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Post by sharksrog on Sept 19, 2013 9:53:13 GMT -5
Last night a simple explanation of why RBI's are overrated jumped into my head (and clearly, that didn't take much of a leap).  RBI's show only one side of the story. They don't show RBI's MISSED. A batting average shows opportunities missed. Since they are a counting stat as opposed to a rate stat, RBI's don't. |
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Post by allenreed on Sept 19, 2013 13:46:53 GMT -5
Here's one. The broadcasters gave Pablo's avg. with runners in scoring position last night. I can't remember the exact number, but it was very good. Yet it seems to me that Pablo just leaves megatons of runners on base. In fact after they gave the average, he promptly hit into an inning ending double play with the bases loaded.
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Post by Islandboagie on Sept 19, 2013 14:19:40 GMT -5
This is why a straight percentage of RBI chances missed doesn't make sense. Pablo grounding into a double play to end the inning is a bigger disappointment than someone striking out with the bases loaded and two outs, but in the end the stats would show them as equal disappointments. I don't blame the guy who doesn't get those runs home with two outs, I blame the guys who can't get them home with 1 or no outs. I don't know the numbers, but I'd gather Posey is the best on the team at getting a runner home from 3rd with less than two outs (with a significant amount of at bats of course.) Pence is probably good at it too because when he's hot he's very good at driving in runs. Unfortunately for Pence, when he's cold, he's completely useless. So, with that in mind, Pence's overall stats really mean nothing to me because he's not that player, he's the extreme on both ends of those stats depending on if he's hot or cold. When Pence is cold do I want him up there in RBI situation? Hell no! Do I want him up there when he's hot? You bet your ass I do.
Posey on the other hand, I don't think it matters nearly as much. Like all ballplayers Posey too can slump, but in an RBI situation I still have faith he can battle the pitcher and get a pitch to hit.
Belt, Pence and Pablo look foolish in those situations when they aren't going well. At times, I'd honestly rather see Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner at the plate. I have never had that thought about Posey and I probably never will.
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 19, 2013 22:16:45 GMT -5
Boagie -- This is why a straight percentage of RBI chances missed doesn't make sense. Pablo grounding into a double play to end the inning is a bigger disappointment than someone striking out with the bases loaded and two outs, but in the end the stats would show them as equal disappointments. Rog -- I think you might be falling into the Don Kuritzky syndrome of using isolated exceptions to try to invalidate a general rule. First of all, depending on the situation, making the final out of an inning with the bases loaded and two outs could be pretty devastating in the final inning of a one-run game. That might be worse than grounding into a double play with no outs and runners on first and second bases, since in that situation, there would still be a runner on third with two outs, and the inning wouldn't be over. But now I'm using isolated exceptions to your isolated exceptions, which doesn't make a lot of sense. Ideally we would analyze every RBI possiblity situation and make a judgment play by play. But do you really want to take the time to do that? It's pretty easy to find the number of runners on base and in scoring position and compare the number of RBI's to each of them. Not a perfect way of evaluating a batter's RBI ability, but much better than merely looking at the NUMBER of RBI's. The methodolgy I'm suggesting takes only a minute or so to find, and it is a big improvement over simply the number of RBI's. It's not as good as going situation by situation. But to me, the rewards seem pretty good compared to the cost in time. In a couple of minutes (including calculations), you can probably come up with a better evaluation of a hitter's RBI's than I can get from merely looking at his NUMBER of RBI's. Who would have thought that Marco Scutaro with only 31 RBI's this season might be doing a better job of driving in runs than Hunter Pence did last season. By the way, you realize, don't you, that in salary negotiations, Hunter's agent would focus on the 104 RBI's, while the Giants would focus on the number of runners NOT driven in. This becomes even more important in arbitration hearings, which don't result in compromise, but rather which side the arbitrator feels has made the better case. Generally, the more we know about something, the better prepared we are to analyze and evaluate it. Percentage of runners driven in and runners in scoring position driven in give us an added level of information beyond simply the NUMBER of RBI's -- and the calculations can be made very quickly. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#15115#ixzz2fOlq0Qfa |
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 19, 2013 22:27:25 GMT -5
Boagie -- Posey on the other hand, I don't think it matters nearly as much. Like all ballplayers Posey too can slump, but in an RBI situation I still have faith he can battle the pitcher and get a pitch to hit. Rog -- Buster's approach is very good. He's a good but not great RBI guy. The best RBI guys, naturally, are big home run guys, since they don't need a runner on base to get an RBI. I haven't looked it up, but I'll bet Pablo has done a better job of driving in runs than Buster has. Not positive by any means, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me. Taking a cursory look, it appears they are pretty close. Hunter Pence easily leads the Giants in RBI's, but he also has easily had the most runners on base. It kind of seems as if the best place in the Giants' order to hit may be the five-hole. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#ixzz2fOojacub |
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 19, 2013 22:29:33 GMT -5
Boagie -- Belt, Pence and Pablo look foolish in those situations when they aren't going well. At times, I'd honestly rather see Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner at the plate Rog -- Sometimes you seem to show a total lack of perspective, Boagie. I can't think of a single time (save a bunting situation) in which I would come CLOSE to rather seeing Cain or Bumgarner at the plate than Brandon, Pablo or Hunter. I think you might be confusing form with results. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#ixzz2fOrPjlzb |
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Post by dk on Sept 19, 2013 23:29:16 GMT -5
[ Hunter Pence easily leads the Giants in RBI's, but he also has easily had the most runners on base. It kind of seems as if the best place in the Giants' order to hit may be the five-hole.
