A Hypothetical

[klaiggeb]

---Rog Says--- But those moves don't significatly help out this season. So what would YOU (group you, not individual you) do?

---boly says---

I don't think there's any "one" answer that would fit all scenarios, but actually, I do have an idea of what I would do, especially in light of the TV deal the Giants have just signed.

1-Maintaining an outstanding farm system would be my # 1 priority. I would follow Tampa Bay's model; put a lot of money into scouting and player personnel

2-I would continue to follow the plan Sabean has in place; if I HAVE players I love, (ie. Pence, Posey) I lock them up as soon as I can.

3-I would look at each year as a separate entity. By that I mean, I would not necessarily be a big FA player each year. I would be very selective. For example. Let's say that Pagan had gotten so badly hurt last year, his career, though not over, would no longer be close to his previous level.

*In this scenario,I need/must have a long term solution. This past off season, that would mean I WANT Ellsbury, or a player like him, and so I become a serious, FA player.

4-I avoid the international market as much as I can. I DON'T roll the dice and 'hope for the best.' We're never going to have a budget like LA or the Yankees, so I don't take crazy risks like the Giants would have had to do for Tanaka. And a $50 million posting fee is a crazy risk

*As I posted a couple of weeks back, the ULTIMATE cost for the Yankees to get him is over 250 MILLION dollars! That's nuts with our budget, and would limit other guys I could sign.

*Here's my thing;

a-we DON'T know if his success in Japan will translate in MLB

b-he's a pitcher, and I'm NOT risking that kind of money with the frequency of arm injuries for pitchers today. We don't have to go too far to find guys like Josh Johnson, and to a lesser extent, our Timmy, who literal 'flame out' too soon

c-I never, EVER forget Oswaldo Fernandez, and how THAT turned out for us.

d-IF I'm going to be a player in FA, it's more than likely going to be for a bat, not an arm. Not that I wouldn't sign an arm if I had a HUGE need, and a guy like Price was there, it's just that I think we can do better developing them in house, as we have done, and seemingly continue to do.

Anyway, that's my plan

boly

[sfgdood]

Randy -- As for Rog's faulty memory, my suggestion was to lighten payroll by trading useless players

Rog -- Unless you're specific about which players you would trade away to reach the $25 million, this is a non-answer. How much money do you think "useless" players command? And if they do command much, why would other teams pay for overpaid, useless players?

Dood - the signing of Tanaka would immediately render one of the starters useless (or at least not essential). The obvious first choice would be Vogelsong. As to others, it depends on how the season goes. If Scutaro gets off to another rough start and/or gets hurt again, he could be a possibility. If the bullpen depth looks solid, maybe Affeldt could be deemed expendable. If Gary Brown starts hitting like he did in San Jose, maybe they feel like Angel can be dealt. There are other possibilities...there's almost always a match to be found with other teams if you put in the effort.

[Rog]

Boly -- 1-Maintaining an outstanding farm system would be my # 1 priority. I would follow Tampa Bay's model; put a lot of money into scouting and player personnel

2-I would continue to follow the plan Sabean has in place; if I HAVE players I love, (ie. Pence, Posey) I lock them up as soon as I can.

3-I would look at each year as a separate entity. By that I mean, I would not necessarily be a big FA player each year. I would be very selective. For example. Let's say that Pagan had gotten so badly hurt last year, his career, though not over, would no longer be close to his previous level.

*In this scenario,I need/must have a long term solution. This past off season, that would mean I WANT Ellsbury, or a player like him, and so I become a serious, FA player.

4-I avoid the international market as much as I can. I DON'T roll the dice and 'hope for the best.' We're never going to have a budget like LA or the Yankees, so I don't take crazy risks like the Giants would have had to do for Tanaka. And a $50 million posting fee is a crazy risk

*As I posted a couple of weeks back, the ULTIMATE cost for the Yankees to get him is over 250 MILLION dollars! That's nuts with our budget, and would limit other guys I could sign.

*Here's my thing;

a-we DON'T know if his success in Japan will translate in MLB

b-he's a pitcher, and I'm NOT risking that kind of money with the frequency of arm injuries for pitchers today. We don't have to go too far to find guys like Josh Johnson, and to a lesser extent, our Timmy, who literal 'flame out' too soon

c-I never, EVER forget Oswaldo Fernandez, and how THAT turned out for us.

d-IF I'm going to be a player in FA, it's more than likely going to be for a bat, not an arm. Not that I wouldn't sign an arm if I had a HUGE need, and a guy like Price was there, it's just that I think we can do better developing them in house, as we have done, and seemingly continue to do.

Anyway, that's my plan

Rog -- I like this plan a lot, although I would quibble on one area. I wouldn't ignore the international markt. No question some big gambles have been take there, but many intenational players have not only panned out, they've become stars.

The one thing I will say about the international market -- and this supports your position there -- is that it has become very expensive. Two years ago the Giants could theoretically have signed Yasiel Puig for less than $50 million. Even if they now felt he didn't fit, they could trade him for a fortune in players.

