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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 5:35:37 GMT -5
From MLB Trade Rumors last night:
11:15pm: Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that a source close to the situation says Greinke will decide within the next 48 hours. Bowden adds that he expects Greinke to land a six-year deal worth $32MM annually, which would mean a $192MM total investment.
Rog -- Which brings us to the question: Is Greinke at 6/$192 million a good deal?
Some points:
. Greinke is not only one of the top pitchers in the game, he's one of the top pitchers in hitting and fielding as well.
. Greinke's 2015 season appears to have a significant element of luck. Greinke's 1.66 ERA was actually better than the 1.73 Sandy Koufax posted in his last season. But here are their marks in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is designed to take pitching luck out of the equation.
Fielding Independent Pitching -- Koufax 2.07, Greinke 2.76
Koufax isn't rated in the other measures also designed to take luck of the equation, but here are Greinke's marks:
xFIP 3.22
SIERRA 3.27
Greinke's Left On Base percentage of 86.5% was nearly a dozen points higher than his 74.9% career mark. Zack's FIP, xFIP and SIERRA were actually better in 2014 than last season. In 2014 he came in at 2.97, 2.72 and 2.87 compared to the aforementioned 2.76, 3.22 and 3.27 last season. Zack's Batting Average on Balls in Play was .229 in 2015, far better than his .298 career mark and his .311 in 2014.
Now, Greinke doesn't have to pitch anywhere close to a 1.66 ERA to justify his contract, but it may be important to consider that his contract will be heavily impacted by that 1.66 ERA. Jon Lester's 6/$155 was helped a great deal by his 2.46 ERA in 2014.
I'm wondering if Johnny Cueto's contract coming off a down season (3.44 ERA after marks of 2.31, 2.72, 2.82 and 2.25 the previous four seasons) might not be more reasonable than Greinke's. Both Cueto and Greinke rely a lot on their fielders. Last season Johnny's strikeout rate was 20.3%, while Zack's was 23.7%. Johnny's swinging strike rate was 10.0%, bested by Zack's 12.0%.
Bottom line: Would I rather have Greinke at 6/$192 or Cueto at 6/$150? With my analysis at its present state, I would take Greinke. Yesterday I would likely have gone with Cueto. As of this moment, I'd say Zack.
I'd like to see the Giants acquire a right-hitting outfielder, although I don't think it would be Alex Gordon. What I'd really like would be a guy who could play center field. I would look to sign Gregor Blanco for two years, buying one of his free agent seasons. It would likely take three years, and I'd consider that if the price were low enough. Remember, the Giants have only Hunter Pence as an experienced outfielder signed beyond next season. I might be willing to go with Mac Williamson in left field in 2017, but I'd like to see the Giants get a center fielder, and I would still look at Blanco as a 4th outfielder (although a very valuable one who could do some platooning with Williamson if necessary.).
Back to pitching, the Giants are said to have asked about the Braves' Julio Teheran, who had a down season in 2015. The Braves have 38-year-old A.J. Pierzynski as their catcher and could definitely use Andrew Susac. How much more would be required? I would throw in Blackburn or Heston, particularly the latter.
I really like Susac, but if Buster is going to continue to catch the vast majority of the time, Andrew would appear to be somewhat wasted. Meanwhile, Tehrean is only 24 years old and is signed through 2019 with an option for 2020. He has four years left on his 6/$32.4 contract, being owed $27.5 million over the next four seasons. With contact actually down against Teheran last season despite an ERA increase from 2.89 to 4.04, he looks attractive. His velocity also increased slightly last season.
An intriguing pitcher if a reasonable deal could be worked out. I suspect it would take one of the Giants' top pitching prospects rather than Heston or Blackburn to get the deal done, however.
