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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 14, 2015 23:43:20 GMT -5
I just heard on MLB that you signed Cueto.
My compliments to you, sir, and my most heart felt apology.
I questioned your honesty.
I doubted your sincerity.
I mistrusted you.
I accused you of deceiving your fans
I was, in fact, one of THE most outspoken in railing against you, and gratefully, you not only proved me wrong, but I will gladly take a seat at the table, and chow-down on a plate full of baked crow.
I will.
I was wrong on every count.
You have given me reason to believe that now, we not only have a chance to compete, we have a REALLY good chance to go back to the world series whether you sign an outfielder or not.
Well done, Bobby, well done!
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 15, 2015 1:13:52 GMT -5
You're not egotistical, Boly, and I love that about you.
I hope this gave us all a good idea why we shouldn't judge things until they are allowed to transpire.
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 15, 2015 2:13:49 GMT -5
I have to admit Evans proved me wrong too. I guess I need to not listen to Alex Pavlovic when he says things like "Samardzija WAS the big move." Finally we sign a top FA. Color me impressed and renewed in optimism.
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Post by Rog on Dec 15, 2015 3:55:42 GMT -5
I guess I need to not listen to Alex Pavlovic when he says things like "Samardzija WAS the big move." Rog -- Alex is pretty good, but no one can be right all the time. Perhaps we should simply filter the information that does come our way and see where it leads us -- eventually. Things don't always turn out the way they begin. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3168/dear-bobby#ixzz3uNUKm1aw |
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 15, 2015 9:49:51 GMT -5
Evans said last year that he was too public about his intentions and he wasn't going to do the same thing this time around. Much credit to him, because there literally was nothing about the Giants being interested in Cueto until the morning of the signing. We were probably harder on him last year than we should have been because he was so public about his intentions that it led to disappointment when he didn't land the players he was courting. Cueto was the right signing and he handled it the right way. And for once it's good to see everyone happy about a signing!
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 15, 2015 11:46:55 GMT -5
Interesting thing that I remember, Mark, is that YOU were the one who first proposed both Jeffy S and Cueto on the board.
Bingo!
You got both right!
boly
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Dear Bobby
Dec 15, 2015 13:43:28 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Islandboagie on Dec 15, 2015 13:43:28 GMT -5
Mark- Cueto was the right signing and he handled it the right way. And for once it's good to see everyone happy about a signing!
Boagie- I'm not happy about the length of the contract, or the amount, but it's not my money, so whatever. Now it's up to Cueto and Samardzija to get us back to hoisting the trophy again in 2016, if that happens I'll be happy about both signings.
One thing I do want to touch on though...this idea that the Giants arguably have the best pitching rotation now. I don't know if I agree with that, the Mets are pretty good. it's also a far cry from the staff we had in 2010, 2011, and maybe even 2012. But now, in addition to our offense (which is much stronger than previous years) and defense, we certainly have a rotation that can log a lot of innings, and keep our offense in the game.
Wouldn't it be something if Cain returned to form, and Samardzija reached his potential? then you could make the argument that they do have the best pitching rotation, perhaps one of the best ever, at least on paper. I still think it will be hard to duplicate what we saw from 2010-2012. Especially the way the rotation lined up in the second half of 2010. Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 15, 2015 15:55:04 GMT -5
Boagie:
I haven't heard anyone say we had the best rotation.
What I heard on MLB and other places was that ours had the potential, and likely was, better than LA, SD and Arizona.
And you're soooooooo right about Cain!
IF he's found that arm slot/release point, we could be 4 deep in top starters.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 15, 2015 18:48:56 GMT -5
Boagie, you really think the Giants overpaid in both salary and length of term on this deal? I think Cueto gave us his bargain rates. I can see the length being an issue on the back end, possibly, but that's really the cost of doing business on the FA market, unless you want to dive into the bargain basement. If you want to land a big fish you have to take some chances. It heartens me to see the Giants finally were willing to go a bit further than the others to get a rare talent.
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Post by Rog on Dec 15, 2015 22:44:45 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Dec 15, 2015 22:46:29 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 16, 2015 12:33:38 GMT -5
You're not egotistical, Boly, and I love that about you.
****boly says***
Thank you, Roger, that was very kind.
I am a lot of things; emotional, volatile, impatient, strategic, calculating, and at times cold hearted, but I am NOT egotistical.
As Clint Eastwood said in, I believe, the Enforcer, "A man's got to know his limitations."
And I am very aware of mine.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 16, 2015 12:59:19 GMT -5
If there's one thing Rog DOES know about, it's having an ego
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 16, 2015 13:00:25 GMT -5
Oh, and Boly...the Dirty Harry quote was from Magnum Force
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 16, 2015 15:00:49 GMT -5
Crap!!! I knew I had the wrong movie!
Thanks, Randy!
