I really, really, really hope I'm wrong

[sharksrog]

Unfortunately I failed my alertness test today and forgot to tape the game, thinking it was a night game. Trying to look something else up at CSNBayArea.com, I saw that Tim pitched a really, really good game today.

He had that one stinkeroo in his first start after the no-hitter, but now in his last five starts Tim has:

. Given up his two lowest hit totals in any game in which he has pitched five or more innings.

. Pitched a complete game no-hitter.

. Pitched an 8-inning one-hitter.

. Allowed his fewest total base runners (two).

. Allowed only five walks in his last four starts, which I'm almost certain is a career best for him.

I'll give myself credit for something. When there were some doubters about whether Tim was showing signs of bouncing back, I posted five reasons why he was. I called for a "breakout" start right before his no-hitter.

But I hope I'm really wrong about one thing. I have predicted that Tim would have an ERA less than 3.75 beginning with August and have suggested it would be less than 3.50. But I have said that I didn't expect to ever see the old Cy Young Tim again.

I still don't, but I hope I'm wrong, wrong, wrong. Two of his last five starts have been the two best of his career. Except for the one stinkeroo, he HAS been Cy Young Tim over that period.

Unfortunately, Tim's price is going up. But he is also giving at least a few signs that he could again become more than I ever again thought he would be.

I called his "breakout" performance. It was the first time I predicted that this season. I gave the reasons why.

Perhaps we'll look back on the no-hitter as when "Big Time Timmy Jim" returned.

I haven't even seen his effort today. Perhaps after I see it, my enthusiasm will be tempered a bit.

But at this moment, I'm feeling quite confident (although still not certain) about my prediction from August 1st through the end of the season, and I'm hoping beyond hope that we will once again see the pitcher who got off to such a great start toward having the best SF Giants career of any Giants pitcher.

And regarding another thread we have been pursuing, Tim may be approaching a position where the Giants can't afford to re-sign him, but also can't afford NOT to re-sign him.

I'm usually pretty even-keel, but can you tell I'm excited? If the Giants can get Tim back on track this season, it year won't have been a total waste.

A lot more pieces need to bounce back next season, but can you recall ANY SF Giant who has experienced such a stunning, quick and lasting implosion as Tim? Getting him back would be HUGE.

Still a lot of questions regarding the Giants' rotation, but suddenly there are signs in virtually every direction that the old staff could be returning.

DARN, that would be a good thing.

[rxmeister]

I saw most of the game, and Timmy was even better than the numbers looked. Just a dominant performance. A man pitching against boys. Of course it was a Brewers team that is missing it's best hitters and was pretty much dominated by all four starters it went against this week.
Getting back to Timmy, what looked like a terrible miscalculation of his worth suddenly looks pretty good for him. I still think many teams will be scared off by the velocity drop and prolonged slump, but the Giants won't be one of them, and I bet a few others won't be either. Timmy is going to get that price war he was hoping for.

[allenreed]

Aug 8, 2013 18:58:02 GMT -5 sharksrog said:

Unfortunately I failed my alertness test today and forgot to tape the game, thinking it was a night game. Trying to look something else up at CSNBayArea.com, I saw that Tim pitched a really, really good game today.

He had that one stinkeroo in his first start after the no-hitter, but now in his last five starts Tim has:

. Given up his two lowest hit totals in any game in which he has pitched five or more innings.

. Pitched a complete game no-hitter.

. Pitched an 8-inning one-hitter.

. Allowed his fewest total base runners (two).

. Allowed only five walks in his last four starts, which I'm almost certain is a career best for him.

Allen- Posted a .250 winning percentage.

[sfgdood]

I'm getting tired of all this "Tim is only doing it against bad teams" crap. The Braves are possibly the best team in the league and he completely confused their great lineup twice, once at home and once at Jane Fonda field. He dueled one of the hottest teams in baseball (the Rays) with maybe the hottest pitcher facing him (Price) to a standoff before the bullpen lost it in extra innings.

To me it was only a matter of time before he put things together because anyone who knows what to look for could see the skills were there. I think, assuming he makes it through the season without an arm injury, it would be a huge mistake to let him go because the only way you replace him talent-for-talent is if you trade away too much to get it. Let Zito go but not Timmy.

