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Post by sharksrog on Jun 21, 2013 17:48:29 GMT -5
Allen- Yes. Paying large for FAs has worked wonderfully. Ask Miami or the Angels. The better way is to shop smart, like the Cards and Braves do. Rog -- IMO your problem is that you would be shopping cheap, not smart. Tell us right now which free agent pitchers you would pursue and how high you would be willing to go. Feel free to adjust your figures all the way through the end of the season. Then let's see how it would have worked out for you. One advantage the Giants do have right now is that they provide a desirable place to play. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2WtTAS7cO |
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Post by allenreed on Jun 21, 2013 18:52:37 GMT -5
Allen -- there's a lottery chance that he might come back. Rog -- I don't think there is much chance Tim will bounce back to his Cy Young form, but just what is it that you think is so much different now than in 2011 that would prevent him from bouncing back to the mid to high three's in ERA. My points about Tim are twofold. First, even with his present 4.50+ ERA, his good health history makes him worth more than 1/$6. Second, there is certainly more than a lottery chance that he will bounce significantly. The guy went from 2.74 to over 5.00 for no clear reason. That tells me there is a decent chance he will improve -- especially since he has shown improvement each of the past two seasons as the season has gone on, and put up an excellent postseason in 2012. Allen- There's different ways of looking at things, isn't there? You say Tim fell for no clear reason, and that's why you think he'll come back. For the same reason, I don't think he will. He has no idea what went wrong or how to fix it. What's more, he isn't particularly willing to make any significant changes. He's unwilling to leave his comfort zone. You act like these guys you bring up are going to be saviors, when in reality they have been pitchers at more or less the level Tim is right now who have suddenly gotten hot this season. Allen- No, I don't. I act like they're pitchers who can do better than Tim at a much lower price. Which is exactly what they are. I agree with you that the Giants should be looking at these guys and others who might be available. The injury to Gaudin makes the pitching depth even less. But I strongly believe you overrate many of these other guys while underrating Tim. IMO you are falling victim to the good partial season these guys have put up. Let's see if it continues or if they regress to their means as is usually the case. Allen- Even if they regress somewhat, they'll still be better than Tim. Even if they regress all the way to Tim's level, they'll still be cheaper. Btw, we'll have to put Marquis' implosion on hold for at least another start. He had another fine outing last night, going six innings, giving up two earned runs, striking out five and walking just one. Your boy Puig did hit a first inning homer off him. Although Jason got no decision, the Pads won 6-3, and are now 11-4 in Jason's starts. By contrast the Giants are 7-7 when Tim takes the ball. Not so good for Feldman, who gave up five in 5.1 innings against the Cardinals, and was beaten by Lance Lynn. Scott walked four, K's four and gave up six hits. |
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Post by allenreed on Jun 21, 2013 18:55:08 GMT -5
Allen- Yes. Paying large for FAs has worked wonderfully. Ask Miami or the Angels. The better way is to shop smart, like the Cards and Braves do. Rog -- IMO your problem is that you would be shopping cheap, not smart. Tell us right now which free agent pitchers you would pursue and how high you would be willing to go. Feel free to adjust your figures all the way through the end of the season. Allen- This would be about the fourth time I would be doing this Rog. Sorry, you'll have to go back and read for yourself. One advantage the Giants do have right now is that they provide a desirable place to play. Allen- For pitchers. |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 8:23:51 GMT -5
Allen-Perhaps. Just not to me. You are aware that people value things differently, right? Would a snowblower be worth more to me, or a guy that lives in Montana? Rog -- Poor analogy. A high percentage of teams would like to sign a free agent starting pitcher. The percentage of people in the market for a snow blower is very low. In addition, most people with a need for a snow blower have already purchased one whereas, "you can never have too much pitching." Allen -- Again, you're way too hung up on this $6 million figure. I could have said $8, $10, or $12 and it would be the same Rog -- The difference would be that the higher figures would be more reasonable when compared to what other free agent pitchers receive. For you to say that you would pay only 1/$6 for Tim shows one or more things: . You significantly undervalue him. . You significantly undervalue others. . You expect him to pitch clearly worse than he has the past two seasons. . You are greatly over-emphasizing this year's half season in your evaluation of pitchers. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2WtU4WbPp |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 8:35:50 GMT -5
