Winter meetings rumblings

[rxmeister]

Meetings start Monday, but Hank Schulman is already saying he expects the Giants to leave them with an outfielder. Sabean is playing down expectations as usual, but other GM's are telling him that Sabean is in active discussions. Hank also believes if the Giants are unable to trade for anyone, they're very interested in Mike Morse as a free agent.

[sharksrog]

Morse is complementary to Gregor Blanco in several ways. He's powerful, slow and a right-handed hitter. He hit in the .290's from 2010 through 2012, with 64 homers, but fell off badly last season (.215 with a .651 OPS.

He has very little platoon split, and he is being viewed more and more as a first baseman rather than a left fielder. Mores strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much. He made $6.75 million last season, but only $3.25 million in 2012.

Intriguing. Reward potential fairly high. Was last season simply a fluke? Probably not entirely, but might be worth a shot at the right price. Big gamble.

[Islandboagie]

I think you summed that up perfectly, Rog. It would probably be an upgrade over a Torres Blanco platoon, but it would be nice to find a player with at least an ounce of plate discipline. We already have Pence and Pablo swinging away on every pitch.

[rxmeister]

Morse supposedly played most of the season with a wrist problem and after the season he had it surgically repaired. To me he's an option when most others have fallen through. Brett Gardner is supposedly available and I'd try to pry him loose from the Yankees.

[sharksrog]

Gardner sounds like a good idea to me. He could play center field. He gets on base. I believe Allen first suggested him, a year or two ago.

If Morse's problems were with his wrist, that explains them. As Boly has pointed out to us though, wrists can take a long time to heal. They can also take a long time to heel, given all the bones that connect in between. I would write this in code, but it would take even longer.

[allenreed]

I wouldn't mind Gardner, though I don't think he's really what we need, and especially not at the price of a starting pitcher, which is what the Yankees are said to be asking. Which of our starters would you give up for Gardner? Timmy has a no trade clause, no?
I was told by someone here that Morse has a PED past. If we're going to chuck our morals, why not go for Nelson Cruz?

[sharksrog]

Allen -- I was told by someone here that Morse has a PED past. If we're going to chuck our morals, why not go for Nelson Cruz?

Rog -- Might not be a bad idea, but I suspect Nelson will be pretty pricey.


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[allenreed]

Me? I'm not going for any PED guys, so I wouldn't want either one.

Up early, turned on Hot Stove on baseball network. Ken Rosenthal has shoulders like a woman. Their big story is the alleged mess in the Seattle front office. Rosenthal seems to think it's a big deal that it was so bad that guys like Eric Wedge were willing to go on the record with it. Harold Reynolds downplayed it, sayinhg it was true to a certain extent even when he was with the Mariners.

[rxmeister]

Mike Morse's PED past is kind of sketchy. It happened back in 2005 when he was 22 and he claimed he actually took the PED's back in 2003. Back then the penalties were different. He was a minor leaguer and he was suspended for ten days. I think he can be forgiven for a mistake made when he was 20, but to be honest with you, the guy is still huge, and if I wondered about him when he was with the Nationals, I should wonder about it if the Giants signed him.

[allenreed]

I wasn't aware of it at all. I mentiond Morse as a possible acquisition last season and someone here brought it up. After the Bonds debacle, I'm just hesitant to get involved with anyone who has even the taint of that crap on them. How is this guy as an outfielder?

[Islandboagie]

The talk has been to acquire a left fielder via trade. To me the outfield free agent options are decent, but we keep hearing from the Giants that the market is thin. When I hear this I think Sabean has his eye on someone and is already actively talking to that team.

What is unarguably thin is our farm system, so why is trading a better option than signing a FA when its obvious after the Pence and Lincecum deals that they have plenty of money to spend?

I think Ibanez would be a perfectly good fit and they could easily have him with a 1 year contract. Many other options are also available that would fit the Giants needs.

So again, to me, Sabean is already actively persuing the player he wants. We haven't heard who that player is, or what team he's talking to, so I think he's keeping it top, top secret because it might be a game changer in the NL West. Sabean would also only deal for a guy who was under control for a lengthy period, and someone who was relatively inexpensive. And since its gone under the radar it would be a team that the mainstream analysts don't follow.