~Dood

[rxmeister]

Yeah, I agree with you Dood, except I disagree about the quality of opponent not being taken into consideration. Cain gave up two runs into the seventh and both Gaudin and Bumgarner had them shut out as well into the seventh and eighth respectively. Now we have a great rotation, but that's pretty telling. Then again, Tim has a bunch of starts remaining and that will tell us alot.

[allenreed]

I must have missed some posts, because I haven't heard anyone say that Tim is only doing it against bad teams. I think I did mention that his no-no came against the Padregs, but nothing else. What's wrong with Milwaukee? They have some hitters. I know I'm sick to death of Carlos Gomez. He had a great series. Lucroy can hit, Francisco is dangerous. Betancourt hits well against us.
Timmy has improved, and he's starting to change my mind a bit. It all depends on price. I just don't think you can go $20+ million on this guy. Right now it seems the Giants will make the qualifying offer to him and go from there. But for all you guys who are happy Tim is doing well, it's only driving the price up.

[sharksrog]

Allen- Posted a .250 winning percentage.

Rog -- Actually, the winning percentage is .500, but it does show how little control a pitcher has over his won-loss record.

Let me ask you this, Allen? Why is it that almost every time a pitcher looks as if he should have won more games, his run support has been poor?

Tim certainly deserved the loss right after his no-hitter. That may have been the worst game he has pitched as a Giant. But in the other loss, he gave up two runs and received just one run of support. In his one no-decision, he gave up one run and received another run of support.

A pitcher has very little control over his run support, Allen.

I continue to ask the question as to whether you think Kirk Rueter was a far better pitcher than Matt Cain has been. If you can honestly answer that question with a yes, you honestly believe run support isn't all that important.

But I have no idea how anyone in his right mind could answer that question affirmatively. Such an opinion is so far off base, it would make me begin to question the validity of the person's other opinions.

[sharksrog]

Mark -- Timmy is going to get that price war he was hoping for.

Rog -- A year ago people were snickering at what a horrible decision Tim had made by not taking the Giants' offer of 5/$100. It was pointed out at the time that even if he didn't get out of his funk, he still would get decent money, and if he did come out of it a bit, he likely wouldn't lose much if any.

He has "picked" a good time to get hot. The Giants want him, and hopefully he wants to come back enough to give them a decent hometown discount.

The market for starters this winter will feature much more demand than supply. Tim has easily been the best of crop at one time. Remember, he his bounceback actually began right after last year's All-Star game, although it probably didn't receive as much notice last season as it should have.

For over a year now, Tim has posted an ERA of around 4.00. That's far worse than the Giants were expecting, of course, but it was also far BETTER than the 6.42 or something he gave up before last year's break.

It appears that if Tim does become a free agent this winter, he'll be a high risk/high reward starting pitcher.

Since the beginning of June, he has begun making that appear to be a decent gamble.

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[sharksrog]

Randy -- I think, assuming he makes it through the season without an arm injury, it would be a huge mistake to let him go because the only way you replace him talent-for-talent is if you trade away too much to get it.

Rog -- If the Giants ARE unable to re-sign him, it seems their strategy would be to use the money saved to get a decent starter to replace him and use the money saved to improve the outfield.

I'm hoping the Giants have enough money to both keep him AND improve the outfield.

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[sharksrog]

Allen -- Timmy has improved, and he's starting to change my mind a bit.

Rog -- What makes me wonder is why you still said right before his no-hitter that you saw no signs of improvement. I think the post about the five reasons Tim should improve put forth several.

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[sfgdood]

Randy -- I think, assuming he makes it through the season without an arm injury, it would be a huge mistake to let him go because the only way you replace him talent-for-talent is if you trade away too much to get it.

Rog -- If the Giants ARE unable to re-sign him, it seems their strategy would be to use the money saved to get a decent starter to replace him and use the money saved to improve the outfield.

Dood - tell me what FA hitter would want to come here to play when he can choose from any number of bandboxes elsewhere?

~Dood

[allenreed]

Well, by all indications, Hunter Pence. Do you want to come here and have a chance to win, or put up meaningless stats in a smaller park? If the money's close, I'd take the chance to win.

[sharksrog]

Randy -- I think, assuming he makes it through the season without an arm injury, it would be a huge mistake to let him go because the only way you replace him talent-for-talent is if you trade away too much to get it.