Allen -- You can get any number of guys to come in and pitch better Rog -- You don't know how many of these guys will pitch better than Tim next season, nor what they will cost. Remember, I'm not suggesting the Giants re-sign Tim. You say I'm a mother bear protecting her cub, but I suggested two winters ago the Giants trade Tim. I have suggested for close to a year now that the Giants were highly unlikely to re-sign Tim, since he would be too expensive. What I'm suggesting is that your 1/$6 valuation of Tim shows extremely poor judgment. Once a person gets into eight digits, at least an intelligent argument can ensue. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2Wx3zhOTZ |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 8:43:41 GMT -5
Allen- Beltran is a prime example of what I'm talking about. Moderately priced, and you don't have to sign him for alot of years. Rog -- Carlos has turned out to be a bargain, although calling him moderately priced at $13 million seems a stretch. The reason Carlos was available for so little was his injury history. Let me ask you this: Based on their injury histories and age, which player would you have thought had the greater chance to be injured during 2012 or 2013 -- Angel Pagan or Beltran? Let me ask another question: Were you all over the idea that the Giants should re-sign Carlos at 2/$26? I don't think I can remember you recommending any free agent in eight figures. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2Wx5jMmjF |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 8:50:15 GMT -5
Allen- Again, I would be the Cards, you would be the Cubs. Rog -- You have no clue what I would be. I have pointed out that the Giants should carefully evaluate ALL these guys (and more), but that I wouldn't necessarily want to sign any of them at the price they will command. By the way, Allen, when Beltran was a free agent, he had played in 81, 64 and 142 games the previous three seasons. In three years he had missed well over a full season of games. If the Giants had re-signed the 34-year-old for 2/$26 and he had become re-injured, it seems likely you would be criticizing the Giants for making the deal. You would probably have once again questioned their medical staff. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2Wx7ZFhUc |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 8:54:12 GMT -5
When we get to this off-season, make up a list of how much you would be willing to pay for the various free agents. See how many of them you would be able to sign at your figure. Allen- Thing is, I don't have to sign "many" of them. Just one or two. Rog -- But if you show us how much you would pay for these guys, see how many you get, and then look at the number of those you would have acquired who went on to pitch well, that number could easily be lower than one or two. If you picked our top offer for each of five pitchers and then looked at the list of those who both would have been acquired by you and then gone on to perform well, I suspect we might very well be looking at a donut-like digit. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2Wx90HE9R |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 8:58:17 GMT -5
Allen -- It isn't that I wouldn't pay for any FA. just not Tim. Rog -- The amounts you have said players are worth have been very much on the low side. Perhaps you're beginning to get a better grasp on the situation. That is really all I ask of you. In your mind it seems that the umpires stink, writers know no more than you or I, and the players are overpaid. I believe you lack perspective. At least Boly admits he's a cup-half-empty guy. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2WxA07uWj |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 9:00:01 GMT -5
If Boly is a cup-half-empty guy, I would categorize you as a cup-is-broken guy, Allen.
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 9:04:41 GMT -5
Rog -- You would likely take the Giants' window of opportunity and inadvertently shut it. Allen- Tim Lincecum isn't what's going to keep that window open. Signing him for what he will command is just a waste of money. Rog -- Unless he gives the Giants a very, very big hometown discount, there is a high degree of probability you will be right here. But the Giants could pay him far more than the 1/$6 limit you place on him and still be taking a prudent risk. This is far from proof and perhaps not even indicative of a true trend, but I notice that since around the time we began this discussion, Tim has outpitched most of these other pitchers -- most of whom would likely command above 1/$6 if free agency began right now. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1801&page=3#ixzz2WxBS1UKk |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 9:23:34 GMT -5
Allen- There's different ways of looking at things, isn't there? Rog -- No. But there are different ways of looking at things. Allen -- You say Tim fell for no clear reason, and that's why you think he'll come back. For the same reason, I don't think he will. He has no idea what went wrong or how to fix it. What's more, he isn't particularly willing to make any significant changes. He's unwilling to leave his comfort zone. Rog -- I understand your point here, Allen. Where we primarily disagree is that you would pay no more than 1/$6 for Tim, and I think that is absurd. You seem to think 1/$6 will buy a lot more than it will. In Tim we have four things that combine to make him easily more valuable than 1/$6: . He's already pitching at a higher level than that. . There is some degree of possibility that he will return to a form somewhere between what he was and what he is now. . In his brief trial as a reliever, he was marvelous. . He has a near-perfect injury history and has taken the ball every turn but one over his career. For gosh sakes, Allen, just admit that you undervalued him and that compared to what other pitchers will receive this winter, at considerably more than 1/$6, Tim would be a good risk. You have indicated that you would pay easily more than 1/$6 to several guys whose career ERA's are pretty close to Tim's ERA this season. Unless you are prescient, how can that show good judgement? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1801&page=4#ixzz2WxCogAnARead more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1801&page=4#ixzz2WxCdgWNz |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 9:27:13 GMT -5
