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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 16, 2013 11:34:27 GMT -5
What do I care about Carlos Beltran's knee surgery? That has nothing to do with his production with the Giants. You want facts, Rog? Ok, Rog, in the words of your hero Brian Kenny, let's dig deeper..
You're right about Pence having more runners on than Beltran, that's indisputable. What you failed to mention is Pence's OPS with runners in scoring position and runners on were both significantly higher than Beltran's. Perhaps we need to assume Pence had more RBIs because he actually did something when someone was on base.
Let's also remember that Pablo protected Beltran, whereas Belt protected Pence. Taking that into consideration you'd think Beltran would have likely gotten more pitches to hit, but that's purely speculation on my part..so let's dig a little deeper shall we?
Both players hit 7 homeruns with the Giants. 6 of Hunter's homeruns came with runners on, 2 of Beltran's homeruns came with runners on..
In late and close games Beltran had 25 at-bats, 0 homeruns, and 1 RBI. Hunter Pence 18 at-bats, 2 homeruns and 8 RBIs. Beltran's OPS during late and close games was .625, Pence .972. It appears Pence had LESS oppertunity to effect late and close games as Beltran did, but actually did much more with those at-bats.
2-outs with runners in scoring position Hunter's OPS was .750, nothing that spectacular, but not alarming. Beltran's OPS with 2-outs and runners in scoring position was .461...
Now, before we had to "dig deeper" Rog and Randy both tried to paint a picture that Pence was ONLY getting more RBIs because he had more runners on than Beltran did. Shall we now admit that it might have to do with the fact that Pence was actually FAR better in those situations, thus leading to more Giants runs and wins?
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 16, 2013 21:21:08 GMT -5
Boagie --What do I care about Carlos Beltran's knee surgery?
Rog -- Apparently nothing, based on your comments below.
Boagie -- If you don't see that you're blind my friend. Beltran is soft. Just this last post-season he pulled himself out of the game after he tried to run out a grounder..He showed no noticeable limp while running down the line or going back to the dugout. To me, if I were a Cardinals fan, I'd consider that unforgiveable.
I understand why you like Beltran, Rog, on paper he looks good because that's how he's managed his career. Playing it safe, and trying to maximize his production to better suit himself and his lavish lifestyle.
Rog -- I guess you wrote the above because you indeed didn't care about how Beltran's injuries might affect his playing time.
I don't criticize very often, Boagie, but if I do, I've usually done my research.
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 16, 2013 21:28:47 GMT -5
Boagie -- You're right about Pence having more runners on than Beltran, that's indisputable. What you failed to mention is Pence's OPS with runners in scoring position and runners on were both significantly higher than Beltran's. Perhaps we need to assume Pence had more RBIs because he actually did something when someone was on base. Rog -- You could be right about that, but do you have numbers with the Giants only? Based on their full-season numbers, Beltran hit .310/.400/.535/.935 and .300/.376/.519/.895 in 2011, while Pence hit .251/.332/.443/.775 and .273/.343/.470/.812 last season. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1603&page=3#ixzz2NlBFaqpn
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 16, 2013 21:39:26 GMT -5
Boagie -- Hunter Pence on the other hand is a ball player, you give me 25 Hunter Pences and I'll give you a Championship, 25 Beltrans and you have the NY Mets, who are now trying to recover their franchise and get back to a respectable level.
