How much will Ben Zobrist cost the Giants?

[sfgdood]

Boly -- IF we sign a LF... he'll be what Randy has been saying; "bottom of the barrel."

Rog -- How do we know that? The Giants have said they feel it will be easier to acquire the type of left fielder they are looking for via trade than via free agency. They have been linked with Ben Zobrist. We don't know if they will acquire him or not yet, but he is far from bottom of the barrel. In fact, if he were an apple, the Giants could bob for him.

Dood - whether Zobrist is the bottom of the barrel or merely mediocre is a matter for debate. Whichever it may be, the Giants either will pass on him or overpay to acquire him. If they pass on Ben, who else is out there who is above mediocre level? Now you can see why some people still are not seeing the half full side of the equation.

[klaiggeb]

Boly -- IF we sign a LF... he'll be what Randy has been saying; "bottom of the barrel."

Rog -- How do we know that? The Giants have said they feel it will be easier to acquire the type of left fielder they are looking for via trade than via free agency. They have been linked with Ben Zobrist. We don't know if they will acquire him or not yet, but he is far from bottom of the barrel.

---boly says--

do we know that for sure? Of course not, Rog. But I ask you; who's left?

And IF we make a trade, what's the cost?

Sorry, but Sabean's history is to go on the cheap and take chances.

It worked for Burrell, it worked for Huff, and to a point, it worked for Morse.

But those were risks.

I would rather have Zobrist than a lot of what's out there, but again, at what cost?

Susac and Crick? I'll pass.

They can have Crick and someone else, but not Andy the S.

boly

[Rog]

I ask you; who's left?

And IF we make a trade, what's the cost?

Sorry, but Sabean's history is to go on the cheap and take chances.

Boly -- It worked for Burrell, it worked for Huff, and to a point, it worked for Morse.

But those were risks.

Rog -- Risks which contributed to two of the three World Championships. We're looking for certainty, and even in the good years, it's seldom there.

Boly -- I would rather have Zobrist than a lot of what's out there, but again, at what cost?

Susac and Crick? I'll pass.

Rog -- Getting Ben Zobrist would be a coup. He's in a lot of demand, and the Giants have less on the prospect shelf than a lot of teams, so it will be very tough to accomplish.

We don't know what else is out there and what the cost would be. No question this will be a challenge for Brian Sabean, but also no question that he hasn't given up.

Why be fatalistic? I'm not saying not to be concerned. I'm simply saying that we had worries entering 2010, we had worries entering 2012, and we had worries entering 2014. If anything, we had FEWER worries entering 2011 and 2013, two seasons that didn't turn out nearly as well as the other three.

Yes, the Giants took risks. Yes, the Giants are taking risks again. But with no risks, there would have been no World Championships.

Let me ask you guys this question: Did you know that when the Giants traded for Jake Peavy, they were essentially putting themselves in the postseason? If not, how do you know they already haven't or won't make a similar move?

Suddenly we're talking about how worrisome and declining Jake is. Well, guess what? He was a lot more worrisome and declining when the Giants traded for him.

At the time of the trade, one could have reasonably said he was declining. He had slipped from 3.37 in 2012 to 4.17 in 2013 to 4.72 in 2014 at the time of the trade. How did that work out?

I'm not saying to ignore the negatives. I'm simply saying not to ignore the positives.




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[klaiggeb]

But for me, Rog the NEGATIVES far, far outweigh the positives for this season.

boly

[sfgdood]

Rog keeps wanting to tout this pitching staff but the bottom line is if the Giants go into the year with the rotation they have now, the only way other teams fear us is if they go on PAST reputations more than what the staff is capable of today. Is there hope for a good staff? Certainly there is. Is there hope for the dominance we had in the past? I would say no. And without that the offense needed more beefing up. The Giants are trying to get by with going cheap and I also think they are manipulating the fact that the titles in even numbered years is now a "thing" and that if they come up short this year they will just say "oh well, we have an even numbered year to actually put forth a real effort."

Ray Ratto, who I belittled here earlier, made a point I actually agree with. He said if the Giants really wanted Pablo back, they would have realized they needed to OUTBID the Sox, not merely hope to lure him back with a matching offer. Ray says Pablo was "obviously" hurt that he didn't get a Pence-like offer a year ago. I don't know if I agree with that but if the Giants thought that MIGHT be the case, they should have been prepared to either overpay to keep Pablo or not to bother negotiating because it wasn't going to happen.

[Rog]

El Duderino -- I also think they are manipulating the fact that the titles in even numbered years is now a "thing" and that if they come up short this year they will just say "oh well, we have an even numbered year to actually put forth a real effort."

Rog -- Pure speculation that isn't supported by much of anything. The Giants have already committed to $17 million more than last season, and I doubt they are done.

El Dooderino -- Ray Ratto, who I belittled here earlier, made a point I actually agree with. He said if the Giants really wanted Pablo back, they would have realized they needed to OUTBID the Sox, not merely hope to lure him back with a matching offer.

Rog -- If Pablo didn't want to play for the Giants, what was the point in bringing him back?

El Dooderino -- Ray says Pablo was "obviously" hurt that he didn't get a Pence-like offer a year ago.

