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Post by Rog on Oct 16, 2015 23:14:08 GMT -5
Would we rather have say David Price for 7 years and Hisashi Iwakuma for 3, or have Jordan Zimmermann for 6 and Mike Leake for 5?
I'm ignoring the price for now. The issue I'm trying to get to is whether it would be better to take a long risk with a top starter and combine it with a short bet on a 2nd-tier guy, or to put a lot of eggs in a two long-term baskets with a lesser top-tier guy and a top 2nd-tier starter?
Is this the time to just suck it up and go long-term with two guys, essentially betting the long term on those guys being effective? Or would it be better take a slightly longer risk with very top guy and take a Peavy-like risk (for two years, but at more money) on the second guy, leaving an opportunity a couple of years from now to stagger the risk?
For that matter, how do we feel about having Peavy's contract come up at the end of the year? Perfect timing, or will the horses already be out of the barn this winter?
How do we feel about the Giants' being able to get away from Matt Cain's $20 million per season in two years? Is the timing good on that? His 2018 option is for a net $13.5 million, which right now looks like an option that wouldn't be exercised but which could change in the next two years. Matt just turned 31.
If the Giants went for Price and Iwakuma, they would have the following times of being able to get away from a particular pitcher:
One year -- Jake Peavy (who is 34)
Two years -- Matt Cain (31)
Three years -- Hisashi Iwakuma (34)
Four years with a possibility of three -- Madison Bumgarner (26). It certainly seems very unlikely that the Giants would want to get away from Madison, but a serious injury is almost always a consideration with long-term contracts.
Seven years -- David Price (30)
How about this one? Would we be willing to go an 8th season for the 30-year-old Price, and how much would we be willing to pay for that 8th year?
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Post by Islandboagie on Oct 17, 2015 0:35:56 GMT -5
Rog- Would we rather have say David Price for 7 years and Hisashi Iwakuma for 3, or have Jordan Zimmermann for 6 and Mike Leake for 5?
Boagie- The Giants shouldn't offer Price 7 years, or Zimmermann 6. Too long in my opinion. Maybe Greinke for 7 years.
Any interest in Yovani Gallardo?
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Post by Rog on Oct 17, 2015 1:27:45 GMT -5
The Giants shouldn't offer Price 7 years, or Zimmermann 6. Too long in my opinion. Maybe Greinke for 7 years. Rog -- They might have a shot at Zimmermann then, but not likely either of the top two guys. Unless they offered either of them 6/$200. Actually, Greinke is 31, so a 6-year pact might indeed get him. But the dollars would still have to be very high. As Bleacher Report said, Max Scherzer got a 7-year contract a year ago, and David has the longer track record. I pegged Price for 7/$215, and I would pay that much. Price and Greinke are a big step above Zimmermann. The only free agent pitcher who can be as good as the Big 2 is Johnny Cueto, and Johnny hasn't been as consistent. I like David the best of the bunch, and I'd be willing to go to 7/$215 to get him. Maybe even a little higher. Price and Bumgarner would be the best southpaw combo in the majors, and one of the best one-two punches period. I think the Giants can afford about $50 million in annual salary for two starters. That should be enough to get them Price and Leake. How about if they got Chen? That would give them the top southpaw TRIO in the game. I also would be fine with Hisashi Iwakuma. Regarding Price, his fastball increased its velocity by 1.0 mph last season. His strikeout rates the past two seasons have been the best two of his career. Likewise with his K/BB percentage. His walk rates the past three seasons have been easily his best. His hit and home run rates were the best of his career this past season. His first-pitch strike percentage has been better than two-thirds each of the past three seasons. Price led the AL in games started in 2011. In 2012 he led in winning percentage and ERA. He stumbled to a 3.33 ERA in "just" 186 innings in 2013, but rebounded with the most games started, the most innings pitched and the most strikeouts in 2014. This past season he led the AL in ERA. In other words, David Price -- already one of the best pitchers in the game -- has been getting BETTER. I want him -- as a starting pitcher that is! Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3091/long-short#ixzz3onoLthN1 |
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Post by Rog on Oct 17, 2015 1:37:11 GMT -5
Yovanni Gallardo is a good pitcher. He eats innings, and early in his career, he was one of my favorites. He has given up more hits than innings pitched in each of the last two seasons, and came within one hit of doing the same in 2013.