Dood - sorry my friend but you are kidding yourself. As inspiring and uplifting a player as Hunter Pence may be, if you put a lineup of 920 OPS players against one of 671 OPSers, the 920s will have clinched by late August.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 16, 2013 21:48:56 GMT -5
Boagie -- Both players hit 7 homeruns with the Giants. 6 of Hunter's homeruns came with runners on, 2 of Beltran's homeruns came with runners on.. In late and close games Beltran had 25 at-bats, 0 homeruns, and 1 RBI. Hunter Pence 18 at-bats, 2 homeruns and 8 RBIs. Beltran's OPS during late and close games was .625, Pence .972. It appears Pence had LESS oppertunity to effect late and close games as Beltran did, but actually did much more with those at-bats. 2-outs with runners in scoring position Hunter's OPS was .750, nothing that spectacular, but not alarming. Beltran's OPS with 2-outs and runners in scoring position was .461... Now, before we had to "dig deeper" Rog and Randy both tried to paint a picture that Pence was ONLY getting more RBIs because he had more runners on than Beltran did. Shall we now admit that it might have to do with the fact that Pence was actually FAR better in those situations, thus leading to more Giants runs and wins? Rog -- You DO have Giants-only numbers. I didn't have that advantage. You made good points here. One thing that is worth mentioning though, is that Pence made a whole lot more outs than Beltran. I don't think you will find many who think Pence hit better for the Giants last season than Beltran did in 2011. And as for Randy's and my saying that ALL Pence's advantage was due to more runners on base and in scoring position, I don't think that was the case. Hey, Boagie, based on what you posted, I would say Hunter did do a better job with men on base than Beltran did. But overall it's darn hard to make an argument for Pence. It's tough for .219 to outdo .323. Where you are really off and seemingly avoiding what you posted is about Beltran's jaking it. Apparently Carlos was quite popular in the Giants' clubhouse. Do you think that would have been the case if his Giants teammates thought he was jaking it? I'm not sure which player I would rather have for this upcoming season. They're actually making about the same, and each has one year left. I think I would take Pence, since he has been healthier and is much younger. I do think he'll bounce back. Like Tim Lincecum, I don't see how he could lost it that suddenly. The one thing about Hunter is that if he has a good season this year, he'll be expensive and long-term. He does want to keep playing for the Giants though, so that might help. Beltran won't get nearly as long a contract, and if he became seriously injured this season (such as a further injury to his knee), he could be pretty much done. So I guess we do agree on one thing here. I would prefer to have Hunter for this upcoming season and beyond. Part of the reason is that Beltran has had serious knee damage. But you indicated you didn't care about that. Going back to the Beltran 2011/Pence 2012 comparison, I would say that Beltran hit a lot better but that Pence was more timely. Perhaps in part because of the difference in sample sizes, hitting is a repeatable skill. Clutch hitting isn't. A good hitter will consistently place near the top in hitting. A good clutch hitter won't be nearly as consistent season-to-season in clutch hitting. I do believe some of that is due to sample size though. As we saw with both players, they were much different with the Giants than they were overall on the season with regard to hitting with men on base and with RISP. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1603&page=3#ixzz2NlCbjN30
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 16, 2013 21:49:54 GMT -5
By the way, Boagie, where were you able to find the double splits on Beltran and Pence? That is useful information which I used to be able to get but haven't been able to do lately.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 16, 2013 22:19:07 GMT -5
By the way, Boagie, where were you able to find the double splits on Beltran and Pence? That is useful information which I used to be able to get but haven't been able to do lately.
Boagie- go to Baseball-reference.com, under standard batting you highlight splits and it will have a drop down list of years. Click on the year and then it will open up the players splits for that season, if the player played with two different teams that season it will give you to option to pick the team at the top. I did that for both players in different windows which I compared.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 16, 2013 22:52:49 GMT -5
Rog- Going back to the Beltran 2011/Pence 2012 comparison, I would say that Beltran hit a lot better but that Pence was more timely.
Boagie- I agree, Beltran had some pretty looking individual stats. But as you pointed out, Hunter was more timely. He also scored more runs and drove in more runs, Beltran did all his hitting with the bases empty and was terrible with runners on. We didn't bring Beltran here to be a leadoff hitter, we brought him here to drive in runs. Hunter we brought here to do the same, and that's exactly what he did.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 16, 2013 23:27:52 GMT -5
Dood - sorry my friend but you are kidding yourself. As inspiring and uplifting a player as Hunter Pence may be, if you put a lineup of 920 OPS players against one of 671 OPSers, the 920s will have clinched by late August.
Boagie- I mentioned nothing about Hunter's inspiration. I thought that pre-game huddle was kind of ridiculous myself, it appeared to be effective, but ridiculous nonetheless.
My liking for Hunter comes from his ability to still drive in runs when he's not at his best, that's what makes a good ball player in my opinion. Posey does that, Pence did that last season, Burrell did that in 2010.