dk..good old stat nerd twisting things around once more...Pence has more RBI because he has played in more games, BUT Pence has more RBI's per plate appearance with RISP than Posey...Pence has a higher set of stat with RISP than Posey...Pence is .297/.351/.862 to Posey with .287/.399/.383.....huge difference in slugging as Pence has 6 homers to Posey's nada....
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 20, 2013 5:34:09 GMT -5
Rog -- Hunter Pence easily leads the Giants in RBI's, but he also has easily had the most runners on base. It kind of seems as if the best place in the Giants' order to hit may be the five-hole. dk..good old stat nerd twisting things around once more...Pence has more RBI because he has played in more games, BUT Pence has more RBI's per plate appearance with RISP than Posey... Rog -- I didn't say differently, Don. What I said was essentially that Hunter leads the Giants in RBI's not ONLY because he has had more runners on base, but in PART. There was no judgment stated as to whether he was the best Giants hitter with runners on or not -- merely that he led in both RBI's and runners on by quite a bit. Don -- Pence has a higher set of stat with RISP than Posey...Pence is .297/.351/.862 to Posey with .287/.399/.383.....huge difference in slugging as Pence has 6 homers to Posey's nada.... Rog -- True. Do you think that had anything to do with why I said that Buster was good but not great at driving home runners? Buster has had 376 runners on base, including 177 in scoring position. He has driven home 57 of them. Hunter has had 459 runners on base, including 230 in scoring position. He has driven home 69 of them. The two are pretty close in efficiency. As you correctly point out, the primary differences in their RBI totals is that Hunter has hit 10 more home runs and has had quite a few more runners on base. I mentioned that batting fifth in the Giants' order seemed to be the best place to hit, since Hunter has had 83 more runners on base than has Buster, and he has also had 53 more runners in scoring position. That Buster himself has reached base rather often without clearing the bases with home runs is part of the reason for the difference. Pablo Sandoval is right with Buster in RBI's (75 to Buster's 73), and is well behind Hunter in RBI's. He too has had 72 fewer runners on base than Hunter, and 43 fewer in scoring position. Like Buster, he too has had far fewer home runs than Hunter. Pablo has driven home 62 of 387 runners, including 187 in scoring position. With one RBI for every 6.2 base runners, Pablo has shown a more efficiency than Buster's 6.6 runners and Hunter's 6.7 runners per. With one RBI for every 3.0 runners in scoring position, Pablo has also shown more efficiency than Buster's one per 3.1 and Hunter's one per 3.4. Hunter easily leads in RBI's, but in terms of efficiency in driving home runners, he is last among the three. Pablo is pretty clearly the best, with Buster in between. Hunter has the easy lead in RBI's among the three because he has hit more home runs and has had more runners on base and in scoring position. In terms of RBI's per at bat, Hunter leads with 6.4 at bats per RBI, followed by Pablo at 6.7 and Buster at 6.8. In terms of RBI's Hunter has been the most efficient, with Buster the worst of the three. In terms of driving in runners, Pablo has been the best, with Hunter the worst of the trio. It all depends on how one wants to look at the situation, but the point is that each of them has been good but not great this season in terms of RBI's and driving home runners. Another way of looking at it is that with runners in scoring position, Pablo has driven home one for every 1.7 outs he has made, while both Buster and Hunter stand at 2.1 outs per runner in scoring position driven in. Pablo has driven in a runner on every 3.1 at bats, followed by Buster at 3.2 and Hunter at 3.3. That would say that in terms of efficiency in driving home runners, Pablo has been the best, followed by Buster, who is followed closely by Hunter. Pablo appears to have been the best at driving home runners, but Hunter has driven himself in more times and has had more chances to drive in runners. Hunter is the best RBI man, and Pablo is the best at driving home runners. You could look it up. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#15126#ixzz2fQQYz2Co |
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Post by dk on Sept 20, 2013 22:02:48 GMT -5
