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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 5, 2015 11:25:27 GMT -5
IF our big, free agent signing is Justin H. or Cespedes, I'm going to be ticked beyond belief.
And I mean TICKED!
Every 'expert' I listen to, or read, when talking about the Giants, LOVES their line up.
Or, if not LOVES their line up, says it's solid.
We do NOT need a blasted bat!
We don't!
Or at least NOT a corner outfielder.
Parker and Williamson have solid, solid upsides!
Signing a corner outfielder blocks the future of two good looking prospects!
And frankly, Williamson might have a higher upside than Parker, even though Parker made the bigger splash.
Once again, I'm left holding my breath.
Once again, I have to prepare myself for an off season that "could be doomed" to 2nd or 3rd place before it begins.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 5, 2015 12:49:28 GMT -5
You're forgetting that the Dodgers just lost Zack Greinke, I don't forsee the Dodgers easily taking the division.
I'm as disappointed as anyone about not getting Greinke, but most of my interest in getting Greinke was to lure him away from the Dodgers. If you look at this situation optimistically, we just increased our chances of winning the division without spending a dime. In the end, I think that's a victory. Now we just need to add better starters than the Dodgers from here on out, and we should be considered the team to beat.
As far as the Diamondbacks go..they made a big mistake. If any team didn't need a pitcher like Greinke, it's the Diamondbacks. They have far too many holes to think Greinke will make a significant difference. Dave Stewart basically signed his own resignation with that move.
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 5, 2015 13:56:05 GMT -5
with all due repect, Boagie, my sights were set higher than merely beating out the Dodgers for the division title. You may very well be right that our chances of winning the west crown improved...but our chances of adding to our 3 WS titles took a HUGE hit.
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 16:02:34 GMT -5
IF our big, free agent signing is Justin H. or Cespedes, I'm going to be ticked beyond belief. Rog -- I understand your point, since it isn't at all wrong of you to point to pitching. We all see that as the Giants' biggest need. If by Justin H. you mean Justin Upton, not Jason Heyward, I would say only that you are perhaps going a little overboard. But if Justin H. is in fact Jason Heyward, I would suggest you rethink your position. Heyward isn't a great hitter, but he's a very good one. He does what you want a player to do -- get on base, be a top fielder, and be a top base runner. I heard Jason described yesterday as a top 10 base runner and a top 10 fielder (in the game, not merely in right field). There are very few right fielders in the game who are better than Jason Heyward. Of course, the sad thing is I don't think the Giants will be signing Heyward. And I'm not very happy with their signing of Jeff Samardzija. (You may need to learn the spelling now!) But as usual, let's wait and see how things turn out this winter -- and more importantly, next summer and beyond. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152/#ixzz3tTwsWTZv |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 5, 2015 17:47:09 GMT -5
Rog, I was referring to Heyward.
He's a really, really good hitter, but we have a solid line up as it is. We don't 'need' him.
He'd be a great add, but NOT at the expense of starting pitching.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 20:35:20 GMT -5
I was referring to Heyward. He's a really, really good hitter, but we have a solid line up as it is. We don't 'need' him. He'd be a great add, but NOT at the expense of starting pitching. Rog -- I understand what you are saying here, Boly, and my guess is that every single poster agrees with you. Every single one of us agrees that the single biggest need was starting pitching. And Mark makes a great point about it not only being the impact of the player who is replacing, but his difference over the player he replaces. Apparently the Giants indeed haven't been serious about Heyward because they believe the bidding will go too high. And with articles such as the one that appeared in Sports Illustrated as to Jason's being worth $300 million, they're probably right. I was projecting Jason at 10/$230, and that probably isn't high enough. But I do believe Jason was the most impactful player on the market, due in part to his being only 26 years old. Who will have the most impact in 2016? Probably Price, Greinke or Heyward, but it might be one of the other guys, as well. I prefer Heyward for a plethora of different reasons: . The track record for over-30 free agent pitchers on long-term contracts isn't good. Price, Greinke and/or others may change that trend, but each one of their