Offseason plan

[sfgdood]

It seems to me we can forget about the Giants making any kind of big splash in the FA market. I think they want to lock up their guys and maybe shore up the reserves in case injuries beset the team again. The one position I thought they might have tried to do something with was left field and let's just say the options aren't great. The idea of going after Ellsbury and putting Angel in LF is a nice notion but I doubt it's feasible. Jacoby likes Boston and will like it even better as a WS champion, if the Sox beat the Cards.

So we can expect some small pieces to come here for our bench and maybe the bullpen but if I had to guess, the Giants will pretty much stand pat. They will rely on:

Posey and Panda getting in better shape this offseason so they can deliver more consistently...

Pagan and Scutaro being healthy enough to regain their potent top of the order form...

Hunter Pence being Hunter Pence again...

Belt continuing his consistency at the plate (and hopefully with more power)...

better overall team defense...

and they are relying on extra rest this offseason helping the pitching get back to its normal standard.

They would be happy with all that and they hope, but arent counting on, Brandon Crawford finally putting things together for a full year. The reason they MUST rely on all these things is because they have no chance of luring any big name bats to AT&T Park and they blew whatever chance the had of getting international hitters, even losing one to the hated Dodgers, ugh!

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Randy -- So we can expect some small pieces to come here for our bench and maybe the bullpen but if I had to guess, the Giants will pretty much stand pat.

Rog -- That is pretty much the opposite of what Bobby Evans said after Tim was signed.

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[sfgdood]

Yeah...Bobby Evans also said the Giants were going to be big players in the international market. All talk, no action.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Randy -- Belt continuing his consistency at the plate (and hopefully with more power)...

Rog -- No question it would be wonderful if Brandon DOES hit with more power, but it might be prudent to note that his 1.67 bases per hit trailied only Hunter Pence's 1.71 on the Giants.

I think Brandon's 1.67 was pretty good. Roberto Clemente's career mark was 1.50, which means that last season Brandon had four extra bases to every three for Roberto. Not all that meaningful given the very small sample, but it is probably worthy of note that Brandon's .345 batting average over the season's final two months was 28 points higher than Roberto's career mark and higher than Roberto's batting average in all but three of Roberto's 18 seasons.

You and I both had very high projections for Brandon when he first came up, Randy. It will be intriguing to see how close he can come to reaching them.

Brandon's 2nd half was about what I was expecting from him to begin with. His fine second half was based on a .392 BABIP though, and that isn't going to continue. Brandon will need to cut down on his strikeouts and -- as you suggest -- hit with a little more power, to reach my original projections.

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[rxmeister]

Rog, I missed Bobby Evans comments. What did he say?

[Islandboagie]

Yeah...Bobby Evans also said the Giants were going to be big players in the international market. All talk, no action.

~Dood

Boagie- You do realize it's only October 24th don't you, Randy?

[rxmeister]

You're right, Boagie, but Randy's complaint about the international market is correct. The two big Cubans have signed already, and despite showing big time interest in terms of scouting the players, the Giants came up empty. Do you think for a second they'll be the highest bidder for Tanaka? A couple of minor signings of players of dubious distinction is not what we expected when we heard they were getting into the international market.

[allenreed]

Didn't they sign a Tanaka last year, and then eventually let him go?

[Islandboagie]

Sounds like some of you guys have Puig envy.

The Giants signed one of the top international prospects in 2012. They just haven't shelled out tons of money to international free agents.

Instead, they've focused on drafting and developing, which hasn't worked out too poorly for them. But you wouldn't be able to tell that by some of the posts here.

[klaiggeb]

Instead, they've focused on drafting and developing, which hasn't worked out too poorly for them.

---boly says---

I agree with you, Boagie. In fact, I would go so far as to say that I PREFER developing in-house talent, rather than taking a chance on stars from other countries who may or may not work out.

In addition to that, when you "grow your own," your organization can teach them "their way," rather than getting in a player with already established habits.

One of the BIGGEST problems with Puig, as I heard Mattingly say the other day, was that he was successful doing it "his" way for so long, that he sees/saw no reason to change.

He didn't have to learn the little things because he was so much better than everyone else it didn't matter.

But in MLB the little things ARE important. So inspite of his great talent, Puig will often do things to cause more problems in game, or do things to lose games, than is really necessary.

Also, he's the exception, not the rule.

I'm not willing to risk a our medium payrole team taking a flyer, (rolling the dice), on a veteran who may or may not work out.

Again, I'd rather grow my own; which the Giants are doing.

boly

[sfgdood]

Boly...growing your own should always be going on...but Bobby Evans made a huge point to say that the Giants would be a player on the international FA market. He wasn't talking about finding young kids and training them here. He was talking about established vets that could help out right away. The Giants failed to do that.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Mark -- You're right, Boagie, but Randy's complaint about the international market is correct. The two big Cubans have signed already, and despite showing big time interest in terms of scouting the players, the Giants came up empty.