He was the best pitcher in the game in May and one of the best in August. There are other 2nd-tier starters I would prefer. Of course, it also comes down to contracts. I'm looking for VALUE, and if other teams underrate Yovani, he might just provide that value. But for me, he simply has never reached his considerable potential. I'm beginning to think I overrated it.
His strikeout and K/BB rates in 2015 were the lowest of his career. He may have passed his prime. Sad too. I really liked him at one time early in his career. Really liked him. He was a major league starter at age 21.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 17, 2015 10:12:24 GMT -5
If the Giants go the "I'm looking for value, " route, Rog, we'll be screwed... again.
Like Randy posted in another thread, we do NOT have a minor league stud like Lincecum or Cain waiting behind the curtain.
That being the case, we NEED one stud to pitch along side Bumgarner.
The Kershaw/Greinke one two punch was something teams dreaded to face.
We go "value" we don't have that.
I don't want to break the bank, and I've explained what I would do.
Give me:
Bum
Stud like Price/Zim
Leake
Cain
Peavy
And we're one of the teams to be WORRIED about.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 17, 2015 10:36:43 GMT -5
If the Giants go the "I'm looking for value, " route, Rog, we'll be screwed... again.
Dood - it's that kind of thinking that brought us 6-4-3 McGehee last offseason.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 17, 2015 15:18:08 GMT -5
And it's also that kind of thinking that brought back Vogelsong and Affeldt.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Oct 17, 2015 19:14:58 GMT -5
The reason for resigning Vogelsong wasn't about saving money, it was an insurance policy due to Cain and Hudson coming off surgeries. Why would you throw a bunch of money at a backup plan? Resigning Vogey was a smart move.
Affeldt wasn't cheap, 6 mil a year for a middle reliever is high. And that contract was made 3 years ago when he had a very nice season and postseason. He had a very nice season and post season in 2014 too. Infact, many talk about Bumgarner's relief appearance in game 7, but Affeldt was the one who stopped the Royals momentum early on in that game. Without him we may not have won the World Series.
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Post by Rog on Oct 18, 2015 7:12:07 GMT -5
Give me: Bum Stud like Price/Zim Leake Cain Peavy Rog -- Sorry to be redundant here, Boly, but you say give you that rotation, yet you have indicated that if you were the GM, you yourself wouldn't be willing to pay the price to do it. You think I'm the cheap one, but I WOULD pay the price unless it became totally extravagant instead of merely really, really extravagant. More importantly, I think the giants might be willing to do so too. But if they don't, how can you in good conscience criticize them for not doing something you have stated you wouldn't do either? By the way, I want Price. Zimmermann is very good, but I want Price. Although, and sorry to make a pun here, but it does depend in part on the price. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3091/long-short#ixzz3ov8XWClS |
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Post by Rog on Oct 18, 2015 7:16:58 GMT -5
And it's also that kind of thinking that brought back Vogelsong and Affeldt. Rog -- Jeremy was under contract a year ago. When they DID bring him back after the 2012 season at 3/$18, his ERA's the previous four seasons had been 1.73, 4.14, 2.63 and 2.70. Plus, his reputation was that he could get right-handed batters out as well as lefties. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3091/long-short?page=1#ixzz3ov9svX6p |
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Post by Rog on Oct 18, 2015 7:26:53 GMT -5
Your post about Vogelsong and Affeldt helped put things in proper perspective, Boagie. If one wants to look at existing and past contracts, simply go to Cotsbaseballcontracts.com and look for the Giants on the left-hand side. We may not want to criticize contracts when we don't really know what they are.
Of course, Cots doesn't show us the nuances of why the Giants re-signed Ryan Vogelsong, Boagie. Thanks for putting that into its proper perspective.
Regardless, getting Vogelsong at 1/$4 wasn't a bad contract. Ryan had posted a 4.00 ERA in 184.2 innings in 2014, and that type of performance is worth a heck of a lot more than $4 million. Ryan was AWFUL in April, but if we look at his season after that, it wasn't bad at all.
Here's something that surprised me. Ryan relieved 11 times this past season. What surprised me is that he finished six of them. Finishing 6 of 11 games is very unusual for a long man/middle reliever. By comparison, Yusmeiro Petit finished 15 of 41, and George Kontos finished 12 of 73.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 18, 2015 15:34:06 GMT -5
No, Rog, for the cost, Ryan was a bargain.