Rog -- Hunter Pence easily leads the Giants in RBI's, but he also has easily had the most runners on base. It kind of seems as if the best place in the Giants' order to hit may be the five-hole. dk..good old stat nerd twisting things around once more...Pence has more RBI because he has played in more games, BUT Pence has more RBI's per plate appearance with RISP than Posey... Rog -- I didn't say differently, Don. What I said was essentially that Hunter leads the Giants in RBI's not ONLY because he has had more runners on base, but in PART. There was no judgment stated as to whether he was the best Giants hitter with runners on or not -- merely that he led in both RBI's and runners on by quite a bit. Don -- Pence has a higher set of stat with RISP than Posey...Pence is .297/.351/.862 to Posey with .287/.399/.383.....huge difference in slugging as Pence has 6 homers to Posey's nada.... Rog -- True. Do you think that had anything to do with why I said that Buster was good but not great at driving home runners? Buster has had 376 runners on base, including 177 in scoring position. He has driven home 57 of them. Hunter has had 459 runners on base, including 230 in scoring position. He has driven home 69 of them. The two are pretty close in efficiency. As you correctly point out, the primary differences in their RBI totals is that Hunter has hit 10 more home runs and has had quite a few more runners on base. I mentioned that batting fifth in the Giants' order seemed to be the best place to hit, since Hunter has had 83 more runners on base than has Buster, and he has also had 53 more runners in scoring position. That Buster himself has reached base rather often without clearing the bases with home runs is part of the reason for the difference. Pablo Sandoval is right with Buster in RBI's (75 to Buster's 73), and is well behind Hunter in RBI's. He too has had 72 fewer runners on base than Hunter, and 43 fewer in scoring position. Like Buster, he too has had far fewer home runs than Hunter. Pablo has driven home 62 of 387 runners, including 187 in scoring position. With one RBI for every 6.2 base runners, Pablo has shown a more efficiency than Buster's 6.6 runners and Hunter's 6.7 runners per. With one RBI for every 3.0 runners in scoring position, Pablo has also shown more efficiency than Buster's one per 3.1 and Hunter's one per 3.4. Hunter easily leads in RBI's, but in terms of efficiency in driving home runners, he is last among the three. Pablo is pretty clearly the best, with Buster in between. Hunter has the easy lead in RBI's among the three because he has hit more home runs and has had more runners on base and in scoring position. In terms of RBI's per at bat, Hunter leads with 6.4 at bats per RBI, followed by Pablo at 6.7 and Buster at 6.8. In terms of RBI's Hunter has been the most efficient, with Buster the worst of the three. In terms of driving in runners, Pablo has been the best, with Hunter the worst of the trio. It all depends on how one wants to look at the situation, but the point is that each of them has been good but not great this season in terms of RBI's and driving home runners. Another way of looking at it is that with runners in scoring position, Pablo has driven home one for every 1.7 outs he has made, while both Buster and Hunter stand at 2.1 outs per runner in scoring position driven in. Pablo has driven in a runner on every 3.1 at bats, followed by Buster at 3.2 and Hunter at 3.3. That would say that in terms of efficiency in driving home runners, Pablo has been the best, followed by Buster, who is followed closely by Hunter. Pablo appears to have been the best at driving home runners, but Hunter has driven himself in more times and has had more chances to drive in runners. Hunter is the best RBI man, and Pablo is the best at driving home runners. You could look it up. dk..I did look it up and proved your original post was wrong and again slanted towards Posey.....and you had to write a short story to try to twist my words but failed to prove anything but that once more you are wrong..... |
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 21, 2013 10:11:25 GMT -5
dk..I did look it up and proved your original post was wrong and again slanted towards Posey.....and you had to write a short story to try to twist my words but failed to prove anything but that once more you are wrong..... Rog -- When you "prove" that what I post is wrong, either I made an inadvertent mistake or you misunderstood what I wrote. Hunter -- whom I love by the way, as I have posted here before -- has more RBI's than Pablo and Buster not so much because he drives runners in better than they do, but primarily because he has hit more home runs (thus driving in himself) and has had more runners to drive in. You could look it up. If Hunter, Buster and Pablo had hit the same number of home runs and had the same number and position of runners to drive in, they would all have driven in about the same number of runs. Which actually says something positive for Pablo, since I don't think anyone would say his season compares with either of the other two players. Do your research, Don. What you say is twisting words is usually your own twisted misinterpretation. Which then leads YOU to twist your words. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#15154#ixzz2fXXUJ59n |
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 21, 2013 10:15:10 GMT -5
Perhaps, Don, you could point out what it was that I said that was wrong -- not simply wrong because you interpreted it that way. What you called a short story was actually a fairly deep analysis of how the three players were able to drive in runs.