Allen -- You act like these guys you bring up are going to be saviors, when in reality they have been pitchers at more or less the level Tim is right now who have suddenly gotten hot this season. Allen- No, I don't. I act like they're pitchers who can do better than Tim at a much lower price. Which is exactly what they are. Rog -- There is an age-old question of how do you value players in terms of evaluating their future performance? Do you go with their recent history or weight in the past as well? Most agree that a weighted average system of some type has the best chance of working. You are taking pitchers with career ERA's that are close to Tim's ERA this season but who are having seasons with ERA's closer to Tim's career ERA and saying they are clearly worth more than Tim. Based on baseball history, the odds are pretty good that you will be proven wrong. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1801&page=4#ixzz2WxHLmUwo |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 9:34:51 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 9:36:03 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 9:58:25 GMT -5
Clearly Allen and I have a difference of opinion as to what Tim Lincecum is worth, but what tack should the Giants take with regard to free agent pitchers over the winter (assuming they don't acquire one at the trade deadline)?
First, let's set the scene:
. The Giants have set the bar quite high, so while they would survive a down season, it would interrupt the excellent momentum they have at present.
. They have several good starting pitcher prospects in Class A ball -- likely ready between 2015 and 2016.
. Starting pitching is the most desired commodity -- and therefore the most expensive in terms of value and risk. Building pitching from within is easily the best way to go (although also a very difficult and slow method).
Which I believe makes the following prudent:
. Excercise Ryan Vogelsong's 2014 option. This seems the clearest of all.
. Show Tim Lincecum some love, but figure the market will badly outbid you for his services.
. Continue to evaluate Chad Gaudin and any other internal options.
. Look closely at Barry Zito's $11 million net option. It fits the time frame for the arrival of the minor league replacements.
. Look closely at other free agent options.
. Look closly at trade options that don't involve mortagaging the future.
. Don't forget pickiing up a few bargain basement pieces, an area in which Brian Sabean previously has had good luck.
When we see what action the Giants take at the trade deadline and who are the available free agents at the end of the season, we can re-evaluate the situation.
The Giants' starting pitching this season hasn't been close to the big asset it has been in previous seasons. As in evaluating an individual pitcher, how heavily do we weight their recent performance compared to their performance over the past few years?
Right now the starting pitching is a problem. Two months from now it might not be. But barring a significant change in the meantime, it appears prudent to pursue the type of trade deadline deal Sabean specializes in -- getting talent that will perform well in exchange for little in prospects.
That's tough to do with starting pitchers, particularly in a season in which starting pitching seems even more in demand than usual. There is also the question of how much of Sabean's success has been due to great scouting and how much has been due to great luck.
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donk
New Member
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Post by donk on Jun 22, 2013 13:25:14 GMT -5
Rog -- One advantage the Giants do have right now is that they provide a desirable place to play. Allen- For pitchers. Rog -- Especially for pitchers, but even hitters like to play for a winner. dk..and what great hitters flocked to the Giants after they won?  |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 22, 2013 16:01:35 GMT -5
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 12:42:21 GMT -5
For you to say that you would pay only 1/$6 for Tim shows one or more things:
. You significantly undervalue him.
Allen- Your opinion.
. You significantly undervalue others.
Allen- No. How I value Tim has nothing to do with how I value anyone else.
. You expect him to pitch clearly worse than he has the past two seasons.
Allen-No. I expect him to pitch about the same.
. You are greatly over-emphasizing this year's half season in your evaluation of pitchers.
Allen- No. I expect them to regress. But not to Tim's level.
What it means is that I'm tired of watching Tim struggle, and I don't particularly like the way he's handling it. He seems slow to realize that he's not going to be able to recapture his past magic, and to make the required radical changes.
Also, I don't care for his refusal to sharpen other aspects of his game to help compensate for the decline in his natural ability. If you dismiss Tim's past, and look solely at the kind of pitcher he is now, then subtract for his poor work ethic and refusal to accept his decline, his worth (at least to me) comes in at about $6.