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 5:45:27 GMT -5
Something that recommends Johnny Cueto is that in 2010 through 2012, he was 8th-best among starting pitchers in avoiding the center of the strike zone. I haven't seen any more recent figures, but I suspect he's been at least as good since. Cueto allowed batting averages of .253, .215 and .248 in 2010 through 2012, while limiting hitters to .206, .192 and .239 the past three seasons. Cueto has been REALLY hard to hit over the past five seasons.
I'm beginning to lean more toward Greinke, but I'm seeing some very good things about Cueto too.
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 5:59:09 GMT -5
Here's an intriguing stat: Johnny Cueto is the only pitcher with 10 or more starts who has an ERA lower than 3.00 in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
David Price just signed the richest pitching contract in history, and he doesn't have a single postseason win as a starter. Cueto had a very uneven postseason in 2015, but he did come up with two excellent wins.
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 6:04:19 GMT -5
Buster Olney wrote a day ago that the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Cardinals and Cubs — are “prepared to spend significant money on a starter.” The Red Sox just did so, so that leaves the Giants among the five teams remaining to spend significant money toward their rotation.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 2, 2015 11:07:27 GMT -5
48 more hours... after which time we see if we REALLY have a shot at the playoffs next year.
I'm a "glass 1/2 full" kind of guy, Rog, so UNTIL Greinke is inked, I'll be skeptical.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 13:44:43 GMT -5
48 more hours... after which time we see if we REALLY have a shot at the playoffs next year. I'm a "glass 1/2 full" kind of guy, Rog, so UNTIL Greinke is inked, I'll be skeptical. Rog -- A couple of things: First, I don't think it's that cut and dried. Signing Greinke would certainly seem to help the Giants' chances, but they would still have more work to do. Even if they do sign Zack, we should probably wait to see all the moves they make. Second, by remaining skeptical, aren't you actually describing yourself as a "cup half empty" guy? I'm going to look into it more deeply, but I might actually be happier with Cueto and Jayson Heyward than with Greinke and someone else. One nice thing about this off-season is that compared to last, there are many attractive options. If the Giants do sign Zack, I would think the Dodgers would be quite aggressive in going after Cueto. And possibly vice versa. It is also possible that the Giants plan to go after two 2nd-tier guys if they are unable to sign Zack. Sounds like we will know a fair amount more pretty soon now. I'm glad for that. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3144/long-wait#ixzz3tBp6DrzR |
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Post by Rog on Dec 2, 2015 15:47:25 GMT -5
Uh oh. Just saw that Zack Greinke has been involved in the Dodgers' draft day decision room the past two drafts. That doesn't sound like a guy who is leaving. The same article said that being the better team, the Giants don't need Greinke as much as the Dodgers do. With Jeff Samardzija's allegedly being offered $100 million though, I'm getting pretty worried about mining the 2nd tier. I certainly wouldn't pay $100 for Samardzija -- even with Dave Righetti as the Giants' pitching coach (although that does raise some intriguing thoughts).
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 3, 2015 0:38:00 GMT -5
The dominos are dropping fast, if Greinke doesn't make a decision by the end of tomorrow, I'd suggest the Giants look elsewhere. I'd love Greinke to be a Giant, but we can't be stuck waiting around like last off season. Greinke and his blood sucking agents keep upping the asking price, which means they got the Giants and Dodgers and perhaps another team bidding against each other. If that continues to be the game they want to play, the Giants need to bow out and focus on Cueto or a combination of Leake and another, also a left fielder, Ben Zobrist seems like good choice.
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Post by Rog on Dec 3, 2015 2:09:47 GMT -5
Read that Greinke and Yasiel Puig have had multiple altercations, so perhaps Zack would indeed like to get out of Dodge(rs). Lot's of conflicting signs, and the winning bid may range in at either 5/$165 or 6/$192. Those are hefty prices, although the 5-year contract seems much better, even though its annual value would be higher.
It indeed doesn't appear that the Giants were serious players for David Price, which surprises me. But they put a lot of trust in their scouts, and perhaps there are some metrics about David that I don't know of. Or maybe it's his lack of postseason success. I believe it was Boly who said he didn't think the Giants were serious about Price, and he appears to have been right.