Rog -- How big the Giants have been in the international market I don't know. I do know that they have frequently been mentioned as players, but certainly the results aren't evident yet.

On the other hand, perhaps we should give them the benefit of the doubt. How may big-time international players have been signed this off-season? I know of two. Are there any others?

There are 30 teams. That means a team could be a legitimate player in the market if it signs one out of 30 players. We're saying that because the Giants haven't signed either of the TWO that they're not legitimate players?

We don't have enough information to know, do we?

I see no reason yet to disbelieve them. Does anyone else here see a valid reason for doubting them?

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[sharksrog]

Randy -- He was talking about established vets that could help out right away. The Giants failed to do that.

Rog -- Isn't there a difference between saying you will legitimately TRY to accomplish something and saying you WILL accomplish it? Did the Giants ever say they WOULD acquire one of the top international players?

When I used to listen to Brian Sabean, I was surprised at how open he seemed to be and how often a trade would be made that showed he followed through. I have at least that same feeling now with Bobby Evans.

At this point I have no valid reason to disbelieve the Giants when they say they are trying to become legitimate players on the international market. I'm wondering why others feel differently. I'm just not seeing the appropriate evidence for me to agree with those others.


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[sfgdood]

Rog -- Isn't there a difference between saying you will legitimately TRY to accomplish something and saying you WILL accomplish it? Did the Giants ever say they WOULD acquire one of the top international players?

Dood - what kind of wishy washy crap is that? "Oh, we're sorry we finished 30 games out of first place but we sure gave it our best try!" If all you're going to do is TRY, then don't say anything at all. Put up or shut up.

~Dood

[sfgdood]

Rog - At this point I have no valid reason to disbelieve the Giants when they say they are trying to become legitimate players on the international market. I'm wondering why others feel differently. I'm just not seeing the appropriate evidence for me to agree with those others.

Dood - I'm not seeing legitimate reason to believe they will do anything different than they always have. They never have been able to snag any big talent international star and so until they show me differently by actually doing it (not just "trying"), I will continue to believe Bobby Evans was full of crap when he made that statement.

~Dood

[rxmeister]

Rog, maybe they will sign international talent before the offseason is over, but that's not the point. The point were that there were three elite guys and they already lost out on two and won't get the most expensive one either. If they sign some kid who hit .190 for Cuba are you and Bobby Evans going to then say , "Told you so!" That's like signing Eli Whiteside and Ryan Theriot and telling your fans to buy season tickets because you've made a free agent commitment.

[sharksrog]

Mark -- Rog, maybe they will sign international talent before the offseason is over, but that's not the point. The point were that there were three elite guys and they already lost out on two and won't get the most expensive one either. If they sign some kid who hit .190 for Cuba are you and Bobby Evans going to then say , "Told you so!" That's like signing Eli Whiteside and Ryan Theriot and telling your fans to buy season tickets because you've made a free agent commitment.

Rog -- I don't think whether the Giants are serious players in the international market is contingent on their signing a high-level player, although clearly it would be difficult for them to do so unless they truly are.

But they can be serious players without making a signing this winter, can't they? There aren't very many such high-level international players who are available, and there are many teams chasing them.

Wouldn't it be kind of like demanding that a couple get pregnant to illustrate they are seriously trying to have a baby? Does a minor league player have to make the majors to illustrate he is seriously trying to make them?

The reports have had the Giants as major players in the Abreu and Gurrero availabilities, and the Giants have said they are going to be serious players. Why would we doubt them?

The signs indicate the Giants are being active and/or aggressive on several fronts.

Must they sign an American free agent to show they are pursuing that area?

Must they make a trade to show they're exploring trades?

Must they make Gary Brown their starting left fielder to show they're exploring internal options?

With all of three high-level international free agents available, isn't it an unreasonable burden of proof to require that they be successful in signing one of them to be considered a serious player -- especially when the reports indicate they are indeed serious players?

I'm quite encouraged by what I'm seeing and hearing from the Giants. It appears they are trying to accomplish a LOT of things this winter, and Bobby Evans has said that a lot of changes will be made. Their supposed interest in McCann would indicate a seriousness in that direction.

The Giants have said their top two priorities this winter were re-signing Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum. By making pre-emptive strikes and spending a lot of money, they have accomplished both. Now they say they are moving on to Javier Lopez, a left fielder and other unspecified tasks.

If someone here wants to continue to think the Giants don't do (or at least attempt to do) what they say and are liars, have at it. But I personally am getting excited by what I'm seeing as arguably the most aggressive Giants stance in quite a while.