contracts needs to buck the trend to be successful. . At 26, Heyward is just entering prime, while the top free agent pitchers may be starting to leave theirs. . Heyward will likely be contributing well after the top pitchers are no longer doing so or are even out of the game. . I believe Jason could play center field if necessary, and the Giants don't have a center fielder they can count on to produce both at the plate and in the field. . Left field is a position of high need. Jason could play that position or could shift either Pagan or Pence there. . Jason's defense would make every Giants pitcher better. Instead of reducing runs every fifth day as a starter can, Heyward has the potential to reduce runs every time he takes the field. . With his speed and defense, Heyward fits AT&T park to the first and second T's. . He is an all-around player, meaning like Willie Mays (although clearly at a lesser level), he can hurt you with his bat, his glove or his legs. . Jason is considered elite in both fielding and base running. He also keeps the line moving. He would add both speed and an on-base presence to the top third of the lineup. . Signing Jason shouldn't preclude adding at least one starting pitcher. . The Giants have only Hunter Pence as an experienced outfielder under contract after the upcoming season. . Jason would add to the under-29 core. . With Heyward, the Giants very likely would both score more runs and yield fewer. Half a dozen years or more from now I suspect we will wish the Giants had signed Jason -- or at least will find that he has made a bigger contribution than almost any 2016 free agent. This discussion really doesn't matter, since the Giants are highly unlikely to sign Heyward. I myself didn't pick up on his value until three days or so ago. I fully understand the Giants' need for starting pitching (even now after signing Jeff Samardzija), and I wouldn't preclude going after some. But whereas the Giants should likely be happy with three to five years of high-level production from one of the top starters, they might get half a dozen or more from Heyward, who likely will still be a potential All-Star a decade from now. Hey, why don't we check on this half a dozen years down the road and then again after a decade. Assuming we can remember that long, of course! Remember what? Did I say something? I think I'm getting senile. And another thing! I think I'm getting senile. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152/#ixzz3tUywFk6f |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 6, 2015 1:49:25 GMT -5
Whatever we get from here on out doesn't matter. As far as I'm concerned, this offseason is a second straight abject failure because the starting rotation isn't getting the upgrade it needs
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Post by Rog on Dec 6, 2015 9:50:53 GMT -5
Whatever we get from here on out doesn't matter. As far as I'm concerned, this offseason is a second straight abject failure because the starting rotation isn't getting the upgrade it needs Rog -- We're all shocked you feel that way. There are still moves that could be made, and Samardzija has as much potential to tap as nearly any pitcher on the free agent market. I'm not happy yet either, but it doesn't make sense to just give up, does it? Instead of ranting about what HASN'T been done, why not examine what could still be done to improve the team? It ain't over till it's over. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152/#ixzz3tYIwJR4b |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 6, 2015 16:06:39 GMT -5
Rog, part of me agrees with Randy. Once again, we were shut out in getting top tier arms.
Again, my question, why?
Still, no one has an answer.
The Samardzja deal MAY work out.
Then again, it may not.
We needed, and still DO NEED, a proven top tier arm.
Now it's once again, fingers crossed, holding our breath and frankly, that's getting old.
Fingers crossed:
1-WILL Cain be close to the guy he once was?
2-WILL Samardzja re bound, and/& or suddenly blossom like Jason Schmidt did?
3-WILL Heston be the pitcher of the 1st half or the 2nd half?
4-WILL one of our other kid pitchers step up and prove himself at the ML level?
Sorry, but for me, that's too many unknowns.
And THAT is why Randy made his statement, and THAT is why part of me agrees with him.
We FAIL to sign Leake and/or Pfister, and as far as I'm concerned, this off season won't be an abysmal failure, but darned close.
You may feel differently.
You may be content to "let it play out."
I'm not.
Randy's not.
How did last year play out? And the bigger question, is THIS year destined to play out the SAME WAY BECAUSE our front office dropped the ball.... AGAIN?
They say they made every effort to sign Shields, and Lester, and Price and Greinke and blahblahblah.
Fact is, they DIDN'T.
They failed each and every time, and I no longer care WHAT the reason(s) is(are).
