him in a high pressure situation. I would put my money on the other three to roll out of bed tomorrow and pitch the 7th game of the World Series, because that's what they do. Losing isn't an option that pops into their head, even for a second. Samardzija has made a career of losing, and in grand fashion. I just don't know if he has the head to compete in a nerve wracking pennant race.

Of course, I hope they all play up to their potential and make us wrong about doubting any of them. But right now, I doubt Samardzija's head. After all, how many struggling guys with good stuff turn out to have a head of shit that leads to their downfall?

I really hope that's not the case with Samardzija, but if I said the red flags weren't there I'd be lying to myself.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie- Not offense, Boly, but prior to this last post-season your opinion of Cueto wasn't a favorable one. If I recall correctly, you labeled him as a "me" guy with silly hair. I'm glad you reconsidered, but it doesn't say much for your ironclad beliefs on certain players you don't know that much about.

***boly says***

Ironclad beliefs? That's not, and never has been me.

I listen to the opinions of others, and have frequently reconsidered when ample evidence has been introduced.

Ask Mark and Rog, they'll back up my statement.

My comments about Cueto were ALWAYS phrased like this: "Everything I heard and read about him..."

after it was obvious he was high on the Giant's list in the late going, TONS of things were written about him, and said about him on MLB tonight.

I caught many, and when I did NOT hear even one disparaging remark, I realized that I was wrong, and thus reconsidered.


But I understand your concern about both new guys; they screw up and blow it... that's a huge commitment and a TON of money flushed down the toilet.


I'm basing my comfort level a LOT upon the Giant medical staff, and the coaching staff, and the research they did before they signed them.

It is for those reasons I'm not overly worried about those 2.


Hey. Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm just being foolish or overly optimistic.

But I've been labeled Mr. Gloom and Doom on this board, and the one time I'm not...

Well, who knows.

boly

[Rog]

I think the Indians tandem is overrated. The Giants top two are the only ones on this list with a ring.


Rog -- If Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke had replaced the Indians' duo last season, they likely wouldn't have won a ring either. In fact, how many rings DID Clayton and Zack win last year? How many have Cueto and Samardzija won?

My point is that if winning rings were a strong criterion, Javier Lopez would be at the top of the rotation.





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3196/fourth-best-punch#ixzz3yqbowBnM

[Rog]

Boly definitely changed his mind on Cueto. He was under the impression that Johnny was bad in the clubhouse, but we couldn't find any evidence, and his opinion changed.

I think it was the dreadlocks that set him off!

[klaiggeb]

Rog-Boly definitely changed his mind on Cueto. He was under the impression that Johnny was bad in the clubhouse, but we couldn't find any evidence, and his opinion changed.

I think it was the dreadlocks that set him off!

***boly says***

Here's a huge piece of honesty, Rog, and I hope most people appreciate that I'm sharing a piece of me.

1- You are right; at least to a point. Though I had "heard" and "read" that Cueto was a distraction and a me-me-me guy, yes; his dreadlocks did put me off my feed.

2-Same with Lincecum and that 1968 hippy long hair. That put me off my feed, too, as did his many dalliances with ganga and getting high. That is DISRESPECTING the talents God gave you.


But all that said, from all that I've read and heard, Tim IS a good guy, and so is Johnny, and THAT is what changed my mind about both.

You want truth and honesty, THAT is truth and honesty.

I'm not above reproach and I can, have and will change my mind about people and situations.



I'm an old guy with old ideals and and old morals and an old sense of ethics and honor that don't coincide with so many of the millennium and it's children.

I believe in honor. That what you say is what you mean.

I believe in being humble

I believe in the team concept that we win TOGETHER, not as individuals. It's not ME, it's US. Want to win as an individual? Go play golf.

I don't believe in abusing your God given talents nor the body He gave you.

I don't believe in doing anything to call attention to yourself like the morons in the NFL do with their idiotic end zone dances, the crap they do after they make a play THEY ARE PAID TO MAKE, and the other nonsense that goes with it. You're a professional Act like it! And don't give me this horse crap that "you're just having fun." what you're doing is RUBBING it in the noses of those you just beat. Show some respect, and remember, most of all, our children are watching.

I don't believe in putting one's self above the team as Puig, for example, does.

I have no time for prima-donnas, again, like Puig, Manny Ramirez and others of their ilk I don't CARE how good they are.

I don't believe in chasing every last dollar I can milk from a team, as Greinke did. I've asked this question hundreds of times; "Just how many MILLIONS are enough?"

Now you know something about me.

Feel free to rip me a new one.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I won't rip you on your beliefs, Boly. I agree with a lot of them. But you did just tell me that you don't have ironclad beliefs.

[klaiggeb]

boagie-I won't rip you on your beliefs, Boly. I agree with a lot of them. But you did just tell me that you don't have ironclad beliefs.

***boly says***

Boagie, I wasn't clear enough. My fault.

I DON'T have ironclad beliefs on players or people. When presented with sufficient evidence, I can and will change my mind.

