2014 (part 1: starting pitching)

[Islandboagie]

The Giants will likely play better for the next 2 months but I don't think the Dodgers will fall flat on their face which is what would have to happen for the Giants to make up the deficit they find themselves in right now.

So with this season a bust, it's time to look forward to next season.

This off-season is the moment we've all been waiting for. Barry Zito's contract will finally be off the books. I don't subscribe to the idea of Zito being a total failure but he certainly hasn't lived up to his paychecks.

Lincecum and Vogelsong are also going to be free agents so that makes 3 spots in our starting rotation that the Giants are going to have to fill. The good news is those 3 will free up more than $40 mil of payroll from this season. (I don't know the exact numbers and I'm not figuring in the raises or arbitration for the other players. Either way we have some money to play with.

Many here are ready to plug in bargain basement starters into the final two spots after resigning Vogelsong. That might make sense if the Giants are looking to bring in a top notch hitter. That's not a bad idea but our ballpark was built for pitching, speed and defense. Plus, I don't really know many big bats that we won't have to bid with large market teams for.

Resigning Tim Lincecum makes sense. There are no noticeably better pitchers out on the market for 2014. Tim will be among the best and is also among the youngest with the most durable arm. I sign Timmy for $25-30 mil for 2 years.

For me that leaves one spot in the rotation to fill.

One name sticks out to me. Josh Johnson. $8 mil with incentives.

[allenreed]

A) You'll never get Timmy to sign for that, unless of course you're talking about giving him $25-30 million each of the two years.
Timmy isn't exactly setting a high bar. There are a number of FA pitchers who can do as good or better for alot less money.
B) Josh Johnson is 1-8, 6.60. What about his year makes you think he would help the Giants?
C) With the performance of Chad Gaudin, there may be only one spot to fill even if we don't sign Tim or Barry.

Are you just messing with us here?

[Islandboagie]

Allen- B) Josh Johnson is 1-8, 6.60. What about his year makes you think he would help the Giants?
C) With the performance of Chad Gaudin, there may be only one spot to fill even if we don't sign Tim or Barry.

Boagie- obviously I'm considering Josh Johnson's career instead of his poor season this year. Josh still has a good velocity and strikeout rate. Btw your comment about Johnson could have been applied to Gaudin's previous two seasons, so Josh turning it around next year is a fairly reasonable possibility, more likely than Gaudin's chance of turning it around this year.

In fact, Mr. Anti-roids...Have you ever sat back and considered why Gaudin is having a bounce back season with his lowest ERA in his career and pitching more innings since 2009? Is he above trying to save his career? We know he's not above getting drunk and groping women in a hospital. This is acceptable behavior that you'd want to plug him into the rotation for next year, but cheating in a game is unacceptable and should be punished with an immediate lifetime ban?

[rxmeister]

That's a very interesting question asked by Boagie of Allen, although I certainly agree with Allen about Boagie's idea of signing Lincecum that cheaply and signing the awful Josh Johnson. You might remember Panda as well be accused of rape last year. And how about you, Boagie, who has talked about Angel Villalona, a possible murderer as a bright young Giants prospect? Is it ok to commit crimes off the field that you get lawyered off as long as you don't cheat on the field?

[Islandboagie]

I don't hold players to a high moral standard like Allen. I certainly respect Allen's view on steroids, but at the same time I recognize the fact that steroids has actually been beneficial to the growth of the sport and continues to not affect the fan attendance. These players aren't saints, they're machines who are fine tuned to compete at the highest level and for years steroids has been just part of the routine. Baseball turned the other cheek for years because they saw a positive outcome in their pocket books. Who's more despicable to you..the young kids who want to be successful and provide for their family, or their handlers who view these players more as livestock with monetary value rather than humans?

While I don't particularly like Alex Rodriguez, i can't hate him. He's a victim of his surroundings. Alex was seen as a stack of money long before he was an adult. The same goes for all these players who were and are being drafted at 17 years old and expected to perform in professional baseball. I don't think their intentions were to hurt Allen's feelings. Steroids is baseball's fault, not Alex Rodriguez's.

As for Villalona. I think we all know about the history of extortion cases in Venezuela and the Dominican republic. It also happened to both Uribes in the Domican and just last year Wilson Ramos was kidnapped in Venezuela to try to extort money from his family. These cases happen far too often for me to assume Angel is guilty.