But that's not my point.
Why you continue to defend that signing is beyond me. I understand the rationale. But MY rationale is that we should NOT have been in that postiion in the first place!
I don't know any other way to say it.
For the last time, and I mean THE LAST TIME, I was not, am not and will not be happy with the conduct of the front office last season.
I do NOT want to see a repeat of the same nonsense this year, and I don't CARE what the reason was.
We need to up grade our starting pitching and NOT by just a little.
With that, I'm done with this discussion.
You know my position, and if you disagree, that's fine.
No one said we had to agree.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Oct 18, 2015 18:30:00 GMT -5
Boly!! I like you, I know Rog has a huge amount of respect for you, that's what makes your take on last off season so damn frustrating!
The Giants WANTED to do exactly what you and Randy wanted!!
They offered Pablo the money!! Pablo didn't want to be a Giant because the Giants wanted him to agree to a fat clause in his contract...What you saw this year in Boston is what happens when you don't play your cards with caution! The Giants were right! Pablo wanted to eat first, play baseball second, thus making him not worth the money he wanted!
Secondly, the Giants are said to have offered Lester $175 million!! If that's not being aggressive I don't know what is. In my opinion, Lester didn't want to join a defending world champion, he wanted to join a team that hasn't yet had the feel of a championship. Lester came out publicly and thanked the Giants for the interest.
Finally, James Shields. He said he had interest in being a Giant, yet he ended up signing for LESS than the Giants offered him. If the Giants made a mistake last off season it would be pulling out of the talks with Shields too early. But the result shows you just how in tune Sabean is to the value of the free agent market. He knew how much Shields was worth before Shields and his agent knew.
Mistakes were certainly made, but the two biggest mistakes were made by the players. Pablo made a mistake by thinking he didn't need structure, when it's clear he does. And Shields made a mistake by over-valuing his worth. The Giants avoided those mistakes, and played it smart.
I hope they continue to play it smart, and show caution. Maybe the players and agents will start to see that the Giants are a fair organization that pays its players what they're really worth.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 18, 2015 18:47:30 GMT -5
Boagie, no question you are right about Shields over estimating himself.
He did.
I would counter that he wasn't in the right environment, and that contributed to him being less than he was.
And you're right; they did offer big money to the big names out there. I've never said anything different. I've always agreed with everyone on that point.
But my problem begins with what was SAID:
It was stated that HAD THEY SIGNED Pablo, or either Shields or Lester, they wouldn't have any money left for other players.
And that's what drives me crazy.
Why try to sign ANY of those guys and THEN have no money left to get other players of any value to fill out the roster?
That makes no sense, so much so, that it makes me question there motives in the first place.
Were they just blowing smoke up our fannies like Pablo did when he claimed to the public, on the podium, that he wanted to be a Giant forever?
Ya'all can't have it both ways.
Either they had the money to sign one of those guys and still fill out a roster or they didn't.
So which is it? Which is the truth and which isn't?
Secondly, I refuse to believe there there no other options out there BETTER than Vogelsong and Peavy
Yes, in retrospect, Peavy turned out to be a steal; he has some gas left in the tank. But when the season began, it suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure didn't look that way.
So I'm sorry I'm frustrating you. I really am.
But do you understand where I'm coming from now?
I KNOW they tried to sign them.
I know they offered the money.
It was the other smoke they blew up my fanny, as stated above that still has me disturbed by what took place.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 18, 2015 20:52:57 GMT -5
I think what a lot of people fail to understand is there is far more to FA negotiation than just offering the money, and I do believe Brian Sabean's approach can be abrasive because there seems to have been a lot of FAs that rejected equal or more money from us to play elsewhere. With Pablo, the damage was done far before negotiations began and it's obvious that Sabean didn't make coming back seem attractive enough for the Panda. I don't know if the weight clause killed the deal but a palatable alternative could have been negotiated, I do believe. Perhaps something along the lines of this could have been offered..."ok Pablo, you do it your way for 2015, but if you don't meet X, Y and Z conditions (production-related), then a weight clause vests for the remainder of the deal."