In summary, Hunter hits more home runs (thus driving in himself, not runners on), and he has had more opportunities. Those are the two primary reasons he has significantly more RBI's than Buster or Pablo.
Perhaps you can show otherwise.
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Post by dk on Sept 21, 2013 15:14:04 GMT -5
dk..I did look it up and proved your original post was wrong and again slanted towards Posey.....and you had to write a short story to try to twist my words but failed to prove anything but that once more you are wrong..... Rog -- When you "prove" that what I post is wrong, either I made an inadvertent mistake or you misunderstood what I wrote. Hunter -- whom I love by the way, as I have posted here before -- has more RBI's than Pablo and Buster not so much because he drives runners in better than they do, but primarily because he has hit more home runs (thus driving in himself) and has had more runners to drive in. dk..when you say "not so much" means to me that he isn't as good as Posey or Pablo in driving in runs....and you cloud it up by belittling the fat that he hits homers with RISP...something Posey hasn';t done this year... and you close with the saying he has had more runners on the base without noting that he has played more games and he bats in runners at a higher % than Posey...twist that around.... You could look it up. If Hunter, Buster and Pablo had hit the same number of home runs and had the same number and position of runners to drive in, they would all have driven in about the same number of runs. Which actually says something positive for Pablo, since I don't think anyone would say his season compares with either of the other two players. Do your research, Don. What you say is twisting words is usually your own twisted misinterpretation. Which then leads YOU to twist your words. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#15154#ixzz2fXXUJ59n |
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Post by dk on Sept 21, 2013 15:21:29 GMT -5
[ You could look it up.
If Hunter, Buster and Pablo had hit the same number of home runs and had the same number and position of runners to drive in, they would all have driven in about the same number of runs. Which actually says something positive for Pablo, since I don't think anyone would say his season compares with either of the other two players.
Do your research, Don. What you say is twisting words is usually your own twisted misinterpretation. Which then leads YOU to twist your words.
dk..listen you little liar, I did the research and proved you wrong...if ,if,if ...so Posey is the greatest home run hitter in the history of baseball if he only hit more home runs....Pence is better in batting in runs with RISP because he hits with a higher average and a higher slugging average......don't twist things around and drop your weak argument...
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Post by dk on Sept 21, 2013 15:27:37 GMT -5
Perhaps, Don, you could point out what it was that I said that was wrong -- not simply wrong because you interpreted it that way. What you called a short story was actually a fairly deep analysis of how the three players were able to drive in runs. In summary, Hunter hits more home runs (thus driving in himself, not runners on), and he has had more opportunities. Those are the two primary reasons he has significantly more RBI's than Buster or Pablo. Perhaps you can show otherwise dk..you are a sick little nerd......of course Hunter does all these things...I pointed that out to you....which means he is a better RBI guy...which you deny....just because he has more at bats with RISP is a tribute to the fact he has played every game...this doesn't make him better, but the fact he has a better OPS when he bats with RISP makes him better than Posey no matter how you twist everything....... |
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 21, 2013 20:41:53 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 21, 2013 20:52:50 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 21, 2013 21:11:44 GMT -5
Don -- just because he has more at bats with RISP is a tribute to the fact he has played every game. Rog -- Yes, but did you know that he has driven in fewer runners per game than Pablo and fewer per START than either Buster or Pablo? The three guys have been close with regard to driving in runners. Hunter has hit more homers, and he's benefited from having more runners on base. You are correct that he has easily played more games than the other two. In fact, Hunter has been FABULOUS in terms of playing time this season. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#ixzz2faAmOsbe |
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 21, 2013 21:14:30 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 8, 2013 2:15:47 GMT -5
Al - Here's one. The broadcasters gave Pablo's avg. with runners in scoring position last night. I can't remember the exact number, but it was very good. Yet it seems to me that Pablo just leaves megatons of runners on base. In fact after they gave the average, he promptly hit into an inning ending double play with the bases loaded.