[allenreed]

Boagie- obviously I'm considering Josh Johnson's career instead of his poor season this year.

Allen- Johnson's career has been notable mostly for being injury prone. Over the last three seasons (including this one) he's 12-23. This year his H/9 are up three over his career average, his HR/9 is more than double his career average, and his BB/9 are higher than his career average.

Josh still has a good velocity and strikeout rate. Btw your comment about Johnson could have been applied to Gaudin's previous two seasons, so Josh turning it around next year is a fairly reasonable possibility, more likely than Gaudin's chance of turning it around this year.

Allen- But Gaudin came at almost zero cost, it was a low risk bet that paid off big. Johnson will not be pitching for less than a million a year.


In fact, Mr. Anti-roids...Have you ever sat back and considered why Gaudin is having a bounce back season with his lowest ERA in his career and pitching more innings since 2009? Is he above trying to save his career?

Allen- Chad being on PEDs is a distinct possibility. In this era, any player being on PEDs is a distinct possibility. In some cases it's not even a matter of saving one's career. Think Bonds did roids to save his career? ARod? Braun?
No one has accused Chad, and no evidence has been brought against him, so I wouldn't just accuse him randomly.


We know he's not above getting drunk and groping women in a hospital. This is acceptable behavior that you'd want to plug him into the rotation for next year, but cheating in a game is unacceptable and should be punished with an immediate lifetime ban?

Allen- All I've heard about Chad's hospital misadventure is a paragraph in the paper. Even in uber PC SF, no one is really talking about it. I don't even know what the final dispensation of the case was? Do you?
It seems that if it were true, more would be being made of it. Would I consider it acceptable behavior? No. But it could be a once in a lifetime mistake. I'm sure many, if not all of us have made those. Cheating at your profession is a conscious decision and involves a concerted effort over a period of time. It shouldn't be rewarded with multi-million dollar payoffs

[allenreed]

Aug 7, 2013 12:27:04 GMT -5 Islandboagie said:

I don't hold players to a high moral standard like Allen. I certainly respect Allen's view on steroids, but at the same time I recognize the fact that steroids has actually been beneficial to the growth of the sport and continues to not affect the fan attendance. These players aren't saints, they're machines who are fine tuned to compete at the highest level and for years steroids has been just part of the routine. Baseball turned the other cheek for years because they saw a positive outcome in their pocket books. Who's more despicable to you..the young kids who want to be successful and provide for their family, or their handlers who view these players more as livestock with monetary value rather than humans?

Allen- Interesting. I like where you decry others for viewing the players as "livestock", while you characterize them as "machines" and say they need "handlers".
Steroids aren't "part of the routine". They're cheating and wrong, (not to mention illegal), and players know that. What about the guys that play clean? Are they somehow not "machines". Are their handlers letting them down? These are reasonably intelligent people capable of making their own decisions. If they choose to cheat, they should have no beef when it comes time to pay for their crime.
Saying they want to provide for their family is no excuse. A bank robber could make the same claim. Should we excuse that behavior as well?

While I don't particularly like Alex Rodriguez, i can't hate him. He's a victim of his surroundings. Alex was seen as a stack of money long before he was an adult. The same goes for all these players who were and are being drafted at 17 years old and expected to perform in professional baseball. I don't think their intentions were to hurt Allen's feelings. Steroids is baseball's fault, not Alex Rodriguez's.

Allen- It's people like ARod who are the most despicable. He was blessed with incredible talent, worked to develop it, and was handed an unbelievable amount of money because he could hit a ball with a stick. He was set for life, as were the next ten generations of his family.
But that wasn't good enough. He had to cheat, and then lied about it. Then, after being caught, and you would think being embarassed, he did it again. His comment about him "fighting for his life" just shows you what an incredibly twisted mindset this guy has. If he never plays another game, he will make $118 million over the next five years, and that's just from his baseball contract. God knows what he will make in investments and such. How is he fighting for his life?