Unfortunately we didn't have a lineup of hitters with a .920 ops. If we did we wouldn't have given up our #1 pitching prospect for help in the middle of our lineup. Rog has used this argument before with players, but there's no lineup that exists like this. Players have certain roles on teams, some set the table, some knock them in, and a special few do both. I will agree that Beltran throughout his career has been a member of the special elite group of players who can do both. However, he wasn't that player with the Giants. I've posted his numbers with runners on and in scoring position, he was downright lousy in those categories.
Back to your scenario of a lineup with .920 hitters...We weren't looking for a guy to just fit in, which Beltran would have done nicely in a lineup already stacked with good hitters, In Beltran and Pence's case we were looking for a guy to drive in runs. Pence hit better with runners on and runners in scoring position, he scored more runs and drove in more runs..I don't really know what else to tell you.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 18, 2013 12:30:00 GMT -5
if youre trying to make the case that Beltran cannot be counted on in big game or clutch situations, I have a feeling your argument will come up wanting...just saying
~Dood
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 18, 2013 12:38:30 GMT -5
Back to your scenario of a lineup with .920 hitters...We weren't looking for a guy to just fit in, which Beltran would have done nicely in a lineup already stacked with good hitters, In Beltran and Pence's case we were looking for a guy to drive in runs. Pence hit better with runners on and runners in scoring position, he scored more runs and drove in more runs..I don't really know what else to tell you.
Dood - actually it was your scenario, not mine. You said a team full of Pences (671 OPS for the Giants in 2011) would be far better than a team full of Beltrans (920 OPS in 2010 for the Giants). I disagree
~Dood
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 18, 2013 14:17:38 GMT -5
if youre trying to make the case that Beltran cannot be counted on in big game or clutch situations, I have a feeling your argument will come up wanting...just saying
~Dood
Boagie- I don't need to make my case, the stats speak for themselves. Throughout his career Beltran has been a good clutch hitter, but with the Giants he was bad in clutch situations, that's not my opinion Randy, that's a fact.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 18, 2013 15:03:10 GMT -5
Dood - actually it was your scenario, not mine. You said a team full of Pences (671 OPS for the Giants in 2011) would be far better than a team full of Beltrans (920 OPS in 2010 for the Giants). I disagree
Boagie- You're right Randy, and I apologize. I agree with what you're saying here, a team of .920 OPS hitters would likely be much better than a team of .671 OPS hitters.
But, my argument was not about OPS, it was about a team of hitters that drove in runs with the same frequency that Pence did. If you take the amount of runs and rbis that Pence got, spread that out to a full year, for 8 players and created a lineup with it, it would be alot more runs and rbis than the same scenario with Beltran while he was a Giant. Thus, the team with Pences would score more runs and likely win more games.
But..If we took their numbers with the Giants:
- Pence wouldn't have as many rbis because his obp wasn't good, so a lineup of Pences infront of himself wouldn't net as many rbis.
- In Beltrans case, as a Giant he was poor with runners on, his high obp would in turn make him hit worse more often..
Of these two scenarios I see the "Pence not getting on base enough" holding up longer than "Beltran not hitting with runners on." Eventually Beltran is going to hit with runners on.
Mathematically I'm right about the runs and rbis during their tenure with the Giants. Pence, during the periods compared between the two, produced more runs...
But throughout a season, I'll admit, realistically your lineup is more likely to be better.