The Giants apparently were serious players this winter for the slugging Cuban first baseman Abreu. He may become quite a hitting star, but the move would have weakened the Giants at two different positions (first base and left field). The Giants likely stretched out their commitment as far as would have been prudent for a player they wouldn't be able to use as a designated hitter as an American League team would. They have stretched it longer than was prudent.

I don't know enough about Abreu to know how successful he will be. My point is that he wasn't as good a FIT for the Giants are he likely was for some other teams.

Tanaka was a tough case because of the uncertainty of whether he would even become available. I dont know enough about him to know if he will be successful here, but I suspect he will be. Many other Asian pitchers have been.

I think your ideas in particular of building up drafting and development are very good ones. I do differ in that I would keep an open mind regarding international players.

I also would be looking more to develop or trade for bats as opposed to acquiring them through free agency. I would certainly be open to acquiring bats through free agency, but I think the Giants would often have to overpay to attract a good bat to a pitchers' park. On the other hand, pitching is a highly attractive commodity. I would try to use it to TRADE for bats -- to the extent I couldn't develop them on my own.

We talk about the Giants' drafting pitchers, and indeed they have done a very nice job of that, right down to the very young but talented minor league pitchers they now possess (including a clever trade for Edwin Escobar), but we shouldn't overlook that the Giants have nicely filled catcher, first base, shortstop and third base from within.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2180/hypothetical#page=2#ixzz2sT0r3jfQ

[klaiggeb]

---Rog --- I like this plan a lot, although I would quibble on one area. I wouldn't ignore the international markt.

---boly says---

Rog, I didn't say I would ignore the market entirely. What I said was, and I quote; "I avoid the international market as much as I can."

I also followed that up with my desire not to chase pitchers on the International market.

Hitters... that might be different.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- Rog, I didn't say I would ignore the market entirely. What I said was, and I quote; "I avoid the international market as much as I can."



I also followed that up with my desire not to chase pitchers on the International market.



Hitters... that might be different.



Rog -- I would pursue ALL markets. I'm not sure, by the way, but I think the success of international PITCHERS may be higher than international HITTERS, at least of late. Or maybe they're both pretty high.



I would simply go after talent wherever I could find it. The price of talent is going up quickly.







Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2180/hypothetical#page=2#ixzz2sc4kBQH4

[klaiggeb]

I would simply go after talent wherever I could find it. The price of talent is going up quickly.

boly says----

Rog, it's not their talent I question.

I have a problem with ridiculous posting fees, and making too much out of a player that hasn't done ANYTHING in the major leagues yet.

I really don't give a rip about how a guy does in Cuba, or Japan, or on Jupiter, for that matter.

I wouldn't pay the money so many of them are asking when they've proven NOTHING more than any top flight draft choice has.

boly

[Rog]

Rog -- I would simply go after talent wherever I could find it. The price of talent is going up quickly.

boly says----

Rog, it's not their talent I question.

I have a problem with ridiculous posting fees, and making too much out of a player that hasn't done ANYTHING in the major leagues yet.

Rog -- With the exception of Daisuke Matsuzaka, who succumbed to serious arm problems, I can't think of any highly-priced international free agents of late who haven't performed pretty well. I'm sure there are a few others, but Daisuke is the only one who comes to mind.

On the other hand, I know of at least four international pitchers who had pretty good seasons in 2013. Three of them -- Isashi Iwakuma, Hyun-jin Rya and Yu Darvish -- had ERA's of 3.00 or lower. Hideki Kuroda's ERA was below 3.00 for most of the season.

If you take another look at this opportunity, I think you will see that despite the unproven nature of the international free agents, overall they've proven to be pretty good buys. As I mentioned, the window opening is getting smaller and smaller, as because of the success of guys like the ones I mentioned, their prices are going up.

Do you think the Rangers will get more for their money with Yu Darvish, or the Angels with Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton? No question the latter two were way, way, WAY more proven. Pujols might have been the best player in the game, and Hamilton was also a former MVP. Darvish hadn't thrown a pitch in the bigs.

Which of the three players would you rather have now? Tiny, tiny, TINY sample, but hopefully you get the point. I think an open mind here -- no negative, pre-conceived notions -- is a good idea. It's been a long time since Osvaldo Hernandez, who succumbed to arm problems but who didn't really cost that much. The Japanese infielder/outfielder Tanaka was a bust for the Giants last season, but he cost almost nothing.

You know how much the Giants paid Fernandez on his initial three-year contract -- including bonus? Less than $3 million. Had he not become injured, he likely would have been worth more -- possibly much more.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2183/ops#ixzz2seVMAceJ

[Rog]

Add Anibal Sanchez to the list of 2013 3.00 ERA or below international free agent pitchers Sanchez was signed much, much younger and for much, much less, so he's in a different sub-category. Throw in Bartolo Colon, and five of the 13 qualifying pitchers with ERA's of 3.00 or below were international free agents.

Are we beginning to see the viability of the international free agent market? So are the teams, which is why the bargains are mostly gone. We never gave much of a chance to a very viable window that is now closing from a cost standpoint.