Failure is failure is failure.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2015 2:20:57 GMT -5
How did last year play out? And the bigger question, is THIS year destined to play out the SAME WAY BECAUSE our front office dropped the ball.... AGAIN? Rog -- Let's ask a couple of serous questions here about last season and last off-season. First, if the Giants had remained healthy, would they have made the postseason? Second, if they had signed any of their top three targets last winter (which would have made us happy, right -- at least with Lester or Shields?), would they have made the playoffs. Let's look at the second question first. The Giants finished 8 games behind the Dodgers. Jon Lester was worth 3 Wins Above Replacement. James Shields was worth 2. Neither of those is close to 8. Put Lester or Shields in the rotation, and it is very unlikely that the Giants would have won the NL West -- especially since either of those likely would have been signed instead of Jake Peavy, who himself was worth a game and a half. Or maybe Chris Heston wouldn't have been needed -- but then the Giants would have missed out on Chris's win and a half. In other words, signing any of the players we feel would have made last off-season a success would have been highly unlikely to result in winning the NL West unless ... The Giants had stayed healthy. Here are the approximate wins added if players had stayed healthy. This doesn't take into account how their contributions may have been diminished by injury when they actually did come back from them, but is merely the pro-rated portion of the wins they would have earned by playing the extra time. Hunter Pence, 2 wins. Brandon Belt, 1 win. Joe Panik, 2 wins. Jake Peavy, 1 win. Nori Aoki, 1 win. That's seven wins. If one of them had come against the Dodgers, the two teams would have tied. If two of them had come against the Dodgers, the Giants would have won by one game. In other words, adding one of their top three targets wouldn't have added enough to make it realistic that they would have won the NL West. One could argue that having a starter who went deeper into games would have saved the bullpen, but the Giants' bullpen was one of the best in the majors at holding leads, and Boagie pointed out they did the best of keeping inherited runners from scoring of any bullpen in the majors. But avoiding injuries just might have done the trick. Avoiding injuries might have done the trick. Adding Lester or Shields very likely wouldn't have. Adding Pablo Sandoval ... The Giants' run differential this past season was only three fewer than the Dodgers'. The Giants don't have that much ground to catch up. Things will change before the winter is open, but today the Giants likely have the stronger team than the Dodgers. Samardzija will likely help the Giants to some degres, while losing Greinke will pull more than a handful of wins from the Dodgers. Saying that this season will play out the same way as last season ignores how the Giants will help themselves, how healthy they can stay, and whether the Dodgers are able to recoup the loss of Greinke. We can see that by looking at each component one by one. Blaming the Giants' front office for losing out to the Dodgers again is WAY premature at this point. Let the season begin tomorrow, and the Giants might well be favored over the Dodgers. It seems likely that at the very least they would be the co-favorites or very close to it. The Diamondbacks might then make it a three-horse race. Giants plus health plus Samardzija is likely greater than or equal to the Dodgers plus Seager minus Greinke. It comes down to simple math. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152/#ixzz3takcdqlx |
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2015 2:23:04 GMT -5
You may be content to "let it play out." I'm not. Randy's not. Rog -- You're right. Why mess around with that long season when we could just have crowned the Giants the winner if they had signed Greinke? Why be content to let it play out? That's six months wasted. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152?page=1#ixzz3tcKqBvH5 |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 7, 2015 2:42:10 GMT -5
It comes down to simple math.
Dood - this statement encapsulates why stats geeks will never get it, and why my signature line is spot on. This is NOT a game of strat o matic. It's played by real athletes, not by numbers on a computer screen. There is so much about this game that stats and designer metrics like WAR do not and cannot take into account.