Rog -- If the Giants ARE unable to re-sign him, it seems their strategy would be to use the money saved to get a decent starter to replace him and use the money saved to improve the outfield.

Dood - tell me what FA hitter would want to come here to play when he can choose from any number of bandboxes elsewhere?

Rog -- The Giants might have to make an offer that is clearly above any other the free agent receives elsewhere. Or, as you and others have pointed out, they may need to trade for an outfielder.

It isn't easy fitting a very nice roster into the constraints of the money and players necessary to acquire it, but Brian has done a very nice job of it -- in part because he's fared very well in the bargain basement.



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[allenreed]

Aug 9, 2013 14:27:16 GMT -5 sharksrog said:

Allen -- Timmy has improved, and he's starting to change my mind a bit.

Rog -- What makes me wonder is why you still said right before his no-hitter that you saw no signs of improvement. I think the post about the five reasons Tim should improve put forth several.

Allen- Tim had some good games before, only to relapse back into mediocrity or worse. Even after his no-no he was absolutely shelled by the Reds. I think he's finally realized he can't throw the ball in the mid to high 90s anymore and has decided to focus more on command, as well as simply maybe deciding to focus. It's the first time he's really been able to sustain improvement for any significant length of time.

[sharksrog]

Rog -- What makes me wonder is why you still said right before his no-hitter that you saw no signs of improvement. I think the post about the five reasons Tim should improve put forth several.

Allen- Tim had some good games before, only to relapse back into mediocrity or worse. Even after his no-no he was absolutely shelled by the Reds.

Rog -- Which was a concern expressed here right AFTER the no-hitter.

Allen -- I think he's finally realized he can't throw the ball in the mid to high 90s anymore and has decided to focus more on command, as well as simply maybe deciding to focus. It's the first time he's really been able to sustain improvement for any significant length of time.

Rog -- I think Tim realized long ago that he can no longer throw the ball by hitters. Heck, as good as his fastball used to be, he still wasn't able to throw it by a lot of hitters. But as pointed out here previously, he DID make a very large improvement last season from his first start after the All-Star break until his last two starts of the season.

You could look it up.

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[sharksrog]

A good point Randy and others have made here is that as beautiful as AT&T is, it isn't the Garden of Eden for hitters. That probably means fortifying from within (Lincecum, Pence) as much as possible, then trading for hitters.

Wish the Giants had more to trade, but the development of their young pitchers does provide a tiny surplus from which to deal.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- I'll give myself credit for something. When there were some doubters about whether Tim was showing signs of bouncing back, I posted five reasons why he was. I called for a "breakout" start right before his no-hitter.

Boagie- I gotta admit, Rog, you were on top of this one. I was starting to see Tim bringing it together before his no-hitter but you stuck your neck out there and made a bold prediction. That was gutsy especially considering Tim's up and down season and a half. Over that period just when we thought Tim was coming around he'd bottom out again. But it would appear now that he's turned the corner, and you called it. Nice work.

...this almost makes up for all the times you've been wrong about everything else.

[sharksrog]

Boagie- I gotta admit, Rog, you were on top of this one. I was starting to see Tim bringing it together before his no-hitter but you stuck your neck out there and made a bold prediction. That was gutsy especially considering Tim's up and down season and a half. Over that period just when we thought Tim was coming around he'd bottom out again. But it would appear now that he's turned the corner, and you called it. Nice work.

Rog -- Thanks. But the point of my post was that I didn't think he would pitch as well as he did Thursday. Yes, I thought he was over the hump, placed his ERA over/under for the rest of the season at 3.75 and said I'd take the under.

But while his excellent performance right before the All-Star game didn't surprise me, Thursday's performance did. One could make an argument that it was the best performance of his career. THAT I wasn't expecting. The signs I had cited before the break were still there, but they had been interrupted by what might have been the WORST start of his career right after the All-Star game.

How's this for a surprise? In the span of just five games, Tim may have pitched both the two best games of his career and the very worst.

Didn't someone say baseball is a funny game? (It was Joe Garagiola, although he may have been quoting someone well before him.)


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[sfgdood]

Do you want to come here and have a chance to win, or put up meaningless stats in a smaller park? If the money's close, I'd take the chance to win.