I thought I referenced that with Tim and Cueto.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Boagie, I wasn't clear enough. My fault.

I DON'T have ironclad beliefs on players or people. When presented with sufficient evidence, I can and will change my mind.

I thought I referenced that with Tim and Cueto.

boly

Boagie: My mistake. It would appear we're roughly the same in that regard. I have changed my position on a number of players, Angel Pagan being a good example, although last season was about what I expected back in 2012. I hope this season Jeff Samardzija makes the list, and I hope you're wrong about Cain.

Matt Cain is a tough one to figure out. He's such a calm and cool character that it's hard to know. In a recent interview on KNBR he took most of the time to talk about golf, rather than talking about how he feels going into this season. It worries me that he felt more compelled to talk about something other than baseball. Then again, hours before his perfect game he was seen driving golf balls into bay.

I guess my argument with your take on Cain stems from him being probably my favorite Giant of all time. I even named my dog "Cain." I'm not holding my breath for a great turn around from Cain this season, but if that happened, we'd be in a great position to win it all again.

[klaiggeb]

boagie-I hope this season Jeff Samardzija makes the list, and I hope you're wrong about Cain.

Matt Cain is a tough one to figure out. He's such a calm and cool character that it's hard to know. In a recent interview on KNBR he took most of the time to talk about golf, rather than talking about how he feels going into this season. It worries me that he felt more compelled to talk about something other than baseball. Then again, hours before his perfect game he was seen driving golf balls into bay.

I guess my argument with your take on Cain stems from him being probably my favorite Giant of all time. I even named my dog "Cain." I'm not holding my breath for a great turn around from Cain this season, but if that happened, we'd be in a great position to win it all again.


***boly says***

I'm a HUGE Matt Cain fan, boagie, Huge!

I'm guessing that he's so sick up and fed with discussing his arm and his comeback, that he now wants to simply go out and let his work to the talking for him.

For professional athletes it must get frustrating answering the same questions over and over and over. It's like, "What? Weren't you listing THE LAST 12 TIMES I answered that question?"

But I am confused; why would you say you hope I'm wrong about Cain?


All I ever posted was that:

1-He was my concern, not the new starters.

2-Re-finding that release point is going to be tricky because I've gone through it.

3-IF the Matt Cain we saw in that last start is THE guy we get back this year, WE are going to have THE best rotation in baseball because we'll be 5 deeper than anyone else.


boly

[Islandboagie]

Boly- But I am confused; why would you say you hope I'm wrong about Cain?

Boagie- I should re-word my previous comment.

I hope your concerns about Cain go unfounded. I have the same concerns and I hope they go unfounded too. But even if he does turn it around, it's very unlikely that he turn into a frontline starter and pitch 200+ innings again.

Matt Cain wasn't really the topic I was trying to focus on in the begining. The Giants have built the success of 2016 around Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija. If any combination of those three fail to do what is expected of them, there will be a lot of slack left for the rest of the team to pick up. That's why I worry about them more than Peavy or Cain. As I said before, Heston or Blackburn could come in and replace either Cain or Peavy without much decline of expectations. I hope it doesn't happen, but I see it as a fairly good possibility. If Heston or Blackburn have to replace Cueto or Samardzija, or god forbid, Madison Bumgarner...then we're in a heap of trouble. Then we go back to a situation we had last year where our bullpen is being overworked.

That's why my main worries are:

#1 Bumgarner's innings pitched over the last few seasons.

#2 Cueto's arm trouble last season

#3 Samardzija's less than stellar 2015 season.

That doesn't mean I won't be highly disappointed if we're forced to be replaced, I would be. I just think Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija and more importantly their spots in the rotation would be more difficult to fill. Thus, my worries lie with them more so.

I hope that clears up any miscommunication on my part.

[Islandboagie]

That doesn't mean I won't be highly disappointed if we're forced to be replaced, I would be.

Boagie- Sorry, I meant to say-

That doesn't mean I won't be highly disappointed if we're forced to replace Cain, I would be.

[Rog]

I think the Indians tandem is overrated.


Rog -- Their trio of Kluber, Carrasco and Salazaar is probably even better as a trio than their duo of the first two. Samardzija is clearly the Giants' wildcard for their trio. Add in Peavy and Cain, and the possibility exists for quite a quintet.

Prospect guru John Sickels thinks highly enough of Clayton Blackburn that if he's that good, he might be ahead of Chris Heston as the #6 statter.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Prospect guru John Sickels thinks highly enough of Clayton Blackburn that if he's that good, he might be ahead of Chris Heston as the #6 statter.

Boagie- I didn't know Blackburn was a stat geek too.

[klaiggeb]

thanks, boagie.

Makes sense now.

boly

[Rog]

my main worries are:

#1 Bumgarner's innings pitched over the last few seasons.

#2 Cueto's arm trouble last season

#3 Samardzija's less than stellar 2015 season.