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2015 3:20:41 GMT -5
Dood - this statement encapsulates why stats geeks will never get it, and why my signature line is spot on. This is NOT a game of strat o matic. Rog -- Of course this isn't a game of Strat-O-Matic. I haven't played that game since I was a kid. Here is what I'd like you to do, Randy. Show me step by step or game by game how many wins Sandoval, Lester or Shields would have added to the Giants' total, and we can talk turkey. WAR isn't perfect, but even major league teams refer to it. At the very least, it's objective. What have you given us that is objective to indicate adding any of the trio the Giants made their #1, #2 and #3 priorities would have added enough wins for them to have won the division? By the way, Randy. The major league teams think analytics have value and are using them more and more. That you don't would seem to indicate that you're the one who doesn't get it. As an aside, you do realize that using your signature line to directly attack a group of people and indirectly attack one of our posters shows a tremendous amount of insecurity, don't you? If you don't think it shows insecurity on your part, simply erase it and remove the doubt. If what you say is true, what is the point in repeating it over and over and over and over again? That you seem to need constant reassurance does show a little doubt. Incidentally, pretty much anyone with a significant degree of intelligence can see that your statement is wrong. Why someone would want to put an untruth in their signature line is beyond me. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152/#ixzz3tcX0uRwb |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 7, 2015 3:40:11 GMT -5
Wow you just continue to show with every word you type just why the sig line is correct. There is no point at all in trying to explain something to you that doesn't involve numbers. Bottom line is the Giants did nothing last offseason and missed the playoffs. Maybe they would still have missed the playoffs even with Lester and/or Sandoval...but at least they would have DONE something to attempt to avoid it, rather than accepting the inevitable outcome
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 7, 2015 8:33:44 GMT -5
The Giants are heading into the winter meetings with a ton of money and have already made a splash, signing Jeff Samardzija right out from under the Dodgers noses, because they wanted him badly after losing Greinke. Yet one, (maybe two) posters have already labeled our off season a failure. All you can do is shake your head.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 7, 2015 21:02:32 GMT -5
this reminds me of liberals celebrating a decrease in the rate of increasing debt...both the Giants and Dodgers are getting worse...we may be slightly ahead of them but the other top teams in the league are breathing a sigh of relief at our "splash"
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 7, 2015 21:36:01 GMT -5
ok so now the Dodgers bullpen is shored up with Chapman added. By the way, KNBR is homering it up big time...you'd think the Giants just signed Nolan Ryan in his prime instead of Jeff Freakin Samardzija
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2015 22:44:54 GMT -5
Maybe they would still have missed the playoffs even with Lester and/or Sandoval...but at least they would have DONE something to attempt to avoid it, Rog -- If the Giants had signed Sandoval, it would have been a disaster so far, with an aging, out-of-shape ballplayer to look forward with. The Giants would have entered this winter with even more needs than they have now, and less money in the budget to deal with those needs. And they likely would have dropped out of the race before the last week of the season. You're behaving like a spoiled child. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152/#ixzz3thHSJR8t |
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2015 22:51:18 GMT -5
ok so now the Dodgers bullpen is shored up with Chapman added. Rog -- The key with Chapman is being able to sign him long-term. If I were the Dodgers, I'd put him in the rotation. He's too good to pitch so few innings IMO. I liked the Dodgers' signing of Iwakuma (as a baseball fan, not as a Giants fan). I liked the Cubs' signing of John Lackey. I didn't like the Samardzija signing. The Giants are putting a lot of faith in Dave Righetti. I think Dave is very good, but they seem to be expecting him to be a miracle worker. Bobby Evans has already mentioned changes in mechanics. The Giants know more than I, and they've been highly successful, so I'm not really in a position to be very critical. So far though, I'm not happy. John Heyman thinks the Giants will go big with an outfielder. He thinks it will be Cespedes or Upton, not Heyward or Zobrist. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152?page=1#ixzz3thIySwVW |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 7, 2015 22:58:50 GMT -5
Rog -- If the Giants had signed Sandoval, it would have been a disaster so far, with an aging, out-of-shape ballplayer to look forward with. The Giants would have entered this winter with even more needs than they have now, and less money in the budget to deal with those needs.
And they likely would have dropped out of the race before the last week of the season.
You're behaving like a spoiled child.
Dood - No, calling someone a child just because he disagrees with you is behaving like a child. I'm merely pointing out the truth. The Giants did nothing to help the team make the playoffs last year and even with all the extra money, the rotation still hasn't been improved and WONT be this offseason either, now that the best available FAs are signed.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 8, 2015 0:14:01 GMT -5
I agree with you, Randy, the Giants didn't do much to improve last season, but resigning Sandoval and signing Lester would have backfired on them. Not making a big move is better than making a big move that turns out bad. It's kind of like getting Beltran at the '11 trade deadline, the Giants made the big move but it backfired. If they knew what they know now they would have passed.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 8, 2015 0:59:12 GMT -5
But what good did it end up doing us, Boagie, if all we got out of the savings was Jeff Freakin Samardzija?
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 8, 2015 10:16:31 GMT -5
Bumgarner is pitching today and Samardzija tomorrow, right, Randy? What? It's early December? Oh. I read your post and thought the season was starting this afternoon.