As far as Lester goes. the pot definitely needed to be sweetened one way or other--either with money or other benefits--to offset the intangible advantages Chicago had over us. It's apparent some creativity was required and Sabean never recognized it.
If I were Baer, I would hire a FO executive that formerly worked as an agent a la Golden State Warriors GM Bob Myers.
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Post by Rog on Oct 19, 2015 0:57:37 GMT -5
It was stated that HAD THEY SIGNED Pablo, or either Shields or Lester, they wouldn't have any money left for other players. And that's what drives me crazy. Why try to sign ANY of those guys and THEN have no money left to get other players of any value to fill out the roster? Rog -- To the best of my knowledge, that hasn't been stated by anyone. The Giants spent more on an annual basis than they would have paid Pablo, Shields or Lester, so their actions indicate they themselves didn't believe that. I still think that you believe the Giants lied to you not because of what they actually said, but because of how you interpreted what they said. To the best of my knowledge, you haven't found the quote or quotes in which you felt they lied to us, have you? Here is part of how Bleacher Reports summed up the Giants' off-season: "It seemed that 'close-but-no-cigar' was the theme of the Giants’ offseason, as they explored what would’ve been very notable trades and signings for the likes of Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Torii Hunter, Ben Zobrist, Chris Johnson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chase Headley, Jed Lowrie, Nick Markakis, and some of Boston’s extra outfielders. They also fell short in the bidding for Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, who could’ve helped the club in either left or third. Timing seemed to be an issue on some of these non-moves; with the Giants not knowing until the Winter Meetings if they would land Lester, they couldn’t make other commitments until they knew if they’d need the $140-150MM they had earmarked for the ace southpaw. The Giants also made a strong push to re-sign Sandoval, though the Panda had reportedly made up his mind to leave San Francisco before last season even began. (His postseason hitting display was quite the parting gift.) McGehee’s 2014 stats were boosted by a .335 BABIP, and given Sandoval’s clear edge in career hitting totals, McGehee will likely fall well short of matching Sandoval’s production. Given how the Giants looked elsewhere for third basemen this winter, McGehee might just be a one-year stopgap until they can find a more long-term answer at the hot corner." Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3091/long-short#ixzz3ozRzgpB4 |
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Post by Islandboagie on Oct 19, 2015 1:35:14 GMT -5
I don't recall that ever being said, but hey..I have a hard time remembering what I had for breakfast.
If that WAS said, I believe what they meant was perhaps they wouldn't have been able to sign Peavy, Romo, Vogelsong, Aoki and McGehee. Or at least some of them. Aoki was a nice signing. Peavy was good when healthy, Romo was good during the second half, Vogelsong was decent, and McGehee was awful.
Aoki was the best signing of the bunch, but with his concussion issues even he wasn't as productive as we'd have hoped.
Again, I don't know if I'd have preferred Lester and Sandoval to those players, especially considering Duffy wouldn't have got the same chance with Pablo at third. In turn, Tomlinson probably wouldn't have been called up prior to September, or got nearly the same playing time.
We can argue whether or not the Giants would have fared better this season with Lester and Sandoval (I don't believe they would have) but there's no denying we're certainly better off going into next season with how things turned out.
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Post by rxmeister on Oct 19, 2015 8:24:34 GMT -5
You think the Giants would have still chased Lester if they would have signed Pablo? I really thought they only chased Lester because they had the money Pablo turned down. They wouldn't have spent for both because they're never that aggressive after winning the World Series. This offseason should and better be different. There's just too much talent in the Central division for the Giants to think their plan of sneaking in as the wild card is going to be successful. They're going to have to win the division and the Dodgers are better on paper and have won the division now by a fairly big margin three straight years. However I do think that adding two big starters is enough to win the division assuming they avoid the injury problems they had this year. Of course that's also assuming the Dodgers just re-sign Greinke and don't do anything else big themselves.
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Post by Islandboagie on Oct 19, 2015 10:41:41 GMT -5
Mark- You think the Giants would have still chased Lester if they would have signed Pablo?
Boagie- Probably not, but I'm not dealing with reality, I'm dealing with Randy.