Of course I could just be making this all up in my head.

Then again, Mike Stanton would be a game changer. He isn't a free agent until 2017 and considering he's up for arbitration this year the Marlins might want to get him off the books. Just a thought.

[allenreed]

No telling what you'd have to give for Stanton. Then you have to pay him.

[klaiggeb]

Morse supposedly played most of the season with a wrist problem and after the season he had it surgically repaired. To me he's an option when most others have fallen through. Brett Gardner is supposedly available and I'd try to pry him loose from the Yankees.

---boly says---

I read what you said, Mark; that Morse had been hurt most of last year.

I think he's a low risk option.

Gardner? I've not seen him play, but strictly looking at his numbers, other than the fact that he's LH, I like what I see.

Certainly better in the 1 hole than Pagan in OBP.

And what, a couple of years ago he swiped 49 bases?

You know THAT catches my eye.

boly

[allenreed]

I've seen Brett play alot, and he's good at what he does, but he's limited. I just don't see has as the layer Pagan is. He can steal. He can play defense. Arm is not that great.His key is he charges the ball so hard he's almost to the infield when he gets it, making for a shorter throw. But he gets hurt alot, and goes into long slumps and at AT&T will have almost zero power. I thought last year was his best year. He's also coming to the point in his career where he'll have to get paid.
I think Gardner would be a dynamite leadoff guy on a team with power. Unfortunately, that's not us. He would have been great on the Bonds/Kent/Burks clubs.
For some reason this reminds me of a special I saw on HBO recently, which had people on it talking about sports and different players, and why sports are so important to us. Anywho, they interviewed Billy Bob Thornton, of all people. His idol was Bob Gibson, and they showed film of Gibson drilling Jim Ray Hart.

[allenreed]

Phillies are said to be shopping Dominic Brown. Lefty though. Just throwing it out there.

[allenreed]

Mark DeRosa is on Baseball Network as an analyst. Not too bad, but you can tell he's really nervous.

[rxmeister]

Joel Sherman of the NY Post is reporting that the Giants are very interested in Brett Gardner but he doesn't think there's a match there, although it's not impossible. Others have reported their interest on Morse and Corey Hart, but at this point their asking prices are a little high.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- What is unarguably thin is our farm system, so why is trading a better option than signing a FA when its obvious after the Pence and Lincecum deals that they have plenty of money to spend?

Rog -- We know from the Pence, Lincecum AND Hudson deals that the Giants had money to spend. What we don't know from those deals is how much they have left to spend.

Boagie -- I think Ibanez would be a perfectly good fit and they could easily have him with a 1 year contract.

Rog -- If Ibanez were a right-handed hitter, I could see the possiblities. He could start against southpaws, and Greg Blanco could come in for defensive purposes. Blanco could start against righties, and Ibanez could pinch hit for him when a right was brought in or a home run was needed.

But Ibanez hits lefty, as does Blanco, and he's a horrible fielder whose best position is DH. Raul has decent power (68 homers in the past three seasons), but the past season he has hit only about .242 and has gotten on base at barely a 30% clip.

Because he makes so many outs and is such a horrible fielder, his WAR last season was just 0.4. Because Blanco is an excellent fielder and didn't make as many outs, he was rated at two wins more.

One can certainly argue with the accuracy of WAR, but when there is that much difference between two players, it's hard to argue that the lower one is much if any better.

Ibanez hit southpaws OK last season, but in 2012 he had only a .492 OPS against them. The year before that, his OPS against lefties was .582. Coupled with very poor fielding, is that really the kind of guy we want playing left field in AT&T Park?

As for the other guys you would like, I'm certainly open to discussion. I just don't think Ibanez is the man.

Many other options are also available that would fit the Giants needs.


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[rxmeister]

The Giants have no surplus major league talent to trade other than Hector Sanchez, so any teams looking for a player they can plug right in in exchange for a left fielder are not going to have a match with the Giants. And from what I've seen so far, other teams aren't interested in Sanchez either. The Giants might be forced to go free agent in LF, or even very cheap, with the thought that teams ARE willing to exchange talent for prospects in July when they're out of it.