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 18, 2013 15:07:01 GMT -5
Dood - sorry my friend but you are kidding yourself. As inspiring and uplifting a player as Hunter Pence may be, if you put a lineup of 920 OPS players against one of 671 OPSers, the 920s will have clinched by late August. Boagie- I mentioned nothing about Hunter's inspiration. I thought that pre-game huddle was kind of ridiculous myself, it appeared to be effective, but ridiculous nonetheless. Rog -- After seeing Hunter on the Giants telecast yesterday, I'm in love with the guy! I have always hoped the Giants would be able to re-sign him, but also realized that could be difficult. Usually teams shell out the big bucks for players who came up through their system, but I have the feeling that if Hunter has a good year in 2013, the Giants will find a way to sign him -- especially if they fare well in 2013. He has said he wants to stay with the Giants. Boagie -- My liking for Hunter comes from his ability to still drive in runs when he's not at his best, that's what makes a good ball player in my opinion. Posey does that, Pence did that last season, Burrell did that in 2010. Rog -- Pence's career line is .285/.339/.475/.813. With RISP it is .290/.348/.483/.830. The two are darn close, with the slight advantage going to his numbers batting with RISP. He has been essentially the same hitter with RISP as he has been overall. Same with his late & close hitting (.285/.353/.465/.817), although his hitting in high leverage situations has been a very nice .310/.361/.542/.903. As sample sizes get bigger, hitters tend to come closer to being the same hitters in most situations. I would say that over his career Hunter has been a pretty good hitter in the clutch. But not tremendously better than overall. If Pence is able to drive in runs when he is struggling, he isn't doing all that great a job (compared to other good middle-of-the-lineup hitters when he's hitting well. Buster is an intriguing study. (I thank you for bringing up in this context, since I often learn things when I research players in various contexts.) Buster's career numbers are .314/.380/.503/.883. With RISP .319/.415/.523/.938. Late & close .253/.345/.331/.677. High leverage .313/.387/.431/.819. More variances here, and the one that stands out is late & close, where Buster really struggles. Is Don right that Buster tires? Could be. I'm guessing most catchers tire at least a little. But in addition to small sample size, I think there is another, somewhat hidden factor at play (ha,ha) here. Buster doesn't hit power pitchers well (.243/.327/.382/.709). And which type of pitchers usually pitch in late & close situations? Power relievers. Buster is a great hitter for a catcher because he feasts on finesse pitchers (.370/.423/.567/.990) and southpaws (.344/.411/.652/1.063). Most hitters are better against finesse hitters, and most right-handed hitters are better against southpaws. But Buster's splits are extreme. Pat Burrell in 2010 was basically the same hitter in the situations mentioned. Without going beyond batting average (not big differences in his other numbers either, especially given the small samples), he hit .252/.238/.250 and .239). I haven't looked up Carlos Beltran, since I've gone into too much detail already, but I do know he has a reputation as a clutch hitter -- no doubt based in part on how incredibly well he hit in the 2004 postseason. Boagie -- Unfortunately we didn't have a lineup of hitters with a .920 ops. If we did we wouldn't have given up our #1 pitching prospect for help in the middle of our lineup. Rog has used this argument before with players, but there's no lineup that exists like this. Players have certain roles on teams, some set the table, some knock them in, and a special few do both. Rog -- When Barry Bonds as a Giant, he was their best hitter in each of the nine spots in the order. You are right that there are differences in the weightings of responsibilities for different spots in the order, but the better hitter is usually better in almost any spot compared to the lesser hitter. Boagie -- I will agree that Beltran throughout his career has been a member of the special elite group of players who can do both. However, he wasn't that player with the Giants. I've posted his numbers with runners on and in scoring position, he was downright lousy in those categories. Rog -- Please share with me where you got the double splits you used. They would certainly be of help to me. What you say about Carlos' being clutch with the Giants (or in his case, not so much) is a good point. I would attribute that mostly to small sample size though. It is hard for me to get past the 100+ point advantage the 2011 Giants Beltran had over the .219 2012 Pence. I understand what you are saying about both RBI's and runs scored. It is a good point. I'm just having a really hard time getting past the 100+ point differential. As you pointed out, Carlos didn't hit well in clutch situations, and the Giants also didn't drive him in much. Let me conclude by saying, I love Hunter Pence now. But I don't think many were particularly happy with his stint with the Giants. It is amazing that Buster hit as well as he did with Pence batting behind him. Back to your scenario of a lineup with .920 hitters...We weren't looking for a guy to just fit in, which Beltran would have done nicely in a lineup already stacked with good hitters, In Beltran and Pence's case we were looking for a guy to drive in runs. Pence hit better with runners on and runners in scoring position, he scored more runs and drove in more runs..I don't really know what else to tell you. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1603&page=3#9590#ixzz2NugjeFeZ
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 18, 2013 15:13:56 GMT -5
Hey, Boagie, based on what you posted, I would say Hunter did do a better job with men on base than Beltran did. But overall it's darn hard to make an argument for Pence. It's tough for .219 to outdo .323.