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Post by Rog on Oct 19, 2015 15:13:53 GMT -5
Yes, in retrospect, Peavy turned out to be a steal; he has some gas left in the tank. But when the season began, it suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure didn't look that way. Rog -- I don't know that Peavy was a steal. He'll need to stay healthy and pitch very well in 2016 for that to be the case (I know you were being nice here, Boly, trying to go the extra mile), but if we look at how well he had pitched for the Giants in 2014, re-signing him when they couldn't land Lester or Shields was a fine move. They signed him for 2/$24, and that is the type of deal a team would prefer to make over the longer ones. Jake was excellent as a Giant in 2014, after not being very good at all for the Red Sox. He finished very strongly this past season too. The difficulty is that in order to sign one of the top free agents, teams have to stretch beyond what is probably prudent. In Jake's case, the Giants didn't have to do so to land him. Here's a good question that we can examine. How much difference does a top pitcher make to a team. In order to get an idea, let's look at Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner over the past two seasons. I'm not picking these guys randomly. It could just as easily be Price, Greinke and Zimmermann. But because of the Giants/Dodgers rivalry, let's just see how the first trio works out. In 2014 the Dodgers went 42-17 in games started by Kershaw and Greinke. At the rate they won for the rest of their pitchers, they would have gone 30-29. Kershaw and Greinke won and extra 12 games. In 2015 the Dodgers went 43-22 compared to 33-32. Kershaw and Greinke were worth an additional 10 wins, for a total of 22 between the two seasons. Meanwhile, the Giants went a combined 39-26 in Bumgarner's starts, compared to 32-31. That's an extra seven games. Yeah, you say, but those guys saved the bullpen too, and that has value. So let's see what kind of impact WAR gave to the "bullpen effect." Kershaw and Greinke posted combined WAR's of 29, meaning WAR implies 7 wins by aiding the bullpen. For Bumgarner, it works out to two games, for a total of 9 extra "bullpen" wins for the three pitchers, an average of 3 wins per pitcher over two seasons each. So with their pitching (hitting is not included), the three pitchers added 38 wins, or an average of more than six per season -- including the "bullpen effect." Without Kershaw and Greinke, the Dodgers would have been essentially a little below .500. Without Bumgarner, the Giants would have been about .500. Sounds reasonable, since Kershaw and Greinke combined would impact the Dodgers more than Bumgarner alone impacted the Giants. WAR keeps working out fairly decently. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/3091/long-short#ixzz3p1b1X77p |
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 19, 2015 17:05:22 GMT -5
For one year any way, Rog, Peavy was a steal.
When he was healthy, he pitched WELL!
As for next year, that remains to be seen.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 19, 2015 21:40:04 GMT -5
one problem though, Boly...he WASN'T healthy for 33% of the season...that takes him from a steal to a bust.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 19, 2015 21:42:05 GMT -5
Mark- You think the Giants would have still chased Lester if they would have signed Pablo?
Boagie- Probably not, but I'm not dealing with reality, I'm dealing with Randy.
Dood - the Giants made a statement that signing one of them wouldn't have precluded going after the other. Hard to believe? Maybe...but I didn't pull it out of thin air.
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Post by rxmeister on Oct 20, 2015 8:02:26 GMT -5
Hard to believe is putting it mildly.
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Post by Rog on Oct 20, 2015 13:13:06 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Oct 20, 2015 13:15:19 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Oct 20, 2015 13:16:23 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 20, 2015 13:20:13 GMT -5
one problem though, Boly...he WASN'T healthy for 33% of the season...that takes him from a steal to a bust.
Rog -- Was Joe Panik a bust? Hunter Pence? Those guys were busted, but they weren't a bust. There's a big difference.
Dood - I was talking about the signing of Peavy...it was not a steal at only 2/3 of a season.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 20, 2015 20:01:37 GMT -5
Randy, I call him a 'steal' because even with 1/2 a season out of him, we got more than our money's worth.
I hate to think how far into 3rd or 4th place we'd have been without him.
And he's SUCH a great influence on the young arms!
Can't under estimate that.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Oct 21, 2015 2:47:44 GMT -5
I think the Giants have plenty of pitchers for the youngsters to look up to. Lincecum has 2 Cy Youngs and led us to a World Series, Bumgarner is the greatest post season pitcher of all time, and Cain went the whole 2010 post season without giving up an earned run, and he pitched a perfect game in. Peavy doesn't have the luxury of using the seasoned veteran title to impress anyone.
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