Rog -- Think there's a lack of logic in that? Pence himself didn't get a "Pence-like" offer a year before his eligiblity for free agency.

El Dooderino -- I don't know if I agree with that but if the Giants thought that MIGHT be the case, they should have been prepared to either overpay to keep Pablo or not to bother negotiating because it wasn't going to happen.

Rog -- If you're going to have to overpay your player to retain him and you have given a qualifying offer that will get you a draft pick in return, it probably makes sense to pass.

You've never said, Dooderino, how you would have filled the Giants' other needs after paying him -- based on your comment here -- something like $21 million per season. That might have left the Giants $9 million to fill the starter, set up man and left field roles. You're the guy who is decrying the Giants for going to the bargain basement. Given the likely budget, your plan would have clearly driven them there.

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[sfgdood]

I've said from Day 1 that if you're not looking for quality, you can wait as long as you want for mediocrity, and the Giants are showing that as we type. My plan was to get Pablo back and also bring in a top rated starting pitcher...and then pick off the leftovers plate for a LF and a RP, although bully arms could also be found in the system. Those that say we can't afford that are simply not thinking creatively. It's very easy to structure a contract (or 2) to pay more in years where flexibility exists. To bring back Pablo and (say) Lester, the Giants could have low-ended the first year to fit the 2015 budget, and then up the antes starting in 2016 when the contracts of Lincecum, Hudson and Scutaro come of the books (and some others too maybe)...and also the annual payroll increase will ease those burdens past 2015. Not to mention, near the ends of those Pablo/Lester deals, the debt service would be a thing of the past.

I'm not even as smart--supposedly--as those guys in the Front Office and I could think of this. Those "smarter" guys should be able to think of this or maybe something even better. But instead wed get McGehee at 3rd, Peavy back and Blanco in LF.

[Rog]

El Dooderino -- Rog keeps wanting to tout this pitching staff

Rog -- I'm not touting the pitching staff so much as trying to be realistic about it. Yes, if all the pieces come together, it could be pretty darn good. At the other end of the spectrum, it could struggle mightily.

I have stated that I don't think it is as good as either the Nationals' and the Dodgers' pitching, and those are two formidable foes for the Giants.

On balance, I think the rotation is likely average or a bit above. Even the bullpen may not be as strong as Washington's, but unless it collapses, it should be very good.

Dooderino, you seem to keep having to overstate and/or misrepresent my position and Mark's. I will say this though. You are right that I keep wanting to tout the Giants' pitching. It's just that they aren't quite good enough for me to truly do so.

The bullpen I could tout. The rotation, not so much. I will comment that it should be nice to have Matt Cain back, and the reports on Tim Lincecum's winter training (including working with a personal trainer) are encouraging.

It's also certainly possible neither one will have a good season. What we've seen from Matt in recent years should give us optimism. What we've seen from Tim in recent years should give us concern.

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[Rog]

El Dooderino -- My plan was to get Pablo back and also bring in a top rated starting pitcher.

Rog -- Hey, if money were no object, my plan would be to get Pablo back and bring in Max Scherzer. But money IS an object, and just with those two players you likely overshot the Giants' budget by close to $20 million -- while leaving left field open and not adding or bringing back a top reliever.

There was nothing at all wrong with your plan. It simply wasn't realistic.

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[Rog]

El Dooderino -- I'm not even as smart--supposedly--as those guys in the Front Office and I could think of this. Those "smarter" guys should be able to think of this or maybe something even better. But instead wed get McGehee at 3rd, Peavy back and Blanco in LF.

Rog -- Your ideas, as far as they go, are MUCH better than the Giants'. But you and they aren't playing on a level playing field. They're limited by a budget, while clearly you choose not to be.

I'm disappointed though that since money was no object, you didn't go BEYOND Pablo and a top starter.

Hey, here's something you might like. There is likely close to an even chance that Jake Peavy's ERA this season will be better than at least one of the top three free agent pitchers. Especially if Bruce Bochy severely limits Jake's exposure after two times through the lineup.

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[Rog]

El Dooderino -- To bring back Pablo and (say) Lester, the Giants could have low-ended the first year to fit the 2015 budget, and then up the antes starting in 2016 when the contracts of Lincecum, Hudson and Scutaro come of the books (and some others too maybe)...and also the annual payroll increase will ease those burdens past 2015.

Rog -- Good points, Dooderino. They do raise some issues though.

Yes, the Giants could have low balled the first year to fit the 2015 budget, but in order to do so, they would have left no money for left field or the bullpen. Perhaps worse, they would have then owed Pablo and Lester about $245 million for the final four years and final five years of Pablo's and Lester's contracts.

$245 million is quite a lot to spend on the 2nd through 5th year of one contract and the 2nd through 6th season of the other.

As for using the money saved by not re-signing Lincecum, Hudson, Scutaro and Affeldt a year from now, that would save about $42 million. Let's say the Giants raise their payroll by another $20 million, meaning an extra $62 million would be available for payroll.

Let's say Pablo and Lester use up about $30 million more than Peavy and McGehee. That's almost half the amount. Let's suppose the pay increases already built in for current players increases it another $20 million. That would leave about $12 million to fill two rotation spots, left field and a reliever spot.

Can you say the BOTTOM of the bargain basement?

What would your plan be then, Dooderino?

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