Boagie- You're absolutely correct, Rog. .219 does not outdo .323...
But, 45 rbis does outdo 18 rbis, and which do you think effected more games down the stretch... Beltran's average, obp and ops, or Hunter's runs and rbis?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 18, 2013 16:07:07 GMT -5
Now, before we had to "dig deeper" Rog and Randy both tried to paint a picture that Pence was ONLY getting more RBIs because he had more runners on than Beltran did.
Dood - I don't know about Rog but I don't remember posting that the surrounding lineup being the ONLY factor in Pence's having more RBI than Beltran. On the other hand, if Beltran had Pagan, Scutaro, Sandoval and Posey in front of him, as well as a hot Belt hitting behind him, it's hard to imagine his RBI total not being darn near proportional to that of Pence (lets not forget Pence made a lot more appearances than Beltran did as a Giant).
Let's take a closer look at your digging. It's true that overall, having Pablo protecting you would seem a better help than Belt doing the same...but Belt was pretty darn hot down the stretch last year....arguably much hotter than Pablo down the stretch in 2011 since he didnt bat right handed at that time.
Both players did hit 7 home runs...Beltran in 15 fewer games One can make an argument that Beltran hit solo shots because he had fewer men on base ahead of him and got pitched around when there were men on base. Nothing scientific to back that up...just a logical guess.
You make a good point about OPS in late close games and 2 out w/RISP, but this could seem to be a situation where Pablo hitting behind Beltran and his well-earned reputation worked against him. I can't say it happened every time but I'm pretty sure there were plenty of those situations where they chose to pitch around Carlos and instead pitched to Pablo with a lefty.
Finally, I havent looked it up, but it seems to my memory that Pence was granted a LOT more "man on third less than two outs" situations...those situation I call "cheap RBI" situations. Full credit to Hunter for taking advantage and cashing in those gift RBIs at a high rate.
My point was and is...the surrounding lineup isnt the ONLY factor but it is a pretty important one.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 18, 2013 16:26:44 GMT -5
Boagie- You're absolutely correct, Rog. .219 does not outdo .323... But, 45 rbis does outdo 18 rbis, and which do you think effected more games down the stretch... Beltran's average, obp and ops, or Hunter's runs and rbis? Rog -- And Hunter had so many MORE RBI's than Carlos that it's hard to get Carlos' to match Hunter's no matter what reasonable adjustment. Something that DOES make the gap quite a bit closer and which I think is valid is this: Please follow this closely. I think it's reasonable, but I doubt you'll agree, and I welcome your feedback. Hunter had something like 2 1/2 times as many RBI's as Carlos had, but as Randy and I pointed out, he also had many more runners on base and in scoring position. That takes care of part of the difference, but not nearly all of it. There is one other adjustment that seems proper to me. Carlos made a lot fewer outs than Hunter, which since 27 outs makes a game should also be a reasonable adjustment. Without doing them, I'm virtually certain that Hunter still comes out on top with regard to RBI's, but those two adjustments make the effective difference shrink a lot. Meanwhile, all three of Hunter's hits yesterday were to the right side, which could be a sing of good things to come. He still seems to be bailing more than his hitting coaches would like, but he has tremendous strength (think triple hit), so he can hit the ball with some authority to right even if his hips aren't in the swing. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1603&page=3#ixzz2Nvb4xUgX
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 19, 2013 2:05:13 GMT -5
Dood - I don't know about Rog but I don't remember posting that the surrounding lineup being the ONLY factor in Pence's having more RBI than Beltran. On the other hand, if Beltran had Pagan, Scutaro, Sandoval and Posey in front of him, as well as a hot Belt hitting behind him, it's hard to imagine his RBI total not being darn near proportional to that of Pence (lets not forget Pence made a lot more appearances than Beltran did as a Giant).