The other guys may be older, they may not have had as much previous success, but they know who they are and what they can do, and they know how to perform the fundamental tasks of their job. Oh, and one more thing, they'll be alot cheaper.
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 12:47:54 GMT -5
Let me ask you this: Based on their injury histories and age, which player would you have thought had the greater chance to be injured during 2012 or 2013 -- Angel Pagan or Beltran?
Allen- I would imagine Carlos, though I'm not sure I see the relevance of the question.
Let me ask another question: Were you all over the idea that the Giants should re-sign Carlos at 2/$26? I don't think I can remember you recommending any free agent in eight figures.
Allen- I really don't remember that option being presented. But if it had, I'm not sure. Frankly, I don't think Carlos liked it here very much. I don't think he really wanted to play here. If I remember, the Giants didn't even contact Carlos in an effort to re-sign him.
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 12:50:32 GMT -5
Allen- Again, I would be the Cards, you would be the Cubs. Rog -- You have no clue what I would be. I have pointed out that the Giants should carefully evaluate ALL these guys (and more), but that I wouldn't necessarily want to sign any of them at the price they will command. Allen- Every indication seems to show that you would throw heaps of money at mediocre players simply because alot of other people are, like the Cubs. You have no clue as to what price they would command. |
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 12:56:19 GMT -5
Allen -- It isn't that I wouldn't pay for any FA. just not Tim. Rog -- The amounts you have said players are worth have been very much on the low side. Perhaps you're beginning to get a better grasp on the situation. That is really all I ask of you. Allen- Interesting. When I said what I would pay for Feldman and Marquis, you said it was too high. In your mind it seems that the umpires stink, writers know no more than you or I, and the players are overpaid. I believe you lack perspective. Allen- I believe all three (in most cases) are proven facts. Although I've never said any were true in all cases. At least Boly admits he's a cup-half-empty guy. Allen- And I've admitted to being a skeptic and a cynic. I'm very slow to take someone's word for something simply because that person holds a certain position. It's probably why I was on to Obama before most people were. Some still haven't gotten it. |
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 13:08:19 GMT -5
Rog -- You would likely take the Giants' window of opportunity and inadvertently shut it. Allen- Tim Lincecum isn't what's going to keep that window open. Signing him for what he will command is just a waste of money. Rog -- Unless he gives the Giants a very, very big hometown discount, there is a high degree of probability you will be right here. But the Giants could pay him far more than the 1/$6 limit you place on him and still be taking a prudent risk. This is far from proof and perhaps not even indicative of a true trend, but I notice that since around the time we began this discussion, Tim has outpitched most of these other pitchers -- most of whom would likely command above 1/$6 if free agency began right now. Allen- I certainly don't think he's outpitched Marquis. Feldman's had a rocky June after a great May, whereas Lincecum's had a nice June (only one win though) after a horrid May. Feldman and Lincecum have identical 1-2 records in June, while Marquis is 3-0. The Padres have won 10 out of Jason's last 11 starts. Is that called giving your team a chance to win? On the other hand the Giants have lost eight out of Tim's last 11 starts. |
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 13:20:08 GMT -5
Rog -- I understand your point here, Allen. Where we primarily disagree is that you would pay no more than 1/$6 for Tim, and I think that is absurd. You seem to think 1/$6 will buy a lot more than it will.
Allen- Again, you choose to misunderstand. I didn't say 1/$6 is what I would budget to replace Tim. I merely said that is all I would offer Tim, knowing full well he won't take it. Bottom line: I don't want him back.
For gosh sakes, Allen, just admit that you undervalued him and that compared to what other pitchers will receive this winter, at considerably more than 1/$6, Tim would be a good risk.
Allen- Again, if that helps you, fine. I freely admit that I am undervaluing Tim in relation to what he almost certainly be offered by some moronic GM looking for a quick fix.
I've stated time and again that the 1/$6 only represents Tim's worth to me, and that's simply because I wouldn't want him.
You have indicated that you would pay easily more than 1/$6 to several guys whose career ERA's are pretty close to Tim's ERA this season. Unless you are prescient, how can that show good judgement?
Allen- Maybe I'm prescient. (see Dickey, RA).
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 13:24:48 GMT -5
[You are taking pitchers with career ERA's that are close to Tim's ERA this season but who are having seasons with ERA's closer to Tim's career ERA and saying they are clearly worth more than Tim. Based on baseball history, the odds are pretty good that you will be proven wrong.