I would be working both Greinke and Johnny Cueto simultaneously, and would also be ready to pivot as necessary as Boagie indicated. I may have made my point that I would go heavily after Jason Heyward, although who knows how high the market for him could explode. Generally speaking, the free agent market has been a bit more lucrative than expected. Heyward seems to be becoming a red-hot commodity.
Apparently the Indians wanted BOTH Brandon Belt and Joe Panik for Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is controlled for the next four seasons at just $22 million. That's too much to give up for Carrasco, but I would try to find some way to get him. The 28-year-old had a fabulous 10.6/9 K rate, a 2.1/9 BB rate, which resulted in a magnificent 5.0 K/BB rate.
Carrasco should provide one of the very best benefit/cost ratios among starters over the next four seasons. Panik is cost controlled for the next five seasons and Belt for two.
A bunch of reliever non-tenders should make relief pitchers a bit more affordable. Neftali Feliz is highly intriguing. It's been just three seasons since the 27-year-old was considered a top closer or even starter. He experienced arm troubles in the past, but threw at 94.6 MPH last season (which still resulted in only a 6.38 ERA).
There are many relievers out there now, from middle relievers to potential closers.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 3, 2015 10:40:38 GMT -5
Like I said earlier.
Not ONE top tier starter will be in a Giant uniform next year. Not one.
We'll settle for the likes of a Leake and a Pfister.
Way to go, management, way to go.
One of the BEST places to pitch in baseball.
3 World Series rings in the last 6 years.
An outstanding ballpark and an outstanding clubhouse and YOU can't close the deal.
Ya'all are, to paraphrase an old song, (and I say this sarcastically) a bunch of "smooth operators."
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 3, 2015 11:57:03 GMT -5
Boly- Not ONE top tier starter will be in a Giant uniform next year. Not one.
Boagie- What do you consider Bumgarner?
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 3, 2015 18:57:41 GMT -5
Good point, Boagie...but as we saw last year, there will be no playoffs on Bumgarner alone. The staff needs to be better...a LOT better. Without one of the top tier guys we'll need a WHOLE lotta unforeseen circumstances in order to be playing the second week of October (including, but not limited to, a huge rash of Dodger injuries).
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 3, 2015 19:02:02 GMT -5
Uh oh. Just saw that Zack Greinke has been involved in the Dodgers' draft day decision room the past two drafts. That doesn't sound like a guy who is leaving. The same article said that being the better team, the Giants don't need Greinke as much as the Dodgers do.
Dood - Two points...one, I fail to see how the Giants are so much better and yet have finished behind LA in 3 straight seasons. Two, if Greinke was so far "in" with LA, why wasn't he able to come to an agreement before opting for free agency? I think the author has some 'splaining to do.
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 2:57:33 GMT -5
Like I said earlier. Not ONE top tier starter will be in a Giant uniform next year. Not one. Rog -- There's an above-average chance that Madison Bumgarner will be. By the way, how many teams have two top-tier pitchers in their rotation? It's a pretty small number. As an aside, did you know that none of the top nine MLB teams in spending won even one postseason series in 2015? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3144/long-wait#ixzz3tKvAdiI4 |
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 3:00:30 GMT -5
Way to go, management, way to go. One of the BEST places to pitch in baseball. 3 World Series rings in the last 6 years. An outstanding ballpark and an outstanding clubhouse and YOU can't close the deal. Rog -- A priority check here. Would you rather have three World Series rings in six years, or close a big deal? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3144/long-wait?page=1#ixzz3tKwhczaO |
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 4, 2015 9:21:35 GMT -5
I agree with Dood here. The longer this takes, the more likely he's leaving the Dodgers. The incumbent team gets to negotiate sooner and if the player was happy there and his actual first choice, this should be done already. A story came out earlier in the week before Boston signed Price is that Greinke submitted a contract offer to the Red Sox and demanded an answer by the end of the night. They responded by signing Price. If he really wanted to stay a Dodger, wouldn't he have submitted that offer to them? The obvious theory here though, is that he's already made up his mind with either us or LA, and they're just negotiating the little things now before making the announcement.
