Anyone? Bueller?

[sfgdood]

Anyone still think AT&T is too big for Duvall's power?

[klaiggeb]

AT&T is not too big for his power, Randy.

That's not what Estes nor I were implying.

But he's a mediocre OF with power, and his power numbers play BETTER in, what did Greg Papa call it? Great American Small Park.

He's a Pat Burrell type of player, and he's NOT the kind of player I prefer.

I'd rather have the Hunter Pence/Mac Williamson type.

They both run much better than Duvall, and are, especially in the case of Pence, MUCH better defenders.

Plus, IMHO that Williamson, IF he's given the time, will develop into a solid power hitter who also hits for better average.

Well suited for our place. More suited, IMHO, than Duvall.

boly

[sfgdood]

He's mediocre in the OF because he's a first baseman on a team with Joey Votto. Who do we have at first? Brandon "Judy" Belt...the baby giraffe, which would be great if you hate HRs and love walks. I'd rather have a guy like Duvall that scares the bajeezus out of pitchers with his pop and drives in runs.

BTW, I have loved Mac since his San Jose days and totally agree with your assessment.

[klaiggeb]

You saw Mac play in college, Randy?

He must have been impressive!

With the power that swing generates?

Yeah, he's got some holes, every hitter does, but UNLIKE Parker, I see continued growth in Williamson that I find most refreshing.

boly

[sfgdood]

Not college. High A ball. The San Jose Giants, California League.

[Rog]

He's mediocre in the OF because he's a first baseman on a team with Joey Votto. Who do we have at first? Brandon "Judy" Belt.


Rog -- You continue to badly underrate Belt. Given his defense, I'd rather have him at AT&T than Duvall, who I'll admit has surprised me.




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[klaiggeb]

I'm with Rog on this one, Randy.

I'd rather have Belt at AT&T, too.

Belt, though I contend he's prone to 'brain dead moments," is, IMHO, far superior to Duvall on defense.

boly

[sfgdood]

I'm willing to give up a little bit of defense for the power and run production we're losing with Belt

[klaiggeb]

But Randy, it wouldn't be 'just a little defense,' Duvall for Belt.

It would be a lot of defense.

Take it from an old pitcher... the runs Duvall drives in would not off set the outs Belt saves that Duvall couldn't/wouldn't save.

I've played with good and bad first basemen before...Their defense is UNDER rated.

Gimme brain-dead Brandon.

boly

[sfgdood]

Belt is definitely better defensively, when he doesn't leave his brain in the dugout. I just don't believe the defense offsets the loss in run production and power.

[Rog]

I know Randy doesn't like WAR, but it is perhaps the best known way to value players for their overall play. Baseball-Reference rates Duvall at 2.8 and Belt at 3.2. Pretty close, although the advantage remains with Brandon.

Fan Graphs has Adam at 2.1 and Brandon at 2.9, a bit more difference.

If given the opportunity to trade Belt for Duvall, I don't believe the Giants would take it -- even with Duvall as the much cheaper player.

Where I think Randy's evaluation may go wrong is that while Adam has certainly hit for more power, the number of bases he has accumulated from hits, walks, hbp and sacrifices (218) is less than Brandon's 243, and his outs created at the plate (273) are more than Brandon's 263. More of
Brandon's bases have come from walks than Adam's have, but it's tough not to give Brandon at least a slight edge.

Adam has been the better hitter with runners on and RISP. In fact, he's been a great hitter in those situations while being a poor hitter with no one on. So that brings their hitting pretty close back together, probably with the advantage shifting to Adam.

Which brings us back to fielding, where even those who are critical of Brandon realize he enjoys a very big advantage. Add in that Brandon has been doing it a lot longer at the major league level than Duvall, and it's hard not to give Brandon the edge.

By the way, for anyone questioning Brandon's character, he himself took the blame for the Giants' ponderous start to the second half. For those who question his mistakes, they are frustrating, but not particularly big in the overall scheme of things.

One thing not to forget either is that if the two players switched home parks, Brandon would almost assuredly enjoy the batting edge. Many of his close to league-leading doubles would turn into homers, and some of Duvall's homers would turn into doubles. Likewise some of Brandon's outs would turn into homers, and some of Duvall's homers would become outs.

Let's give Duvall kudos for hitting better at the major league level than most thought. But let's also realize that most teams would prefer Belt over Adam. Even at the higher salary.

The Giants could certainly use Duvall. Although Angel Pagan is having a nice little season at the plate, I would much rather have Adam. But given the choice between Duvall and Belt, I'm almost certain that the Giants prefer Brandon. As do most.

Let's just say that if the Giants had both players, Adam wouldn't beat out Belt for first base.

[sfgdood]

I want a 1st baseman that hits the ball hard...not one that is looking to walk.

[klaiggeb]

Disagree, Randy.

Belt isn't looking to walk, I like his discerning eye.

Was Ted Williams looking to walk?

No.

Yet he took a tremendous number of "ball fours" because he refused to swing at pitches that weren't strikes.

Now I'm NOT comparing Belt to Ted, just making a point about 'pitch recognition.'

boly

[sfgdood]

Don't get me wrong. I also prefer Belt walking to popping up or swinging and missing the high fastballs that he is utterly incapable of handling. I just want a guy that can PUNISH pitchers in a big way for throwing them. I don't consider taking a walk as punishment.

[klaiggeb]

True.

When Belt is in one of his hot streaks, he does punish them.

My problem with Duvall is that he'll never hit for average; I don't see less than .250 as acceptable for a 1Bman.