Dood - that's easy for you to say from the outside but think of it from the player's perspective. They only have a finite number of years to make their big bucks. Generally speaking the first few times as a free agent they are going to try to maximize their earning potential and it usually isnt until they are on the downside that they start to think more about winning titles. When playing for a new contract, stats can be quite lucrative...not "meaningless."

There are exceptions but tell me what big FA hitter in his prime decided to sign with the Giants since the new park opened in 2000?

~Dood

[Islandboagie]

I question whether they were the two best games. I don't think Tim's no-hitter or Matt's perfect game should be considered a diminished feat because of the less than dangerous lineups they faced. After all I think a no hitter or perfect game is most impressive because the pitcher manages to keep their focus amidst a very nerve wracking moment. I was about a thousand miles away from Matt Cain's perfect game and I was one more Blanco catch away from having a heart attack. I still get a shiver down my spine when Amy G says "You just pitched the first perfect game in FRANCHISE history." To be honest I got choked up when Timmy pitched his no-hitter. Both events I will never forget.

However, I think when you're judging their very best games, you have to consider who they're up against and what the situation is.

In my opinion Timmy's best game was still probably the first game of the 2010 NLDS.

Matt's for me would be the game against the Rockies at Coors toward the end of the 2010 season.

[allenreed]

Aug 10, 2013 14:41:52 GMT -5 sfgdood said:

Do you want to come here and have a chance to win, or put up meaningless stats in a smaller park? If the money's close, I'd take the chance to win.

Dood - that's easy for you to say from the outside but think of it from the player's perspective. They only have a finite number of years to make their big bucks. Generally speaking the first few times as a free agent they are going to try to maximize their earning potential and it usually isnt until they are on the downside that they start to think more about winning titles. When playing for a new contract, stats can be quite lucrative...not "meaningless."

There are exceptions but tell me what big FA hitter in his prime decided to sign with the Giants since the new park opened in 2000?

Allen- Well, that's why I said "if the money's close". But seriously, how much is your lifestyle going to change if you're making $10 million a year instead of say $12 million? At that point the money's so ridiculous that it doesn't really matter. You can buy anything you want, and your family (and their families) are set for life.
When you get up to $20 million, how can you even find a way to spend that much? Then you get another $20 million the next year.
As for the second part of your question, Barry Bonds.

[sfgdood]

The point was...you never know when it's going to go south. You try to make as much as you can because after its over, your lifestyle can change dramatically. Plus you don't know when someone will bilk you on a raw business deal, frivolous lawsuit, bad stock advice, etc...it's better to have too much than possibly too little with no skills for a second career. Look at guys like Jack Clark and Jose Canseco.

Bonds was acquired when the Giants played at the Stick. He stayed because he was home and didn't want to move. In fact, I'm not sure the Giants ever let Barry get back to free agent status...they kept re-upping him until that last contract, at which time he was well past his prime.

After the Giants moved to AT&T I cant think of a single FA hitter coming here in his prime. Can you?

~Dood

[allenreed]

Aug 10, 2013 17:26:27 GMT -5 sfgdood said:

The point was...you never know when it's going to go south. You try to make as much as you can because after its over, your lifestyle can change dramatically. Plus you don't know when someone will bilk you on a raw business deal, frivolous lawsuit, bad stock advice, etc...it's better to have too much than possibly too little with no skills for a second career. Look at guys like Jack Clark and Jose Canseco.

Allen- If you get even one $10 million payday, you'd have to be monumentally stupid to go broke. You don't even need to attempt a business deal. What for? It just gives you something else to worry about. Put the money in a Cayman Islands account and enjoy.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- I question whether they were the two best games. I don't think Tim's no-hitter or Matt's perfect game should be considered a diminished feat because of the less than dangerous lineups they faced. After all I think a no hitter or perfect game is most impressive because the pitcher manages to keep their focus amidst a very nerve wracking moment. I was about a thousand miles away from Matt Cain's perfect game and I was one more Blanco catch away from having a heart attack. I still get a shiver down my spine when Amy G says "You just pitched the first perfect game in FRANCHISE history." To be honest I got choked up when Timmy pitched his no-hitter. Both events I will never forget.

However, I think when you're judging their very best games, you have to consider who they're up against and what the situation is.

In my opinion Timmy's best game was still probably the first game of the 2010 NLDS.

Matt's for me would be the game against the Rockies at Coors toward the end of the 2010 season.