[rxmeister]

Boagie, if you look deeply into the Villalona case, you won't like what you see. While you're right that rich people can get extorted over there, the opposite is true as well, and that is that the guilty can buy their freedom by paying off the cops, judges and witnesses. It looks like Villalona paid a large sum of money to the victim's family to make them write a letter exonerating him.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Lincecum and Vogelsong are also going to be free agents

Ryan -- The Giants hold an economical option on Ryan's services for next season. As we have discussed here, barring injury, he's almost certain to be back.

The Giants control Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong and Gaudin. There is unlikely to be more than one spot open in the rotation.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Tim will be among the best and is also among the youngest with the most durable arm. I sign Timmy for $25-30 mil for 2 years.

Rog -- I'm almost sure that even with a hometown discount, it will take a little more than that to re-sign Tim.

MAYBE the Giants could re-sign Tim for something like 3/$50 with significant incentives.

Here is the irony: If Tim falls flat on his face the rest of the season with the Giants, they will almost certainly be able to re-sign him for less.


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[Islandboagie]

Allen- Chad being on PEDs is a distinct possibility. In this era, any player being on PEDs is a distinct possibility. In some cases it's not even a matter of saving one's career. Think Bonds did roids to save his career? ARod? Braun?
No one has accused Chad, and no evidence has been brought against him, so I wouldn't just accuse him randomly.

Boagie- I didn't accuse, I just asked if you've ever considered that when figuring his role for next year. Whether Chad has juiced or not I think it would be a mistake for the Giants to consider him a guaranteed starter for next year. His career has been too shaky to rely on for playoff caliber team, which I hope the Giants intend to be next year. The suggestions I've heard thus far is just cutting payroll and not much upgrading.

My idea, like I said, was to resign Lincecum, Vogelsong and sign Josh Johnson and keep Gaudin for long relief. I think this would solidify our rotation, give us insurance and cut payroll at least enough to also upgrade somewhere else.

I haven't heard any other viable complete plan. Only how my plan sucks.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- His career has been too shaky to rely on for playoff caliber team, which I hope the Giants intend to be next year. The suggestions I've heard thus far is just cutting payroll and not much upgrading.

My idea, like I said, was to resign Lincecum, Vogelsong and sign Josh Johnson and keep Gaudin for long relief.

Rog -- I have liked Johnson in the past. You may be on to something.

But if Chad continues to pitch as he has, I can't see doing anything but giving him a solid chance in the 2014 rotation. For a while there, he was almost the ace.

I would think the Giants will send Edwin Escobar to the Arizona Fall League, and if they get good reports, he could be the guy who would be called up if Gaudin or one of the other starters falters or becomes injured.

If not, then someone like Johnson would be a good choice -- although I would think he will be look first for a sure starting slot.

I'm not very fond of Kickham or Surkamp, but each will have an additional year of experience and perhaps be better prepared to serve as emergency starters as needed.

Regarding Gaudin, remember that the Giants re-signed Ryan Vogelsong as a starter for two years with an option, after he successfully stepped up into their rotation out of nowhere.

If I were the Giants GM, I would focus on re-signing Pence and/or Lincecum in particular, and would be going after another outfielder as well. Re-signing a controlled player such as Gaudin can help make money available to re-sign the big boys -- hopefully with enough left over for another outfielder and/or Javier Lopez.

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[sharksrog]

The Giants' payroll this season was $136 million. I think they can bring everyone back for about $145 million.

The Giants' payroll didn't move much from 2002 to 2009. They had some higher years in between, but the $82 million payroll in 2009 was barely above the $78 million on 2002.

In 2010, Tim Lincecum became eligible for arbitration, and salaries leaped to $96 million. Since then, the trend has been significantly up. The payrolls since they won their first World Series have been $118, $131 and $137.

$145 should be doable, and a stretch to $150 would seem possible.

The one thing I haven't done here is address the left field position. Just a guess on my part, but I could see the Giants trading two or three young players for a controlled player for the position.

Unless they don't re-sign both Lincecum and Pence, I'm not sure I see them filling left field with a free agent, whose salary might put them out of range. Someone like Ryan Sweeney (just placed on the 60-day disabled list by the Cubs) might be affordable, but you can see that would be bottom fishing.