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 10:41:00 GMT -5
Again, Mark, very good analysis.
If the Dodgers are willing to to 6/$210 for Greinke, I think it's all over, as it should be. But it's also sounding as if the Giants might be willing to go something like 5/$170 compared to the Dodgers' 6/$192. That would make Greinke's choice a little tougher, although if all other things were equal, I would take the 6/$192. $22 million extra for that one more year wouldn't be bad. Even if the Giants upped to 5/$175, the extra $17 million wouldn't be chump change.
I guess we'll know soon. I'm hoping the Giants aren't the team who signs Zack, but if they do, I'll be excited. Greinke is darn good. The questions are how long he can sustain it and if he's worth what seems likely to be the biggest per-year contract ever.
Signing Greinke would look very good today. How good would it look five or six years down the line? Speaking of five or six, it just might come down to whether the Giants are willing to go that sixth year.
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Post by Rog on Dec 4, 2015 10:53:56 GMT -5
By the way, Boly, we do know what you meant. You were obviously taking in addition to Bumgarner. We were just playing around.
With that in mind, why don't we look at past World Series champions.
2015 -- Kansas City. No true ace.
2014 -- San Francisco. One ace (Madison Bumgarner)
2013 -- Boston. No ace.
2012 -- San Francisco. Matt Cain was excellent. Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong were very good.
2011 -- St. Louis. No ace.
2010 -- San Francisco. Two aces (Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain)
2009 -- Yankees. One ace (CC Sabathia)
2008 -- Philadelphia. One ace (Cole Hamels)
2007 -- Boston. One ace (Josh Beckett)
2006 -- St. Louis (Chris Carpenter)
Taht's at most two World Champions in the past 10 years that had two aces. Is having two aces a pre-requisite for winning a World Championship?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 4, 2015 12:16:24 GMT -5
Once again Rog proves where his true allegiance lies...hoping the Giants miss out on the big prize and instead settle for the second rate guys so his Dodgers can once again dominate the division with two aces
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 4, 2015 12:28:08 GMT -5
With Greinke the Dodgers have won 3 straight divisions. Before Greinke the Giants won 2 of 3. It's pretty simple for both teams, get Greinke and win the division.
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 4:48:35 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 4:50:44 GMT -5
With Greinke the Dodgers have won 3 straight divisions. Before Greinke the Giants won 2 of 3. It's pretty simple for both teams, get Greinke and win the division. Rog -- It's not that simple. There are many other factors involved. There isn't really the cause and effect relationship you believe. Just because two things exist simultaneously doesn't mean one caused the other. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3144/long-wait?page=1#ixzz3tREwm6Vo |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 5, 2015 10:59:40 GMT -5
Boly- Not ONE top tier starter will be in a Giant uniform next year. Not one.
Boagie- What do you consider Bumgarner?
****boly says***
That's not what I meant, boagie, you know that.
Be fair. Be honest.
I was referring to Free Agent top arms.
Not last year, not this year.
boly
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 14:18:31 GMT -5
as we saw last year, there will be no playoffs on Bumgarner alone. Rog -- We saw that concept disproved in 2014, didn't we? All the Giants had at the end of the season was Bumgarner and Peavy. Yet they won it all. Last season they had more -- Mike Leake was added -- but didn't win. It's usually better to look at the broader picture rather than cherry pick to demonstrate a point. What one often demonstrates in that case is his lack of objectivity. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3144/long-wait#ixzz3tTXdjO6i |
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 5, 2015 14:25:08 GMT -5
Looking even broader at 2014, the Giants built a huge lead with contributions from a healthy Hudson and Cain along with Madison and lots of power from Posey (before he dudded out), Morse and Pence. The second half was awful but the team was BARELY able to hang on and in the playoffs, Madison was the only starting pitcher that was reliable after the LDS. That formula (Madison and 4 mediocres) doesn't work for a full season.