Boagie- You didn't say it was the ONLY reason, but you did say it was a reason. True, there had to be runners on base for Pence to drive them in, but as my numbers suggested, both had at-bats with runners on, one drove them in, one didn't. If Pence had a few more rbis I would definitely say that was a big reason, but in this case the rbi totals weren't even close.
Dood- Let's take a closer look at your digging. It's true that overall, having Pablo protecting you would seem a better help than Belt doing the same...but Belt was pretty darn hot down the stretch last year....arguably much hotter than Pablo down the stretch in 2011 since he didnt bat right handed at that time.
Boagie- True, Belt was hitting well toward the end of the year, but Pablo has established a name for himself that would get respect from pitchers, Belt still hasn't.
Dood- Both players did hit 7 home runs...Beltran in 15 fewer games One can make an argument that Beltran hit solo shots because he had fewer men on base ahead of him and got pitched around when there were men on base. Nothing scientific to back that up...just a logical guess.
Boagie- Good point, you don't need to have scientific evidence to make a point with me, I agree with you here, Beltran probably did manage to have bad timing, while Pence had good timing. But we're not talking about whos timing was better, the original comment I made is that I felt Pence was better for us in 2012 than Beltran was in 2011. The fact that Pence was more timely with his hitting down the stretch would certainly put the advantage in his favor.
Dood- You make a good point about OPS in late close games and 2 out w/RISP, but this could seem to be a situation where Pablo hitting behind Beltran and his well-earned reputation worked against him. I can't say it happened every time but I'm pretty sure there were plenty of those situations where they chose to pitch around Carlos and instead pitched to Pablo with a lefty.
Boagie- There might have been a situation or two when this happened, but that still doesn't explain the low OPS. His OPS would go up if he walked. With runners in scoring position he only walked 4 times. I think you COULD say he was perhaps trying to do too much which would explain the poor numbers with runners on, but that still doesn't make him better than Pence was for us.
Dood- Finally, I havent looked it up, but it seems to my memory that Pence was granted a LOT more "man on third less than two outs" situations...those situation I call "cheap RBI" situations. Full credit to Hunter for taking advantage and cashing in those gift RBIs at a high rate.
Boagie- Without looking at the numbers I would have probably agreed with you. And now that I look at them, Pence did have more, but not ALOT more. Pence had 18 plate appearances with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. Beltran had 11 plate appearances. However, Pence had 16 rbis in those plate appearances, Beltran had 4. Pence may have had more, but he was also much more successful in those at-bats. The most telling stat with a runner at 3rd and less than 2 outs between these two, Pence had 5 sac flies, Beltran had 0.
I think it's safe to say that in a Giants uniform, during their midseason aquisition, Pence was more productive than Beltran.
Dood- My point was and is...the surrounding lineup isnt the ONLY factor but it is a pretty important one.
Boagie- The lineup thing would be a very good point if all Pence's clutch numbers weren't better than Beltran's. His ops is better with runners on, runners in scoring position, and in late and close games. Your argument that he just had more oppertunities is just saying he did it for a longer amount of time than Beltran and probably in higher pressure situations, which just makes him look even that much better. Even if Beltran was given the same amount of oppertunities with runners on that Pence had, it would be very hard to equal that, 45 rbis in 59 games is impressive.
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 19, 2013 2:16:45 GMT -5
Rog -- Please share with me where you got the double splits you used. They would certainly be of help to me.
Boagie- I told you a ways up there, Rog, you must have missed it.
Go to Baseball-reference.com, under standard batting, mouse over splits and it will have a drop down list of years. Click on the year and then it will open up the players splits for that season, if the player played with two different teams that season it will give you to option to pick the team near the top of the page. I did that for both players in different windows which I compared.
If you ever want to know more about researching stats, Rog, I'll be glad to teach you, it's not hard.