[allenreed]

I just can't see bringing Johnson in after the dismal year he's had, in addition to his career long injury history. It's just too big a risk. Same with re-signing Timmy. You're talking about spending $20 million a year on what is at best a maybe. For that kind of money, you need more of a sure thing.
Gaudin has certainly earned a full shot at being in the rotation next year. Since he got in there this year, he's been as good as anyone else we've had. If someone hands you a gift, why not take it?
You say Chad's career was too shaky prior to becoming a starter with us this year. What about Vogey? Shaky would have been a charitable way to describe his career prior to becoming a Giant starter. How would you describe Timmy's last two seasons? I would describe them as worse than shaky. Yet you want to spend $20 million/yr on this guy.
Johnson has been 10-22, 4.52 the last two seasons. Pretty shaky. Gaudin has been 9-4, 3.43 over the same period. Better than both Johnson and Timmy. Timmy's making $22 million this year, Josh is making $13.75 million. You're not going to sign either for much less than what they're making now. Gaudin's making $750K. Say you pay him $2 million. How much money are you saving for another starter and perhaps an outfielder that can hit a bit?
I agree with re-signing Pence and Vogey. Hunter wants to play here and Vogey will come pretty cheap. Dump Zito and you have another $13 million to spend. I'd also shop Pablo. The results just aren't what they should be for someone with his talent.

[allenreed]

Aug 8, 2013 12:41:19 GMT -5 sharksrog said:

The Giants' payroll this season was $136 million. I think they can bring everyone back for about $145 million.

Allen- The question is, why would you want to bring everyone back?

[Islandboagie]

Rog -- I have liked Johnson in the past. You may be on to something.

But if Chad continues to pitch as he has, I can't see doing anything but giving him a solid chance in the 2014 rotation. For a while there, he was almost the ace.

I would think the Giants will send Edwin Escobar to the Arizona Fall League, and if they get good reports, he could be the guy who would be called up if Gaudin or one of the other starters falters or becomes injured.

If not, then someone like Johnson would be a good choice -- although I would think he will be look first for a sure starting slot

Boagie- I've spoken poorly of Chad in the last few days but don't get me wrong, he's been a bright spot this year and certainly deserves a chance to get a spot in the rotation. However, I think Chad would be the perfect long relief pitcher. Remember, I'm thinking upgrades here, not just cutting payroll. Having Chad as long relief all season would be upgrading our bullpen as a whole.

Unfortunately there aren't too many quality pitchers available this off-season, so we either have to overpay for mediocrity OR gamble on someone like Josh Johnson returning to form. At least with Johnson we have a chance to get numbers that would be a bargain. If we got someone like Santana or Garza, at best we'd be getting what we pay for.

[sharksrog]

Allen -- Johnson has been 10-22, 4.52 the last two seasons. Pretty shaky. Gaudin has been 9-4, 3.43 over the same period. Better than both Johnson and Timmy. Timmy's making $22 million this year, Josh is making $13.75 million. You're not going to sign either for much less than what they're making now. Gaudin's making $750K. Say you pay him $2 million. How much money are you saving for another starter and perhaps an outfielder that can hit a bit?

Rog -- I don't disagree with your concept here, but when the Giants re-signed Ryan Vogelsong, it was for 2/$8 with a $6.5 option. The market is getting more expensive, so I don't think Gaudin can be signed for $2 million for next season.

The Giants did ladder Ryan's contract though, paying him $3 million the first season and $5 million the 2nd.

Gaudin should be a nice, inexpensive option. I take re-signing him as pretty much a given. I hope I'm not taking that for granted without basis though. I have qualms about re-signing Tim, but it appears the Giants are strongly leaning that way.

And I DID pick an over/under for Tim's ERA beginning with his most recent start at 3.75 and said I would take the under. If he performs that well, he still has risk. But aside from his post-no-hitter start, when he may have been physically and mentally washed out, he's pitched darn well since the beginning of June despite not having the best of luck.

We've taken off in another direction, but no one has spoken to why Tim is doing better. I'll give it a try in a little bit. I left the thread open-ended, but I did have ideas of my own. I suspect others can add other ideas -- especially Boly when he returns.

Alen -- I agree with re-signing Pence and Vogey. Hunter wants to play here and Vogey will come pretty cheap.

Rog -- The Giants are so thin on starting-caliber outfielders that re-signing Hunter is nearly a must. Otherwise they'll need to pick up TWO new outfielders. The Giants don't need to re-sign Ryan; merely exercise their 2014 option.