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 16:48:31 GMT -5
Looking even broader at 2014, the Giants built a huge lead with contributions from a healthy Hudson and Cain along with Madison and lots of power from Posey (before he dudded out), Morse and Pence. The second half was awful but the team was BARELY able to hang on and in the playoffs, Madison was the only starting pitcher that was reliable after the LDS. That formula (Madison and 4 mediocres) doesn't work for a full season. Rog -- Jake Peavy has been better than a mediocre pitcher. The Giants are hoping that Samardzija and whichever other pitcher they sign will be better than mediocre. They hope Cain will be more than mediocre. It seems likely the Giants will have at least three starters who are better than mediocre. As for what will work over a full season, we really don't know until it is completed. If they had stayed healthy last season, the Giants might well have made the playoffs despite their flaws. Remember, despite all the injuries and flaws, they still outscored their opposition by 69 runs. That was 9th-best in the majors and in fact was only 14 runs behind the World Champion Kansas City Royals. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3144/long-wait#ixzz3tU8H7Eq8 |
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Post by Rog on Dec 5, 2015 16:49:02 GMT -5
By the way, Randy, I truly liked that you took a broader look at the 2014 season. You made some good points.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 6, 2015 0:39:56 GMT -5
With Greinke the Dodgers have won 3 straight divisions. Before Greinke the Giants won 2 of 3. It's pretty simple for both teams, get Greinke and win the division.
Rog -- It's not that simple. There are many other factors involved. There isn't really the cause and effect relationship you believe. Just because two things exist simultaneously doesn't mean one caused the other.
Boagie- So each team wouldn't have immediately been considered the favorite if they landed Greinke? Sometimes I think you disagree just to disagree.
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Post by Rog on Dec 6, 2015 8:51:53 GMT -5
With Greinke the Dodgers have won 3 straight divisions. Before Greinke the Giants won 2 of 3. It's pretty simple for both teams, get Greinke and win the division. Rog -- It's not that simple. There are many other factors involved. There isn't really the cause and effect relationship you believe. Just because two things exist simultaneously doesn't mean one caused the other. Boagie- So each team wouldn't have immediately been considered the favorite if they landed Greinke? Sometimes I think you disagree just to disagree. Rog -- But Boagie, that isn't what you said. You didn't say the team that landed Greinke would immediately be considered the favorite. You said "It's pretty simple for both teams, get Greinke and win the division." And indeed it isn't that simple. Let's take the Dodgers for instance. If they had re-signed Greinke, they would have had a similar cast of characters as last season. The most notable difference would be having Corey Seager all season, which isn't a minor change but which likely isn't one that would cause the Dodgers to win by 10 games. The Giants' run differential was only three less than the Dodgers, meaning they were essentially equal teams. If the Dodgers re-signed Greinke, they were simply maintaining last year's pitching staff. The Giants still had close to $50 million to spend, meaning they still could improve substantially. The Dodgers' re-signing Greinke would simply have maintained the status quo. Greinke to the Dodgers wouldn't automatically have meant the Giants couldn't catch the Dodgers. There are just too many other factors at play. Anyway, I agree with your second statement -- but not with your first. Which is why I posted what I did. I wasn't simply disagreeing to disagree. I was making the point that your first statement went to far. I was simply trying to clarify the issue. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3144/long-wait#ixzz3tY2aG9Ym |
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 6, 2015 12:07:50 GMT -5
You were simply disagreeing to disagree, or you're just stupid.
Obviously my original statement can't be proven. Getting Greinke wouldn't have automatically sent that team through a worm hole to late September. Do you understand that, Rog? The Giants and Dodgers wouldn't survive a trip through a worm hole, and getting Greinke wouldn't summon one either. So I guess I'm wrong again?
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