There IS one thing Brian Sabean said that I don't think is going to come true. He said the Giants' payroll would be about the same as this year. I think it is going to be quite a bit more. I doubt that Brian was lying to us, so that may mean the organization has expanded the purse strings.

Let me ask you this: What are the reasons NOT to be optimistic at this point? Someone here said that all the Giants needed to do was have certain players perform as expected and remain healthy. I'm not sure it's quite that simple.

But it appears to me that the Giants are trying to keep what they view as the most important pieces they were in danger of losing, and Bobby Evans has now stated they will be valuing assets for free agents (he didn't specify internationally, and that market is drying up for now), trades, and internal solutions. Should we really expect more?

When is the last time the Giants have been this aggressive this early? My suggestion would be to listen to what they say. It just might come to pass.

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[sharksrog]

Regarding the international scene, the Giants are one of five teams who watched pitcher Odrisamer Despaigne work out in Spain. Despaigne is 26, and fashioned a 2.58 ERA in Cuba this past season. He is expected to stage a more formal workout in Mexico. Despaigne isn't Tanaka, but it sounds like he's a serious international player, one who could pitch in the majors soon. Despaigne has the same agent as Yasiel Puig.

The Giants were listed as significant players for Abreu and Guerrero, even though signing Guerrero would have meant moving as many as three players to fill out the team positionally. Abreu was considered more of a DH than a first baseman, and indeed signed in the American League.

One correction I would like to make to something I posted earlier. Yubaldo Jimenez's $8 million option was voided when he was traded by the Rockies to the Indians, so he will indeed be eligible for free agency. Jimenez is intruiging. If the Giants signed him, they would have two pitchers (the other being Tim Lincecum) who have fallen from the top of the mountain to much lower foothills.

Now, if the Giants don't make significant moves this winter, I'll be disappointed. Very disappointed. But I think they are going to make a LOT of moves for what would seem to be a team with few significant openings (perhaps one starter and a left fielder). When next season begins, I think we'll see between five and 10 new faces or players the Giants could have lost to free agency or not brought up from the minors.

With Pence and Lincecum, we'll see at least two. Heath Hembree seems a lock. But those guys aren't outsiders. I bet we'll see close to five or six of them -- and at least a couple will be significant players, likely three or more, depending on one's definition.

Let's see where the count stands when next season opens. I have to say that I'm having a hard time coming up with which present players won't be back, but I'll bet it's more than we expect.

And I just don't see how the Giants can achieve their goals without spending a lot of money. I think they should satisfy us in that regard.

[sfgdood]

I think we'll see between five and 10 new faces or players the Giants could have lost to free agency or not brought up from the minors.

Dood - that seems highly UNlikely to me. We could indeed see some new faces but most likely the team will try to go cheap instead of spend money. That is their history...

~Dood

[rxmeister]

Evans did say yesterday that the Giants still have some financial flexibility and will use it on the rotation. I'm thinking they're going to be realistic and realize that they are going to have to increase payroll to compete. Based on what I've read I think they'll attempt to sign one of the major free agent starters out there but then scrimp a bit to fill the hole in left field.

[sharksrog]

Mark -- Evans did say yesterday that the Giants still have some financial flexibility and will use it on the rotation. I'm thinking they're going to be realistic and realize that they are going to have to increase payroll to compete. Based on what I've read I think they'll attempt to sign one of the major free agent starters out there but then scrimp a bit to fill the hole in left field.

Rog -- That seems to make a lot of sense. I think the Giants will wind up trading for one of those positions. If they can sign one of the top starters, I would think they would trade for a left fielder. If they miss on the starters, they would trade for a rotation piece instead.

If they are able to sign free agents for both, the names of Bronson Arroyo and Mike Morse have come up. Morse is a power hitter who has played both first base and the outfield. The 6-foot-5, 240 pounder doesn't run well, but he has even started 50 games at shortstop.

In 2011, Morse batted .303 and hit 31 homers. Injuries have limited him the past two seasons, and last year he hit only .215 with 13 home runs. In both 2010 and 2011, he was the type of hitter the Giants are looking for. In addition to his lack of speed and his decline at the plate, he's a right-handed power hitter, with the Giants said to be looking for a lefty power bat.

Perhaps the talk about the Giants' possibly signing Brian McCann doesn't make sense, but it might also be a Plan B where if the Giants are unable to sign one of the top pitchers, they would sign McCann and then try to package Hector Sanchez and one or two of the Class A starters for a rotation piece. A team looking to build might be attracted to the young Sanchez and the youthful starters or starters.

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[sharksrog]

Rog -- I think we'll see between five and 10 new faces or players the Giants could have lost to free agency or not brought up from the minors.