Rog -- You make very good points here, Boagie. It kind of comes down to performance vs. context.

By the way, I think I looked it up at the time, but Matt has a fair number of games in which he yielded two or fewer hits. He is equal to Tim in no-hit games; has more one-hitters; and has more two-hitters IIRC.




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[sharksrog]

Rog -- What makes me wonder is why you still said right before his no-hitter that you saw no signs of improvement. I think the post about the five reasons Tim should improve put forth several.

Allen- Tim had some good games before, only to relapse back into mediocrity or worse. Even after his no-no he was absolutely shelled by the Reds. I think he's finally realized he can't throw the ball in the mid to high 90s anymore and has decided to focus more on command, as well as simply maybe deciding to focus.

Rog -- So you too are wondering why you didn't see Tim's improvement coming?

Allen -- It's the first time he's really been able to sustain improvement for any significant length of time.

Rog -- No, it isn't. It has been posted here before that Tim's ERA from the All-Star break to his last two starts of 2012 was 3.18. That's almost identical to his 3.26 ERA since the end of May.

In his 2012 stretch, Tim was 7-4. This time he has gone only 3-6. Of course, during the 2012 run he had 4.31 runs of support, while in his 2013 run he has had only 3.04 runs of support. In fact, if we take out the nine runs the Giants gave Tim in his no-hitter, he has had only 2.25 runs of support.

Let me ask you this, Allen: When we look at the two runs, the ERA's are almost identical. Yet the won-loss records vary from 7-4 to just 3-6. What is different? That's right: RUN SUPPORT. Tim got a run and a quarter more in his 2012 run.

Based on won-loss record, Tim was excellent in his 2012 run and lousy in this year's. Based on just about everything else, he was very good to excellent in each.

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[sharksrog]

Randy -- In fact, I'm not sure the Giants ever let Barry get back to free agent status...

Rog -- They didn't.

Randy -- they kept re-upping him until that last contract, at which time he was well past his prime.

Rog -- Actually, he wasn't. The problem was that he missed almost the entire first year of his contract (2005). In his final two seasons he posted OPS of .999 and 1.045. I don't believe any Giant since has equalled either of those. But he was probably a better player his final two seasons than any other position player had been at that age.

Barry was a poor fielder those final two seasons, of course.



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[Islandboagie]

Randy -- In fact, I'm not sure the Giants ever let Barry get back to free agent status...

Rog -- They didn't.

Boagie- Actually they did. Barry was a FA from Oct to Jan of 2006.

[rxmeister]

I'm with you Boagie on the pressure thing. I've always been amazed how they can pitch and the players can make the plays with the pressure of a no hitter or a playoff game. I played in an intramural basketball tournament once and we were down by one point with about five seconds to go and my teammate missed a jumper and I got a wide open rebound under the basket. The pressure of the clock and the moment got to me and I swear the ball felt like it was two hundred pounds when I went up for the buzzer and missed from point blank range! How do these guys catch and hit the ball with millions watching and everything on the line? I know if I were playing I wouldn't be able to catch a routine pop in those kinds of situations. As I watch on TV biting my nails I can barely handle the pressure! To me Timmy's start in game five was the biggest. Battling Cliff Lee to a scoreless tie until Renteria hit the HR was his finest moment to me.

[Islandboagie]

Allen -- It's the first time he's really been able to sustain improvement for any significant length of time.

Rog -- No, it isn't. It has been posted here before that Tim's ERA from the All-Star break to his last two starts of 2012 was 3.18. That's almost identical to his 3.26 ERA since the end of May.

Boagie- I believe you're both partially right here. Tim did put up the stats that you're citing Rog, but I think this is the first stretch where I'm not white knuckling the remote waiting for the implosion. Now, for the first time in a long time that the hitters are the ones with white knuckles not knowing what's coming next.

I've complimented Lincecum a lot here, but I don't think he's out of the woods yet. I'd like to see him battle a good hitting team and keep them under 2 runs through 7 plus. Then I'll say the old Timmy is back...to an extent.

[sharksrog]

Randy -- In fact, I'm not sure the Giants ever let Barry get back to free agent status...

Rog -- They didn't.

Boagie- Actually they did. Barry was a FA from Oct to Jan of 2006.

Rog -- Now that you mention it, I sort of remember it. Great catch!

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