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Post by Rog on Dec 16, 2015 20:55:42 GMT -5
It heartens me to see the Giants finally were willing to go a bit further than the others to get a rare talent. Rog -- By all accounts, the Giants were willing to go as far or further than other teams last winter too. For a variety of reasons, it just didn't work out. It is possible they fared better this winter than they did last. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3168/dear-bobby#ixzz3uXTl0o1o |
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 17, 2015 3:09:06 GMT -5
it's also a far cry from the staff we had in 2010, 2011, and maybe even 2012.
Rog -- Not 2012, and maybe not either 2010 or 2011. The Giants had Barry Zito in the rotation each of those seasons.
Boagie- That's your argument? They had Barry Zito? I don't think that really proves the point.
In 2012 Zito had 15 wins. Do you think Cain, Samardzija or Peavy will have 15 wins next season? I hope they do, but what are the chances all 3 will be as good or better than Zito was in 2012.
Let's move to 2011. This years team won't have Zito, but neither did the 2011 team, at least not for a large part of the season. That season Zito only started 9 games, then "injured" himself, only to really injure himself in a minor league start. Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Vogelsong and Sanchez all started more games and logged more innings. That season Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner and Vogelsong were very good, Sanchez not so much. Cain, Lincecum and Vogey were all under 3.00, Bumgarner was 3.21.
Next season at least 3 of the pitchers in the rotation would have to improve from their numbers last season to even approach the 2011 rotation - even if you replace Sanchez with Zito.
In 2010 Barry was arguably the best pitcher before the All Star break. Of course, he nose dived after that. In the end he only had 9 wins, but he finished with a 4.15 ERA with almost 200 innings pitched. Do you think Cain, Peavy and Samardzija will all have 4.15 with 200 innings or better? If that happens then your Barry Zito argument is a good one. But it's not likely to happen.
I'm kind of surprised you chose Barry as your argument, Rog. You always defended Barry, saying he was still a valuable #5, which I always agreed with you on, and now you take a 180.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 17, 2015 8:26:45 GMT -5
The Mets definitely have a better rotation, but the Giants have a far better offense and defense. I think the argument isn't best rotation, it's who has the best team, and right now it's us and the Cubs, and we're not cursed by a Billy goat!
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 17, 2015 8:28:13 GMT -5
Also, if you're worried about the length of the contract, don't be. He has an out after two seasons. If he pitches like we all think he will, you're going to wish the contract was longer because he'll be gone quickly!
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 17, 2015 12:23:16 GMT -5
Once again, Mark, you hit the bulls-eye; It's who has the better TEAM.
And right NOW, it is us and the Cubs.
I think we get a SLILGHT edge for a couple of reasons.
1-Better team chemistry
2-The weather in SF doesn't wear a player out like the heat and humidity in Chicago
3-Less chances of rain outs causing double headers which KILL a pitching staff
4-A more experienced team.
It's really almost too close to call, but I think it'll really come down to one thing;
Health.
Who is the most healthy when we hit September.
boly
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 17, 2015 12:25:36 GMT -5
I left one BIG thing out with the edge to us:
Ballpark.
Wrigley can be a nightmare to pitchers when the wind blows out.
AT&T usually plays the same. Or at least is more consistent when it comes to atmospheric interference.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 17, 2015 17:18:45 GMT -5
Boagie- That's your argument? They had Barry Zito? I don't think that really proves the point. In 2012 Zito had 15 wins. Rog -- Barry did indeed win 15 games, but it was based more on his 4.76 runs of support than his 4.10 ERA. 2012 was a very heavy pitchers park year for AT&T, and he pitched 101 of his 183 innings at home. His 4.10 ERA was actually good for only an 85 ERA+. (100 is average.) I'll give you an example of a game I remember well in which Barry didn't lock up a win that was handed to him. On August 29th, the Giants took a 4-0 first inning lead over the Astros, lighting up the guy who went on to win this year's American League Cy Young Award. Dallas (Should have been a Ranger) Kuechel didn't have a very good rookie season for the Astros, posting a 5.27 ERA in 85 innings. Handed that 4-0 lead, Barry couldn't even get out of the 3rd inning. He gave up only three runs, but it could have been worse. He left George Kontos runners on first and second with only one out, but George immediately retired the next two batters. The Giants went on to come from behind and win, 6-4, so even though Barry blew an easy win, he was spared the loss. You mentioned Matt Cain. In 2007, Matt pitched much better than Zito did in 2012, yet got only seven wins. Matt's 3.65 ERA (ERA+ of 123, 4th-highest of his career) was overcome by only 3.20 runs of support. You know, Boagie, that wins are a team stat. Barry didn't pitch well in 2012, but he got wonderful support. Due to the very high expectations stemming from his $126 million contractact, many underrated Barry's stint with the Giants. But in 2012, he was clearly overrated. For a pitcher to pitch 15% below league average and go 15-8 tells us without even looking that his record was due far more to his run support than his pitching. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3168/dear-bobby#ixzz3ucJd8UGj |
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Post by Rog on Dec 17, 2015 17:20:33 GMT -5
By the way, Boagie, when I made the first post, I was pretty sure you would use the Zito argument. On its face, it is an excellent argument. But when one looks at what actually happened, it loses its luster.