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 19, 2013 12:05:16 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 19, 2013 12:06:39 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 19, 2013 12:18:17 GMT -5
Randy -- I havent looked it up, but it seems to my memory that Pence was granted a LOT more "man on third less than two outs" situations...those situation I call "cheap RBI" situations. Full credit to Hunter for taking advantage and cashing in those gift RBIs at a high rate. Rog -- For a guy who was striking out so often, Hunter did an unexpectedly good job in those situations. As an aside, you and I have a somewhat different version of what constitutes a cheap RBI with a runner on third and fewer than two outs. If the game score is such that a ground ball to the middle of the infield gets the runner home, I consider that to be a cheap RBI situation. Where the run is more crucial, I don't see it as being cheap. I understand where you're coming from though. Maybe like the slightly subtle difference between cheap and inexpensive. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1603&page=3#ixzz2O0UGMDf7
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 19, 2013 12:22:21 GMT -5
basically I consider any run that can be driven in via an out being made to be cheap
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 19, 2013 12:24:15 GMT -5
Boagie -- But throughout a season, I'll admit, realistically your lineup is more likely to be better. Rog -- There is a stat called Runs Created per Game (or Runs Created per 27 Outs). It is a statistical estimate of what a lineup of nine of that player would score per nine innings. With the Giants in 2011, Carlos created 7.1 runs per game. In 2012, Hunter created 3.9. I would say that a good hitter should create at least 5.0 runs per game, since in a real situation of clones, it would be 8 of that player plus a pitcher. Personally, I'm rooting for Hunter to have a fabulous 2013 season and become a Giant for life. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1603&page=3#ixzz2O0VbctxN
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 19, 2013 12:29:26 GMT -5
Boagie- Without looking at the numbers I would have probably agreed with you. And now that I look at them, Pence did have more, but not ALOT more. Pence had 18 plate appearances with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. Beltran had 11 plate appearances. However, Pence had 16 rbis in those plate appearances, Beltran had 4. Rog -- Now THAT'S great anaylsis, Boagie! Maybe you and I have each improved each other in this thread. Regardless, congratulations. What you posted here is just outstanding, and I certainly can't argue with it. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1603&page=3#ixzz2O0XTT8Wq
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 19, 2013 15:17:25 GMT -5
basically I consider any run that can be driven in via an out being made to be cheap
~Dood
Boagie- you say cheap, I say crucial. Those are the runs (especially the middle of the lineup) needs to get in at a high percentage. For me, this topic isn't so much about Pence taking advantage of those situations, but more about the fact that Beltran didn't.
I might be totally off base here, but I get the feeling you're almost saying that Pence somehow cheated the numbers by getting "cheap" RBI situations.
I think if you look at more "rbi guys" around baseball they're all pretty good in these "cheap" situations.
Let's take the two MVPs from last season..
Miguel Cabrera for example in 58 plate appearances drove in 36 rbis with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, only hitting 1 homerun, but getting 6 sac flies.
Buster Posey had 61 plate appearances and drove in 48 rbis! 3 homeruns and 9 sac flies. Almost half of Posey's RBIs came in at-bats with a runner at 3rd and less than 2 outs. This to me is a BIG reason why the Giants are offensively much better than they were in the recent pre-Posey era and why Posey won the MVP.
Of course your point is still valid, the reason why Posey, Pence and even Cabrera were able to knock in alot of runs in those situations is because they had alot of plate appearances, and often there were alot of runners on base, they certainly benefitted from the table being set. However, they capitalized, while Beltran batted .200 with no sac flies - that's unacceptable.
I think it's reasonable to conclude that good hitters normally take advantage of these situations, that's why the good hitters are batting in spots in the lineup that normally yield the most runners on base. Thus making Carlos Beltran NOT good for the Giants in 2011.
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donk
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Post by donk on Mar 19, 2013 15:53:23 GMT -5
Boagie -- But throughout a season, I'll admit, realistically your lineup is more likely to be better. Rog -- There is a stat called Runs Created per Game (or Runs Created per 27 Outs). It is a statistical estimate of what a lineup of nine of that player would score per nine innings. With the Giants in 2011, Carlos created 7.1 runs per game. In 2012, Hunter created 3.9. I would say that a good hitter should create at least 5.0 runs per game, since in a real situation of clones, it would be 8 of that player plus a pitcher. Personally, I'm rooting for Hunter to have a fabulous 2013 season and become a Giant for life. dk...don't understand that stat....since the entire NL averaged about 700 runs per season.....if a batter averaged 5 runs per game, than he is accounting for over 800 runs per year...what gives? ? When they say 5 runs per 27 outs, they are really talking about what a good hitter would do iif his 3 or 4 at bats were prorated over a game of 9 guys batting at that rate...I think it would make more sense to talk about what a batter does per plate appearance....not 27 outs.....and since -runs scored and RBI's require the aid of your team mates, what do you really have outside of a quirky stat some one can take credit for developing....more telling would be what he does with runners on base and how often he goes 2 bases on an average hit that an average guy goes 2 bases....