And with his defensive inabilities, I'll still take Belt, Randy.

boly

[sfgdood]

That's where you and I disagree. I don't care about the BA as much with first basemen. I want the RBI and HRs.

[klaiggeb]

We do agree on that point, Randy; RBIs and HRs.

Remember what I posted that upset Rog so; MY 1st baseman BETTER hit 20 HRs and drive in no less than 80 runs.

If... IF Belt does that, okay.

But those long, long... LONG dry spells, which, to be fair, haven't been as frequent this year, can't continue.

boly

[sfgdood]

It's August 3rd and he has less than 2 months to get 8 HRs and 28 RBI, which would require a much accelerated pace than what we have seen thus far.

[sfgdood]

Meanwhile Duvall passed the 20 HR mark before the All Star break and is just 9 RBI short of 80.

[klaiggeb]

Randy, I know this thread is about Belt... but shouldn't you be critizing Posey for the EXACT same problem?

I mean, seriously, 12 HRs, 50 RBIs?

From the # 4 hitter?

Compared to our "best hitter," Belt's 12 HRs and 48 RBIs don't look that bad.

boly

[sfgdood]

Yes Posey's production is definitely down. The difference is Posey has been there and done it...Belt hasn't.

[Rog]

I want a 1st baseman that hits the ball hard...not one that is looking to walk.


Rog -- Shouldn't we want a good overall batter? Ted Williams would be appalled.

What evidence do you have that Brandon is looking to walk? His line drive rate of 27.3% is easily the best among the Giants' top hitters, and his 35.7% hard hit ball rate is right there with Buster Posey's 36.9% and Brandon Crawford's 36.6%, ahead of Hunter Pence's 32.9%. Those are all good figures, by the way.

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[Rog]

I just want a guy that can PUNISH pitchers in a big way for throwing them. I don't consider taking a walk as punishment.


Rog -- It is if the pitch is out of the strike zone.

I think I have figured out why you don't like Brandon, Randy. You appear to be a "mine is bigger than yours" guy, and thus you miss out on critical nuances. In addition, since Brandon didn't live up to his "his is bigger than yours" projection, he's now a disappointment and a failure, almost no matter what he does.

Why not simply reduce your projection for him like most of the rest of us have done? In other words, be realistic instead of punitive. Brandon is actually having a pretty darn good year. He's a fine fielder, and his .885 OPS is clearly the best on the team.

Time to shed your bias.

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[sfgdood]

It's not bias. I simply think we are being taken for a buggy ride. This guy cant hit homers and doesn't drive in runs and yet we are paying him big money. That's the part I dislike. If he were being paid according to his paltry production, I'd be just fine with him.

[sfgdood]

I want a 1st baseman that hits the ball hard...not one that is looking to walk.


Rog -- Shouldn't we want a good overall batter? Ted Williams would be appalled.

Dood - I dont subscribe to this Bill Jamsian OBP is everything crap. Ted Williams would be appalled at the amount of money Belt is making without hitting more homers and driving in a LOT more runs.

[sfgdood]

I just want a guy that can PUNISH pitchers in a big way for throwing them. I don't consider taking a walk as punishment.


Rog -- It is if the pitch is out of the strike zone.

Dood - a pitch doesn't have to be in the strike zone in order for damage to be done with it.

[Rog]

That's where you and I disagree. I don't care about the BA as much with first basemen. I want the RBI and HRs.


Rog -- And I think that is where you're missing the boat. Regardless of position, I'm looking for the whole package -- which includes fielding, base running and batting average.

What you're in essence saying here is that you don't care how many outs a first baseman makes (or misses defensively) as long as he drives in runs and hits homers. That seems very myopic.




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[sfgdood]

I never said defense wasn't important. I'm merely saying I'd be willing to sacrifice a little defense to get more production. But yes, I do believe some positions need to provide power and RBI. The salary we gave Belt demands that he produce a LOT more than he gives. He's not making a "get on base, table setter" salary.

[Rog]

This guy cant hit homers and doesn't drive in runs and yet we are paying him big money.


Rog -- Brandon isn't making big money for a first baseman. In fact, the Giants signed him to a very reasonable contract. Brandon's closest comp is Freddie Freeman, who is being paid 6/$118. Brandon is being paid 6/$79. Brandon has 10 more RBI's than Freeman this season. Over the past two seasons he has 12 more. Freddie does have six more home runs this season and six more over the past two.

Both are good fielders, although Brandon might hold an edge. Neither is known for his base running, although Brandon has more steals over their careers.

I don't think you understand the big bucks first basemen make. For instance, Albert Pujols is being paid 10/$210 plus a $10 million personal services contract at the end of his career.

In the context of first basemen, Brandon isn't making much at all. Despite his flaws, he's earning his contract and more. Since this subject obviously interests you, you might want to research it before finalizing your opinions. Baseball-Reference shows the contracts for each player at the bottom of his player page.

It's usually best not to go off half cocked.

By the way, the Giants first baseman who is perhaps Brandon's closest comp would be JT Snow. Over his 16-season career, JT hit 189 home runs and drove in 877 runs. Brandon might wind up his career with similar numbers, assuming he plays that long.

In today's game, JT might be making close to $20 million per season. He's almost certainly be making more than Brandon is.

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[Rog]

Dood - a pitch doesn't have to be in the strike zone in order for damage to be done with it.


Rog -- No, but Ted Williams -- perhaps the consensus pick for best hitter ever -- said batters should spit on them. You understand the game, right?

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