Dood - that seems highly UNlikely to me. We could indeed see some new faces but most likely the team will try to go cheap instead of spend money. That is their history...

Rog -- I would argue with you on this one if you said unlikely, but when you say "highly UNlikely," I think you're overreacting or didn't read the definition well. The Giants could reach five who meet the definition simply by re-signing Lopez and Vogelsong, promoting Hembree, and add that trio to the already re-signed Lincecum and Pence.

In other words, it would be possible for them to reach the threshhold of five without even signing someone from outside. That's why I say five to 10. Ten would be a stretch, but it isn't impossible.

So far the count is at only two, but the night is metaphorically young.


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[sharksrog]

Rog -- Isn't there a difference between saying you will legitimately TRY to accomplish something and saying you WILL accomplish it? Did the Giants ever say they WOULD acquire one of the top international players?

Dood - what kind of wishy washy crap is that? "Oh, we're sorry we finished 30 games out of first place but we sure gave it our best try!"


Rog -- The Giants aren't going to finish 30 games out of first.

Randy -- If all you're going to do is TRY, then don't say anything at all. Put up or shut up.

Rog -- Aren't you the guy who says the Giants lie to us? By saying they are entering the (big time) international market, they're being very open with us.

Personally, I don't think the Giants lie to us. I do think that plans can change. The Giants sell out every game. They have built tremendous good will. How would they benefit from lying to those loyal fans?

If I were you, Randy, I would at least wait to see what the Giants do over the winter before criticizing. If you are unhappy with the team they put on the field to start next season, that would seem to be the time to criticize.

Otherwise, as you say, put up or shut up. You're criticizing something that doesn't yet exist, or at least isn't apparent and completed.


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[rxmeister]

Speculating stops five days after the World Series ends, and that could be tomorrow. There has been talk about a change in the posting process with Japanese players, and this could help the Giants in signing Tanaka. Instead of the top bidder getting him automatically, he would be free to negotiate with any of the top three high bidders. If the Giants are one of the top three, San Francisco's proximity to Japan gives them a clear advantage over the big market eastern teams, not to mention the pitcher friendly ballpark and the large Asian community.

[sharksrog]

Informative post, Mark. Thanks.

[rxmeister]

Maybe not so informative Rog, as I learned this morning. Apparently Tanaka is hoping to be a Yankee or Dodger. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

[sharksrog]

Mark -- Apparently Tanaka is hoping to be a Yankee or Dodger. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

Rog -- Is Tanaka hoping to sign with one of those teams because of a preference for those teams -- or because he thinks they will offer him the most money?

Personally I think he ought to be able to play for whatever team he chooses, but more often than not, money seems to be the deciding factor.

[allenreed]

You'd know more about NY than I, but LA also has a very large Asian population.

[sfgdood]

Rog -- Aren't you the guy who says the Giants lie to us?

Dood - I don't say the Giants always lie to us. They don't always tell us what they are going to do. They have lied at times and this international market thing seems to be a major whopper at this point.




By saying they are entering the (big time) international market, they're being very open with us.

Dood - how do you figure? They havent signed anyone.




Personally, I don't think the Giants lie to us. I do think that plans can change.

Dood - Oh so they just decided to stop being active in pursuing big international talent? That may or may not be considered a lie, but it sure as heck shows their word is very dubious.




The Giants sell out every game. They have built tremendous good will. How would they benefit from lying to those loyal fans?

Dood - because now the Dodgers have changed the playing field. We can't continue to play the same way, do the same things and expect the same results. If the Giants don't change their ways, and continue to come up short of expectations, the gooodwill will disappear.




If I were you, Randy, I would at least wait to see what the Giants do over the winter before criticizing. If you are unhappy with the team they put on the field to start next season, that would seem to be the time to criticize.Otherwise, as you say, put up or shut up. You're criticizing something that doesn't yet exist, or at least isn't apparent and completed.


Dood - why do I have to wait? This is an opinions based message board. Do I have to wait to give my opinions here? Why do you make predictions/projections before the seasons start? Why not wait and see what happens?

In terms of what I was specifically criticizing--not coming through on big international signings--I have proven to be right on the money. The Giants missed out on the two big names and they would seem to be a heavy underdog on the one that remains.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Dood - I don't say the Giants always lie to us. They don't always tell us what they are going to do. They have lied at times and this international market thing seems to be a major whopper at this point.

Rog -- Actually, it doesn't. The Giants are said to have offered Abreu about the same annual salary as the victorious White Sox did, but they were unwilling to go six years for a guy who likely will be a DH by then. I don't think it's coincidental that an AL team landed Abreu.

Your point that the Giants aren't serious about the international market until they land someone is kind of like saying that a team isn't serious about winning the World Series until it does so.

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