[allenreed]

Watching on Baseball Channel. Boring. No deals so far except Rajai Davis signing with Detroit. These guys are having real trouble filling the time.

[sharksrog]

Mark -- The Giants have no surplus major league talent to trade other than Hector Sanchez, so any teams looking for a player they can plug right in in exchange for a left fielder are not going to have a match with the Giants.

Rog -- Good point. I do think the Giants could afford to include Gregor Blanco if the trade were for a bona fide starting left fielder. But as you point out, that would still leave them with a lack of depth in the OF.

Mark -- And from what I've seen so far, other teams aren't interested in Sanchez either.

Rog -- I'm not a huge fan of Hector, but if I were a team with a weak starting catcher and wanted a guy who could back up but might soon be capable of starting, I would have interest in the 24-year-old.

Mark -- The Giants might be forced to go free agent in LF, or even very cheap, with the thought that teams ARE willing to exchange talent for prospects in July when they're out of it.

Rog -- Intriguing point here. The Giants are saying they will likely trade for a left fielder and have implied that it will be only a platoon partner for Blanco. That tells us both that they aren't willing to give up much in the way of their prospects and that they don't feel there is much in the bargain basement of free agents that is capable of providing a good platoon with Blanco.

The Giants are no doubt exploring all opportunities and still hoping beyond hope that they can find a player of true starting caliber. I wouldn't be opposed to their trading one of their pitching prospects for an outfield prospect of similar caliber who might be able to come up to the majors as the season goes on.

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[sfgdood]

I wouldnt be opposed to including the White Shark (Blanco) in a trade for a fulltime left fielder because although they may not have a lot in Fresno in terms of guys ready to start, they do have a few that can fill in as a 4th or 5th outfielder reasonably well.

In terms of Hector, the guy can hit, and if you're a catcher who can hit, you are special. Teams will want that.

The Giants likely have at least 3 lists of guys they might want. One list of guys they will go after in the offseason who they consider an everyday guy, one list of guys they will go after that are more of a platoon fit with Gregor and one list of guys they feel might be available via trade midseason.

~Dood

[klaiggeb]

In terms of Hector, the guy can hit, and if you're a catcher who can hit, you are special. Teams will want that.

---boly says---


Totally agree, Randy. Totally.

As a defender, Sanchez is average.

Then again, so are a lot of catchers out there now starting for teams.

I think he has upside for 'someone.' Not a lot, but likely better than what they currently have.

If we're looking for a Blanco-New Guy platoon, maybe Sanchez and someone else could get that.

boly

[allenreed]

With the acquisition of Adam Eaton the White Sox may have a surplus of outfilders. Alejandro de Aza and Dayan Viciedo are said to be available. Viciedo is a righty that doesn't get on base enough yet, but he's only 24. De Aza is a lefty and probably the better player at least at this point. He tried to be a power hitter last year, and his other numbers suffered a bit. Neither make a ton of money, and either would be at least an offensive improvement over Blanco, at least from a power standpoint.
I watch the Sox alot because I enjoy Hawk Harrelson, and I always thought de Aza was a pretty good player. Viciedo has some growing to do yet, but has potential.

[rxmeister]

If teams want Hector Sanchez, why haven't we heard any trade rumors about him whatsoever? Do you think the Giants have deemed him untouchable with Posey on the roster and Susac coming on rapidly?

[sharksrog]

Randy -- I wouldnt be opposed to including the White Shark (Blanco) in a trade for a fulltime left fielder because although they may not have a lot in Fresno in terms of guys ready to start, they do have a few that can fill in as a 4th or 5th outfielder reasonably well.

Rog -- I wouldn't be unwilling to trade him either, since I would rather have a weakness at 4th outfielder than at starting left fielder. As for the Giants' having outfielders who can fill in as the 4th or 5th outfielder, I think no one has shown he would fill in as a 4th outfielder reasonably well, and I feel only Juan Perez has shown a likelihood of being a 5th outfielder.