Rog -- Those are valid worries, Boagie. That's baseball, which is why there are almost always worries. I'm happy you had the courage to bring them up.

The good news is that Bumgarner showed no problems last season after he pitched the most innings of any pitcher in organized baseball.

The good news is that after a horrendous stretch last August, Cueto did bounce back a bit. And that over the past five seasons, no major league starter has a lower ERA than Cueto except for Clayton Kershaw.

Regarding Samardzija, he was tipping his pitches last season and his pitching coach apparently wasn't a Dave Righetti. That could have caused the drop from his 2.99 ERA in 2014. The pitching coaches will be tested here -- and they've come up big a lot of times. Remember too that unless he has retired, Dick Tidrow has been good at choosing pitchers.

Remember, Jake Peavy was in an awful slump when the Giants traded for him at the 2014 deadline, and he became the best trade made during that season. The Giants have a knack with pitchers. Sadly, Mike Leake didn't work out at last year's deadline, but it appears injury may have had a lot to do with that.

And over the winter, the Giants preferred Samardzija over Leake, who himself is a pretty good pitcher. Look at the pitchers the Giants chose Samardzija over, and we can see they think a lot of him. Remember, it was Jeff -- not Cueto, Leake or others -- whom the Giants jumped on immediately after losing out on Zack Greinke.

All that being said, Boagie's worries are at least a little bit concerning. Samardzija looks like the wild card.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3196/fourth-best-punch#ixzz3z6dA5axu

[Rog]

And Matt Cain would seem to be wild card #2, possibly with Clayton Blackburn as #3. I don't know quite what to make of Blackburn, but he pitched beautifully in the difficult Pacific Coast League, getting better and better as the season went on.

[klaiggeb]

As far as Blackburn and others in the system go... isn't it NICE that we actually HAVE guys on the horizon who look like they'll really be able to help.

We're fielding an all home grown infield, had, and had, at one time, a mostly home grown rotation.

Be nice to see if we can keep it all together.

boly

[sfgdood]

my main worries are:

#1 Bumgarner's innings pitched over the last few seasons.

#2 Cueto's arm trouble last season

#3 Samardzija's less than stellar 2015 season.

Dood - you are the board's biggest worry wart. That said some of your worries have been warranted. I'm not worried about any of these things, however, least of all Bumgarner's IP. He's a throwback to 4 man rotation times. His work load is far less than he can actually handle and last year, like all odd numbered years, was like a year off, since there was no playoffs for the team.

[Islandboagie]

Dood - you are the board's biggest worry wart.

Boagie- On one hand you're right. I certainly have more worries when it comes to free agent players coming here, especially ones we rely highly on preforming well. Some I've been right about, and some I haven't.

On the other hand, I think I have more faith in the abilities of players that many here have lost faith in. Again, some of that faith was rewarded, some wasn't. But I've always always been forthcoming with my admission of being wrong. And I don't think anyone here has more faith in Bochy, Evans, Sabean and the rest making it work despite any hurdles they might come across.

Randy- I'm not worried about any of these things, however, least of all Bumgarner's IP. He's a throwback to 4 man rotation times. His work load is far less than he can actually handle and last year, like all odd numbered years, was like a year off, since there was no playoffs for the team.

Boagie- My worries on Bumgarner don't stem from the likelihood of something bad happening. I agree with everything you said about the type of pitcher he is, he indeed is a throwback. My worry is based on the condition of the Giants IF something did happen. I worry about Buster just as much. Those are the two players that the Giants definitely cannot afford to lose. Of course, losing anyone from the core of the team would hurt badly, but Bumgarner and Posey stick out the most.

If you've followed my posts this off season you'd remember my focus of acquisitions has been on that solid number 2 starter that we lacked last season. A healthy Cueto gives us exactly that, but if he's not what we're hoping he will be, then we're back to overusing our bullpen again. That's why Cueto is high on my list as well.

We all are interested to see how Cain will be this year. But I think we've already prepared ourselves for the worst, haven't we? If Cain pitches well it's a cherry on top for me, there's hope still there, but it's not expected. Having Heston, Blackburn and hopefully Lincecum waiting in the wings certainly eases any worry we might have.

[Rog]

John Sickels in particular is much higher on the Giants' prospects than has been the case in recent years. He sees no can't miss type prospects, but a lot of good to very good ones.

[klaiggeb]

Rog-John Sickels in particular is much higher on the Giants' prospects than has been the case in recent years. He sees no can't miss type prospects, but a lot of good to very good ones.

***boly says***

I really LIKE the position we're in, and I like his evaluation

Give me LOTS OF VERY GOOD ONES over, ONE can't miss any day of the week.

A team has 8 starting spots, 5 starters, a bullpen, and a bench to fill.

One "can't miss" can't play all spots.

boly

[sfgdood]

what's wrong with lots of can't miss ones?

[Islandboagie]

Randy- what's wrong with lots of can't miss ones?

Boagie- Nothing, if you like being at the bottom if your division.

[Islandboagie]

Of, not if.