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Post by Rog on Dec 8, 2015 10:30:26 GMT -5
No, calling someone a child just because he disagrees with you is behaving like a child. Rog -- I didn't call you a child, Randy. I said you were acting like one. It had nothing to do with your disagreeing with me. In fact, we do agree on the Jeff Samardzija signing. I'm hoping the Giants are right in figuring that Dave Righetti can help Jeff make the mechanical tweaks they feel he needs and that they're right about those tweaks. And they surely jumped on Samardzija immediately after they lost out on Greinke. But I feel they overpaid for a pitcher with such a high level of risk. What I said you were acting like a child about is that you have been spoiled by three World Championships in six years to the point where you expect the Giants to spend like there is no tomorrow -- even as they won those championships with aggressive but not unbridled spending. You're behaving like a child who isn't satisfied that his parents give him more candy than all the other kids but wants his candy NOW, not for dessert. Well, actually, you want it now AND for dessert. And you must have the most expensive brand. So we agree on the Giants' latest move -- but you're still acting as a child, whether we agree or not. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3152/#ixzz3tk896PB2 |
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Post by Rog on Dec 8, 2015 10:36:49 GMT -5
As I read these posts, it seem as if we're all ganging up on you, Randy. If I noticed it, you must be feeling it doubly.
So maybe it's time to sit back and reflect on the Giants' championships and how they won them. Not once did they sign a top free agent from outside. The closest they came was in re-signing Hunter Pence.
Now that we have the taste of all these championships, it's easy to get greedy. But it's still being greedy. Perhaps we should trust the Giants a little more and not try to tell them how to run their business.
Did you think before 2010 that they had made just the right moves and would win the World Series that year?
One other thing. You keep saying that the Giants are cheap, when virtually everything we read says just the opposite. I would rather have you disagree with me based on the facts than agree with me without them.
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Post by Rog on Dec 8, 2015 10:42:41 GMT -5
Parker and Williamson have solid, solid upsides!
Rog -- I have asked the question a couple of times as to which major leaguer has been a successful hitter despite striking out as often as Jarrett does. Without that answer, it seems to me it is hard to say that he has a solid, solid upside.
To help you in your search, Parker has struck out once every 2.9 at bats in the minors. Anyone who has struck out more than once every three at bats who has been successful? That list has got to be very short, and it may well be an empty pad of paper.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 8, 2015 11:02:43 GMT -5
Rog, I also posted that I thought Williams might have more upside than Parker.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 8, 2015 20:27:53 GMT -5
Rog -- I didn't call you a child, Randy. I said you were acting like one.
Dood - semantics
In fact, we do agree on the Jeff Samardzija signing. I'm hoping the Giants are right in figuring that Dave Righetti can help Jeff make the mechanical tweaks they feel he needs and that they're right about those tweaks.
Dood - and this is the crux of my problem. The Giants had the means and the opportunity to obtain one of four top tier pitchers for whom there was no need for hoping...no ambiguity...no tweaks needed. They failed and instead were forced to get yet another starting pitcher who comes with big question marks. Call that being a child if you like...my facts are unchallenged.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 8, 2015 20:40:55 GMT -5
As I read these posts, it seem as if we're all ganging up on you, Randy. If I noticed it, you must be feeling it doubly.
Dood - The majority isn't always right.
So maybe it's time to sit back and reflect on the Giants' championships and how they won them. Not once did they sign a top free agent from outside. The closest they came was in re-signing Hunter Pence.
Dood - situations change. The Giants will have to go on an epic failing binge in order to get a chance to hit the lotto with top picks like Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey once again. Yes they still pull out a few nuggets here and there but the old formula wont work like it did until they get high draft picks. They need to change with the times or they will get passed by.
Now that we have the taste of all these championships, it's easy to get greedy. But it's still being greedy. Perhaps we should trust the Giants a little more and not try to tell them how to run their business.
Dood - you call it being greedy and spoiled. I call it the cost of success...raised expectations. It's particularly the case when you don't have the excuse of being a low revenue team.
Did you think before 2010 that they had made just the right moves and would win the World Series that year?
Dood - irrelevant to today's situation
One other thing. You keep saying that the Giants are cheap, when virtually everything we read says just the opposite. I would rather have you disagree with me based on the facts than agree with me without them.
Dood - I see other teams, even Arizona, willing to shell out big bucks for a top pitcher. I see us getting Jeff Freakin Samardzija. What do you call that if not going cheap?
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Post by Rog on Dec 9, 2015 0:15:59 GMT -5
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