Allen- First of all, you're totally disregarding the price factor. Second of all, what do you see in Tim that indicates he will return to his former glory? Is it the loss of velocity, the loss of command, or his inability to pinpoint what it is he needs to fix, or his reluctance to make any significant changes? Maybe it's his continued disregard and disdain for learning the fundamentals of his job.
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 23, 2013 14:22:02 GMT -5
Allen- Maybe I'm prescient. (see Dickey, RA).
Rog -- R.A. has been very inconsistent thus far, but I have to ask you what were the tell-tale signs that led you to believe R.A. would decline?
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 23, 2013 14:33:08 GMT -5
[You are taking pitchers with career ERA's that are close to Tim's ERA this season but who are having seasons with ERA's closer to Tim's career ERA and saying they are clearly worth more than Tim. Based on baseball history, the odds are pretty good that you will be proven wrong. Allen- First of all, you're totally disregarding the price factor. Second of all, what do you see in Tim that indicates he will return to his former glory? Rog -- This is old ground, Allen. First, I have said that I likely wouldn't sign ANY of these guys at the prices they would likely command now. My question is how you can value Tim at only 1/$6, which almost anyone familiar with the situation would say was a huge undervaluation, even with Tim's decline of the past season and a half. Second, I have made it clear I don't expect Tim to return to his former glory, but something in between seems reasonable. In fact, his ERA this season is already quite a bit lower than last year, and it stands at a very nice 2.92 for the month of June. This month Tim has pretty much pitched well or gutted it out. If you can't see any improvement, shame on you. Since the All-Star game last season, Tim's ERA (including the postseason) hasn't been too far above 4.00. And yet you say you value him clearly lower than guys whose career ERA's aren't that low. IMO you undervalue Tim and overvalue some other guys. I think the odds are quite good that the future will demonstrate that. Tim had a 6.42 ERA at last year's All-Star break and has fashioned a 4.03 mark since, and you don't see any improvement? Not looking very closely, are you? I really don't get you, Allen. You get an opinion in your mind, and suddenly facts don't seem to matter? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1801&page=4#ixzz2X4KvzqOb |
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 15:54:41 GMT -5
Rog -- R.A. has been very inconsistent thus far, but I have to ask you what were the tell-tale signs that led you to believe R.A. would decline?[/quote]
Allen- To call Dickey inconsistent (or even very inconsistent) is exceedingly kind. As for why I thought he would decline, we've been over this numerous times. When I saw him in the WBC, his knuckleball just wasn't doing anything. What's more, I thought his year last year was more than a bit of a fluke, and I thought no longer pirching at CitiField would hurt him more than a bit.
Or maybe I'm just prescient.
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 15:58:32 GMT -5
Tim had a 6.42 ERA at last year's All-Star break and has fashioned a 4.03 mark since, and you don't see any improvement? Not looking very closely, are you?
Allen- Is that worth $20 million /season to you?
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Post by allenreed on Jun 23, 2013 16:19:16 GMT -5
[You are taking pitchers with career ERA's that are close to Tim's ERA this season but who are having seasons with ERA's closer to Tim's career ERA and saying they are clearly worth more than Tim. Based on baseball history, the odds are pretty good that you will be proven wrong. Allen- First of all, you're totally disregarding the price factor. Second of all, what do you see in Tim that indicates he will return to his former glory? Rog -- This is old ground, Allen. First, I have said that I likely wouldn't sign ANY of these guys at the prices they would likely command now. Allen- How can you say that when you have no idea what that would be? My question is how you can value Tim at only 1/$6, which almost anyone familiar with the situation would say was a huge undervaluation, even with Tim's decline of the past season and a half. Allen- Talk about old ground. Once more. I don't want Tim. Second, I have made it clear I don't expect Tim to return to his former glory, but something in between seems reasonable. In fact, his ERA this season is already quite a bit lower than last year, and it stands at a very nice 2.92 for the month of June. Allen- And still just one win. I know you'll give me the run support refrain, but think about it a bit more. Even in his last good year, Tim had a losing record. Last year, he led the league in losses. This year he's 4-7. More than likely, this will be the fourth straight season Tim reaches double figures in losses. And it isn't as if he's pitching on a bad team. Perhaps he's just unlucky. This year the Giants are 7-8 in Timmy starts. Last year: 14-19. 2011: 17-16. That's 38-43. I'm going to want more than that for what Timmy will want to be paid. |
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