They might want to extend him this winter so they don't face losing him to free agency a year from now.

Allen -- Dump Zito and you have another $13 million to spend.

Rog -- Actually, it would be a net savings of $11 million compared to keeping him, but you are right that they would be spending $13 million less than this season.

Allen -- I'd also shop Pablo. The results just aren't what they should be for someone with his talent.

Rog -- I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Giants did just that. At this point I think it would be a mistake though. Pablo is having a poor season, he will have just one year left on his contract before becoming a free agent, he's making a relatively small $8.25 million, he's lost a lot of weight and might be serious this time, and the Giants have no replacement.

I can't imagine anyone giving up a lot for one year of his services. And I don't think Joaquin Arias is the answer.

If we go back two years, the Giants dealt from surplus. They had an extra starting pitcher (Jonathan Sanchez), and they turned him into Melky Cabrera. They had a surfeit of relievers, so they packaged Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres for Angel Pagan.

The two possible surplusses I see the Giants as possibly having at this time would be their strong low minor league starters. Perhaps if they packaged one of the lesser rotation lights with Pablo they could get a return.

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[rxmeister]

Trading Pablo when your team's problems is scoring runs makes no sense. He's also shed 19 pounds recently, so he's finally putting in the work. What if you trade Pablo and then lose Pence to free agency? Who do you want to trade Pablo for and who would you replace him with?

[sharksrog]

Allen- The question is, why would you want to bring everyone back?

Rog -- The Giants won't be back completely intact, but it appears they could afford to do so if they choose. That's not a certainty.

If don't believe they made a lot of changes going into 2012, did they? And that worked out pretty well.

If they re-sign both Tim and Hunter as they'd like, it would seem to me their options of change would be limited. Remember too that despite huge starting pitching problems, they were faring well until the platoon of Blanco and Torres began to each play close to every day.

This would have been such a wonderful chance for Gary Brown if he had been ready. The opening is still there, if he could claw his way back to a strong Fresno finish. He's running out of time though. This season he's hitting over 100 points lower than the excellent .336 he hit at San Jose two years ago.

I'm sure Randy thinks I'm simply taking another shot at Gary, but the opportunity for him was indeed THERE. And as Mark pointed out, he hasn't played well enough to even deserve a September callup.

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[sharksrog]

A bit of good news with another position prospect today. Second baseman/shortstop Joe Panik had a homer and a single in five at bats for Richmond today, driving in all four runs in the Flying Squirrels' 4-1 win.

Brown got off to a horrid start this season, then stepped things up, particularly in September when he posted a .910 OPS. But he has fallen off again since the All-Star break. Both in April and since the break, his average has been in the .180's.

Panik's slump came a little later in the season and was just as devastating. Two advantages for Panik though.

He was hitting .320 when his slump began.

He has bounced back since the All-Star break though, and today he bounced back with some much-needed pop.

Don mentioned Joe had been moved back to his original position of shortstop and indicated that could mean the Giants see him as having more of a platoon role rather than being a starter. It could also mean one of two other things:

. Marco Scutaro is signed through 2015, and that would now appear to be Joe's season of arrival. Perhaps the left-hitting Panik might get some at bats to rest Marco.

. They might also be prepping him for a trade. His contact bat would play better at shortstop than at the keystone, so his trade value should be higher if he can show he can indeed play shortstop.

Bud Norris now seems lost, but perhaps the Giants could parlay Panik and a young pitcher into an outfielder under team control for two more seasons.

Don't forget about the waiver wire, either. It's not great being in last place, but it does put on in nice position to pick up a waived player.

[allenreed]

Boagie- I've spoken poorly of Chad in the last few days but don't get me wrong, he's been a bright spot this year and certainly deserves a chance to get a spot in the rotation. However, I think Chad would be the perfect long relief pitcher. Remember, I'm thinking upgrades here, not just cutting payroll. Having Chad as long relief all season would be upgrading our bullpen as a whole.

Allen- If you have a pitcher who can start, win, and maintain an ERA under 3.00, aren't you wasting him in long relief? You can get Machi or Sandy Rosario to pitch long relief.


Unfortunately there aren't too many quality pitchers available this off-season, so we either have to overpay for mediocrity OR gamble on someone like Josh Johnson returning to form. At least with Johnson we have a chance to get numbers that would be a bargain. If we got someone like Santana or Garza, at best we'd be getting what we pay for.