This is a joke, but you would know that if you actually watched the games! Ain't THAT a hot one?
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Post by Rog on Dec 17, 2015 17:22:37 GMT -5
It's really almost too close to call, but I think it'll really come down to one thing; Health. Who is the most healthy when we hit September. Rog -- The Giants are an older club with poor injury history, so I hope it doesn't come down to that. Then again, all the Giants have to do is make the playoffs, and the Cubs shouldn't have a huge impact on that. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3168/dear-bobby?page=1#ixzz3ucShlucq |
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Post by Rog on Dec 17, 2015 17:30:24 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Dec 17, 2015 17:35:32 GMT -5
Oops! I gave Barry an extra start in the 2010 first half. His first half ERA was actually 3.76, so he clearly wasn't the Giants' best pitcher. And his 4.70 ERA in the season's second half clearly wasn't the best.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 18, 2015 0:37:33 GMT -5
When you throw in June, Lincecum edged Zito. But from April to May they were neck and neck, remember I said arguably? Just another example of you relying solely on the stats and arguing just to argue. Boly is right, sometimes you're just exasperating.
And Zito was good in 2012. He kept us in the games, and pitched beautifully in the post season. I'd take that next season from Peavy, Cain and Samardzija.
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Post by Rog on Dec 18, 2015 12:12:46 GMT -5
When you throw in June, Lincecum edged Zito. But from April to May they were neck and neck, remember I said arguably? Just another example of you relying solely on the stats and arguing just to argue. Boly is right, sometimes you're just exasperating.
Rog -- Sorry to be exasperating when I could be totally unbearable with so little more effort! Really, though, sorry to be so exasperating.
Regarding Zito, through the All-Star game Tim was better, although Barry was good himself. In addition to an ERA of 3.16 to Barry's 3.76 (I added an extra start for each pitcher earlier), Tim was 9-4 to Barry's 7-4.
Tim started that season off in spectacular fashion, but slumped around mid-May IIRC. He righted his ship before suffering through an August that turned out to be a precursor of 2012-2015.
Then on September 1st, he pitched an excellent game against the Rockies to beat Ubaldo Jimenez 2-1, with Darren Ford scoring the winning run when he stole third base and scored on an errant throw. Tim was back to being his old self, and capped it with an outstanding season in which he as the postseason MVP (although he lost out on the World Series MVP to Edgar Renteria's clutch game-winning home run.
You may recall that Barry showed his class by not complaining when he was left out of the postseason rotation. Barry had a decent season that year, but his ERA+ was only 94. That's below-average pitching.
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Post by Rog on Dec 18, 2015 12:30:34 GMT -5
And Zito was good in 2012. He kept us in the games, and pitched beautifully in the post season. I'd take that next season from Peavy, Cain and Samardzija. Rog -- I understand what you're saying about Barry's 2012 season. He did, after all, go a wonderful 15-8. But if one looks beneath the surface, one sees how lucky he was. He benefited hugely from his home park and tremendous run support. Barry's ERA+ in 2012 was 84. Based on that evaluation -- which includes a park adjustment -- he wasn't very good at all. But 4.76 runs of support for a pitcher who pitched over half his games in an extreme pitchers' park will do that. Let's put it this way. In 2010, Barry had the same 4.15 ERA he posted in 2012. But that season he received just 3.61 runs of support and posted only a 9-14 record. The one thing I will say about Barry in 2012 is that he pitched well in his wins but horribly in his losses. Barry's ERA was 2.25 in his wins and 8.31 (!) in his losses. Before we get overly excited by that 2.25 ERA, we should put it into perspective. That season Tim Lincecum -- who suffered through his worst season -- was 1.54 in his wins. Matt Cain came in at 1.68 in wins. Madison Bumgarner was 1.83. Ryan Vogelsong was 2.11. This overstates Barry's season to the downside, but when he won, he allowed the most runs of any Giants starter, and when he lost, he was horrid. We would need to look high and low to find another season in baseball history in which a pitcher pitched WORSE than Barry and yet went 15-8. I told you I learn when people disagree, and this is one case. I hadn't realized until now the extent of the incongruity between Barry's pitching (84 ERA+) and his won-loss record of 15-8. That must have been close to unprecedented. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3168/dear-bobby?page=1#ixzz3uh3dP3CK |
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Post by Rog on Dec 18, 2015 12:51:29 GMT -5
Barry's ERA+ that season was 85, not the 84 I posted above. In comparison, Matt Cain went 16-5 with a 126 ERA+. Madison Bumgarner went 16-11 with a 105 mark, and Ryan Vogelsong went 14-9 with a 105 ERA+.
Over the past 20 years the only other Giants' starters who won seven or more than they lost who posted an ERA+ of 100 or less was Shawon Estes in 2000 and Marc Gardner's 93 in 1998. Estes got a ridiculous 7.61 runs of support, and Gardner received an extremely generous 5.68. The other Giants who won seven more than they lost in a season posted an average ERA+ of close to 140.
Barry's 2012 season was historic in nature, but not historically good.
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