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Post by sharksrog on Mar 19, 2013 23:45:49 GMT -5
Rog -- There is a stat called Runs Created per Game (or Runs Created per 27 Outs). It is a statistical estimate of what a lineup of nine of that player would score per nine innings. With the Giants in 2011, Carlos created 7.1 runs per game. In 2012, Hunter created 3.9. I would say that a good hitter should create at least 5.0 runs per game, since in a real situation of clones, it would be 8 of that player plus a pitcher. Personally, I'm rooting for Hunter to have a fabulous 2013 season and become a Giant for life. dk...don't understand that stat....since the entire NL averaged about 700 runs per season.....if a batter averaged 5 runs per game, than he is accounting for over 800 runs per year...what gives? ? When they say 5 runs per 27 outs, they are really talking about what a good hitter would do iif his 3 or 4 at bats were prorated over a game of 9 guys batting at that rate... Rog -- As I clearly stated, the stat estimates how many runs a team of nine of the same player -- in this instance, 9 Hunter Pences or 9 Carlos Beltrans -- would score per 27 outs. It isn't a perfect stat, of course, but it's not a bad one. Don -- I think it would make more sense to talk about what a batter does per plate appearance....not 27 outs..... Rog -- There are estimates of that too. They're pretty much all good stats, and a lot can be learned from examining them individually and even more so, as a group. Don -- and since -runs scored and RBI's require the aid of your team mates, what do you really have outside of a quirky stat some one can take credit for developing.... Rog -- The stat is based on what the average accomplishment in an average environment of situations would create. It's not a quirky stat at all. Don -- more telling would be what he does with runners on base and how often he goes 2 bases on an average hit that an average guy goes 2 bases.. Rog -- And again, those things are measured. I myself have spoken of the value of valuing batter bases per out made and also advances runners are advanced per out made with the chance to advance runners. There are many ways to evaluate the accomplishments of a hitter, and taken together, they give a much better picture of a hitter than the old combination of batting average, home runs and RBI's. It's kind of quirky, Don, to call a stat that is published for each player for each season in The Baseball Cube -- which perhaps has more player information than any other source -- quirky. Like many old-timers (and quite a few not so old), you appear to be prejudiced against analytics. From a former engineer, that is surprising. But then, these stats are newer developments, and you're not quite as new. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1603&page=3#9617#ixzz2O3GB78DG
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donk
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Post by donk on Mar 20, 2013 0:40:06 GMT -5
once more you are completely off base...I can analyze the crap out of a player by looking at him and comparing his raw stats...I don't some nerd to put together a cmbination of stats and trot it out as if it had some real meaning...I bet the Cube is known by very few baseball fans and really adds little to understanding the game of baseball..don't put down the old timers...they knew more about the game and how to compare ball players than the modern day nerds who need a computer to tell them the wrong thing....I still remember how accurate the real old timers were in judging how many runs were scored by how long an inning took to complete while watching the scores come in over the Western Electric ticker tape....
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 20, 2013 9:52:43 GMT -5
Rog, I'm not exactly on Don's side here because of his analyzing of Posey over the past few years has been rather poor. But, at the same time his questioning the runs created per game "stat" is justified. I think alot of these estimated guesses have somehow found their way into conversations being used as factual data by people who don't know any better, I believe you know better, Rog . Runs created per game shouldn't even qualify as a stat, because it's so far out there that it can't be used in any logical analysis to prove your case. If there was some sort of governing body who officially allowed stats to be deemed legitimate, WAR and runs created per game wouldn't make the cut.
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