Allen- I'd much rather have Garza or even Santana than Josh Johnson. But there are other bargains out there, and you could also trade for a starter. I don't believe the Orioles have signed Scott Feldman, for example. Paul Maholm may be available.
Getting what we paid for would be a refreshing change. We certainly haven't done that with either Zito or Timmy.

[allenreed]

Rog -- I don't disagree with your concept here, but when the Giants re-signed Ryan Vogelsong, it was for 2/$8 with a $6.5 option. The market is getting more expensive, so I don't think Gaudin can be signed for $2 million for next season.

Allen- I might work on signing him now, rather than wait on him to get FA offers in the offseason. Even if you pay Chad as much as $5 million, the saving will still be substantial.



I have qualms about re-signing Tim, but it appears the Giants are strongly leaning that way.

Allen- What are you basing this on? Unless they've already come to some sort of agreement, they can't possibly know his price.


Allen -- Dump Zito and you have another $13 million to spend.

Rog -- Actually, it would be a net savings of $11 million compared to keeping him, but you are right that they would be spending $13 million less than this season.

Allen- Correct. His salary for next season would be $18, not $20.

Allen -- I'd also shop Pablo. The results just aren't what they should be for someone with his talent.

Rog -- I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Giants did just that. At this point I think it would be a mistake though. Pablo is having a poor season, he will have just one year left on his contract before becoming a free agent, he's making a relatively small $8.25 million, he's lost a lot of weight and might be serious this time, and the Giants have no replacement.

Allen- I didn't say I would definitely trade him. I said I would shop him, and I definitely would let him know he's being shopped. If something overwhelming came along, I'd be willing to be overwhelmed.
While I commend Pablo on the weight loss, I'm not sure during the season is the best time to do it. Losing weight can weaken you, and it seems that Pablo as of late is having trouble getting around on the fastball.

I can't imagine anyone giving up a lot for one year of his services. And I don't think Joaquin Arias is the answer.

Allen- The team that trades for him can always re-sign him.

[allenreed]

Trading Pablo when your team's problems is scoring runs makes no sense. He's also shed 19 pounds recently, so he's finally putting in the work. What if you trade Pablo and then lose Pence to free agency? Who do you want to trade Pablo for and who would you replace him with?

Allen-Pablo's lack of production is one of the reasons we're having trouble scoring runs.
Pablo has lost weight before only to gain it back, and then some.
Pablo's replacement may come in the trade. Again, I didn't say I would definitely trade him, but I would test the waters.

[sharksrog]

have qualms about re-signing Tim, but it appears the Giants are strongly leaning that way.

Allen- What are you basing this on?

Rog -- I'm basing it on the comments Bobby Evans made on Sports Talk Live Tuesday, where he said as much. Perhaps "strongly" is too strong a word, and after not trading him and having more season remaining, the Giants can't realistically say they're going to jettisone him, but Evans indicated the Giants would like to sign him.

At the very least, it strongly appears that they will make qualifying offers to both Tim and Hunter Pence, which makes total sense. The qualifying offer is expected to be between $14 and $15 million, and at this point, you wouldn't mind committing to either player for just a year at that amount. So why not make the offer, ensuring at least a high draft choice out of the situation?

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[sharksrog]

Allen- If you have a pitcher who can start, win, and maintain an ERA under 3.00, aren't you wasting him in long relief?

Rog -- Very good point, Allen. The only way I could see getting even close value would be as a Super Reliever.

Allen -- You can get Machi or Sandy Rosario to pitch long relief.

Rog -- Rosario seems to be earning himself a more important role, but either Machi or George Kontos would seem candidates for the job. I think the Giants would like a southpaw in that role (since most of their starters are right-handed), and Surkamp, Kickham or even Dan Runzler might be able to fit that role.



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[sharksrog]

Rog -- can't imagine anyone giving up a lot for one year of his services. And I don't think Joaquin Arias is the answer.

Allen- The team that trades for him can always re-sign him.

Rog -- Of course they can. And they might even gain an edge in that regard. But any acquiring team would have to be prepared for just one year of Pablo's services -- and he's had a history of injury and is coming off a poor season.