Perez had only a .650 OPS, but he seems to be an excellent outfielder who can play any of the three positions proficiently. He is also a capable base runner.

I would say that if Juan can play at the level he's playing in the Dominican Winter League (.298/.360 /.355/.716 with 11 steals in 15 attempts), he'd make a pretty good 4th outfielder. But players usually hit higher in the DWL than they hit in the majors.

On the other hand, it's a lot easier to acquire a 4th outfielder (as the Giants would need to do if they traded Blanco) than a starting left fielder.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Then again, Mike Stanton would be a game changer. He isn't a free agent until 2017 and considering he's up for arbitration this year the Marlins might want to get him off the books. Just a thought.

Rog -- Cleary Stanton would make a wonderful acquisition, and he would be affordable for a while. But I doubt very much the Giants would be willing to part with what it would take to get him. The talk would START with Kyle Crick and move on to a couple or three prospects from there.

Would you give up say Crick, Escobar, Arroyo, Sanchez and Hembree? I don't think the Giants would do so, and I suspect it would take close to that to beat out the other team who would crave Giancarlo.


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[sharksrog]

Allen -- they showed film of Gibson drilling Jim Ray Hart.

Rog -- I was there and had seen Jimmy play perhaps 20 games before. The serious injury occurred in the 2nd game of his major league career, in the 2nd game of a Sunday double header, after Jimmy went 2 for 5 in the first game, which I believe the Giants won in about 12 innings.

Here is what was even worse. When Jimmy came back a couple of months later, he got beaned by Curt Simmons after playing just a few more games. What a way to start a career!

By the way, I don't actually know the above, since I'm not a true Giants fan.

Oh, wait. Let me look it up.

The Giants did win Jimmy's first game, 4-3, in 15 innings. Jimmy did indeed go 2 for 5. He was hit by Gibby in his first plate appearance in the 2nd game.

He came back a little sooner than I thought, just a month and five days. He played in five more games before being beaned by Simmons. The sad thing is that the Giants lost that game 13-0.

So in that first season, Jimmy got hit twice in 25 plate appearances. And each injury put him on the disabled list.

So how had I already seen Jimmy play 20 games (actually, probably more like 15) before I saw the double header in which Jimmy got plunked by Gibson, Randy? Much as I fear giving you a clue related to the Dodgers, the clue I can give you concerns where Matt Kemp was born.

The information I just gave you is plenty to figure this one out. Allen's pretty good at stuff like this, so I'll challenge him -- or anyone else here -- to come up with the answer.

Allen's very good at this, so I'm going to guess it takes him about three minutes to figure this one out. I have actually posted the answer here before, but I wouldn't expect anyone to remember.

Show me how good you are, Allen. And give it a shot yourself, Randy. Any true Giants fan shouldn't have a problem.

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[allenreed]

I must have misread, but I didn't pick up what we were trying to figure out.

[sharksrog]

Allen -- I just don't see has as the layer Pagan is.

Rog -- They're somewhat different, but because of his defense and base stealing, Brett might actually be the better of the two.

In 2900 plate appearances, Pagan has built a WAR of 17. In 2200 plate appearances, Gardner has earned 19.

Pagan has been better at the plate. Gardner has the higher OBP, but not as much power. In the field, the advantage seems to be Gardner, who might displace Pagan in center field. Both have been good base stealers, but Gardner has been slightly the better of the two.

He doesn't complement Gregor Blanco, but I like Gardner. I don't know how much it would take to get him, but I think he would be a very nice addition.

The one change I see with Gardner is that last season he became a more aggressive hitter with more power but less ability to get on base. He began hitting more line drives and fly balls, which is a positive.

His stolen bases were only half what they had been in 2010 and 2011 (2012 was an injury season), his success percentage was down, and he grounded into a career-high 8 double plays despite hitting fewer ground balls. He did lead the AL with a career-high 10 triples, but I still suspect he has lost some speed. Allen should be able to address that issue.

I have a feeling Gardner is a bit underrated, and if the price is right, I would like him as an additon to the Giants' outfield. Perhaps Allen can address what the Yankees' needs are, and we could see how they match up with what the Giants have to trade.

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