Dood - personally I think part of that is that Posey is as slow as Molina in February. It's rare that he scores from second on most singles. In fact, the RISP stat shouldn't apply unless Posey is on third, not second. Another part is that you just scrutanize Pablo more easily than other players for some reason. The other part, of course, was the big drop in power numbers for Pablo...if he only was hitting more doubles, triples and homers, then Posey could have scored more easily and Pablo's RBI total would have been more impressive commensurate with his average w/RISP.
~Dood
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 8, 2013 13:40:46 GMT -5
Rog -- Instead of calling me a nerd, why not simply learn to read?
Dood - would his reading it make you less of a nerd?
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Oct 8, 2013 15:09:45 GMT -5
I don't think I even considered Pablo's RBI tota. It just seemed to me that he left alot of runners on base. You may be right about the increased scrutiny part though. I certainly expected more than he provided this season.
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Post by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2013 18:34:27 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2013 18:35:47 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2013 18:40:52 GMT -5
Boagie -- When Pence is cold do I want him up there in RBI situation? Hell no! Do I want him up there when he's hot? You bet your ass I do. Posey on the other hand, I don't think it matters nearly as much. Like all ballplayers Posey too can slump, but in an RBI situation I still have faith he can battle the pitcher and get a pitch to hit. Rog -- I agree with you to an extent. But let's not forget that this season Buster had a 25-game stretch with just two RBI's. Here's what I think. I think we tend to see players as being either too black or too white, when in reality it comes down to shades of gray. Remember, even the good hitters leave runners on seven times out of 10 opportunities. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2008&page=1#ixzz2hB18tBLL |
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Post by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2013 18:42:35 GMT -5
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Post by allenreed on Oct 8, 2013 19:52:54 GMT -5
Do you think an increase in Don's reading comprehension would stop, or even slow down, his name calling? He's a liberal, it's what they do.
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Post by sharksrog on Oct 9, 2013 13:28:01 GMT -5
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Post by allenreed on Oct 9, 2013 15:12:17 GMT -5
Not too many, though Mark here is one. Most will jump to it, especially if they're beat in an argument. Don's a prime example, as is Chris Matthews, Ed Schultz, Bill Maher, Joy Behar, Keith Olbermann, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama.
Add Olbermann: Who does this guy have incriminating pictures of? He gets fired from every gig he ever takes, stinks at his job, is about as funny as a migraine, yet he keeps turning up. He must have one hell of an agent.
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Post by rxmeister on Oct 9, 2013 15:48:54 GMT -5
C'mon, Allen, be fair. I can now name you all your heroes, like Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, Michelle Bachmann, Glenn Beck etc. who all name call as well. There's absolutely no difference.
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Post by allenreed on Oct 9, 2013 16:05:00 GMT -5
Rush is not a hero of mine. I think he's more than a bit over the top, and haven't listened to his show well, ever.
O'Reilly doesn't name call very much, though I do remember him calling Barney Frank a coward. But he was right. Hannity doesn't name call much, if at all. Michelle Bachmann? I haven't heard her call anyone a name. Beautiful eyes though. Beck? Where did he go? You don't see him much anymore. More than a little over the top.
None of these guys are as bad as Schultz or Matthews. Not near. I can't believe Schultz has a show. He's an embarassment. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid are supposed to be above such things right? Obama's supposed to be a leader and be Presidential, yet he acts like a petulant, whiny, child. Also an embarassment.
I remember seeing Netanyahu give a speech recently (at the UN?) and was very impressed at his demeanor and statesman like presentation. Forceful, proud, dignified. Quite a contrast from Barack.
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