Remember the old adage that it's better to trade a player twoyears too early than a year too late? I think the trading ship may well have sailed regarding Pablo.

Unless they can get more for him than I believe they can, I would hold onto him and hope he can bounce back.

You had the right idea with regard to trading Tim. But I think we're a little late with Pablo. And again, how do you replace him at third base and in the batting order?



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[sharksrog]

Trading Pablo when your team's problems is scoring runs makes no sense. He's also shed 19 pounds recently, so he's finally putting in the work. What if you trade Pablo and then lose Pence to free agency? Who do you want to trade Pablo for and who would you replace him with?

Allen-Pablo's lack of production is one of the reasons we're having trouble scoring runs.
Pablo has lost weight before only to gain it back, and then some.
Pablo's replacement may come in the trade. Again, I didn't say I would definitely trade him, but I would test the waters.

Rog -- I would continually be testing the waters with virtually EVERY player on the roster. But realistically, what do you think the Giants could get in return for Pablo? If the Giants are truly going to trade Pablo, now might be the time, since a team might gamble that he would be their final piece.

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[sharksrog]

By the way, I think of shopping a player as actively seeing what you can get for him -- with the idea of getting rid of him if you can get a reasonable deal. You consider it to be looking for an unrefusable deal.

I can see why we would disagree. As I mentioned, under your definition, I would almost ALWAYS be shopping almost ALL my players.

[allenreed]

I consider it letting other teams know he's available, and seeing what comes back. As is always the case, if the deal improves the club, make it.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- My idea, like I said, was to resign Lincecum, Vogelsong and sign Josh Johnson and keep Gaudin for long relief. I think this would solidify our rotation, give us insurance and cut payroll at least enough to also upgrade somewhere else.

I haven't heard any other viable complete plan. Only how my plan sucks.

Rog -- At this point I think it is difficult to HAVE a viable complete plan. The one thing I would argue with your plan is that it would seemingly take up too much money to re-sign Pence, let alone another outfielder.

Remember, I'm at $145 million to bring back the team intact -- and I might be low. But which players would you get rid of to fund the $12-$15 million or so it would take to sign Johnson?

I think if the Giants were going after Johnson, it would need to be at the expense of Lincecum. Otherwise, I think they would be hamstringing themselves. Your plan would seemingly put over $60 million into the rotation -- in addition to the $7 million they would owe Barry Zito.

Can a team truly afford to spend close to half its budget on starting pitchers alone? Not if you're the Giants, and you're paying Posey and Pagan about $20 million and are trying to get together $15 million or more to re-sign Hunter Pence.

The Giants could have well over $100 million in their rotation, Posey and two below All-Star caliber outfielders. That would leave perhaps $40 million for the other 17 players.

Throw in Sandoval, Scutaro, Vogelsong, Affeldt, Romo and Casilla, and you're probaby already close to the budget -- with 12 more players to add.

Gaudin, Bumgarner and Mijares would clear an additional $10 million, and why would Gaudin want to return if he weren't going to be in the rotation?

Throw in Lopez and a left field platoon, and there's close to another $10 million.

I like Josh Johnson -- or at least I once did -- but how can the Giants accomplish what they need to if they add him and re-sign Tim?

By the way, my initial plan would be to start by trying to bring the roster back close to intact. I would be looking for a new left fielder and a tweak or two, but that's pretty much all the money there is likely to be.

The one big thing I might NOT do would be to bring back Tim -- and you know how much I love the guy. The problem is that he will almost certainly be paid something for his two Cy Young seasons, and while I see him as bouncing back, I don't think he is still a pitcher who will consistently contest for the Cy.

Including his rookie season, he has now been a somewhat serious candidate for four Cy's in seven seasons. Even that isn't as consistent as I would like to see for the money he seems likely to make. But if not for the past two seasons -- and at least three tough times that come to mind in his first four seasons -- I would think he was worth what he's likely to get, and probably more.

But Tim has had significant periods of struggling time in at least four of his seven seasons.

That's not to say he wasn't a great pitcher. But wouldn't almost all of us settle for his being very good again -- not necessarily great or outstanding or possibly not even excellent?

I hope the Giants are able to re-sign Tim without paying too much. But to me, that would likely require a significant hometown discount.

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